Brexit Vote

[MCAL]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.the...ity-government

Turns out there was a magic money tree after all.

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

I've wondered off and on about Ireland's future in the EU after the UK leaves. I'd imagine that a lot of Irish trade with the Continent goes through Britain. Will Irish shippers have to find naval routes around Britain to reach ports in France, the Netherlands, etc?

I found this. So there are routes going directly from Ireland to the continent. Not sure about things like capacity.

And of course, there is all the trade with the UK itself. No way around for that.

I suppose if the border between the Republic and Ulster was not reimposed then trade might take that route. Wouldn't that require at a minimum a bilateral agreement between the UK and the Republic of Ireland? Could the EU block such a deal as a condition of Irish membership?

I thought part of the whole thing is that you can't deal with with one member of the single market without dealing with all of them. That's the point.

[MCAL]

https://www.google.com/amp/www.bbc.c...s/amp/40520218
This is actually pretty huge.

[Anh_Minh]

The title oversells it. The real agreement's still years away.

[Arabesque]

So, July 17th is here, and the second round of talks have started. But not on the best footing:

David Davis returns from Brexit talks after lightning Brussels trip

After his arrival at the EU’s headquarters on Monday morning, the European Commission released pictures of Mr Davis sitting opposite his EU counterpart, Michel Barnier, with their respective teams. The meeting marked the start of the second round of talks over the UK’s departure from the EU.

While the EU Commission negotiators each sat with a stack of briefing papers in front of them, the UK delegation had none, leading to speculation on Twitter as to whether they had actually brought any. British diplomats said the documents were still in Mr Davis’s bag at the time the photo was taken.

At a brief press conference with Mr Barnier earlier in the morning, the Brexit secretary said that this week’s talks would delve “into the substance of the matter”, and include discussions on Britain’s EU exit bill and citizens rights.

The two sides are planning for four days of negotiations, with Mr Davis returning to Brussels on Thursday to take stock of progress and make preparations for the next round of talks.

The UK minister left Brussels at around midday Brussels time, three hours after he arrived at the commission, with technical work to continue this afternoon in his absence.

Mr Davis headed back to London as tensions mount within the government over Brexit, pitting chancellor Philip Hammond against hardline Brexiters.

The upheaval has even sparked concerns in Brussels.

“It’s a mess. Nobody would want to see them like this,” said one European diplomat working on Brexit negotiations.

The image in question:



Eh? I mean, it was always obvious that the UK is approaching this severely disadvantaged, and the image is worth a thousand words. But at the end of the day, it doesn't really mean much, outside of it being tone deaf on Davis'/UK's PR team part.

Next meeting will be on 20th of July, this Thursday, as Davis comes back to see what state the negotiations had gotten to. Afterwards, the date for the meeting in August will be decided then.

So, not exactly an eventful second sit down, but what is more interesting is the going on's happening before the meeting that ended up causing Davis to leave it so prematurely, and the shift in stance of some European members.

On the UK's side, as mentioned in the article, the battle for who will be replacing May as Tory leader is well underway now. Philip Hammond is the first target, having gotten more than a few news stories about how awful of an MP he is (plus some digs at him as a person), along with tensions rising as both Boris and Davis already making moves to position themselves well for a leadership bid.

To further complicate matters, the 1922 committee backbenchers have written to May that she has their support if she wants to fire Brexit hardliners, since they consider it her duty to see the country through to the end of Brexit in 2019.

And then there is how France has already made it clear that they want a hard Brexit to happen, in part to weaken the City of London and attract the businesses there over to Paris/France. I don't know what the view is in France in regards to this stance, but from reading the Independent, Financial Times and the Economist, it seems to be a widely favored position for taking down a rival and improving their own financial strength.

So, already, it seems everything is falling at the seams.

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by Arabesque

And then there is how France has already made it clear that they want a hard Brexit to happen, in part to weaken the City of London and attract the businesses there over to Paris/France. I don't know what the view is in France in regards to this stance, but from reading the Independent, Financial Times and the Economist, it seems to be a widely favored position for taking down a rival and improving their own financial strength.

Judging by French internet comments... We don't seem to care one way or the other about whether the Brexit will be soft or hard, but we do welcome any business that might come our way. And we're not too proud to beg. Please, giant multinational financial institutions, come to and get taxed in Paris. We have wines and cheeses. We also see whatever perfidy Browne accused us of as nothing more than fair game. Not that you're innocent in that regard.

Personally, I'm afraid it's mostly wasted effort and the lion's share will go to Frankfurt, but who knows?

[DracoS]

Something to keep in mind with the paperwork is the EU team has 27 states feelings and agendas to keep in mind while the UK team has exacly one.

[Arabesque]

Slight correction: the 1922 committee support May firing anyone who is causing chaos in her cabinet, not specifically the hardliners.

Originally Posted by Anh_Minh

Judging by French internet comments... We don't seem to care one way or the other about whether the Brexit will be soft or hard, but we do welcome any business that might come our way. And we're not too proud to beg. Please, giant multinational financial institutions, come to and get taxed in Paris. We have wines and cheeses. We also see whatever perfidy Browne accused us of as nothing more than fair game. Not that you're innocent in that regard.

The French might be opportunistic, but it was the UK themselves who presented this opportunity on a silver and gold decorated plater. Browne seems to forget that France did make moves like this until it was well clear that Brexit (whatever viscosity it becomes) would be the reality of the situation.

