[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni Chiru - Ep. 6 Dawn of the golden witch

[Megaolix]

Originally Posted by Midnight Bliss

what is with all these shkanon hints aaaah please dont let it be true ;-; RYUKISHI YOU TROLL</3

Well, if that red at the end is to kill Erika, we got the confirmation that there are exactly 17 humans on the island (Erika = 0). Meaning Shkanon is crushed.

[Marion]

Originally Posted by Megaolix

Well, if that red at the end is to kill Erika, we got the confirmation that there are exactly 17 humans on the island (Erika = 0). Meaning Shkanon is crushed.

Erika is included in the 17, so without her there were originally 16 people.

[luckyssol]

In my opinion, I don’t think any of the following are possible:
1) Shannon is the same person as Kanon
2) Shannon counts as a personality or codename
3) Kanon counts as a personality or codename
4) Shannon died before October 4th
5) Kanon died before October 4th

However, I won’t deny that there are other Shkanon possibilities. The one I like the most is that there is a duel between them which occurs very early in the morning on October 4th before the boat arrives. This not only allows us to select between one of them but also allows for variations on who wins the duel since it occurs during the game board’s time frame. Shannon could win the duel. Kanon could win the duel. They both could die. Neither of them could die. The fact that Battler never sees them together in any of the first four games is a good enough clue that something like this would occur. Of course, one would still need to disguise as the other and make some kind of appearance or else suspicion would be raised.

Shkanon is not dead yet but the possibilities on how to construct the theory are definitely limited.

[Kitsu]

Erika is included in the 17, so without her there were originally 16 people.

But if she is the 0 as a lot here suspect than there are 17 people plus 0 (erika).

I completly agree with Ssol here Shkanon certainly isn't dead but there only limited possibilites for it to be true.

[Tjfarmer]

Originally Posted by Ssol

In my opinion, I don’t think any of the following are possible:
1) Shannon is the same person as Kanon
2) Shannon counts as a personality or codename
3) Kanon counts as a personality or codename
4) Shannon died before October 4th
5) Kanon died before October 4th

However, I won’t deny that there are other Shkanon possibilities. The one I like the most is that there is a duel between them which occurs very early in the morning on October 4th before the boat arrives. This not only allows us to select between one of them but also allows for variations on who wins the duel since it occurs during the game board’s time frame. Shannon could win the duel. Kanon could win the duel. They both could die. Neither of them could die. The fact that Battler never sees either of them together in any of the first four games is a good enough clue that something like this would occur. Of course, one would still need to disguise as the other and make some kind of appearance or else suspicion would be raised.

Shkanon is not dead yet but the possibilities on how to construct the theory are definitely limited.

This is what I wanna believe. Is it possible that in Ep 5, Erika was the 18th person (since the duel never happened?), but in Ep 6, she is the 17th, and that's how 2 red truths can exist about it? Because she is both the 17th, and the 18th, but in different gameboards.

I'd be perfectly fine with that Shkanon.

[Midnight Bliss]

Erika can't be 0 because I believe it was said Erika only increases the number of people on the island by one.
I guess than Shkanon wouldn't be too bad. I hope it didnt happen on all of the games, though, if that's the case...all that character development for Kanon and Jessica ;A; /sorry im a fangirl

[tcaz2]

I'm still puzzled on how we have confirmation of there being two separate corpses at least in Episode 3 (and Shannon was confirmed a corpse, so it's not a personality killing or whatever), yet "The only one who can claim Kanon's name is the original person!" jives with the Shkanon theory.

As it should be impossible for Shannon to 'take' Kanon's name with that red.

Personally, I think the fact that either everyone in the mansion would have to be in on it or utterly retarded to not notice it is enough of a strike against it, but...

I mean, Natsuhi barely succeeded in hiding Kinzo for a couple days out of a year before the others got suspicious.

And somehow Kanon and Shannon (and maybe Genji) can hide it for YEARS? Unless Kanon died before-hand and Shannon took his name, of course... but then that goes back to my first paragraph.

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by Klashikari

And once for all, I would like to point out that "corpse" is the same.
The word doesn't have any kind of "possible interpretation".

I was surprised that some people claim on various forums that "the body "died" but the persona is still alive, then the body got better" (favored argument in order to explain Jessica's death in Episode 2)... using Erika's fallacious reasoning that the victims were put in coma because of insulin.

