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Old 2009-11-14, 12:00   Link #4221
Jan-Poo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arachanox View Post
I do like the logic of the landslide, but I don't think it could be the "accident" we are looking for simply because I haven't gotten the impression that Rokkenjima has steep enough cliffs to cause such a landslide.

The island does have a steep cliff going along its edges, and it is mentioned that there is a winding path upwards to the mansion, but it is never mentioned that there was any hills or cliffs on the island which were above the elevation of the mansion. We can't assume there's a random mesa next to the mansion which collapsed.

Also, if you believe that the mansion is sufficiently inland to protect it from tsunamis, then I say that the mansion is sufficiently inland to not be affected by a coastal landslide; a situation where perhaps the cliffs around the port collapse. Maybe that whole part of the coastline would fall into the sea, but the mansion is still really far inland exemplified by everyone noting how long the 'long winding path' is.
You didn't get what I said. You don't need a hill near the mansion that crumbled down to the Mansion. The Mansion is on the hill that crumbled down, or rather the cliff. The path is a winding path, and winding paths are done to climb up, that's why it is long. It isn't true that the mansion is really much inland.

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Originally Posted by Arkwright View Post
There's doesn't necessarily have to be a connection between the books and the disaster. If you want another theory, Eva could have just not sold the books that "didn't survive" and hidden them somewhere.
I don't think you have followed my reasoning. How does that explain the fact that at the auction it was explained that the books survived the disaster?

If such an explanation was needed it means that the common knowledge about the disaster that happened in Rokkenjima is something that would make you think books didn't survive.

Let's say it was announced that a bunch of vicious animals devoured the whole family, then the auction didn't need to give such an explanation, because animals do not eat books! So the animal theory is wrong.

You get it now? What Eva actually did or what actually happened to the books is irrelevant.
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Old 2009-11-14, 14:03   Link #4222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
I don't think you have followed my reasoning. How does that explain the fact that at the auction it was explained that the books survived the disaster?

If such an explanation was needed it means that the common knowledge about the disaster that happened in Rokkenjima is something that would make you think books didn't survive.

Let's say it was announced that a bunch of vicious animals devoured the whole family, then the auction didn't need to give such an explanation, because animals do not eat books! So the animal theory is wrong.

You get it now? What Eva actually did or what actually happened to the books is irrelevant.
The second bolded part is related to the point I was trying to make. That is, "what Eva told the public at the auction is irrelevant to the events at the island."

There are two assumptions at work here:

1. "Eva needed to make that statement." Maybe she didn't need to. Perhaps she just threw it out there as part of a post-Rokkenjima cover-up effort. Maybe the public didn't know any more than we do, and the "these books survived the events of 1986" was just said to lead the public in the "natural disaster/fire" direction while still remaining vague about what happened. Or, maybe she just wanted to make the books more interesting to collectors - "These books were present at a catastrophe."

2. "The statement told to the public was true." You said that since animals don't eat books, the statement at the auction disproves the animal theory. But even if the public was told "there was a fire and most of the books were lost," that doesn't mean there actually was a fire, or that the fire didn't happen after animals went on a rampage or whatever. That said, just because books "survived" the events doesn't mean there was some kind of fire or natural disaster. Suppose someone went wild with a gun - that could cause damage to books, as could any sort of fight with significant collateral damage (animals would fit here.) Although, an animal theory is disproved for episode 3 for a different reason (Eva-B's red truth) so that's not really a factor here. In the case of collateral damage, though, it's quite possible that Eva (if she were the culprit) could have started the fire to cover up the signs of what actually happened.

Another thing that comes to mind is that books were an important point of episode 3 in regards to the gold and the epitaph. If books were actually destroyed by a person and not by an event, then you have a possible motive right there.
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Old 2009-11-14, 14:54   Link #4223
Jan-Poo
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You are talking as if Eva could make up that story and feed it to the public. That's not the case.

