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Old 2020-09-16, 07:19   Link #741
Guardian Enzo
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My favorite part was when he said COVID-19 would be stopped by "herd mentality".
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Old 2020-09-16, 18:31   Link #742
mangamuscle
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Join Date: May 2011
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kari-no-sugata II View Post
538 currently give Biden a 30 in 100 chance of a "landslide" victory (double digit margin). Wouldn't that be enough?
Enough for Biden to win? Yes. Enough for Trump to accept defeat? No. Remember most trump followers like to believe they are the word of reason when the simple truth is that they are swayed by emotions (remember, fear leads to hate, hate leads to the dark times we are living in). Trump does not have to show proof, he can retweet conspiracy theories about forged mail in votes and what not and his followers will drink the kool aid with delight each and every time.
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Old 2020-09-16, 18:42   Link #743
kari-no-sugata II
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mangamuscle View Post
Enough for Biden to win? Yes. Enough for Trump to accept defeat? No. Remember most trump followers like to believe they are the word of reason when the simple truth is that they are swayed by emotions (remember, fear leads to hate, hate leads to the dark times we are living in). Trump does not have to show proof, he can retweet conspiracy theories about forged mail in votes and what not and his followers will drink the kool aid with delight each and every time.
If you're right then such a scenario would likely be catastrophic.
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Old 2020-09-16, 18:57   Link #744
Guardian Enzo
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https://twitter.com/JournalistJG/sta...324295168?s=20
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Old 2020-09-16, 20:06   Link #745
Key Board
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Yes, I hope government officials realize that there are some things that can not be solved with just #voteblue

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Old 2020-09-18, 03:27   Link #746
ramlaen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo View Post
This video is a great example of the koolaid I spoke of, might as well have had this chyron for the Step 1.

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Old 2020-09-19, 10:04   Link #747
kari-no-sugata II
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Decent summary of the state of the polls vs the punditry:
https://unherd.com/2020/09/is-donald-trump-toast/

Putting it simply: just because the polls were off a bit in 2016 (an average sized polling error), there's no reason to expect the exact same thing to happen in same way again. Genuine pollsters have plenty of motivation to get things right and are always adjusting their methodology and it's entirely possible that they could overcorrect, for example. So don't think that you can predict the degree let alone the direction of any polling errors.

Two things I'd add to the article: polls in 2018 were generally quite accurate and in this year compared to 2016 there's a lot of high quality polling of battleground states.
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Old 2020-09-19, 22:29   Link #748
SeijiSensei
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Not weighting for education was the principal source of error in 2016. That was only somewhat the fault of the pollsters because the correlation between having a college degree and voting Democratic was considerably greater in 2016 than in any previous year. Pretty much any serious pollster weights by education these days.

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Old 2020-09-20, 07:01   Link #749
Guardian Enzo
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Historically the polling error in. 2016 was quite normal - less than 2 points. The problem was that those 2 points came almost all in the upper Midwest and PA.
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Old 2020-09-20, 14:48   Link #750
SeijiSensei
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The national polls were Clinton +3; she won by two.

State polling, however, was pretty poor in the competitive states. On the other hand, Trump won Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania by fewer than 80,000 votes. Polls are not that accurate.

https://www.politicsbythenumbers.org...-mean-a-thing/
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Old 2020-09-20, 15:34   Link #751
Ithekro
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And winning by a super majority in California does nothing special over the electors gained.
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Old 2020-09-20, 17:30   Link #752
Guardian Enzo
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Much more focus on state polling this cycle. But also Trump has the full apparatus of power to suppress the vote.
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