Anime DVD/BD Sales in Japan: Discussion

[Triple_R]

Well, Yuri!!! on Ice sold exceptionally well. Eggplant has it listed for the 2nd half of 2016, so I guess its 1st volume was released in 2016.

From what I noticed, in scrolling over Eggplant's 2016 posts, the three biggest TV show sellers are Yuri!!! on Ice, Osomatsu-san, and Love Live Sunshine. The biggest seller overall, by a massive margin, is the Girls und Panzer movie.

I haven't seen Osomatsu-san, but I've heard it's a comedy show. Well, one thing all of these big sellers have in common is being at least somewhat lighthearted and comedic. Maybe that speaks to the current purchasing preferences of anime DVD/Blu-Ray buyers? With the possible exception of Osomatsu-san, there's also a competition and/or sports aspect to these big sellers.

After five big sellers (if you throw in the One Piece movie), there does seem to be a big sales drop-off, unless I missed something while I looked over Eggplant's two posts for 2016. There are some shows that sold decently well - Re:Zero, Macross Delta, Hibike Euphonium Season 2, and Vivid Strike are four I took note of - but there are a lot of shows that did very poorly. Flip Flappers is unfortunately one of them, which I find very sad to see.

And yes, like SeijiSensei noted, 2017 is not yet off to a good start for sales. Given the stark divides between a few big sellers, and everything else, I wonder what impact that will have on which anime shows get produced in the future.

[Guardian Enzo]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

A year later and the first reports for 2017 suggest hardly anyone is buying discs any more. Even selling 1,000 copies seems like a bar too high for most series to meet. Uta no Prince Sama is the striking exception, but most series on that list like Flip Flappers (839 copies on average), Classicaloid (235), or Trickster (200) can hardly even be breaking even. It makes me wonder how much longer original series like Flip Flappers, which have no other obvious sources of revenue other than disc sales and licensing fees, will continue to be made.

Yuri on Ice is an original too. As long as some of them hit big, I think studios will keep trying to strike gold.

[SeijiSensei]

Yuri on Ice also had a larger studio, MAPPA, behind it, one that can likely absorb losses better than tiny upstarts like Studio 3Hz, the creators of Flip Flappers.

Without spending the time poring over past years' data, it does seem to me that there are fewer and fewer series in the mid-range of disc sales. The market seems more bifurcated between a few big hits and a lot of shows that no one is purchasing. From my understanding rentals traditionally drove the demand for discs in Japan as much as otaku purchases. Are rental outlets in decline? Is streaming finally catching on? Enzo, you're closer to this than I am. Any insights into the dynamics of the market for discs?

[Guardian Enzo]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

Yuri on Ice also had a larger studio, MAPPA, behind it, one that can likely absorb losses better than tiny upstarts like Studio 3Hz, the creators of Flip Flappers.

Without spending the time poring over past years' data, it does seem to me that there are fewer and fewer series in the mid-range of disc sales. The market seems more bifurcated between a few big hits and a lot of shows that no one is purchasing. From my understanding rentals traditionally drove the demand for discs in Japan as much as otaku purchases. Are rental outlets in decline? Is streaming finally catching on? Enzo, you're closer to this than I am. Any insights into the dynamics of the market for discs?

Well, in the first place I'm not sure how big or flop-proof MAPPA is - yeah, they have Maruyama behind them but they're still basically a new studio formed to try and do non-commercial "independent" works.

I would agree that there's a general decline in break-even or mildly profitable shows, though you still see a share of them in the 3-6K range. What I think is really happening is that a higher and higher percentage of shows are targeted at more and more specific slivers of the potential audience - it's clear the production committees are trying to identify a specific 10K buying pool and hope they hit it. I think that's self-defeating in the long run - it's transparent. And what's resulting is a largely cynical body of shows that are mostly being ignored by buyers.

As for rentals, I don't honestly think they've been a major part of the commercial equation for a few years. Streaming revenue and international licensing are more significant these days (though disc/merch sales and with certain shows, promoting the source material are the biggest pieces).

[kencana]

Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo

Well, in the first place I'm not sure how big or flop-proof MAPPA is - yeah, they have Maruyama behind them but they're still basically a new studio formed to try and do non-commercial "independent" works.

Flip Flappers is an original anime from a relatively new studio without a big name director and voice actors. Or maybe yuri doesn't sell. Yuri Kuma Arashi, Sakura Trick, Aoi Hana, etc etc all bombed. Idk.

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by kencana

Flip Flappers is an original anime from a relatively new studio without a big name director and voice actors.

This probably explains it's sad sales performance, yeah. Good point.

Or maybe yuri doesn't sell. Yuri Kuma Arashi, Sakura Trick, Aoi Hana, etc etc all bombed. Idk.

Love Live, Madoka Magica, Nanoha, Saki, and Symphogear have all sold well to extremely well, and all have heavily implied yuri.

