[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[UsagiTenpura]

Even tho you can't create a natural disaster, I sorta want to think that's what it is nontheless. Kinzo was part of a "branch of a branch" and became the heir after a natural disaster. Basically if it's also a natural disaster Ange ends up in the same situation that Kinzo did.

As mentioned there's things like the storm that would've been very hard to predict, nontheless, it occurs every time. Kinzo mentions how "magic" is to "draw coincidence to you"(like his Moses example), so I think Beatrice isn't responsible for what's going on but just draws it to her, as if it was no coincidence.

Also ... the explosion theory requires an explosion that's just... way too big to make any more sense then a volcano or something. Sometimes earthquakes or the such can result in part of an island going underwater and getting smaller, as well as changing the landscape for part of the remaining island.

And since there's various mentions of earthquake... I think it's more likely then an explosion at least for now. I really dislike "completely new information" (that had nothing hinting it) that appears in arc 5-6 because it was said in red that all the clues are in arc 1-2-3-4. Doesn't that sorta mean that anything new that was never hinted at before is a Red herring?

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Racheya-sama

I just want to clarify where this theory of a bomb has come from? I *get* it, but I'm not understanding what the basis was for this theory to come about? Was there any reference to a bomb-like thing happening in the VN's that I've just missed?

Ryukishi lists the hints that lead to the endgame explosion theory in an interview and pretty explicitly confirms it. Biggest ones are in Ep4.

[Renall]

It's suggested to be an explosion as early as the ep1 endscroll. Most people didn't believe it because it seemed far-fetched, and it still does, but the fact that there was some manner of explosion appears to be correct. Its full nature is completely unclear, however.

[Judoh]

If anyone cares I once suggested we could have an explosion activated by a phone call from the outside line at midnight.

There is a way to rig the phones to only receive calls from the outside line and not be able to call using the outside line apparently.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Judoh

If anyone cares I once suggested we could have an explosion activated by a phone call from the outside line at midnight.

The only point for doing that would be to let Beatrice set up the final Ep4 puzzle, though.

[Renall]

I'm curious as to whether it's necessary to interpret the "but I am here now" part. You're stretching metaphor to say you're "here" when you make a phone call.

[Leafsnail]

Noone outside the island can interfere?

[DaBackpack]

Well, think of it this way: assuming a bomb did go off (and it wasn't a natural disaster) how come no one mentions it in the future? There could be a few possibilities:

1.) They assumed that the Kumadorian was the main structure of the island and not the mansion
2.) The mansion was intact from the accident
3.) They did and Ryukishi just didn't say anything about it

If Option 1 is the key, then there is no problem at all as long as the mansion is completely wiped off the face of the earth and no remnants are left behind. However, body parts of the children were found so there must have been something left.

If Option 2 is the key, I would like to re-introduce small bombs into the picture. There were strategically placed incendiary devices by the important rooms and the survivors were killed at the very end. The wharf was blown up for some reason, though... maybe the culprit didn't anticipate the storm to be as bad as it was and blew it up to ensure that no one could escape or be rescued?

If Option 3 is the key, then we're back where we started.

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

Well, think of it this way: assuming a bomb did go off (and it wasn't a natural disaster) how come no one mentions it in the future? There could be a few possibilities:

They do. They mention the Rokkenjima accident in the future they just leave out the explosion part as if it's self evident.

1.) They assumed that the Kumadorian was the main structure of the island and not the mansion

Huh? I don't follow

2.) The mansion was intact from the accident

It wasn't. Along with the mansion's dock the mansion and the land it was standing on are also missing. This is pointed out in the anime, and the game, as well as the interview.

3.) They did and Ryukishi just didn't say anything about it

see above

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by Judoh

They do. They mention the Rokkenjima accident in the future they just leave out the explosion part as if it's self evident.

Right, I mean he was intentionally being vague by having the characters use the ambiguous "Rokkenjima Accident" term.

Originally Posted by Judoh

Huh? I don't follow

Not many people were familiar with the layout of the island. If the main mansion was completely annihilated and no one noticed any remains, they could have just assumed that the only structure was Kumadorian. But that creates problems like "how did they know people died at all?" So there must have been some remains. Unless the boat captain tipped off authorities about the mansion, but still.

