Outlook for the future of anime

[Highman]

What is your outlook for anime in the future ?

POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE

[roriconfan]

I can download any anime I want, a few hours after it aired, without leaving my home, for free. Very good for me, very bad for the industry.

NEGATIVE !

[Highman]

Originally Posted by roriconfan

I can download any anime I want, a few hours after it aired, without leaving my home, for free. Very good for me, very bad for the industry.

NEGATIVE !

Best part is Funimation and Crunchyroll is doing alot for businesses in subscriptions and downloading anime. I just think anime needs to be broaden into other countries like Greece for example who probably needs to calm themselves down over, the God's would be pleased by this.

[dredmorte]

Negative.

Too many studios making too many animes. Unsustainable. Demand is lower than supply. Now that we have internet making intellectual property ever more obsolete, the anime industry must adapt if it is to survive in any form. It is not adapting. I have the feeling that it is the otaku population, which is getting older, that is supporting much of the current industry.

[Marcus H.]

What is your outlook for anime in the future ?

THE ANIME INDUSTRY IS PESSIMISTIC, ESPECIALLY WITH ITSELF.
However, I'm wondering why Yutaka Yamamoto is still whining about the industry instead of making ways to make it work?

[Raiga]

NEUTRAL

Things will change, perhaps drastically, studios will die and some new ones will spring up, some companies won't be willing to change while others will embrace new media and lines of distribution. We might be headed for a low but I trust anime as a whole is going to keep chugging on for a while more at least.

Personally I just tend not to accept fatalistic predictions that an industry with so much momentum and diversity is going to suddenly crash and burn all at once with nobody within it trying to save it.

[wontaek]

I saw this around 1980, although it was about Korean animation. I saw this again around 1990s, when people stopped making big budget anime films. I saw it again around 2000 when people were crying everything looks the same. Radio is still around even though TV was supposed to kill them about 60 years ago. Anime will adapt and live on so,

Positive.

[meko]

I have a feeling it's going to be more 3D and more awesome looking, but story-wise, I'm not too sure.

I hope the writers of tomorrow will be as juicy and exciting as the ones we have in this era and have a medium to express their story telling styles.

[Arbitres]

Positive

Edit:

Pffft, the OP post was so vague I actually thought this was something else entirely. xD

Have to agree with the above poster though (sheba), it isn't like a crash will happen all of a sudden and not be salvageable.

It isn't going to disippear or vanish anytime soon. Though I say that, I do try my best to keep it afloat when I can afford to... Which isn't often I'm afraid.

[Sheba]

Positive. While people thinks that a crash is about to occur, I am fairly optimistic, for anime will find a way to bounce back.

[DragoZERO]

We are at a point where things can go either way. It'll be up to the big companies as to whether it's positive or negative.

[Triple_R]

Domestically, I think that anime is fine for the foreseeable future (another five years, at least).

A fair number of animes sold well on DVD/Blu-Ray this past year in Japan, and that shows that there is a decent customer market for anime in Japan itself.

That being said, I get the same sense that dredmorte is having: That it is the otaku population, which is getting older, that is supporting much of the current industry.

So, there might be some concern that anime isn't bringing in enough new young (20 or younger) viewers to ensure that the next generation of anime fans will be as large as the current generation is. Still, even here, there are some encouraging signs and areas of potential. For example, consider how K-On! became popular with a younger female audience, and even when that wasn't likely a major aim for the anime makers. If the anime industry is smart they'll find ways to continue to tap into that younger female demographic, which can only help grow the anime fandom.


Now, on the foreign (i.e. everywhere outside of Japan) side of things, my view is more negative. Anime DVDs/Blu-Rays don't sell anywhere near as good in foreign markets as they do in Japan. Furthermore, I've heard and read conflicting reports on just how profitable ventures like Crunchyroll has been for the anime industry thus far.

It honestly wouldn't shock me to see English dubbing die within a few years. The foreign market for the anime industry really is at a crossroads right now.

[0utf0xZer0]

Originally Posted by Triple_R

Domestically, I think that anime is fine for the foreseeable future (another five years, at least).

A fair number of animes sold well on DVD/Blu-Ray this past year in Japan, and that shows that there is a decent customer market for anime in Japan itself.

Well, to be fair, the increase in sales per show was pretty much guaranteed by the drop in the number of shows produced. But I do agree, it does suggest demand is still there for physical media.

Broadcast revenues are another matter, I've heard they've fallen considerably the last few years. This doesn't affect late night shows much, but it does impact more mainstream productions. To be fair, this was pretty much inevitable - heavy internet use means people aren't going to be watching as much TV, but it's still not a good thing.

The big question is what happens when Japan does start to move towards a non-physical media: the reason the anime industry has been able to set prices so high on DVDs/Blurays is because they're basically selling collector's items. Digital downloads are not collectors items.

Streaming? At mere cents per view, you're going to have to pull a lot of revenue to make up for any loss in physical media sales. Online pay per view or subscriptions might do it though. I wouldn't say that otaku are immune to pirate culture but I still think they're more likely to pay for something online than the average person. And relatively smart companies can probably figure out promotions that will entice them to pay up too.

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by 0utf0xZer0

Well, to be fair, the increase in sales per show was pretty much guaranteed by the drop in the number of shows produced. But I do agree, it does suggest demand is still there for physical media.

