2013-05-07, 08:12 | Link #32221 | |
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It's possible there was a reason why she didn't, something that is common knowledge in the future but unknown to us as readers. For example, maybe Ange is aware that at almost every press conference on the matter, whoever was speaking for the police was suspiciously nervous and dismissive, convincing her that Eva bought off the police to stop looking. Thus, she believes the police are a worthless source of information. However we don't know that, and Ange doesn't tell us that specifically, so it's less a catbox around the investigation and more a catbox of Ange's own making for no particular purpose but to inconvenience the reader. We know that common knowledge exists that is often hidden from us. For example, the explosion's assured occurrence is well-known in the future but was carefully sidestepped in Alliance. But the difference here is that anything that happened before the explosion is permanently lost and there are no known witnesses subsequent to Eva's death. There are plenty of witnesses and remaining pieces of information in the world beyond Rokkenjima, most of which probably weren't destroyed. If those things still exist, it should be possible to check them, but we can't. If those things don't exist, that's interesting and highly suspicious information, but we'll never know what it is. It's not a catbox because of the actual circumstances of the investigation. It's a catbox because the author doesn't want to tell us. I don't see how that's in any way equivalent, given that Ange has no particular reason to avoid or hide information that might give her the closure she's seeking. She was willing to "share" with the reader special information known only to her (Maria's diary); why would she deliberately ignore information that could help her?
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2013-05-07, 19:21 | Link #32222 | |
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The message should be important to her as it proves that whoever wrote it was closely connected with Maria at least and defined herself as Beatrice then... she drops investigation. I mean, the only lead she had that someone else might be involved in her family murder, who might have manipulated Maria into giving her help, who could have been behind the bribes and she... just drop it? She doesn't even wonder who could have written it, only why. |
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2013-05-09, 05:13 | Link #32223 | |
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She also says very early in EP4 (during her conversation with Okonogi I think) that the police did investigate several leads, but were mainly aiming to prove the blame put on Eva. In the end they were unable to produce any solid evidence for a actual murder plot. It's also hinted again and again that the existence of two conflicting message bottles (with the possibility of more existing) made it very unlikely to be either a murder plot nor an actual description. I'm not saying that this is what would happen during any police investigation, but looking at a number of unsolved cases even today, it is very fascinating to see what leads are actually followed up on and which are not. Also, I looked this up in some books on constitutional laws in Japan and apparently it is against constitutional rights to confiscate personal possessions even in a murder case, unless they are illegally held objects from the beginning. So one could even assume that the police just did not have any chance to look at Maria's diary that easily. |
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2013-05-09, 08:15 | Link #32224 |
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But that diary belongs to a dead person. Surely they have the authority to just look through it.
I find it a bit strange that they can essentially detain you indefinitely for questioning but can't keep your writings long enough to read them or make copies.