Originally Posted by Judoh

It wasn't. Along with the mansion's dock the mansion and the land it was standing on are also missing. This is pointed out in the anime, and the game, as well as the interview.

Sorry, I guess I didn't pick up on that

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

Sorry, I guess I didn't pick up on that

It went by pretty quick a lot of people didn't.

Not many people were familiar with the layout of the island. If the main mansion was completely annihilated and no one noticed any remains, they could have just assumed that the only structure was Kumadorian. But that creates problems like "how did they know people died at all?" So there must have been some remains. Unless the boat captain tipped off authorities about the mansion, but still.

IIRC Kawabata actually says he did that.

Maria's jaw is the only piece of evidence we're specifically told about that suggests any remains were found.

To go further on that last point Nanjo Jr. says his father's body was never found.

EDIT: However Hachijou Touya says if she went to Rokkenjima herself she'd probably be able to confirm all of her answers.

[Leafsnail]

Also, bear in mind that if the people were found in anything even remotely resembling the state they were in during the episodes, there wouldn't really be much doubt as to whether it was murder or not...

[pmoys]

Originally Posted by winter 923

...

Spoiler for How do witches die:

Witches die when they get bored or proven that they do not exist. they can revive anytime if they have the motivation for it. if you look at it metaphoricaly sick people die to the society, they cannot leave their room, get bored and even lose their lust. The same thing could be said about a closed room. Besides the last sentence everything of this can be read in Umineko. yes farfetched again sorry.

witches die... wait. Remember Ange was part of the mariage sorciere? she became sick and "died" to maria during that particular family conference, and was hardly discussed during any game (child ange).
Although nobody is on the island that isn't supposed to be, i wonder if ange didn't become some part of a plan from kyrie's family...
"please take this on your next trip and plant it! it's a seed!" but it is not... are seeds small bombs?
anyway, at that point, if all ushiromiyas save for ange die, it makes ange the sole heir to the fortune, but too young to do anything with it. so she would be under the care of kyrie's family...

ok it doesn't make much sense, but for some reason when you said "witches die" that idea just clicked with me.
perhaps maria is nutso and is trying to "revive" ange with firecrackers. idk.

[zRyuu]

There are parts in EP2 that makes me think that the fakery is done for Maria's sake (cousins and Nanjo's conversation in the guesthouse, the witches tea party when Lambda talks about Santa), and well Rosa could've been involved in both EP1 and EP2.
EP1: Both Rosa and Eva left the dinning hall. Eva "survives" the first twilight, the second twilight looks fake because of the way Eva and Hideyoshi were killed.
EP2: Rosa and the servants's lie made the chapel closed room. It's possible that the chapel hasn't been closed since the start of the game.

[UsagiTenpura]

EP2: Rosa and the servants's lie made the chapel closed room. It's possible that the chapel hasn't been closed since the start of the game.

It's more then possible it's very likely, tho I'm not sure the servants ever said anything about the chapel being locked (when Batter got there Rosa was already inside).
Beatrice said a ton of red about the key's location and how the door needed the key to be locked or unlocked but it's never said once that it IS locked (or ever was).

So basically the "chapel closed room" is a mystery only created in the meta world, by ensnaring our thoughts.

[Kylon99]

Excuse the interruption. I had to post this somewhere.

This is a collection of some of my theories as well as some of the theories making the rounds on the board. There will be spoilers up to EP6. EDIT: These theories were made as of EP6 and have not been updated at the end of EP8.

This might be a repeat for most of you, except check out the 'Epitaph Key Theory' under Epitaph Fakery Theory. That's a bit new.

As for the other stuff, let me know if I need to make edits. I'll be coming back to this message to edit it. Also if you guys want me to add any well established theories let me know. Like the 10th Twilight Bomb Theory? That's kinda pretty obvious now so I didn't include it here...

Spoiler for Faction War Theory:

Definition:
Faction - a representation of one or more person's conspiracy or plan to achieve an outcome on Rokkenjima on those two days.