Corpse is basically a body without life, and unless science managed to get the holy grail or whatsoever, there is no way to restore life to a dead body.
And no, someone afflicted by a cardiac arrest is -not- considered dead, until all reanimation procedures (CPR etc) were ineffective. It is only after that point that medical team declare one's death, at that specific time.
Therefore, no one "becomes dead, then alive afterwards" at all. And again, red text doesn't care about "legal stuff" whatsoever. Corpse means: the said character is dead (or it would be the worst cop out ever).

There did seem to be some interesting wordplay with respect to "existence" (存在). Based on the "everyone else" argument and Kinzo does not exist from Episode 5, it sounds like "Person X" and "the corpse of Person X" are being treated as separate entities. We already knew that was the case for the person limit, but it looks like it applies more generally.

After leaving the bathroom, the culprit, "Erika", searched the bedroom and closet. She discovered Kanon hiding and murdered him. Upon his death, Kanon ceased to be "Kanon" and became "Kanon's corpse." This is how Kanon "vanished" from the guest room.

@Dr. Akagi: The avatar is cropped from a K-On parody 4koma. If I can find it, I'll post it in the image thread for you.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by Ssol

This not only allows us to select between one of them but also allows for variations on who wins the duel since it occurs during the game board’s time frame.

If the duel takes place during the game board's time frame then their corpse would probably still count against the number of people... we don't see the person count going down after the first twilight, after all.

Originally Posted by tcaz2

Personally, I think the fact that either everyone in the mansion would have to be in on it or utterly retarded to not notice it is enough of a strike against it, but...

I mean, Natsuhi barely succeeded in hiding Kinzo for a couple days out of a year before the others got suspicious.

If you want to believe in the theory, then everyone who has seen the two of them together would have to be in on it, while those who have never seen Shannon and Kanon in the same room (outside of a magic or meta scene) are not.

Interestingly, I don't believe that Jessica has ever seen the two of them together...

[tcaz2]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

If you want to believe in the theory, then everyone who has seen the two of them together would have to be in on it, while those who have never seen Shannon and Kanon in the same room (outside of a magic or meta scene) are not.

Interestingly, I don't believe that Jessica has ever seen the two of them together...

Which is my point.

It's ridiculously contrived. It's as bad as someone saying "Well, everyone is lying to give each other alibis and someone snuck out of x room to kill someone and nobody told anyone."

Which, again, correct me if I'm wrong, the 'only solveable by Shkanon' closed room basically comes to- Shannon jumps out the window of the 2nd floor of the guest room (while a good portion of the adults are watching, mind you), changes to Kanon, rescues Battler, then goes back.

...Huh? How does that even sound remotely plausible?

[Nayrael]

I have not been following the whole tread so forgive me if I am repeating here...

If ShKanon is true, then isn't there something wrong with murders in EP4? I mean, the only possible final killer there is Kanon:

Kinzou is dead at the beginning of the game.
Maria has been poisoned, but it is hard to believe that she could murder anyone with a shotgun.
Judging by their corpses, other characters have been killed with a shotgun and none of them seems to have committed suicide as there was no shotgun near their corpses. In other words, if Kanon = Shanon then the murders were impossible as nobody could carry the final murder before Battler was killed by the 00:00 "accident" (Maria, as mentioned, is too young to use the gun). If Kanon =/= Shanon, then Kanon either killed the last victim or the culprit and somehow died at the end (by suicide, accident or inflicted wound).

Actually, if the board is turned over, then the ShKanon hints may exist only to mislead us from real clues.

Oh, and I agree with Erika = 0 theory.

[tcaz2]

Originally Posted by Nayrael

I have not been following the whole tread so forgive me if I am repeating here...

If ShKanon is true, then isn't there something wrong with murders in EP4? I mean, the only possible final killer there is Kanon:

Kinzou is dead at the beginning of the game.
Maria has been poisoned, but it is hard to believe that she could murder anyone with a shotgun.
Judging by their corpses, other characters have been killed with a shotgun and none of them seems to have committed suicide as there was no shotgun near their corpses. In other words, if Kanon = Shanon then the murders were impossible as nobody could carry the final murder before Battler was killed by the 00:00 "accident" (Maria, as mentioned, is too young to use the gun). If Kanon =/= Shanon, then Kanon either killed the last victim or the culprit and somehow died at the end (by suicide, accident or inflicted wound).

Actually, if the board is turned over, then the ShKanon hints may exist only to mislead us from real clues.

