[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni Chiru - Ep. 5 End of the golden witch

[WitchOfDoubt]

* The Brown Truth is my attempt to make a point about the clock-and-knock vs. no-knock argument in an indirect way. I do not intend to use it on these forums outside of this particular discussion, as it gets old very quickly.

* It is nearly impossible to convince a reluctant party that they are using the Brown Truth unless they come to that realization on their own. The Brown Truth can deny the Blue Truth, the Red Truth, AND the Golden Truth with equal vehemence.

* I expected Aura to understand the meaning of the Brown Truth from the very start.

* The Brown Truth becomes more effective when multiple people use it simultaneously. I would view assistance in this matter with gratitude.

(Edited to clarify a point.)

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by WitchOfDoubt

In any case, if the DST theory is at all plausible, it is an avenue of attack. The real challenge for a "knock existed" reader lies in explaining what appears to be impossible - that a human made that knock. This is a game between uv and I, who both support the knock-existed theory, and those who would declare so many characters to be liars!

*ahem*

Hah, what kind of irresponsible babbling is that? Knox's 8th, it is forbidden to solve the case with clues that have not been presented! Not one line in the entire story ever established that the mansion didn't use standard Japanese time. So long as your argument is nothing more than a Devil's Proof, why not swallow small bombs and die!?

[WitchOfDoubt]

Not one line in the entire story ever established that the mansion didn't use standard Japanese time.

Indirect clues are still clues. If the game establishes that clocks are important (it shows clock movements constantly), establishes that a particular time is critical, and establishes that Kinzo is an eccentric old man who runs a Western-style mansion and accumulated his wealth in wartime, this creates a plausible inference that the mansion uses DST, which was actually introduced in Japan in the postwar era.

If all clues had to lead to immediate, direct, certain, and obvious key deductions, many good detective stories would collapse. It is allowable to make a chain of reasonable inferences such as these, especially if we are trying to set up a reasonable theory such as the clock theory to work from, rather than prove outright that it is the best theory right out of the starting gate.

Clues must be present as signposts to a solution, but they do not necessarily point directly at the solution. Only generally towards it, so that the detective and the reader can fill in the gaps with additional inferences and clues and arrive at a sensible solution.

A Devil's Proof would be suggesting the possibility that the mansion ran on Arabia Standard Time. It could have, but we have no clues suggesting that we should even think along those lines.

(Hurried edit: If you don't like this proof, let's try Chessboard Thinking!

I cannot see any argument that spares the people inside the dining room from dishonesty, save from the clock argument. It is true that if the clocks are all accurate and no DST is used, then the people in the dining room must be lying.

But this means that If they are not all lying, then there must be something wrong with the clocks!

By this logic, any clue that points to the honesty of any one of those six, any clue that hints that they could not pull off such a conspiracy, any clue that clears them at all... is a clue that the clocks were using a different time!)

[LyricalAura]

Regardless of what time zone is used by the mansion residents, what evidence is there suggesting that times given in red truth refer to a different time zone from that? If your only basis is that you don't like the red, you may as well say that Lambda's giving times from Zimbabwe.

[AuraTwilight]

For Rokkenjima, October 6th comes at the same time it does for the rest of Japan. Therefore, it must abide by the same time zones, or else the passage of days and nights would be out of sync.

[WitchOfDoubt]

I will admit a fault here. I have used the phrase "time zone" sloppily when "Daylight Savings Time" is a more elegant step.

Regardless of what time zone is by the mansion residents, what evidence is there suggesting that times given in red truth refer to a different time zone from that?

Let me put it this way. At my alma mater, students had the following tradition, a "negative-time burger run:"

One example of a successful run would be leaving the campus at 1:15 AM, buying a hamburger, then returning at 1:05 AM on the same day.

They did not need to physically cross any time-zone boundaries in order to do this.

I am pretty sure that the above statements follow the literal exact rules of the Red Truth. I can attest that this was actually done.

---

For Rokkenjima, October 6th comes at the same time it does for the rest of Japan. Therefore, it must abide by the same time zones, or else the passage of days and nights would be out of sync.

Passages of days and nights ARE out of sync. The time of sunset and sunrise is constantly changing through the year. Even synchronizing the midnight transition is not really a big deal. It would not be difficult for people to adjust to living in a mansion that's one hour off the rest of Japan. Indeed, different regions of Japan have, in the past, been out-of-sync in precisely this way.

Another argument: One reason that the Japanese resented DST was that it forced poor people to work from dawn to dusk in postwar conditions of very little food. However, for a sufficiently wealthy person, staying on DST would be a form of conspicuous consumption and a way of flaunting his ability to work long hours and feed his mansion staff. This is somewhat Kinzo.

Now, on to the next problem - the letter and the knock themselves. I have an excellent solution to both of these that resolves all issues, but am too tired to post it now. Perhaps later!

[AuraTwilight]

Ultimately, nothing suggests this theory, so it doesn't matter.

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by WitchOfDoubt

Let me put it this way. At my alma mater, students had the following tradition, a "negative-time burger run:"

One example of a successful run would be leaving the campus at 1:15 AM, buying a hamburger, then returning at 1:05 AM on the same day.

They did not need to physically cross any time-zone boundaries in order to do this.

This feat is only possible on the day of the "fall back" between the hours of 1:00 and 2:00. In 1986, "fall back" occurred in the United States on October 26. Furthermore, according to US standard, the clock jumps back from 2:00 to 1:00, not 1:00 to midnight. Therefore, even if Kinzo is using US daylight saving time, even if he got the date wrong by nearly a month, no double midnight would occur!

[ErenselTheJester]

Originally Posted by AuraTwilight

Ultimately, nothing suggests this theory, so it doesn't mater.