It is easier to think of the conspiracies and strong-wills-to-do-something in Umineko as a faction of which people can belong to, rather than to name specific names. This is because people can belong to one or more factions, especially without the knowledge of other faction members. We have already seen somewhat of these three factions:

Inheritance Faction
- This faction attempts to expose Krauss in order to trigger the inheritance and obtain money for the siblings.
- This faction is led by Eva.
- This faction should contain at least these members: Eva, Hideyoshi, Rudolf, Kyrie, Rosa

Anti-Inheritance Faction
- This faction attempts to keep Kinzo's life/death status a mystery by pretending he's unwilling to leave the study or has gone wandering off in the woods (in some episodes.) By doing this, this will prevent, for a limited time, the inheritance from triggering.
- This faction is led by Natsuhi.
- This faction should contain at least these members: Natsuhi, Krauss, Genji, Kumasawa, Nanjo, Shannon, Kanon.

Beatrice Faction
- This faction attempts to fake the Epitaph Murders and promotes the legend of Beatrice. This faction is interested in making Battler believe in Beatrice and magic as well. Also, this faction seems to want to keep Kinzo's life/death status a mystery up till a certain point for some episodes.
- This faction is led by Genji and probably Nanjo and Kumasawa. (i.e. WALRONGAP)
- This faction contains at least these members: Genji, Nanjo, Kumasawa, Shannon, Kanon, Gouda, Rosa?, George?

There are probably other factions with motives we can only guess of right now. For example, George and Shannon's faction. And Kanon's faction (of which he may be the only member) when he decides to 'rebel against the roulette.' Kyrie may have her own purposes as well.

The theory goes that it is the interaction of these factions and the more murderous ones that give rise to the way the game is randomly shaped each time.

Spoiler for Epitaph Fakery Theory -- Or, The Theory Formerly Known as the Fake First Twilight Theory:

In episode 5 and 6 we are given an answer of sorts from Ryukishi that people were faking the first twilight. This theory goes that:

- There is a plan to fake the first twilight in all episodes, although it doesn't always succeed.
- This plan to fake twilights includes other twilights and generally follows the Epitaph.
- Most attempts at twilight fakery allow another person, with knowledge of this plan to truly kill some if not all the fakers.

As a general outline of the First Twilight fakery, it begins by selecting 6 victims to fake, around 10pm of the first night, Oct 4th. These victims are usually chosen from the mansion, and usually from stragglers taking a break from the family meeting. If the meeting goes on, then servants can be added to substitute or in a worse case scenario like EP5, people from the guesthouse can be called on to fake. This fakery continues on for some time and may or may not be discovered. Either way, the fakers, if not already killed will get up and meet at another location before 6am. In some cases they are killed before they can do that. In other cases they are killed afterwards.

Definitions:
Betrayer - The person(s) responsible for killing the fakers.

Evidence:
- EP5, all first twilight corpses were not moved after death
- EP6, all first twilight victims are shown to be faking in the story.
- Nanjo is never chosen for the first twilight as the doctor; to provide credibility to the idea that people are dead when they're faking


Other twilights continue to be faked, even if the characters seem to realize that someone is killing the fakers. For example, this includes Kanon attacking Nanjo and Kumasawa in EP2, as well as Gouda and Kumasawa's attempt at faking hanging themselves before being shot in EP4.

Corollaries
- The reasons for faking must be a very serious reason as by now all people have been caught up in the scheme. If it was coercion via violence or money, people like Eva or Kyrie would become suspicious and probably not play along. If it was some other reason, people like Krauss or Natsuhi who think they are the masters of the island would also not play along. An overriding reason for all people must be present, such as Kinzo's will.
- The chances of two people not being picked for the first twilight in all 5 episodes is 3.46% The chances of one person survivng all twilights from EP1-5 is 1.31%. This means Nanjo is purposely excluded from the first twilight and Battler is purposely excluded from all twilights in EP1-5. This highly suggests the Epitaph Fakery is concerned with Battler in some way.
- Rudolf was the one who brought Battler back, ultimately in a kneeling, forehead-to-ground apology. Therefore he was asked to bring him back and his revelation that he might die that night in EP1 may reflect his knowledge of the Fakery.

Here are more consequences to the Epitaph Theory, which is a bit new.

Spoiler for Epitaph Key Theory:

If the Epitaph Fakery Theory is true then the plan must also involve selecting a 'Key.' This is because if they stick to following the Epitaph so closely, they must have also followed the events prior to the First Twilight, which is the finding of the Key. According to the Epitaph the key must guide someone to the Golden Land.

My theory is that the siblings who we've seen working with the servants (AKA Beatrice Faction) are recruited as the key. This explains their non-constant involvement in each episode.