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2013-05-09, 13:47 | Link #32225 | |
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There was ample ways to obtain handwritten evidence from Ushiromiya Maria, but as long as no police officer took a closer look into said diary there would have been ample evidence in her school to access. Finding the parts where Maria talks about Beatrice AND feature writing by "Beatrice" (which could very likely be just that one page about the Mariage Sorciere) has a very low likelihood if you don't know what you are looking for. Article 35 of the Japanese Constitution reads: The right of all persons to be secure in their homes, papers and effects against entries, searches and seizures shall not be impaired except upon warrant issued for adequate cause and particularly describing the place to be searched and things to be seized, or except as provided by Article 33. (Sub-clause) Each search or seizure shall be made upon separate warrant issued by a competent judicial officer. Also interesting is a sub-clause on Article 38: No person shall be convicted or punished in cases where the only proof against him is his own confession. Which would basically disable the Japanese police to do anything in the case of "Beatrice's confession" |
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2013-05-09, 14:13 | Link #32226 |
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I hate to wade into a matter in which I am not fully licensed or qualified, but in general I think you're misinterpreting the way legal process would work in this matter. The warrant provision in the Japanese constitution is essentially similar to the Fourth Amendment to the United States Constitution. In fact, it's almost exactly the same:
The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized. As the story itself suggests, the message bottle was retained for some time before its release when by your logic it ought to have been given to Eva (as it was located on what is essentially now her property). Except I don't think that's how it actually works. The key distinction here is the thing you quoted, "except upon warrant." If the police are conducting an investigation, they are likely to obtain a warrant for any information they might consider relevant, and unless Japanese law is wildly different from American law (and I would venture to guess it is far, far more judicially permissive to investigators), that warrant will be issued. At that point, even if the property is returned to next of kin, it can be reclaimed by police for investigative purposes as long as it matches the specific and proper description in the warrant. The message bottle was probably considered evidence and was retained through a warrant, but eventually released when police couldn't find anything useful to it. For them to have not checked Maria's diary, however, means more that they probably didn't consider it necessary or worthwhile to obtain a warrant, not that they wouldn't be allowed to see the thing. The diary was assuredly catalogued and inventoried along with the stake and other items that were handed over after the incident; the police know they found it. So the only explanation is that either nobody saw anything of interest at the time when they looked it over or they never considered it to be a viable lead to begin with and thus saw no reason to obtain a warrant to search it. However, I think it is a near certainty that they obtained warrants for some things, like the financial records of the adults. And a judge absolutely would have granted it to them. Eva could've perhaps destroyed some evidence between the time of it being handed over to her and the point at which investigators might turn up with a warrant. We don't know of any instance in which she did so, and in fact we have evidence that she preserved information and evidence in the form of her own diary. If she did turn over anything potentially incriminating to her, it apparently wasn't sufficient for any charges. If she'd destroyed something the police later had interest in, she'd probably be in far greater trouble than if she'd just kept it, unless she was paying them off. But again, we have no evidence of this happening, just a big blank spot. Also you are entirely misinterpreting the relevance of Article 38, in that there is none; "Beatrice" is presumed dead, so they wouldn't be trying to obtain her conviction anyway, just investigate her information to determine whether she might be a deceased culprit and thus close out their investigation. Even then, the article does not assert that you cannot use a confession in proceedings, only that you cannot use a confession alone. The confession could presumably be used to, as an example, substantiate motive or back up the idea that the person behind "Beatrice" knew enough about the island to have control over the explosives and potentially detonate them. Also, Maria's diary existing is actually supplementary non-confessional information which could probably work as the cornerstone for getting that confession into evidence. Never bet against a competent prosecutor, is what I'm saying. It's far more likely that the investigators simply didn't consider some of those things relevant or important. In the case of Maria's diary, I can actually understand this; it would require exhaustive perusal of the diary of a nine-year-old to find potentially missable script in a different person's handwriting. In the case of some of the other things, like whether Kanon legally even exists, it becomes immensely sloppy to even contemplate that they'd overlook it, and it seems like information that would be remarkably well-known and extremely suspicious, at least to Witch Hunters.
