US Elections 2016 Part I: The Debates & Primaries/Caucus

[solomon]

Been a while.

I think I am gonna play scandinavian and just write in Donald Duck on my ballot. Or Kalle Anka as they like to call him.

At first I derided the non voting 40 percent now I kinda understand where they come from, some of em anyway.

[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by solomon

Been a while.

I think I am gonna play scandinavian and just write in Donald Duck on my ballot. Or Kalle Anka as they like to call him.

At first I derided the non voting 40 percent now I kinda understand where they come from, some of em anyway.

you don't vote you don't count

all those young people who are rallying for sander is finding out. making a post on Reddit is great but nothing beats going out to vote if you want your guy to win.

[Sofen]

Seriously though. Don't vote for Sanders. Unless you want to be the new immigration Sweden nr.2 Beta mode. Just saying. Hopefully Hillary will win the poll and then Trump will win.

[risingstar3110]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

you don't vote you don't count

all those young people who are rallying for sander is finding out. making a post on Reddit is great but nothing beats going out to vote if you want your guy to win.

Frankly I'm already tired of these pieces of recycled media propaganda without baseless fact. Here is statistics of South Carolina, the youth-don't-go-out-to-vote-states:

• Age 17-29: ~17% of the population, the amount of votes in this age group is 15%
• Age 30-44: ~23% of the population, produced 20% of the votes
• Age 45-64: ~22% of the population, produced 47% of the votes
• Above 65: ~13% of population, 19% of votes

I don't know how old are you, but by what standard the whole block of Under 45 is considered to be "young voters"? By CNN audiences standard, maybe?

Even if assume that under 45 is "young". Then do you know what would happens if the "young voters", the under 30, have turned up at the same rate as the highest 45-64 block? Simple math, Bernie would win a 'massive' 30% in SC comparing to the 27% he actually got.

What if all of the under 45 was turning out at the same rate then? He will win 29% instead of 27%. Big fucking deal

Conclusion: "Young voters don't turn up so X can't win" is stupid myth invented by media trying to explain all of the disinterest in US political process from those who born after 1970s. Just by chance it fit your agenda of "oh, Bernie young voters are all key board warriors" perfectly.

[GreyZone]

Trump is close to 50% in Georgia right now. Going by the rules if he is getting over 50% in the end, it turns into a winner-takes-all state (same happens if both Cruz and Rubio fall short of the 20% threshold), which would pretty much be an unexpected gain in his favor that would exceed most expectations (polls had him at merely at 36% in average) and is probably worth more than winning Texas.

That is not the case on the Democrats' side, otherwise it would look even worse for Sanders because in a 1on1 race it would be more about winning states rather than %tage of voters in the current case of proportional distribution. Due to this Sanders at least still has a chance, even though it's quite small.


EDIT: Seems that didn't happen. Both Cruz and Rubio also seem to barely hold on being over the 20% threshold.

[risingstar3110]

Originally Posted by GreyZone

Trump is close to 50% in Georgia right now. Going by the rules if he is getting over 50% in the end, it turns into a winner-takes-all state (same happens if both Cruz and Rubio fall short of the 20% threshold), which would pretty much be an unexpected gain in his favor that would exceed most expectations (polls had him at merely at 36% in average) and is probably worth more than winning Texas.

That is not the case on the Democrats' side, otherwise it would look even worse for Sanders because in a 1on1 race it would be more about winning states rather than %tage of voters in the current case of proportional distribution. Due to this Sanders at least still has a chance, even though it's quite small.


EDIT: Seems that didn't happen. Both Cruz and Rubio also seem to barely hold on being over the 20% threshold.

It worked both way for Sanders. In fact winner take all for the whole nomination may give Bernie better chance, considering there are more states that he will lose by large amounts than states where he can win by large amounts

Would kill his momentum badly through

[risingstar3110]

Btw this is the most adorable way to follow Super Tuesday results:

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/n...state-by-state

[Ithekro]

Stupid question time: Why are so many people saying they will leave the country if Trump becomes President? What's the point? What logical reason could they have for leaving assuming there are n state sponsored round up/killings like the 1930s/40s Germany?

[KiraYamatoFan]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

Stupid question time: Why are so many people saying they will leave the country if Trump becomes President? What's the point? What logical reason could they have for leaving assuming there are n state sponsored round up/killings like the 1930s/40s Germany?

Can you seriously imagine what kind of social and geopolitical climate there would be with that clown in power? Also the last time someone who was that borderline clownish (although that's still miles apart from Trump) became President was Ronald Reagan, and I'm sure many people aren't particularly fond of Reagan's legacy at all. So you can imagine how worse that would be under Trump.

Besides, plenty of Americans left the US for other countries and became expats during the Vietnam War and during the George W. Bush years. It wouldn't be a first time if that happens.

[SeijiSensei]

While I had little in common politically with Reagan, he was the governor of California for eight years. Most of that time he had to negotiate with a Democratic legislature. Trump seems to think the US can be run like Fascist Italy where policies follow whatever "Il Duce" says. Apparently he wasn't paying too much attention in school when they were discussing the concept of "checks and balances" among the three branches of the Federal Government.

Just tonight during his press conference, Trump said about Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, "I don’t know him well, but I’m sure I’m going to get along great with him. And if I don’t, he’s going to have to pay a big price.” Apparently Trump doesn't understand that the Speaker of the House is, when it comes to domestic politics, pretty equal to the President. The Constitution places the spending power in the House giving the Speaker enormous power to control domestic policy. Reagan and then-Speaker Democrat Thomas P. "Tip" O'Neill were pretty far apart ideologically, but they managed to negotiate and compromise over the years.