Broadcast revenues are another matter, I've heard they've fallen considerably the last few years. This doesn't affect late night shows much, but it does impact more mainstream productions. To be fair, this was pretty much inevitable - heavy internet use means people aren't going to be watching as much TV, but it's still not a good thing.

That's true. However, I'm only going to be really concerned about this if and when it brings down one of the big mainstream titles - Bleach, Naruto, One Piece, and Pokemon, basically.

The big question is what happens when Japan does start to move towards a non-physical media: the reason the anime industry has been able to set prices so high on DVDs/Blurays is because they're basically selling collector's items. Digital downloads are not collectors items.

Precisely.

Which is exactly why I think that DVDs/Blurays are going to be here to stay a lot longer than many people think.

Serious collectors tend to like to have physical merchandise in their collections. They want something tangible to display on shelves, in bedrooms, in recreation rooms, and in computer rooms.

Digital downloads can't and won't provide that. So I don't see DVDs/Blurays going away anytime soon.

There is obvious demand there (on the part of the otaku), and there is profit there (for animation studios). As long as that demand and profit remains, DVDs and Blurays will be with us. Which is actually the main reason why I'm not too worried about the future of anime in Japan itself: the widespread existence of internet piracy has done absolutely nothing to dissuade the modern otaku from paying lots of cash for certain anime titles on DVDs and Blurays.

Streaming? At mere cents per view, you're going to have to pull a lot of revenue to make up for any loss in physical media sales. Online pay per view or subscriptions might do it though. I wouldn't say that otaku are immune to pirate culture but I still think they're more likely to pay for something online than the average person. And relatively smart companies can probably figure out promotions that will entice them to pay up too.

Online pay per view or subscriptions might be the only way for the animation industry to make a real profit out of the foreign market, yeah.

[DragoZERO]

I wish we'd get more BD releases, particularly from Bandai. There are a few titles that I'd buy if a BD boxset were to be released.

[iPonbiki]

Negative!

A lot of youngsters are being raised on an increasing amount ecchi anime and manga, and as a result that is likely what they are going to write about themselves when they take an interest in manga down the road. This will likely mean a future manga market completely flooded with ecchi manga from which the anime production companies will have to choose their potential anime adaptions.

Production costs are being cut left and right as well and a lot of the processes involved in animation are being outsource to countries where labor isn't as expensive. Ecchi anime usually sells well to the hardcore otaku market which only increases producers desire to produce these types of shows.

Future = ~90% ecchi based anime :: ~10% other (story driven) anime

Occasionally there will be a ecchi anime that will climb out of the garbage that is most ecchi anime, but I expect to see a lot of low quality anime in the future.

[Hooves]

Originally Posted by iPonbiki

Future = ~90% ecchi based anime :: ~10% other (story driven) anime

Occasionally there will be a ecchi anime that will climb out of the garbage that is most ecchi anime, but I expect to see a lot of low quality anime in the future.

Well... I am starting to see more and more ecchi animes from time to time, but I'm just sure it was a coincidence that it happened..

[OgodItsKanon]

Positive. As others have said, even if a crash occurs, it won't completely destroy the anime business. Producers would find ways to come back.

[Vexx]

The biggest issue for the anime industry is the same issue facing many other sectors in the Japanese economy --- there aren't enough youngsters being born due to the crash of the birth rate. This is creating a large dip in the primary demographic. So either the industry is going to have to produce mostly seinen/josei targeted material (real adult stories, not simply ecchi for teens) as the current audience ages -- or its going to strangle because there simply aren't enough eyeballs.

Producing material intended for international audiences might be one alternate route... but every time I see that happen, the material loses the flavor that made it charming in the first place.

[0utf0xZer0]

Originally Posted by Triple_R

That's true. However, I'm only going to be really concerned about this if and when it brings down one of the big mainstream titles - Bleach, Naruto, One Piece, and Pokemon, basically.

Eh, there's a fair number of shows aside from the big four that get a good chunk of the revenues from broadcasts. I'd go as far as to say I think this is why we see less titles like Seirei no Moribito going forward. That said, I think a good chunk of this collapse may have already happened.

Originally Posted by Triple_R

Online pay per view or subscriptions might be the only way for the animation industry to make a real profit out of the foreign market, yeah.

I wasn't actually talking about foreign markets here. From what I've heard, there's actually a decent rental market for anime in Japan (combination of high costs and lack of storage space in most accomodations), so PPV or subscriptions could have a market there. Of course, whether it will actually grow the market is another matter.

Originally Posted by iPonbiki

Negative!

A lot of youngsters are being raised on an increasing amount ecchi anime and manga, and as a result that is likely what they are going to write about themselves when they take an interest in manga down the road. This will likely mean a future manga market completely flooded with ecchi manga from which the anime production companies will have to choose their potential anime adaptions.

Production costs are being cut left and right as well and a lot of the processes involved in animation are being outsource to countries where labor isn't as expensive. Ecchi anime usually sells well to the hardcore otaku market which only increases producers desire to produce these types of shows.

Future = ~90% ecchi based anime :: ~10% other (story driven) anime

Occasionally there will be a ecchi anime that will climb out of the garbage that is most ecchi anime, but I expect to see a lot of low quality anime in the future.

Define youngsters. Ecchi anime is aimed at otaku, not kids (its always aired on either late night TV or subscription channels like AT-X), although I imagine a lot of teens try and get their hands on it.

Also, under no circumstances do I expect 90% of anime to be ecchi. There's simply too much other stuff going on in the anime market, and ecchi makes up only a small fraction of the top selling shows.