2009-10-17, 21:30 | Link #1421 | ||
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2009-10-17, 21:40 | Link #1422 | ||
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Do I know this for a fact? No. Does anything prove it? No, but good writing rules prohibit otherwise without some reason or hint. If there is a fake corpse, something needs to be said about it (and something was said in ep4, and it was prohibited, for the shed bodies of ep1). And good writing would indicate that if you've hinted that one person is already a corpse, any corpses you come upon are going to be that person's and not some random extra corpse that happens to have the same number of toes as the corpse that already exists. Occam's Razor. The body in the furnace appears to be Kinzo. The burning of the body makes it impossible to tell when he died. Kinzo died earlier than people thought, and this has been covered up. Add it up and what conclusion do you reach? Quote:
Be realistic. It's fine to doubt, but if you aren't willing to accept even the tiniest conclusions in the face of overwhelming narrative evidence, where does that leave you? Last edited by White Manju Bun; 2010-03-12 at 13:37. |
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2009-10-17, 21:44 | Link #1423 |
Gamilas Falls
Join Date: Feb 2008
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The most basic problem here (aside from the locations of everyone at the time of the murders) is the overly complicated closed rooms. Why was this done? Kinzo (in game three) was not known to be dead, but really was already long dead. His boiler room is the escape hatch, since it cannot be a closed room like the other five rooms.
This setup cannot be a spur of the moment thing...or can it? It seems to well thought up, which would require a good mind to come up with it in the first place. However, that brings up the problem of Kinzo...being dead and all. As of Episode V only four of the servants, Nanjo, Natsuhi and Krauss know for a fact that Kinzo is dead and have known access to his body. Of the remaining known people on the island, Rudolf, Kyrie, Eva, and Hideyosh suspect Kinzo is dead. Rosa seems to be too stressed out to care, and is just going with the flow. Jessica might suspect because she lives there, but there is no real evidence that she does know that Kinzo is dead. Everyone else seems to not know. The closed room plan seems to hinge on using Kinzo's body in the boiler room to make a cover for the way out. Thus someone needed access to the body...or managed to intercept the servants attempting to burn Kinzo's body and then used the altercation as an excuse to put together an overly complicated plan...but for who's benefit? Seriously...who benefits from the overly complex closed room murders when you could have left them all in one spot?
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2009-10-17, 21:48 | Link #1424 |
The Great Dine
Join Date: Feb 2009
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The point of the rooms seem to be trying to show off things in a way that make you not want to suspect the other people and show such odd events that a witch becomes a possibility. This is why I sort of suspect Kyrie - of all the people suspicious of a dead Kinzo she's the one who brings it up first and the closed room maker has to be very smart to make up these absurd rooms.
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2009-10-17, 21:56 | Link #1425 | |
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We can still make theories about what happened even if the detective does not witness most of the events. However, we can only absolutely count on: -The detective's perspective -The red text The events we see do give us clues that we cannot ignore even if they are not in red. But to claim that a theory is absolutely impossible without providing any absolute proof makes no sense.
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2009-10-17, 22:47 | Link #1426 | |
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And as has been observed, scenes that were fake generally have some clue that they were fake, such as magic appearing or characters acting completely different from how they normally are (ie. Natsuhi's scene with Kinzo in Episode 1 was viewed by many people instantly as just plain bizarre.) What evidence is there that the conference scene was faked, and if you cite Devil's Proof, than this entire argument and game is then completely pointless. |
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2009-10-17, 23:00 | Link #1427 |
The Great Dine
Join Date: Feb 2009
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I agree with Kaiba. There is no proof to support the conference was fake. I can see scenes being fake when there are obvious signs of magic, such as Kinzo appearing in EP 4 to the adults and summoning Siestas and Demons, but scenes that Battler doesn't see but have no traces of magic in them whatsoever shouldn't be doubted so much. Otherwise Ryukishi would just be trolling us with every scene that Battler isn't in - and that is A LOT of scenes you're talking about.
You have to also remember - to an extent the one showing us these scenes are Beato. She wants Battler to solve the mystery, as EP 5 blatantly showed us, so why the hell would she troll him at times when she doesn't have to. Trolling with magic scenes is a given, she has to do that. But other times there is really no point. If you need every scene's verification through red text or with Battler in it then you're going to have to ignore many many parts of the story. There is just no point to the game if that's the case. |
2009-10-17, 23:10 | Link #1428 | |
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My argument is simple: Any theory that cannot be ruled out by red text is possible. However, probability is a factor and that's why non magic scenes are important. What theory can be made that best fits with what we are shown? I never claimed that my theory was the best I just objected to it being completely ruled out as a possibility. Regarding the conference scene being faked, let's assume that the conference happened just as shown. How could the culprit have setup all the closed rooms without anyone hearing anything if they were all wide awake the whole time? Someone would have heard something and checked. That's not my position at all. All I've said all along is that you cannot start ruling out things that cannot be absolutely denied.