Take the border wall, for instance. When Mexico refuses to pay for it, as everyone knows it will, where will Trump find the money to build it? He'd need to get Congress to pass a bill that would either pay for the wall out of tax revenues or borrowing, or he'd need to have Congress agree to overturn NAFTA so he could impose a tariff on Mexican products. (All this ignores the fact that a large chunk of Mexican exports to the US are produced by subsidiaries of US firms like Ford.) So who would ultimately be paying for the wall? Americans, either as taxpayers or as consumers or both.

[solomon]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

you don't vote you don't count

all those young people who are rallying for sander is finding out. making a post on Reddit is great but nothing beats going out to vote if you want your guy to win.

Fair point, but why patronize a bunch of subpar restaraunts at a failing mall? The entire system needs an overhaul in my opinion. From campaign finance reform, to gerrymandering, to the two party mafia and even the radical idea of NOT HAVING A VOTE ON A FRICKIN TUESDAY.

[KiraYamatoFan]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

Most of that time he had to negotiate with a Democratic legislature. Trump seems to think the US can be run like Fascist Italy where policies follow whatever "Il Duce" says. Apparently he wasn't paying too much attention in school when they were discussing the concept of "checks and balances" among the three branches of the Federal Government.

Just tonight during his press conference, Trump said about Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, "I don’t know him well, but I’m sure I’m going to get along great with him. And if I don’t, he’s going to have to pay a big price.” Apparently Trump doesn't understand that the Speaker of the House is, when it comes to domestic politics, pretty equal to the President. The Constitution places the spending power in the House giving the Speaker enormous power to control domestic policy. Reagan and then-Speaker Democrat Thomas P. "Tip" O'Neill were pretty far apart ideologically, but they managed to negotiate and compromise over the years.

Take the border wall, for instance. When Mexico refuses to pay for it, as everyone knows it will, where will Trump find the money to build it? He'd need to get Congress to pass a bill that would either pay for the wall out of tax revenues or borrowing, or he'd need to have Congress agree to overturn NAFTA so he could impose a tariff on Mexican products. (All this ignores the fact that a large chunk of Mexican exports to the US are produced by subsidiaries of US firms like Ford. So who would ultimately be paying for the wall? Americans, either as taxpayers or as consumers or both.)

Yikes. Just the fact that we can compare Trump to Mussolini is already a scary thought in itself. I guess they will need to pass all presidential candidates through a written exam on how the country's federal government works in the future.

[SeijiSensei]

I see Trump as a cross between Mussolini and Don Rickles myself.

YouTube

https://youtu.be/F4m5HLVwsco

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YouTube

https://youtu.be/s-s7eG2ckN4

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[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by solomon

Fair point, but why patronize a bunch of subpar restaraunts at a failing mall? The entire system needs an overhaul in my opinion. From campaign finance reform, to gerrymandering, to the two party mafia and even the radical idea of NOT HAVING A VOTE ON A FRICKIN TUESDAY.

Not voting isn't the way to overhaul the system. Neither is posting about it on the internet.

[solomon]

I am aware of that. The first thing to do upon returning home to America is to become an activist for overturning citizens united.

Till then, meh. Write in vote.

[risingstar3110]

So summary of Super Tuesday (the delegates math have to wait till votes in):

On the GOP:

• Trump won Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Vermont, Virgina
• Cruz won Alaska, Oklahoma, Texas
• Rubio won Minnesota

Summary: Trump still have crushing win in most of the state. Cruz solid win in Texas however soften the blow for him

On the Democrat:

• Bernie won Colorado, Democratic Abroad (likely), Minnesota, Oklahoma, Vermont (shut out Hillary)
• Hillary won Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia

Summary: Bernie still being killed at South, but all of the states he pushed for, he won by quite comfortable amount. The biggest contest ended up to be Massachusetts where Hillary ended up edge Bernie out by 2%. So some won, some lost for both side in term of narratives.

[Sofen]

Hillary still has the hold. Please let it count so that Trump may triumph. Either way interesting to follow.
Don't know if the source is 100% legit. But it says live. But from the stats it looks like Hillary is winning more or less.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/primaries

[GDB]

Originally Posted by KiraYamatoFan

Yikes. Just the fact that we can compare Trump to Mussolini is already a scary thought in itself. I guess they will need to pass all presidential candidates through a written exam on how the country's federal government works in the future.

Well, the fact that he retweeted a Mussolini quote recently doesn't help the comparison.

[risingstar3110]

Originally Posted by GDB

Well, the fact that he retweeted a Mussolini quote recently doesn't help the comparison.

Maybe it was a cry for help

Like he started running never expected to win this much. And the more crazy thing he say, the more the GOP base love him. And now half of the countries will want his head on the stick if it's getting too obvious that he did it for the lol.

(Mostly J/k of course, but you know there is a potential of truth in there)

[Tiberium Wolf]

Originally Posted by KiraYamatoFan

Yikes. Just the fact that we can compare Trump to Mussolini is already a scary thought in itself. I guess they will need to pass all presidential candidates through a written exam on how the country's federal government works in the future.

That means all of them will fail. They can't even remember 3 agencies of government (Rick Perry).