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Old 2010-11-23, 13:02   Link #9961
Azumanga Davo
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Join Date: Oct 2010
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I believe if SK needs to invade NK, it has to do it sooner rather than later. True, NK outnumbers SK in troops, but with hugely limited supply lines and almost certainly a finite amount of artillery to use, how long can NK last? Let's face it, China are almost certainly fed up with Kim's antics lately and Russia are a bit miffed about the North's rather large mouth as well. The dispute as it is would certainly not be helping the regional economy of both of those nations either, who would most certainly welcome a better policy of trading access. Both Russia and China have enough problems with Georgia/Chechnya and Turkistan/Tibet anyway, they aren't exactly overly thrilled at fighting the corner of a nation neither would be able to own outright anyway.

It requires a brave move on the part of the South though, but what would they prefer, a few years of hard fought war or many decades of Kim and his dismal dynasty making empty promises of nuking the blinking peninsula?
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Old 2010-11-23, 13:06   Link #9962
Xellos-_^
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom Bombadil View Post
Something similar to 1 & 2 have been tried before. They are not very effective. If all the reports are true, then the north is going to collapse if China stops to provide aid. So it just depends on how far the Chinese government want to go. As for 3, if the South has the gut to do it, they had already done it after their ship sunk.
Surprisingly enough, SK already return fire.
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Old 2010-11-23, 13:09   Link #9963
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hey Missus View Post
I believe if SK needs to invade NK, it has to do it sooner rather than later. True, NK outnumbers SK in troops, but with hugely limited supply lines and almost certainly a finite amount of artillery to use, how long can NK last? Let's face it, China are almost certainly fed up with Kim's antics lately and Russia are a bit miffed about the North's rather large mouth as well. The dispute as it is would certainly not be helping the regional economy of both of those nations either, who would most certainly welcome a better policy of trading access. Both Russia and China have enough problems with Georgia/Chechnya and Turkistan/Tibet anyway, they aren't exactly overly thrilled at fighting the corner of a nation neither would be able to own outright anyway.

It requires a brave move on the part of the South though, but what would they prefer, a few years of hard fought war or many decades of Kim and his dismal dynasty making empty promises of nuking the blinking peninsula?
the real problem would be after SK adsorb NK and what you do with the NK army at that point. they don't have any real life skills but is arm and has little to lose, not a good combination. Also the amount money needed to reconstruct the North is going to be enormous. Is the rest of the world besides the USA ready to help defray some of that cost? and is the SK public ok with the high taxes need to generate the money need to rebuilt the north.
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Old 2010-11-23, 13:09   Link #9964
Azumanga Davo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xellos-_^ View Post
Surprisingly enough, SK already return fire.
Unless someone happened to have directed a satellite over the spots hit at the time, we may never know what they struck for a long time yet.
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Old 2010-11-23, 13:11   Link #9965
Azumanga Davo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xellos-_^ View Post
the real problem would be after SK adsorb NK and what you do with the NK army at that point. they don't have any real life skills but is arm and has little to lose, not a good combination. Also the amount money needed to reconstruct the North is going to be enormous. Is the rest of the world besides the USA ready to help defray some of that cost? and is the SK public ok with the high taxes need to generate the money need to rebuilt the north.
Well, put that muscle to good use. Let them have a reuniting period for a while, then mobilise the lot of them to start the rebuilding process. Many nations around the world can go very far on so little money, it justs a good amount of hands to make light work.
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Old 2010-11-23, 13:24   Link #9966
Jinto
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I rather fear for the Koreans if the USA and China decide, that a proxy civil war is a profitable business. :/

On the other side... a proxy cold war is more profitable... so maybe my fears are just hyped. ^^'
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Old 2010-11-23, 13:38   Link #9967
SaintessHeart
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jinto View Post
I rather fear for the Koreans if the USA and China decide, that a proxy civil war is a profitable business. :/
Considering that SK accounts for a large percentage of the world's shipbuilding industry, and that both Koreas seem to have a monopoly over the world's kimchi supply, it is nowhere profitable for the rest of the world to sit there and watch them duke it out.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jinto View Post
On the other side... a proxy cold war is more profitable... so maybe my fears are just hyped. ^^'
Cold wars don't generate as much revenue as actual conflicts for arms industries since materiel and intelligence are constantly exhausted, and replacement orders are real time. This leads to the increase in the number of transactions and therefore generate a larger and more consistent flow of cash/credit between suppliers and the warring states.