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2013-05-09, 23:45 | Link #32227 | ||
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I think we are probably on the same page when saying that they didn't see any possible gain in obtaining the diary of a 9 year old, especially if no proper analysis of it happened before. Like I said before, searching the diary for important clues requires a certain insight that police officers on the scene would likely not have possessed. It's again one of these Umineko'ish one-in-a-million chances of somebody actually doing the right thing in the right moment. Quote:
Maria's diary could work as evidence, though couldn't a proper attorney plead for mental instability and therefore impartial evidence in the case of that diary? If we go by how the manga depicts it, the pages from where "Beatrice" teaches her dark magic start looking like the rambling of a mad woman, barely readable, clearly emotionally upset, lashing out at everybody. Wouldn't it incriminate Maria more than "Beatrice"? The only known entry from "Beatrice" is the Marriage Sorciere one and everything around that time that Maria writes about meeting her witch friends is perfectly harmless as well. Then when her classmates start mocking her it starts degrading into darker territories and finally when Rosa destroys Sakutaro she breaks and starts writing about wanting people to die. What about the explosives? You might get people to talk about them, but 40 year old torpedoes below an island are not quite safe anyway, so their mere existence doesn't proof an immediate crime I'd say. The "trigger story" wouldn't produce much evidence, as there is no way to actually go and see that trigger system, it could probably waved off as one of the many crazy fabrications about Rokkenjima and the Ushiromiyas. And concerning connecting said "Beatrice" to an actual person on the island, it would prove hard even with the evidence of a woman living on Rokkenjima until 1967, considering that Shannon was officially not born until 1969 and (if he exists legally) Kanon not until 1970 (if I remember correctly). |
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2013-05-10, 08:29 | Link #32228 | |||||
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We don't know the purpose behind the "Beatrice" facade, but the point is that as a strange lead police would be obligated to do their best to try to figure it out. After all, if "Beatrice" was the culprit, and did commit a crime, but died doing so... well, case closed. The nutjob who wrote these message bottles did it, nobody to prosecute, everybody can go home. Quote:
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The ep8 manga also suggests the clock bomb trigger thing was known to some people who were Kinzo's business associates. It's certainly possible to dismiss it as just some rumor... unless you're the police and you're investigating an island that just exploded. Does this prove criminal activity? No, but in and of itself it's certainly circumstantial evidence. Notably, you can make a very intriguing logic chain for an Eva culprit by arguing:
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Either way, as I said, if the servants can be interrogated they'll probably mention somebody who was pulling pranks or wandering the mansion at night. Assuming those stories are credible and multiple people can back them up, you can at least narrow down the probable age and body type of that person. Maria may have even let slip descriptive information in her diary. At the very least, you could probably guess "it's a younger woman." Well, there are only two younger women present on the island with any regularity who were also present that weekend: Shannon and Jessica. Narrowing it down to two subjects who can then be investigated seems reasonable. You probably wouldn't find anything on either of them to suggest criminal activity, but then again... I mean somebody's name was used to establish those bank boxes.
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2013-05-10, 12:17 | Link #32229 | |||||
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It was mentioned that the case against Eva was basically dropped because, even though she was considered a suspect in the beginning, they couldn't produce evidence of her planning anything out of the ordinary when heading to the last family conference. The same could be said for Shannon, because there would be no evidence of her entertaining any moves outside Rokkenjima, except her holiday with George. I think even the bank account was installed by Genji for her. Had she really planned this as a way to get towards the money, she and George should have survived. Even more, the author of the message bottles seems to hold an intense hatred for Shannon and Kanon (no matter who they were) antagonizing them in a degree that's not easily explainable. Quote:
Yes, you could end on the agreement that "a nutjob who actually believed in a witch came close to Maria and finally blew them all up", but several things just don't end up with that solution. Which is why I think it is not entirely unthinkable that they'd leave the case undisclosed. Going by what I said above, about incriminating evidence, Kyrie is actually the one with the highest amount of "preparation" going into her departure towards Rokkenjima. She not only left her daughter at home, it might have even been possibly to produce evidence that the 3 siblings and their spouses were in a discussion before heading to Rokkenjima, the son of her husband suddenly returning after a 6 year absence. It is not that hard to understand why so many people in-universe seem to believe in at least a Kyrie culprit theory. Quote:
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The strongest argument against Eva culprit actually being what Okonogi also brought up, the death of Hideyoshi and George and the decline of Eva's mental state following their funeral. Yes, you could argue irrational acting in a moment of high stress, but this are all very hypothetical scenarios. Quote:
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2013-05-10, 12:50 | Link #32230 | ||||
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I'd also question it somewhat in that Battler hasn't lived with Kyrie very much and I'd find it hard to believe she could convince him to help her commit premeditated mass murder just because he's her (as far as the entire world knows) stepson. Their only connection is through his father... and it's well-known that Battler is extremely upset with his father, and has been for six years. Surely people who knew Battler at school and wherever his grandparents lived would vouch for his behavior leading up to that point, or point out how infrequently he actually spent time with them, and how he thought of his father. Quote:
So it's a non-starter, but on the other hand, it's a very odd rumor to hear about. "That guy whose house blew up? Yeah, he said on several occasions that he has a way to blow his house up, and sometimes he deliberately flips the 'blow my house up' switch and sits there staring at it while searching for inspiration." Hell, that might be strong evidence for an accident: Kinzo went down to his secret room and flipped a switch and sat there thinking and dropped dead of heart failure. Eva followed him, found him dead, and took his ring, then went to explore the rest of the area before reporting back to the others about it and, unaware of the trigger mechanism, wasn't able to disarm it. It makes about as much sense as anything else.