Oh, and I agree with Erika = 0 theory.

Out of Kyrie's group, Kanon was the first to die. In short, Kanon was the 9th victim.

So a Kanon = killer is impossible. At least for that Episode (he's the only one by process of elimination that could do Episode 1, for instance).

And someone on another forum brought up the possibility of Shannon positioning a 'suicide gun' so it falls down the well when she kills herself.

[rogerpepitone]

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

There did seem to be some interesting wordplay with respect to "existence" (存在). Based on the "everyone else" argument and Kinzo does not exist from Episode 5, it sounds like "Person X" and "the corpse of Person X" are being treated as separate entities. We already knew that was the case for the person limit, but it looks like it applies more generally.

"Kinzo does not exist" appears after Bern states "all future references to Kinzo mean 'the living Kinzo'."

Originally Posted by tcaz2

I'm still puzzled on how we have confirmation of there being two separate corpses at least in Episode 3 (and Shannon was confirmed a corpse, so it's not a personality killing or whatever), yet "The only one who can claim Kanon's name is the original person!" jives with the Shkanon theory.

As it should be impossible for Shannon to 'take' Kanon's name with that red.

Personally, I think the fact that either everyone in the mansion would have to be in on it or utterly retarded to not notice it is enough of a strike against it, but...

I mean, Natsuhi barely succeeded in hiding Kinzo for a couple days out of a year before the others got suspicious.

And somehow Kanon and Shannon (and maybe Genji) can hide it for YEARS? Unless Kanon died before-hand and Shannon took his name, of course... but then that goes back to my first paragraph.

Possibilities for Shkannon:
1: The two always were the same person. This works fine with "Only Kanon can use his name", but doesn't work with the body count in episode 3.
2: Kanon died on Oct 3/4 1986, and Shannon's impersonating him. I don't think this is compatible with "Only Kanon can use his name".
3: Shannon died on Oct 3/4 1986, and Kanon's impersonating her. I don't see any contradiction with red text, but I can't understand why it's Kanon's body that keeps disappearing and not Shannon's. (Her body might be too decomposed to pass for fresh.)
4: Both are alive at the time of the conference. (But why is it that Battler never sees them at the same time?)

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by Nayrael

I have not been following the whole tread so forgive me if I am repeating here...

If ShKanon is true, then isn't there something wrong with murders in EP4? I mean, the only possible final killer there is Kanon:

Kinzou is dead at the beginning of the game.
Maria has been poisoned, but it is hard to believe that she could murder anyone with a shotgun.
Judging by their corpses, other characters have been killed with a shotgun and none of them seems to have committed suicide as there was no shotgun near their corpses. In other words, if Kanon = Shanon then the murders were impossible as nobody could carry the final murder before Battler was killed by the 00:00 "accident" (Maria, as mentioned, is too young to use the gun). If Kanon =/= Shanon, then Kanon either killed the last victim or the culprit and somehow died at the end (by suicide, accident or inflicted wound).

If the culprit is someone close to Maria (like Beatrice), they could have given her orders before committing suicide. Even if Maria couldn't use a shotgun herself, she could still hide a shotgun and drink poison. All of the master keys are unaccounted for except the one Battler found, so Maria could even have used one to construct one of the locked rooms.

[Kitsu]

Interestingly, I don't believe that Jessica has ever seen the two of them together...

In a short flashback in episode 6 all three are shown in the garden. Also that would be simple nonsense. You don't live three years togehter with someone and never see them together. I mean it is know Kanon and Shannon are close and Jessica is interested in both of them in somekinda way (love interest and best friend), it is basically impossible

[tcaz2]

It's actually not possible for Maria to have hidden a suicide gun Shannon theoretically used- the well is 30 minutes away on foot unless you run, and Battler found Maria's body with the first twilight victims... which was basically the first thing he did after getting the keys.

Originally Posted by Kitsu

In a short flashback in episode 6 all three are shown in the garden. Also that would be simple nonsense. You don't live three years togehter with someone and never see them together. I mean it is know Kanon and Shannon are close and Jessica is interested in both of them in somekinda way (love interest and best friend), it is basically impossible

See that's the thing, I think the people that say "OMG SHKANNON IS THE ANSWER" simply don't sit down and consider what it means for the story.

Yes, it makes sense (somewhat, anyway) for some of the tricks, but it's not practical nor is it a useful trick for the culprit to use when committing the murder, and to boot it makes a lot of the scenes and character development seem either trivial, misinformation, or lies.