Eva didn't say a thing of what happened in Rokkenjima. This is well stated in the novel.

So anything that was disclosed to the public does not come from Eva's mouth. Even if Eva told her own story, that wouldn't be very important. What is important is how the media reported the events and it is a given they have contacted the police and other authorities.

In other words such a lie can only have happened if the authorities wanted to cover up the whole story. If the authorities didn't do such a thing then the authorities reported a disaster after finding evidences of it.

At the very least I don't think you can debunk the fact that the media reported that a disaster happened in Rokkenjima in 1986 and that it led to the death of all the Ushiromiya except Eva. Therefore you can't deny the fact that such a story was released with the confirmation from authorities.

after that it's simple logic. If at the auction it was explained that the books survived the disaster, then the general public knows that the disaster is something that could affect books and other goods.


the only point that can be discussed is the reliability of what has been reported by the authorities. If you carefully read my first post about this issue you should remember that I said this only have a 10% chance of being true.

1) It is a conspiracy theory, 98% of the times conspiracy theories are rubbish. I lower this to 90% because this is a fictional story. However nothing so far points to a conspiracy that involves police.
2) The disaster theory is hinted by the end of Ep4
3) Eva being in the Kuwadorian and waiting rescue there also hints that a disaster actually occurred
4) Supposing the police wanted to cover up the whole story. Then in that case they should have removed any kind of proof. However that doesn't really work for me. If that's the case then they should have removed all the stakes and make them disappear. Same with Maria's diary. There is also the bottle they recovered. They had plenty of time to dispose of it, and yet two years after they found it, a fisherman finds another one and they take back from the closet that first message to compare them.

I think this is enough to claim the probability that the police is covering the truth is 10% or lower.
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Old 2009-11-14, 15:26   Link #4224
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Alternately, how about:
1) The police were unable to get sufficient evidence to even prove that anyone else was dead, let alone murdered.
2) The only evidence the police had against Eva was that she was the only apparent survivor.
3) Rather than get risk a slander / libel case, they took the pragmatic position and put the case on the burner. (Though be ready to reopen everything if new evidence turned up.)
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Old 2009-11-14, 15:34   Link #4225
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to think that you'd have to think the witch's record in Ep1 is a total lie, or that it doesn't apply to Ep3.

But even if that was the case why they had to lie about a disaster? They could have simply said, "everyone vanished without leaving a trace".

I also find more probable that they did find the corpses or at least some of them (we know they didn't find Nanjo), in the other case they would have suspected Eva from the start. By other hand if it was a disaster and they have found bodies caught in it, they'd have no reason to suspect Eva and would leave her alone.

Honestly, if Eva was suspected of being a mass murderer I think the social workers wouldn't let her take custody of Ange, at least not until the situation was made clear, however it looks like Eva took Ange with her since the beginning and nothing suggests she was put under trial until the case was reopened two years later.
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Old 2009-11-14, 16:26   Link #4226
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I suppose that's a point, although (as someone said earlier) there would probably be a decent amount of time before the police arrive, so she'd probably have plenty of time to arrange a cover-up of some sort if she wanted to.
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Old 2009-11-14, 17:38   Link #4227
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ah a third party modifying the crime scene?

Certainly that's a possibility, but they had to be very good to make it look like a disaster. Well I guess it is possible to "create" a landslide with some skill...
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Old 2009-11-14, 17:53   Link #4228
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Eva would have had a few hours in which to clean up=, and she had been sick. I'm not sure she could have done it alone.

Perhaps there was damage the mansion in a manner that would have ruined the books that wasn't blamed for the disappearance.

If there were any sort of official explanation for the disappearance, such as a landslide:
- When Okonogi was trying to convince Ange that Eva was innocent, why didn't he say something like "Your parents were killed in a landslide. That's all that happened." Why does he keep using the vague term "accident"?

- Why didn't Ootsuki feel the need to point out discrepancies in the official story?
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Old 2009-11-14, 18:19   Link #4229
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The answer probably lies in all the conjectures that have been made by the "irresponsible talk shows and magazines".