So I think that what hurt sales in the cases you mentioned above is probably something other than yuri. Yuri Kuma Arashi's plot and setting maybe was a little too confusing/symbolic even for many hardcore anime fans (this may also have been a sales issue for Flip Flappers). Sakura Trick and Aoi Hana kind of represent opposite extremes on quick/steamy vs. slow/innocent. Perhaps most yuri fans prefer a happy medium between the two extremes.

[Guardian Enzo]

I would humbly argue that perhaps a reason those shows didn't sell is that they weren't all that good. But I suppose looking at what does sell pokes a few holes in that argument.

I actually think Girlish Number - in its dramaticized way - offers a respectably accurate look at the commercial side of the equation. Production Committees are running the show here. They aren't selling an anime, they're selling a package - an experience. The seiyuu are a big part of it, the music is a big part of it. They know in advance which stores are going to be their big outlets, which publications are going to be their mouthpieces. It's all about building a composite to attack the specific subset of the buying pool you're trying to target.

[kencana]

Originally Posted by Triple_R

Love Live, Madoka Magica, Nanoha, Saki, and Symphogear have all sold well to extremely well, and all have heavily implied yuri.

I guess yuri subtext sells. But full blown yuri where the main girl actually fall in love, confessed and kiss another girl? Hmmm.... even in BL, subtext or close male friendship (Free, Osomatsu-san, etc etc) sell better than canon gay. That's why I was surprised that Yuri!!! on Ice and Doukyuusei sell really well.

Originally Posted by Triple_R

Perhaps most yuri fans prefer a happy medium between the two extremes.

Yuri also has the intriguing problem of not having a unified audience, so what appeals to the straight men, straight women and lesbian may differ significantly, which splits an already niche audience up further. Maria-sama ga Miteru, for example, leans toward romantic drama for female viewers to sympathize with while Valkyire Drive Mermaid is yuri aimed at men. Yuri themes don’t consistently appeal to a large female audience, nor do they appeal to a large male audience. In effect, not only is the audience for yuri is smaller than the audience for yaoi; it’s also splintered. I guess it's a bit difficult to satisfy both genders of the viewers.

[IceHism]

Originally Posted by Triple_R

This probably explains it's sad sales performance, yeah. Good point.




Love Live, Madoka Magica, Nanoha, Saki, and Symphogear have all sold well to extremely well, and all have heavily implied yuri.

So I think that what hurt sales in the cases you mentioned above is probably something other than yuri. Yuri Kuma Arashi's plot and setting maybe was a little too confusing/symbolic even for many hardcore anime fans (this may also have been a sales issue for Flip Flappers). Sakura Trick and Aoi Hana kind of represent opposite extremes on quick/steamy vs. slow/innocent. Perhaps most yuri fans prefer a happy medium between the two extremes.

The subtext is what is selling, not the actual thing. The nice thing about subtext is that you can choose to focus on it or not if you don't want to. The show won't confirm it for you.

[Maxulous]

YKA wasn't all that difficult to understand, especially if you didn't rage quit after a few episodes. Idiosyncratic shows rarely enjoy broad appeal.

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo

Well, in the first place I'm not sure how big or flop-proof MAPPA is - yeah, they have Maruyama behind them but they're still basically a new studio formed to try and do non-commercial "independent" works.

They also made Shingeki no Bahamut Genesis for cygames and Comcast, both of whom have deep pockets. There is a sequel coming out soon.

As for rentals, I don't honestly think they've been a major part of the commercial equation for a few years. Streaming revenue and international licensing are more significant these days (though disc/merch sales and with certain shows, promoting the source material are the biggest pieces).

Streaming has come fairly slowly to Japan, though, right? Stories I have read suggested that the small size of Japanese homes discouraged collecting tapes and discs and encouraged rentals. Streaming overwhelmingly beats rentals by this argument. Is there a Japanese Crunchyroll with the same broad selection of weekly shows? Or do people still record shows off-the-air? Do their television providers archive anime for later viewing, like "On-Demand" does in the US?

I watched all of Girlish Number the other night and agree that it probably paints a more realistic look at the industry than SHIROBAKO. Everything about the show they produce is mediocre except perhaps the seiyuu, but what matters is the marketing machine behind the series. I pity novice seiyuu who can't sing very well these days. They have fewer and fewer roles available as it becomes the norm in shows with a cast of girls to expect them to sing the OP/ED songs as well as act. Luckily, as one character in GN remarks, the songs aren't that hard.

[Cloudedmind]

I would say good marketing is almost better then having a good show. (I'm probably biased though because I work in marketing. :P) You could have a mediocre to OK show, but if you market it well, might actually make some money. Most anime are pretty much marketing tools themselves.

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by Cloudedmind

I would say good marketing is almost better then having a good show.

That's pretty much the perspective of Girlish Number. Lots of effort went into putting the seiyuu in front of their fans or, more in this case since the actors were newbies, in front of the fans of the also mediocre light novel, at live events and on the radio.