I still recall when, before the referendum vote, how any concerns or fears about what would happen to the City of London and the financial center of the country would all be dismissed as Project Fear.

Looks like there was plenty to fear in the end. Well, maybe not for the French.

Originally Posted by Anh_Minh

Personally, I'm afraid it's mostly wasted effort and the lion's share will go to Frankfurt, but who knows?

I had been looking for some journals I read a few months back (but didn't have the foresight to save them, hm), and the general consonances I gathered was that it might work, sort of? The result would likely be that no one city will get the majority of businesses, but most businesses will be keeping tabs and offices everywhere to know which location ends up working best.

The result is that no one European city will manage to become what London is today in the event of an exodus of businesses out of the city, due greatly to the reasons why London became what it is being so unique:

• having been the administrative center of the British Empire and being suited for governing on a global scale from the get go post-Empire collapse,
  
• the geographical location and logistics being very favorable with it being connected with the rest of the world's working hours,
  
• the regulations being in place allowing it to prosper

Compared to that, there isn't any other city in Europe that matches (or matched at the time) with the same conditions to make them an immediate replacement.

I do know that a year ago the New York Times attempted to do a rudimentary search, and while the list they came up with had Frankfurt high, Amsterdam came up first in their analysis, with Paris fifth. So it's not like Paris itself is out of the running yet.

This was before the changes in Paris this year, and perhaps the more aggressive approach will lead to this changing and Paris ends up becoming the world's new financial center.

This is speculation of course, as this will happen on a period of a decade, so the way the chips fall will be apparent by 2030 if not later. So who truly knows indeed.

Originally Posted by DracoS

Something to keep in mind with the paperwork is the EU team has 27 states feelings and agendas to keep in mind while the UK team has exacly one.

I mean, at the end of the day, it amounts to a silly photo. I don't doubt Davis and his team came prepared to the meeting, and when is all said and done, who will actually be using the picture for the meeting that will continue to happen from now on for the next year and a half?

Barnier might have a huge of stack of paper with all the concerns and guidelines of the EU27, but Davis also has a stack of paper with the future of his country. It's just not on this photo.

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by Arabesque

The result is that no one European city will manage to become what London is today in the event of an exodus of businesses out of the city, due greatly to the reasons why London became what it is being so unique:

• having been the administrative center of the British Empire and being suited for governing on a global scale from the get go post-Empire collapse,
  
• the geographical location and logistics being very favorable with it being connected with the rest of the world's working hours,
  
• the regulations being in place allowing it to prosper

I'd add being in an English-speaking country to that list.

[Arabesque]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

I'd add being in an English-speaking country to that list.

Can't believe I forgot that part as well. Yes, the language factor is important. Given that the 2 largest financial cities (London and New York) are located in English speaking countries, I suppose it slipped my mind how the language barrier would affect the ultimate decision on where businesses decide to migrate.

This was the sticking point with the NYT analysis in placing Amsterdam first, since according to their data 90% of the country/city speaks English or have a passing knowledge of the language.

[Anh_Minh]

Come on. We may not speak English, but we'll find some way to mime profanities, so the foreigners don't feel left out.

[Dextro]

Originally Posted by Arabesque

Can't believe I forgot that part as well. Yes, the language factor is important. Given that the 2 largest financial cities (London and New York) are located in English speaking countries, I suppose it slipped my mind how the language barrier would affect the ultimate decision on where businesses decide to migrate.

This was the sticking point with the NYT analysis in placing Amsterdam first, since according to their data 90% of the country/city speaks English or have a passing knowledge of the language.

Don't rule out Dublin. The big international banks already have a large presence there for nearshoring in an EU country with lower employee costs. They're pretty well positioned to take financial jobs away from the city as well.

[James Rye]

Man, those two leaks are pretty embarrassing. First the one with how the British government intends to treat EU workers and citizens in the future, spoiler pretty extreme, and then the second leak where No 10 tried to get support for its Brexit way by having businesses sign a letter where they show said support. Seems like nobody of them has signed so far. They are actually pissed at how little they have a say in this whole talk about shaping the future of Brexit together.

[MrTerrorist]

Theresa May under pressure over ‘secret advice’ on halting Brexit
Prime minister is sent FOI request to publish legal guidance thought to argue that UK can stop EU divorce process at any time

Well, well, well......

[MrTerrorist]

Brexit: Michael Gove says UK voters can change final deal

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by MrTerrorist

Brexit: Michael Gove says UK voters can change final deal

Money: The so-called "divorce bill" will amount to between £35bn and £39bn, Downing Street sources say.

That's funny, because the figures I've heard here are 50 billion €. (40-45, I guess, in £.)

[Haak]

Fellow Leave campaigner Iain Duncan Smith said it had been fascinating to see the EU's reaction after failing to secure a deal in Brussels on Monday.
"They realised they were staring down the eyes of a no-deal, and so they got into action for the first time for many months, and literally drove with the UK government the changes that were necessary to get this thing on track.
"Why? The EU recognises that they really do need and want a free trade arrangement with the UK," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

I want to know what this guy is smoking...

[MCAL]

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-politics-42346192

Glad to see May's decision to call a special election is working out well for her.

[RichardFromMarple]

Originally Posted by MCAL

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-politics-42346192

Glad to see May's decision to call a special election is working out well for her.

Yes thanks to all those misleading polls & believing her own propaganda.

[Anh_Minh]

BREXIT NIGHTMARE: How SECOND transition period could drag exit out until at least 2023

Please no. Just get it over with.