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2013-05-11, 10:08 | Link #32231 |
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Haven't posted here in forever.
Thought I'd share this thought : Arc 7 tea party is probably showing us a naked version of the story. The fantasy is removed, and so is the mystery aspect (as in closed room murder, there's a few mysterious elements in the TP still). Something like it could be the primary form of most arcs, but turned into a mystery with long time delays between the murders, closed room created and all. |
2013-05-12, 18:52 | Link #32232 |
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Well, it's not like that's wrong. I would recommend reading through Our Confessions, though, if you haven't already, because it's pretty much what you described. Beatrice going through the very bare scenario, setting up accomplices, alibis, maneuvering, how each death was done, and hidden, etc., and ALSO the narrative considerations of who was alive at what time, and the fantasy laid on top of all that.
On an unrelated note, before I go off on a tangent, is there a consensus of some sort that when Yasu used magic for the first time in EP7, the answer is something like "Yasu quickly replaced Berune's keyring with her own, which was missing it's Master Key, since it had been placed in Berune's locker. This way, she didn't have to worry about the stiffness or noise of working the keys behind Berune's back. Of course, this required the prank to be classified as premeditated revenge, and not a spontaneous urge, as was depicted." I was trying to relate the fact that our arguments about Kanon not making sense are reasonable, and Berune's arguments for why her key couldn't have gone missing are also reasonable, and yet her key was missing nonetheless. |
2013-05-13, 04:59 | Link #32233 | |
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Something can still be called a spontaneous act, even though it predates the resulting events by a longer period of time, as long as the individual is not given clear incentive or chance to change his or her actions. Yasu exchanged the keys beforehand, at least before the inspection, but she did so more of a spontaneous urge to cause mischief, like her superiors did unto her back in the days. Her goal was not clearly motivated revenge, but to play around, which caused Berune to be scolded. This is just one possible way to explain what was going on. |
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2013-05-13, 05:57 | Link #32234 |
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Fairly new here but be tender
About the topic of truth and our confessions, we can see it as additional gameboard. Because I am not big fan of Yasu being a killer, we can see all the boards as additional hints towards his worldview thus making our confessions story that should not be interpretated literally. What about if the entire our confessions is a story like the ones in the bottles, fantasies on how things could have happened or a way to went anger? Of course I understand that good old Ryu meant our confessions as an answer, but it is not necessarily the truth what happened on the island. And I am too lazy to skim trough the text again but wasn't it hinted very subtly in the end of the text that there is something more to our confessions or an additional interpretation that could be applied to the story? |
2013-05-13, 06:36 | Link #32235 |
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Well, I don't think anyone thinks OC is an accurate account of what actually happened, given the lack of any survivors and that the whole structure of it makes it pretty clear it's a work of fiction-within-fiction.