And all this after the huge speech in Ep5 about 'trusting the author' and Auau thanking Ange for paying attention to the 'black text' too?

It just doesn't make sense. Not from a story stand point, anyway. If anything, it seems like it contradicts several things Ryuukishi has laid out before in terms of themes.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by Kitsu

In a short flashback in episode 6 all three are shown in the garden. Also that would be simple nonsense. You don't live three years togehter with someone and never see them together. I mean it is know Kanon and Shannon are close and Jessica is interested in both of them in somekinda way (love interest and best friend), it is basically impossible

They're never shown together in Ep2, and I don't really trust the Core Arcs anymore. But regardless, I'm starting to subscribe more to the Erika Ball theory than the Shkannon theory because of things like that anyway.

Don't Shannon and Kanon normally live on Nijima when they're not on duty? If they actually lived on the island itself, what would be the point of having other servants?

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by rogerpepitone

"Kinzo does not exist" appears after Bern states "all future references to Kinzo mean 'the living Kinzo'."

That applied only to Bern's own references to Kinzo, if I remember correctly. When Lambda talked about him, she still fully specified "a living Kinzo."

Originally Posted by tcaz

It's actually not possible for Maria to have hidden a suicide gun Shannon theoretically used- the well is 30 minutes away on foot unless you run, and Battler found Maria's body with the first twilight victims... which was basically the first thing he did after getting the keys.

It's Kuwadorian that's 30 minutes away, I think. The well is just a short distance away from the back door of the mansion. Battler would never have been able to find it otherwise.

On the other hand, another argument against it is that Maria would have had to go all the way around the mansion to get back inside, since Krauss's body was slumped against the inside of the back door. (Or was it just "next to" the back door?)

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

If the duel takes place during the game board's time frame then their corpse would probably still count against the number of people... we don't see the person count going down after the first twilight, after all.

Before ep6, the person count has not referred to the number of people who actually exist, but to the maximum number of people who may exist. If someone died, there would be no particular reason to adjust the claim down except to defeat a Person X theory, which Beatrice basically did when it became clear that Kinzo was indeed dead before the game started. However, there was no particular reason she had to do this.

ep6's final red refers to the total number of people. One assumes this number would be adjusted as people die, or that Battler and Beatrice are speaking of the general maximum number of human pieces on the island.

The language is ambiguous; Erika shows up saying she is the 18th person and Battler and Beatrice say that even including her, there are 17. I don't see a contradiction here as such. Erika is saying that she is the 18th human character in the story, which is true insofar as we understand the storyline at that point in ep6 (there are 19 characters, but Kinzo is dead already). Battler and Beatrice's red means one of two things:

1) "If we welcome you, there are 17 people," meaning the number of actual human beings on the island is lower than the number of characters Erika has been led to believe are present. She expected 17+1 and it was 16+1. Shkanon, Nanjo-doesn't-exist, someone-was-already-dead, some theory like that would exist to explain why there are fewer people than characters. Under this interpretation the clauses are taken together and it is assumed Erika has personhood but someone else doesn't.

IF Erika is welcomed
THEN There are 17 people
People + Erika = 17
THEREFORE People = 16

2) "If we welcome you" is a hint to Erika's status as a non-person. Under this interpretation, you separate the clauses. This would mean the number of people is static at 17 regardless of Erika's status. Logically, if Erika's presence or absence doesn't affect the number of real physical human beings, there is no such person. Erika = 0.

WHETHER Erika is welcomed
THEN People = 17
People + Erika = 17
People + 0 = 17
THEREFORE Erika = 0

Also, I always stress this: There is no evidence that Maria is the last person to die in ep4 just because you saw everyone else but her and Battler die in magic scenes. After all, Goldsmith dies last (well, not counting "Beatrice") and we know Kinzo's dead, right?

(Granted, Maria is on the short list of people who could have been the last alive)

[tcaz2]

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

It's Kuwadorian that's 30 minutes away, I think.

Pretty sure it's the well entrance.

I'll check after I'm done playing ME2 for a bit to make sure, though >.>

Still, it doesn't REALLY matter because if Shannon were to make the gun fall down the well it doesn't require Maria in the first place.

EDIT: Just checked. Kyrie asks as they're nearing the well entrance from the inside. So yeah, it's referring to the well entrance. Nanjo says it's 'quite a walk, almost 30 minutes through the forest from here'.