EP1 - Natsuhi
EP2 - Rosa
EP3 - Eva
EP4 - Kyrie?
EP5 - Rosa
EP6 - ???? Probably Krauss, Hideyoshi or Rudolf.

My current theory is that the Key is responsible for secretly guiding Battler to solve the epitaph. And yes, in EP3, Eva abandoned her responsibilities as most of the Beatrice Faction was dead. And then killed Battler. Ergo, I think the purpose of the Epitaph Magic Show was to take away and return Battler's precious family members to teach him a lesson about losing his family. And then to lead him to the gold in order for him to be the new head. But since the Epitaph Magic Show wouldn't have resulted in the deaths of anyone it is not related to Battler's sin.

Evidence:

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

That would tie in well with something bizarre Beato said to Rosa in EP2 when she handed over her first letter. I don't remember the exact text, but it was along the lines of: "Any of the siblings would have been fine, but it looks like you were chosen by the roulette this time." That was the letter we never found out the contents of, if I recall...

- Natsuhi + the Genji/Nanjo/Kumasawa (or the WALRONGAP trio) seems like the most likely suspect to have placed the letter in the study. This was their plan to separate the group in order to provide the final victims of the twilights. Although they were not supposed to have really been killed.
- Rosa was seen lying about visiting the study in EP2, i.e. helping Genji and Shannon, but later on became suspicious of them and cast them and Battler away.

Spoiler for Author Theory:

Definitions:
Author - Author of the Message Bottle stories, most likely of Episode 1 and 2. This author's handwriting matches writing in Maria's diary and the writing in the Golden Land envelopes Ange discovered.
Rokkenjima Prime - The Rokkenjima of the real world the author lives in. Also can refer to the rest of that world in general.
Ange Prime, Battler Prime, etc - The Ange, Battler, etc of the author's world.

Every episode (1-6) of Umineko that we have read is an analog of a story found in Rokkenjima Prime. The authors have written these tales based on the real (to the author) events of Rokkenjima for a the purpose of exposing the truth to other people. In order to claim legitamacy to the events at Rokkenjima, the author has included this truth into the characters, the settings and the circumstance of the story. For example, things like "Kinzo is dead at the starting time of all games."

The theory goes that EP5-6 were written by Hachijou, and possibly EP3-4 as well. But EP1-2 was written by 'Beatrice' who is identified by her handwriting.

Supporting Theory - Historical Method Theory
The trap to the Author Theory is that knowing the episodes are fiction, one might be tempted to think that they are all useless. But since the Author has added what she knows of the truth of the story AND is intending for us to solve the mystery, the episodes are actually used to find the real truth and the real culprit, even if we are never told of what happened on Rokkenjima Prime.

The way this works is similar to the Historical Method, where historians use Secondary and Tertiary sources to point back torwards the presence of a primary source even though it has been lost to history.


Evidence:
- Hachijou has claimed that she wrote Episodes 3-6
- Episodes 1-5 are said to conform to Knox Rules and are solvable. No episode could be a story of Rokkenjima Prime as the real world does not conform to Knox Rules.
- Character development including George-Shannon relationship, Shannon's changing personality, Kanon's changing personality.
- Character memories of previous episodes; namely Shannon and Kanon discussing prior episodes.
- Ange 'bumping' into Battler in EP4 on the morning of October 4th.
- The revival of Sakutarou in EP4 and his return to Maria's side in EP6.
- The ability for characters from different Meta levels to visit other levels; most notably - Piece Beatrice is taken to the level above Meta Battler; the world supposedly 'viewing' Meta Battler's story at that instant.


Corollaries
- The author must know a majority of the truths about Rokkenjima before she can write. These 'Core Truths' must be constant for every episode in order for it to be considered a true Umineko story. Hachijou claims to have known some or most of this truth in order to have written EP6.
- The author, and any successive author is allowed to speculate on things outside the Core Truth until it becomes known, and then becomes part of the Core Truth. For example, Erika's life or death status on those two days. Or Kyrie's pregnancy.
- This author is pretty easy to narrow down since she must fufill several requirements: Knowledge of almost everything on the island and being on the island when Maria visits. We are thinking it is Shannon, as she seems to be the only one in the unique position of knowing all the conspiracies and situation on the island

For Historical reasons, here were my original Author Theory posts, dated 2010-01-07, 16:02
http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost...postcount=5188