[Reckoner]

We have seen a lot of examples of recent times where the first disk is bundled with some live event for an anime, it does well and then the proceeding disc sales are doing poorly in comparison.

[0utf0xZer0]

Originally Posted by Reckoner

We have seen a lot of examples of recent times where the first disk is bundled with some live event for an anime, it does well and then the proceeding disc sales are doing poorly in comparison.

I've heard live events are now something like 30% of industry revenue... admittedly from a tweet without citation:
https://twitter.com/crazynabe/status/832199066117238785

But I can actually buy it given how soft the disc market looks to be going. (That, and having seen acts like KOTOKO, Luna Haruna and Elisa at Pacific Northwest area cons, I get the appeal.)

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

Streaming has come fairly slowly to Japan, though, right? Stories I have read suggested that the small size of Japanese homes discouraged collecting tapes and discs and encouraged rentals. Streaming overwhelmingly beats rentals by this argument. Is there a Japanese Crunchyroll with the same broad selection of weekly shows? Or do people still record shows off-the-air? Do their television providers archive anime for later viewing, like "On-Demand" does in the US?

I can't remember where I read about it, but my understanding of the Japanese streaming market is that shows typically air on multiple streaming platforms, as opposed to the international model where there's competition for exclusives. No idea what the video quality or convenience is like, translations - still one of CR's weak spots in my experience - obviously is not going to be an issue.

I do recall one exchange student I meet some years back saying that he actually found it easier to be an anime fan in Canada than Japan due to CR but I think that was around 2011-2012 so obviously the anecdote is way out of date.

I am unsure how Flip Flappers was received in Japan - it's way down the list of most popular fall 2016 shows on AniKore.jp but this has also been true of some shows that have sold very well in Japan, including several top ranked bishounen series and Love Live.

One part of the disc market I seldom see discussed is box set rereleases. Some series. such as Space Dandy and Kill Me Baby, sold way more in this format than they did in initial release, albeit probably partly due to discounting (sub $150US pricing on the box sets). And June 2016 saw Aria the Origination manage to sell nearly 22K box sets at $240-ish US prices, which makes me wonder if this part of the market isn't softening up quite the same as first run releases are.

I would be interested in knowing if the buyer profile for the two kinds of releases is dramatically different. My experience with the anime fandom is that quite a few fans do NOT watch a whole lot of anime "as it airs", AS's demographics are probably very skewed in that regard.

[Guardian Enzo]

Flip Floppers tanked on disc, too. It's hard to say whether a show was well-received in broad terms, but using all conventional measures that one was not popular in Japan.

Streaming has come a long way in Japan, but it's certainly a small part of the financial equation still. What hasn't gotten enough attention is Avex Pictures vexing and seemingly self-defeating decision to forbid the export of Blu-rays and DVDs it licenses. Could have a significant impact on the international market, which would be bad for the already under-fire creative side of the business.

[IceHism]

https://blog.sakugabooru.com/2017/03...nime-business/

interesting article
Production IG is funding most of the upcoming mahoutsukai no yome tv series despite not animating it. (Wit is)

They’ll create the business scheme, handle marketing, and sell rights. They’ll handle TV rights, domestic streaming rights, merchandising rights, event rights, tie-in rights, and international rights for the series. All of those are now thought to be worth more than home video sales for a late night show. That’s how the industry is changing as a combined result of declining home video sales and increase on streaming revenues. I.G has sold the international rights to mainly two companies: China to Yudou and everywhere else except Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau to Crunchyroll. It’s mentioned in the article that these two markets cover most of the revenue for international sales for many productions nowadays.

TL;DR: licensing is worth more than home dvd sales. Big studios(Kyoani, toei, sunrise, IG) are taking more and more charge over their work. Small studios are only hired guns basically with little to no ROI(like madhouse, A-1 and etc). SAO Ordinal scale surpassed 2 billion yen (Industry in regards to late-night anime shifting more to films basically).

http://aja.gr.jp/?wpdmdl=1005
most revenue in the animation industry comes from merchandise, pachinko, and overseas. I guess mobage isn't big enough to mention yet?

[Guardian Enzo]

For all practical purposes Wit is Production I.G.. It's a subsidiary. I just look at it like Bones with its different initialed studios. When I.G. does trade shows and events they promote Wit properties and their own interchangeably - at A/X I don't think I heard the distinction mentioned a single time.

[Ushio the Omega]

According to http://www.someanithing.com/1 2016 has the fewest titles selling an average of 10,000 copies a series since 2007.

[serenade_beta]

The sales of Kemono Friends is such a mystery, thanks to the fact it isn't treated as a DVD and thus is not tracked/cannot be tracked like the other stuff.
I've heard information on the sales of the CDs/songs, but only rumors and no source on the sales of the actual anime. Other than the fact it sells out every time it gets restocked.
I rarely care about sales, but considering what Kemono Friends achieved, it's probably something everyone wants to know.