Interestingly, I had a Korean classmate who once baited the more trendy girls in my class with regards to this topic, he said that if both Koreas go to war, Japan would have a duopoly on Asian female fashion with Taiwan. So how would you guys like zettai ryouiki to be monopolised by Japan?
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Old 2010-11-23, 13:55   Link #9968
ganbaru
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Join Date: Dec 2007
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Woman sentenced to death by stoning likely to be spared from execution
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle1810122/
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Old 2010-11-23, 14:24   Link #9969
AnimeFan188
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US launches giant eavesdropping satellite

"The United States has placed in orbit a vast reconnaissance satellite reputed to
be the largest eavesdropping device ever launched into space."

See:

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/US...llite_999.html


Just in time to monitor the latest Korean bruhaha.
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Old 2010-11-23, 14:39   Link #9970
bladeofdarkness
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maybe i missed it, but does is there an actually statement for WHY N.K attacked that island ?
did they officially state an actual reason for it at any point ?
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Old 2010-11-23, 14:43   Link #9971
ganbaru
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness View Post
maybe i missed it, but does is there an actually statement for WHY N.K attacked that island ?
did they officially state an actual reason for it at any point ?
They are claiming than SK attacked first
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Old 2010-11-23, 15:06   Link #9972
flying ^
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In 2005 the US revised its declared nuclear political strategy, the Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations, to emphasize the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons preemptively against an adversary possessing weapons of mass destruction or overwhelming conventional forces. Whether the Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP) has been revised accordingly is uncertain, but possible. This could include a preemptive strike against China if it appeared they were readying their nuclear forces for attack.
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Old 2010-11-23, 15:19   Link #9973
ganbaru
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flying ^ View Post
In 2005 the US revised its declared nuclear political strategy, the Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations, to emphasize the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons preemptively against an adversary possessing weapons of mass destruction or overwhelming conventional forces. Whether the Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP) has been revised accordingly is uncertain, but possible. This could include a preemptive strike against China if it appeared they were readying their nuclear forces for attack.
But I belive than they revised again its nuclear strategy after Obama's election, so I don't think than the ''Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations'' is still valid.
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Old 2010-11-23, 15:22   Link #9974
Anh_Minh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hey Missus View Post
Well, put that muscle to good use. Let them have a reuniting period for a while, then mobilise the lot of them to start the rebuilding process. Many nations around the world can go very far on so little money, it justs a good amount of hands to make light work.
Working hard for little money is fine when you're dirt poor to start with, which SK isn't.
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Old 2010-11-23, 15:46   Link #9975
Kamui4356
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf View Post
The last time war came to the northern part of the Korean peninsula, it ended badly for the largely American-led invasion, no thanks to the human-wave tactics of the People's Liberation Army of China.
That isn't a fair statement to either side in the conflict.
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Old 2010-11-23, 15:47   Link #9976
Xellos-_^
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf View Post

And he's likely doing it because he knows that North Korea can pretty much act with impunity. The last time war came to the northern part of the Korean peninsula, it ended badly for the largely American-led invasion, no thanks to the human-wave tactics of the People's Liberation Army of China.
it is not really the same thing this time around. besides the politicians tied McArthur's hands. He wanted to use nukes but they said no.
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Old 2010-11-23, 16:00   Link #9977
Kamui4356
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xellos-_^ View Post
it is not really the same thing this time around. besides the politicians tied McArthur's hands. He wanted to use nukes but they said no.
Which was a good thing. At worst it would have lead to the Soviets becoming directly involved. At best it would have established a precedent that nuclear weapons was acceptable in regional conflicts, greatly accelerating proliferation as they would no longer be seen as a deterrent but as something a modern military needs to have and use to win wars.
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Old 2010-11-23, 16:15   Link #9978
Nosauz
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xellos-_^ View Post
it is not really the same thing this time around. besides the politicians tied McArthur's hands. He wanted to use nukes but they said no.
Well see if MacArthur had his way Russian and Chinese interests would have been intertwined and the collapse of Soviet Union during Regan's hay day would not have occurred, the Chinese already were at an impasse with the Russians, unwilling to be their satelite as most Asian countries have this type of pride, but with Nuclear weapons China could only shackle itself to the Soviet Union, and with out the collapse of the Soviets the growth that we enjoyed in the 90s would not have been as great, and the overall power of "American" corporations would not have such over arching influence. Also it would be a dramatically different world, because you don't have access to the cheap labor in China, instead the Soviets are given that advantage, and instead of American Supremacy you instead have a split between the Soviets and Americans, also if MacArthur used his weapons, at that time the Soviets had developed their weapons, and it wasn't until Containment was applied on the Soviets that the tech race made it so that the Soviets were out paced in weaponry and scale of production, but after a couple of nuclear warhead salvos any advantage to be garnered from the weapons would have been squandered.
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Old 2010-11-23, 16:34   Link #9979
JMvS
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SaintessHeart View Post
Oh in the 21st century it IS. Unless you can find an alternative for neodymium, you can say goodbye to any memory storage device if the embargo hits really hard.