Since all of them claim that Eva killed all of her family, you can imagine they made a lot of conjectures and possible explanation to justify their claims.

The most probable is that they are suspecting that Eva being the rich magnate she is paid the police to stay silent.

Anyway whatever is the story they made up Okonogi assumes Ange knows and that she's going by that explanation, so there's no need for him to tell the official explanation. Okonogi knows that Ange knows that and he knows that there are many possible theories (no matter how wacky they are) to explain what happened placing Eva as the evil mastermind.

As for Otsuki, he said that he's one of the "witch hunters" and witch hunters are trying to explain the Rokkenjima mystery by magic means. So it goes without saying that he doesn't believe in the official story.
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Old 2009-11-14, 18:46   Link #4230
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What exactly does it say about the damage to the books?

And Ootsuki doesn't believe the official theory, but he does know about it.

JFK conspiracy theorists generally start out by attacking claimed discrepancies in the Warren Report; similarly with other conspiracists.
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Old 2009-11-14, 19:16   Link #4231
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Considering the landslide theory it might fit in Ep2's end.

Now I don't know much about landslides, like how fast they occur but at the end we saw Rosa and Maria running away from goats. It's hard to believe that people were actually chasing them at that point. Besides, Rosa had a gun with her so she should be able to handle a few opponents (unless they had guns as well), so maybe she was fighting against something that can't be beaten by a weapon.
Rosa told Maria to run quickly to the shore and swim away from the island, if there were simple pursuers it would make more sense to find a hiding place than tell your daughter to swim in the middle of a typhoon.

Would it be possible that the "goats eating" there actually represent the "landslide crushing", but when Rosa injured her ankle they just couldn't escape in time? A landslide should happen quite suddenly so I don't think that there would time for anyone to escape unless they were already outside or if they caused it (which would more likely suggest that it was a bomb/explosion of some sort). The goats have never been seen killing anyone except at the end of ep2. And of course, it's said that they kill anyone who is left at the end the same way.
Quote:
Afterwards, he/she was torn to pieces
and eaten by the demons,
and went to hell.
At the same time Battler and Kinzo were also seen eaten to pieces by goats, that would fit the timing.
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Old 2009-11-14, 20:14   Link #4232
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It's also stated that they're running away from golden butterflies in the shape of a "hand," which could also be referring to the landslide itself. I've never been, but I assume the way the earth is moving would look like a hand.
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Old 2009-11-14, 20:50   Link #4233
Neofio3
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Originally Posted by ijriims View Post
The event was supposed to be unstoppable.
The issue isn't that its supposed to be unstoppable in universe, but that its unstoppable from a narrative perspective. How are characters in the end supposed to "win" against a landslide? How are characters supposed to "know" about it in the first place, given that a natural disaster is entirely the product of chance?

Unless you posit that the landslide is not a natural disaster, but man-made (which can be prevented or fought), or a Special Person A (a "Rika" if you will), exists to warn people about an entirely unpredictable event.

The only means for survival would be people are somehow not it the mansion at the time it happens, and that would seem a bit... anticlimatic, as far as climaxes go.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arachanox View Post
And yet Eva survived. If it is "unstoppable", it is at least "localized" to not affect Kuwadorian.
Pretty much. This would apply in any "large disaster" type scenario. The point I'm making is that the large disaster would ultimately have to be stoppable, or avoidable, to have our heroes live in the end. Going to Kuwadorian apparently spares you, but why would survivors go to Kuwadorian in the first place? Why would they know to take shelter, before a natural disaster happens? Unless one of them is precognitive, and knows a landslide is going to take place, or a tsunami destroys the mansion, or whatever, wouldn't people just go ahead as they usually did, without any knowledge of their impending doom until its too late?

The above point is of course negated by Eva's existence, so the greater question would be what gave Eva the idea to go to Kuwadorian (what's more, find it, given she previously didn't know where it was), to spare herself from an unpredictable event.