The way I see OC is that it was meant to clarify some specifics about the how-dunnit for the gameboards, while also making the point that the how-dunnit isn't really what matters. Hence why it's said that reading OC will bring you to an understanding of two of the three layers of Beatrice's story, but the third is something you have to reach yourself. |
2013-05-13, 06:45 | Link #32236 | |
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What is interesting is how Yasu actually kills them in Our Confession, while in ep 6, someone (Erika) Interrupted it and became the culprit herself. I take this as an additional hint - That someone actually did hijack her "Gameboard" in prime. |
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2013-05-13, 08:44 | Link #32237 | |
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I still laugh at the toilet thing though. Would've liked to have seen Battler's reaction to that.
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2013-05-13, 09:08 | Link #32238 | |
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Technically it really is just another game like Legend or Turn, we could just call it Inferno of the Golden Witch (regarding the clear allusion to fire and explosions due to the new demon) and continue it. Actually I'd kinda like to do that...anybody willing to help? Regarding that I'd even divide the first 4 Episodes into two sections. The first 2, Legend and Turn, are clearly geared towards being orthodox mysteries with a very clear-cut culprit in mind. Banquet and Alliance on the other hand play a lot more with the element of chaos and the game being taken over by an outside force. In Banquet the game being handed to EVA and her taking over in a fashion that is to the distaste of even Beatrice, because she fears this will alienate Battler. In Alliance it is Kyrie's group breaking out/Jessica and George fighting back, which actually creates a large amount of chaos. So the idea of the game being hijacked, or at least not proceeding to "Beatrice's" liking is not unlikely. |
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2013-05-13, 10:20 | Link #32239 |
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Well, I've discussed at length how improbable it is that such scenarios would go as intended. Even OC makes me question things, given how she sort of just explains the situation to her chosen accomplices and invites them to participate and they're like "Yeah, that sounds totally reasonable." I get that they're desperate, but I'm not sure they're that desperate, and I find it hard to believe they'd say and do nothing to try to stab her in the back once they're out of her sight and hearing (and the nature of her accomplice system basically requires this; she cannot be present with them most of the time).
Consequently, I have to think that if she tried an actual series of murders, it would be hijacked and not to her benefit (because let's face it, she's too naive); if she tried fake murders, it could also potentially be hijacked or misinterpreted. I also think it's a very strong possibility that Battler, George, and Jessica would all be disgusted by the very idea of murdering anyone for any reason... unless one of them was the sort who would actually claim to be okay with that (George). If we could find someone with appropriate motive (George) and imagine them handed the opportunity Erika is handed in ep6, it's possible to imagine them turning a harmless mystery game into an actual series of murders with the intention of scapegoating Yasu. After everything goes awry, she decides she's okay with being scapegoated, and Battler and Eva are both in their own way also okay with it. Her plans only work because they're a story. The whole "nobody gets wet in the rain" thing. Even implementing a fake murder mystery game would be hard to swallow in reality; assuming only Battler wasn't in on it, I still have trouble believing people could be convincing enough that he'd never catch on.
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2013-05-13, 14:05 | Link #32240 |
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To be honest umineko is filled with people I have hard time believing to be accomplice or to say "okay, murder is fine". That way OC and the take on fake-game has probably more potential than actually telling accomplice that they are involved in murder. But the thing is I don't believe any of the gameboards could have been achieved with accomplice thinking he/she is not part of a murder scenario.
Let's think about episode 2 and fake kanon. If we believe Yasu to be culprit and do the killings, I find it pretty unbelievable to even consider guy like Gohda going with the murders. Imo Gohda is one of the guys that seemed always pretty honest and straightforward despite being a dickhead. And if we believe even any part of meta and killings happening with people in the same room, it would be pretty hard to hide the fact that people in fact got killed. I don't see how scenarios like this could be achieved with joyous co-operation. But then we can always say that Yasu had a bomb and forced people to co-operate. But still... Even if OC is very close to the truth of the gameboards and intended as a type of a deconstruction, there are factors included that don't fully convince |
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