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2009-10-18, 08:06 | Link #1429 | ||||||
別にいいけど
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In ep4 we know that another bottle was found on the same day of the incident, however that bottle's existence was disclosed to the public only after the second bottle was found. Quote:
Well even if it wasn't George she could have been similar reasons. In that timeline the Rokkenjima incident definitely hasn't been labeled as a crime. There is enough confirmation of this. 1) Okonogi saying that he would get in trouble if he calls it a "crime". Why so? Eva was already dead. 2) Nanjo Jr. being pissed off at anyone who claims this is a crime. Why so? He lost his father in that "incident" if that was a crime he'd want justice to be done, not everything covered up. Quote:
-Being Virgilia is actually a reason to think she's not Beatrice. It as if you said that Genji must be Beatrice because he's the vessel of Ronove. -A clue for what? This is completely unrelated to "disguise" clues -Absolutely no connection with "disguise" clues. Quote:
"Here little child, this is one of the weapons that have been used by the psychopath that killed your parents and your brothers, have fun with it!" Let's be serious.... >_< Quote:
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In Ep1 Nanjo explains to Kinzo how he has only 3 months left to live. In Ep5 Nanjo and everyone comments how sudden Kinzo's death was. Could it be that Nanjo lied in ep5 for some reasons? Otherwise you'd have to think one of these two scenes is fake although there is no magic event involved. There is also the scene in Ep1 where Natsuhi talks to Kinzo and Kinzo tells Natsuhi that the family crest is engraved in her heart. In Ep5 Bern says in red that Kinzo never said that the family crest is engraved in her heart. There was absolutely no clue given that that scene in Ep1 was fake at that time. And no you can't say that natsuhi didn't see Kinzo's face. Kinzo turned towards her in the middle of the conversation. There was absolutely no clue that someone was disguised as Kinzo either. Also red states that no one would mistake Kinzo by sight. Trying to figure out how that scene wasn't a blatant lie even so it wasn't magical or anything, is a real problem isn't it?
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2009-10-18, 08:27 | Link #1430 | ||
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2009-10-18, 08:48 | Link #1431 | ||
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"I will give you this cursed mass of gold." Fursthermore, I think i remember someone saying that because of the large amount of Gold Eva suddenly injected into stock exchange, it was devaluated... but I don't know if this is true or just a rumor. |
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2009-10-18, 10:11 | Link #1432 |
別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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She does say that to Ange. However if my memory doesn't fail me it was said that the existence of the ten tons of gold were still debated.
Eva definitely said that the gold existed, but so did Kinzo, and yet only a few persons actually believed this, and we know that Eva isn't more mentally stable than Kinzo at that point of the story. If the ten tons of gold were confirmed in that instance, the red text of Lambda in ep5 confirming it wouldn't be such a surprise. Did I miss something? Everything that Eva did in the market could be explained with the fact that the Ushiromiya were already filthly rich. Okay in ep5 we know that the economic situation wasn't really that bright. Which means that Eva must have found the gold. However the general public doesn't know.
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2009-10-18, 10:51 | Link #1433 | ||
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There was a very few people that believed in the gold because like they said, Krauss searched all over the island without finding anything after 20 years. Furthermore, we don't know where this gold come from, there is no trace, except the lingot Krauss "inherited". We know that the 10 tons of gold are real now, so the question is, what Eva did with it? Quote:
But if they were desperatly asking to him 150 million Yen, it means that it was a great sum even them couldn't handle. So I doubt that the Ushiromiya were so "filthly rich"... You'll agree that it is pretty suspicious that Eva, which Family was killed and so was the main suspect both for the media and the justice, and with all the company she inherited in troubles, succeed to find people dealing with her without any garanted that the investissment is profitable... |
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2009-10-18, 11:02 | Link #1434 | |
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If you are creating a perfect closed room you would want to do it with as little chance as possible of being detected while setting it up. Yet it appears that the culprit or culprits assumed no one from the conference would hear anything and no one would step outside for a break while the red symbol was painted.
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2009-10-18, 11:44 | Link #1435 | |||
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And it's fully possible that there's more than one person (say George and Nanjo) and one can dump the corpses while the other can paint stuff. Quote:
And besides, do you really think all 7 adults conspired together to kill the servants (which seems to be your theory)? There is zero reason for them to do that, after all. |
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2009-10-18, 12:16 | Link #1436 | |||
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I don't see any way possible that all 7 adults conspired together. I also don't see any way possible that Krauss or Natsuhi would be involved in any way with the first twilight. Is it possible that one of the adults was involved whose objective was to keep everyone in conference room while the closed rooms were setup?
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2009-10-18, 13:17 | Link #1437 | |||
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And How did the culprit reach the conclusion that the adults would hold a conference in the conference room? Do I reeeeaaallly have to explain that? Quote:
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2009-10-18, 13:49 | Link #1438 | ||||
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It's much easier to criticize a theory than it is to post one of your own. Edit: This discussion doesn't have anything to do with episode 5 anymore. If you want to continue this conversation please post you theory in the "[Game] Umineko - Spoilers and speculations" thread.
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Last edited by luckyssol; 2009-10-18 at 14:36. Reason: Move this discussion out of the episode 5 thread. |
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2009-10-18, 22:38 | Link #1439 |
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It's not entirely implausible that there was an accomplice among the adults with the goal of keeping everyone at the conference, but you have to ask how they would have done that without looking suspicious. The adults tend to have a ton to talk about, and only in ep3 do we actually see a conference that properly concludes (well, ep5, but that concludes quite differently). In ep1, Natsuhi has a fit, gets sent out, and Eva and Hideyoshi decide to leave. In ep2, whatever happens, everyone winds up in the chapel somehow. In ep4, it seems the conference never really had a chance to get started.
So it isn't really clear that, barring interruptions, the conference doesn't just happen to run that long all the time. Just never actually pans out most times. As far as the sound, it's not really clear how sound or things like wet footprints and soaked floors apply to anything. That stuff could be conveniently ignored when it isn't important to the writer. Apparently it's hard to hear things on the island, because there was allegedly gunfire in the house in ep4 and you can't hear it from the guesthouse. If people were going in and out of the house at some point, you'd figure there'd be signs of it, but who knows really. |
2009-10-18, 23:01 | Link #1440 | |
Dea ex Kakera
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EDIT: Actually this leads to a more interesting question. What would Beatrice gain by lying about the identity of the stakes that weren't used? Last edited by LyricalAura; 2009-10-19 at 06:53. |
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