Say, Eva notices a faint rumbling in the distance, and somehow recognizes it as hundreds of tons of rock and earth about to crush the mansion (why would she come to that conclusion?). Would there be time to actually run away from such an event? Rosa (if we go by the theory above) tried that, and died. Running away as the disaster takes place is almost certain to fail. If someone has the idea to move to Kuwadorian then, it must be before such a disaster takes place. But the possibility of a person knowing about a natural calamity before it occurs is next to none.

To stop or avoid such a large disaster, then, there must be an indicator of it. The villain monologing "I have set up 10 tons of explosives in strategic places around the island, making the entire mansion fall into the sea!" is an indicator, as is "I have set up a gigantic explosion, which will destroy the mansion in X minutes!". Finding a man-made setup for such a calamity would work just as well. But a literal act of god gives no warning, and hence characters will not act on it until its already upon them.

Last edited by Neofio3; 2009-11-14 at 21:09.
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Old 2009-11-14, 22:54   Link #4234
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I've got a mixed thoughts on the landslide hypothesis: I think it does accord well with some things (final tips for episode 1, Rosa Musuo), but not others (Okonogi & Ootsuki's comments).

Kinzo has said he would leave nothing behind when he died, and he meant it. He had set up explosives with a dead-man switch (or similar device) that would go off if he did not trigger the device for a certain period of time.

(Is there any record as to what Krauss would typically do after a family conference? Any chance he & the usual residents of Rokkenjima would usually spent the next day away from the island? I wonder if Kinzo merely wanted to remove his own legacy, and timed the device so it would go destroy the mansion on the day after the family conference, when as many people would be off-island as possible. He couldn't predict the typhoon would trap everyone for another day and cause all to be killed in the blast.)

The trigger is connected to the path to Kuwadorian, and Eva and Rosa delayed everything in episode 3 when they found the passage. The mansion was destroyed in a landslide, but some time in the future, when nobody connected it to the Witch's Mass Murder.

No idea why no bodies were officially found in Episode 3. (Kinzo bribed the police in advance?)
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Old 2009-11-14, 23:05   Link #4235
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Originally Posted by rogerpepitone View Post
The trigger is connected to the path to Kuwadorian, and Eva and Rosa delayed everything in episode 3 when they found the passage. )
That's unlikely, since Kuwadorian is several kilometers away from the mansion, and Eva and Rosa were in and out of the passage before anyone makes note of their absence. Most likely, the gold is hidden in a secret passage in the mansion's grounds (and that's what Rosa and Eva found), but was not Kuwadorian itself.

Quote:
Kinzo has said he would leave nothing behind when he died, and he meant it. He had set up explosives with a dead-man switch (or similar device) that would go off if he did not trigger the device for a certain period of time.
Alternatively, there *is* a deadman's switch, and it was a character's job (Genji?) to continuously extend the timer (as per Kinzo's instructions). Only this character is murdered, and hence nobody is extending the timer, leading to the catastrophe. Yes, this is a "Lost" reference.
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Old 2009-11-14, 23:24   Link #4236
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Eva leaves the guesthouse at 9:37. She found the gold around 10:00. ( http://rogerpepitone.webs.com/umineko/U3-notes.html ) To do 2 km is that time is about 6 km/hr, or about 3.7 miles / hr.
They're back at the guesthouse around 10:30. Similar speed on the way back, taking in time spent looking around.
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Old 2009-11-14, 23:53   Link #4237
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Thanks for that. The average human walking speed being 3-4 mph, I guess Kuwadorian itself would be possible, in that case.
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Old 2009-11-15, 09:37   Link #4238
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Didn't Kinzo become the head after the head family was killed due to a fire?
I mean, it could have no relevance on the current plot happening on Rokkenjima, but I find it odd that Kinzo's family all died after one huge fire, and then a couple of generations later, everyone of the Ushiromiya family but Ange dies, be it by murder or by the 'accident' on Rokkenjima.
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Old 2009-11-15, 09:44   Link #4239
Jan-Poo
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Originally Posted by Neofio3 View Post
The issue isn't that its supposed to be unstoppable in universe, but that its unstoppable from a narrative perspective. How are characters in the end supposed to "win" against a landslide? How are characters supposed to "know" about it in the first place, given that a natural disaster is entirely the product of chance?