And since China provides 97% of the world's rare metals, you might want to reassess your statement with regards to "large reserve" and geographic landmasses; providing the entire world with a monopoly of such a resource means the land is rich in it, and that has something got to do with geography and natural occurrence of the resource, not politics.



And threaten the world's kimchi supply.
Actually you are quite mistaken here (at least regarding REE supply, for kimchi I don't have any data ).

REE (Rare Earth Elements), despite their names, are actually not that rare, and reserves are relatively well scattered across the globe.

The US even used to be 1st producer, before they shut down their facilities, for processing the ore into useful, refined material, is an extremely polluting activity.

And the Chinese monopoly is no accident: it is the direct product of 30 years of economic warfare: now the Chinese are close to being the only ones producing refining REE, after discouraging former competitors with their low prices and disregards of pollution.

And if the US and Australia are resuming ore extraction, there's still the problem of all processing facilities being in China, and the lack of interest of anybody else to create such radioactive polluting facilities.

See links below for more details.

Quote:
Chinese embargo on Rare Earth Elements exports.

Quote:
China mines 95 percent of the world’s rare earth elements, which have broad commercial and military applications, and are vital to the manufacture of products as diverse as cellphones, large wind turbines and guided missiles. Any curtailment of Chinese supplies of rare earths is likely to be greeted with alarm in Western capitals, particularly because Western companies are believed to keep much smaller stockpiles of rare earths than Japanese companies.
China dominating not only extraction but also extremely polluting refining.

Quote:
China feels entitled to call the shots because of a brutally simple environmental reckoning: It currently controls most of the globe’s rare earths supply not just because of geologic good fortune, although there is some of that, but because the country has been willing to do dirty, toxic and often radioactive work that the rest of the world has long shunned.

Despite producing 95 percent of the world’s rare earths, China has only 37 percent of the world’s proven reserves. Sizable deposits are known to exist in the United States, Canada, Australia, India and Brazil, among other places.

Many of those countries, responding to the rising demand for rare earths and alarmed by the recent embargo, are now scrambling to develop new mines or renovate ones long considered not to be worth the effort. That includes an abandoned mine in California that the American company Molycorp is trying to refurbish.

But experts say that any meaningful new production from outside China is at least five years away, and that it will come with its own environmental cost calculus.
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Old 2010-11-23, 16:41   Link #9980
SaintessHeart
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JMvS View Post
Actually you are quite mistaken here (at least regarding REE supply, for kimchi I don't have any data ).

REE (Rare Earth Elements), despite their names, are actually not that rare, and reserves are relatively well scattered across the globe.

The US even used to be 1st producer, before they shut down their facilities, for processing the ore into useful, refined material, is an extremely polluting activity.

And the Chinese monopoly is no accident: it is the direct product of 30 years of economic warfare: now the Chinese are close to being the only ones producing refining REE, after discouraging former competitors with their low prices and disregards of pollution.

And if the US and Australia are resuming ore extraction, there's still the problem of all processing facilities being in China, and the lack of interest of anybody else to create such radioactive polluting facilities.

See links below for more details.
I do understand that REE isn't exactly rare, but rather it is environmentally polluting to produce. I studied Chemistry back in high school.

As for kimchi, since it is a Korean product, it must be produced in Korea, right? *puts on a blonde wig and wears fake 36C boobs*
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