No one noticed until the topic came up again that March.
http://forums.animesuki.com/showthre...52#post2971652

The discussion continued 1 or 2 more pages until Renall was able to summarize it much more effectively. And also give it the catchy name, "Author Theory."
http://forums.animesuki.com/showthre...39#post2971739

Spoiler for Umineko Color Theory:

This theory is an observation of the colors Ryukishi uses as a metaphor in Umineko. In short:

Red - Lambdadelta - Certainty - Red Text
Blue - Bernkastel - Miracles - Blue Text
Gold - Beatrice - Endless/Limitless - Gold Text
Black/White - Featherine - Objective Observation - Black/White Text
*Text is black in the manga.

Here are more observed patterns:
Red - Siesta 45 - Furfur - Red guy/girl in EP7 portrait
Blue - Siesta 410 - Zepar - Blue guy in EP7 portrait
Gold - Siesta 00 - Furfur - Red guy/girl's hair in EP7 portrait
Black - Siesta 556 - Zepar - Blue guy's hair in EP7 portrait

Unfortunately this theory isn't very useful for coming up with solid clues.

Spoiler for Red Text Theory:

This theory comes from the observation that Battler used 'No one would mistake Kinzo by sight' from EP4 to be the one of the linchpins in his argument in EP5. And he succeeded with it too.

With this we know that red text must apply to the future as well in all games. But there are red texts that are contexted into one specific game.

Therefore the theory is that red texts that have a generalized context apply to all games. For example:

- No life forms other than humans have any connection to this game
- There are no more than 17 people on this island
- Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo are not killers.
- The identities of all unidentified corpses are guaranteed

Care must be taken to determine if red text was contexted into a particular episode, such as:
- Both were killed by another person! (obviously must refer to the EP1 second twilight.)

[Oliver]

Speaking of the author theory...

I have a feeling that Hachijou is lying. There are actually three authors.

One for Ep1-2, a very different one for Ep3-4, and possibly Hachijou herself for Ep5-6.

Thoughts?

[Smeckledorf]

Originally Posted by Oliver

Speaking of the author theory...

I have a feeling that Hachijou is lying. There are actually three authors.

One for Ep1-2, a very different one for Ep3-4, and possibly Hachijou herself for Ep5-6.

Thoughts?

I personally despise author theories, but if I were to pair similar episodes... I would say 1&5, 2&3, and 4&6. But what really tells us that a different character is writing the story? Nothing.
Anyways, I paired the episodes as such because 1&5 put a lot of attention on Natsuhi, 2&3 put a lot of attention on Rosa, then 4&6 are completely different from the rest.

[Kylon99]

Originally Posted by Oliver

Speaking of the author theory...

I have a feeling that Hachijou is lying. There are actually three authors.

One for Ep1-2, a very different one for Ep3-4, and possibly Hachijou herself for Ep5-6.

Thoughts?

I suspect that Hachijou doesn't know as much truth as she claims to. Certainly not all of it. Since I'm suspecting that whoever wrote EP5-6 didn't just stop at the first twilights for both episodes for the sake of the story but because they lacked the rest of the answers.

If this is true then it can explain why she needs to seek more truths now.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Kylon99

I suspect that Hachijou doesn't know as much truth as she claims to. Certainly not all of it. Since I'm suspecting that whoever wrote EP5-6 didn't just stop at the first twilights for both episodes for the sake of the story but because they lacked the rest of the answers.

If this is true then it can explain why she needs to seek more truths now.

She doesn't even claim that much, strictly speaking. She claims knowledge of "certain answers" but never elaborates on what they are or how deeply they reach. I can do that too, and often more convincingly.

3-4 contain a completed story that goes all the way to the endgame event, while 5-6 contain what appears to be a self-insert character bent on stealing the show by being the tragic heroine. If you can pull off faithful-to-the-original-bottles 3 and 4, why do you need to write 5 and 6, which are so radically different?

That begs the question though, what else could "Itouikukuro Reigonamu" mean other than 18^8. Did Hachijou actually find two real bottles, 3 and 4, and release them under her pen name before writing two more, or did someone else write 3 and 4 under that name, which seems to encrypt 18^8 but actually meant something very different for them, and then Hachijou noticed it's 18^8 and decided to mess in it on her own?