Unless you posit that the landslide is not a natural disaster, but man-made (which can be prevented or fought), or a Special Person A (a "Rika" if you will), exists to warn people about an entirely unpredictable event.

The only means for survival would be people are somehow not it the mansion at the time it happens, and that would seem a bit... anticlimatic, as far as climaxes go.



Pretty much. This would apply in any "large disaster" type scenario. The point I'm making is that the large disaster would ultimately have to be stoppable, or avoidable, to have our heroes live in the end. Going to Kuwadorian apparently spares you, but why would survivors go to Kuwadorian in the first place? Why would they know to take shelter, before a natural disaster happens? Unless one of them is precognitive, and knows a landslide is going to take place, or a tsunami destroys the mansion, or whatever, wouldn't people just go ahead as they usually did, without any knowledge of their impending doom until its too late?

The above point is of course negated by Eva's existence, so the greater question would be what gave Eva the idea to go to Kuwadorian (what's more, find it, given she previously didn't know where it was), to spare herself from an unpredictable event.

Say, Eva notices a faint rumbling in the distance, and somehow recognizes it as hundreds of tons of rock and earth about to crush the mansion (why would she come to that conclusion?). Would there be time to actually run away from such an event? Rosa (if we go by the theory above) tried that, and died. Running away as the disaster takes place is almost certain to fail. If someone has the idea to move to Kuwadorian then, it must be before such a disaster takes place. But the possibility of a person knowing about a natural calamity before it occurs is next to none.

To stop or avoid such a large disaster, then, there must be an indicator of it. The villain monologing "I have set up 10 tons of explosives in strategic places around the island, making the entire mansion fall into the sea!" is an indicator, as is "I have set up a gigantic explosion, which will destroy the mansion in X minutes!". Finding a man-made setup for such a calamity would work just as well. But a literal act of god gives no warning, and hence characters will not act on it until its already upon them.
The disaster theory to be true must be somehow predictable. In other words, the culprit or Beatrice (in case they are different persons) must know the disaster is going to happen.

It can be either that the disaster is set to happen through explosives (though evidences should be found), or that there is a high chance for it to happen and the culprit is making a bet in Kinzo's style.

A landslide could also be triggered by other means anyway, if the terrain is already in dangerous conditions, removing trees in certain places and letting rocks fall down might trigger a domino effect, but well this is wild speculation.

As for the anti-climatic part, I don't know if it can really be said that. I think there is a whole lot of successful hollywood movies were the story only revolves around a group of people escaping from a disaster. Are they all anti-climatic because the protagonists merely escape instead of stopping the disaster?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vega Lyra View Post
Didn't Kinzo become the head after the head family was killed due to a fire?
I mean, it could have no relevance on the current plot happening on Rokkenjima, but I find it odd that Kinzo's family all died after one huge fire, and then a couple of generations later, everyone of the Ushiromiya family but Ange dies, be it by murder or by the 'accident' on Rokkenjima.
I don't remember if it was a fire, I know it happened because of the great kanto earthquake, either way it was a disaster in a large scale.
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Old 2009-11-15, 11:03   Link #4240
LyricalAura
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An unpreventable landslide that nobody knows about... That would be like Rule X, the game that always begins on June 20th that Bernkastel can absolutely never win, right? Unless there is that Special Person A like Neofio3 suggested -- but Battler's and possibly Bernkastel's positions are both totally committed to the nonexistence of that person.

Last edited by LyricalAura; 2009-11-15 at 11:14.
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