A theory can be forged as long as someone can find the evidence to support it. WitchOfDoubt found evidence, and so his theory holds plausibility.

Now, LyricalAura's right, the only a double midnight could happen is if the clocks were switched an hour later than when the event happened or if the event happened at 1:00 and they switced times at that exact moment, which there is no evidence of.

[AuraTwilight]

Technically, Erensel's Red Truth is false. :3 There is no evidence for WitchofDoubt's idea, only a hypothesis.

[WitchOfDoubt]

Therefore, even if Kinzo is using US daylight saving time, even if he got the date wrong by nearly a month, no double midnight would occur!

Why would he use US-style DST? Why not use Western Standard Time (WST) DST? WST was used in Taiwan and parts of Okinawa back in Kinzo's youth.

Western Standard Time for a Western-style mansion. Oh, WST is only used in Australia now, I believe, but...

There, where WST still holds out (Taiwan now uses 'China/Central Standard Time'), Daylight Savings Time shifts on precisely...

... the first weekend in October.

(Note: The above can also be written in brown..)

In conclusion:

* Kinzo likes Taiwan.
* Kinzo runs a Western-style mansion.
* Taiwan used Western Standard Time back in Kinzo's youth, complete with Daylight Savings.
* In places that use Western Standard Time, Daylight Savings begins on the first weekend in October.

You can write it off as a coincidence, but how strong does a coincidence have to be before it is evidence?

... now, why exactly did you assume that Kinzo would use United States DST? I mean, I never said otherwise, but if you walk into traps so easily, you'll never win at Witch's Chess.

[Judoh]

I'm sorry but specifically The Day Daylight Savings time shifts in WST is Sunday

I think you'll find the clock chimed at midnight on October 4th 1986 which was a Saturday.

Moreover

Officially, the change to and from DST takes place at 2:00 am local standard time (which is 3:00 am DST) on the appropriate Sunday.

Seems like you kind of went even farther from midnight...

The above can also be written in brown.

Brown truth? Sounds gross... It's not a distant cousin to the brown note is it?

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by WitchOfDoubt

Why would he use US-style DST? Why not use Western Standard Time (WST) DST? WST was used in Taiwan and parts of Okinawa back in Kinzo's youth.

Indeed. However... The WST established by Japan in 1895 and the modern WST, which denotes Australian Western Standard Time, are not the same legal entity, even though they both refer to the UTC+8:00 time zone. Daylight Saving Time in particular is a feature of national policy and has no connection to which zone the nation is in.

So, why would Kinzo choose to align himself with western Australia (which only occasionally feels like trying out DST anyway)?

[unsuspectingvisitor]

Off Topic reply.

hey guys, i kinda notice something weird on ep5. Dlanor said to Battler and Virgilia that she gave Cornelia a Red truth that the windows was never opened after it started raining but cornelia wasn't able to use it.
What do you guys think about this? i want to know.
I kinda have an idea but im not sure whether its right.

[AuraTwilight]

Possibly the same reason Dlanor just blocked people form using the window in EP6's Logic Error.

Arbitrary Bullshit to create drama.

[Cao Ni Ma]

Well they stated that someone prevented them from using it, so it was either Lambda or Bernkastel. Anyways, if it was either of these two it was for the purpose of leaving an escape window for Kinzo. The whole issue with incriminating Natsuhi depended on him being alive and moving about.

[unsuspectingvisitor]

Originally Posted by AuraTwilight

Possibly the same reason Dlanor just blocked people form using the window in EP6's Logic Error.

Arbitrary Bullshit to create drama.

I don't get what you mean by "Arbitrary Bullshit".

Originally Posted by Cao Ni Ma

Well they stated that someone prevented them from using it, so it was either Lambda or Bernkastel. Anyways, if it was either of these two it was for the purpose of leaving an escape window for Kinzo. The whole issue with incriminating Natsuhi depended on him being alive and moving about.

yeah that's a possibility. Dlanor noticed that too but what's the point? why are they doing that to Natsuhi. She is just a piece on the gameboard right?.

anyway, I think cornelia wasn't able to use that Red truth because Rudolf opened the window while raining.

[LyricalAura]

You know, even if Lambda prevented the red from being used, there wasn't actually anything stopping Piece Erika from pointing it out.

[Kylon99]

I thought they wanted to 'ensure' that Kinzo could escape into the forest, i.e. not pin him down so that they could use him as an accomplice of Natsuhi later. So they gave the victory to Battler first in order to incriminate Natsuhi later.

Also.

The Browth Truth is something like Fridge Horror on TV Tropes (of which I will not link here as I do not want people disappearing for several months into that site... :3). Basically, it's something that is said which may or may not seem innocuous, but ultimately causes you to go "Oh SH--" through the horror of dawning realization. And thus the color, brown. How's that? 8)

[AuraTwilight]

I don't get what you mean by "Arbitrary Bullshit".

It happened "Just because", with no good reason for it.

Or rather, Ryukishi had it happen so he could do something he thought was more clever, not what would logically be done in that situation.

Honestly, it's something he relies on a bit too much, like how in EP6, Dlanor puts a ban on making reds about the window. For no good reason. Just to mess with the reader.

The Browth Truth is something like Fridge Horror on TV Tropes (of which I will not link here as I do not want people disappearing for several months into that site... :3). Basically, it's something that is said which may or may not seem innocuous, but ultimately causes you to go "Oh SH--" through the horror of dawning realization. And thus the color, brown. How's that? 8)

In my opinion, that's sort of lame, since it's entirely dependent on subjective emotional responses.

And most of WitchOfDoubts' statements can't possibly fit that criteria, such as This is a game between uv and I, who both support the knock-existed theory, and those who would declare so many characters to be liars!