Xbox One

[Roger Rambo]

Originally Posted by Jazzrat

Call me cynical but I think the higher ups (board of directors) probably took notice of the share price drop after E3 than the media coverage surrounding it. People that high up generally look at things very differently from normal people.

There is one good thing that may come from this though, a change in leadership may help rub off some of the terrible PR image Microsoft had assuming the successor doesn't have Bobby Kotick level of public image among the gaming community.

Well yeah. Ultimately almost everything an executive can imagine that's bad can basically be simplified to "hurts stock price"

Though the fact the warning that things had gone wrong came from stock/media coverage certainly puts the games division leadership in a precarious position.


Hopefully Microsoft picks some more PR savvy individuals to take charge this time around. They certainly can't afford to bungle at this point.

[4Tran]

Mattrick leaving Microsoft has been in play since April, so it has nothing to do with the Xbone fiasco. However, anyone who replaces him is going to try to fulfill the same vision that the console was designed for, so there shouldn't be any major changes unless Microsoft is forced to make them. The bigger question is what's going to come out of the reorganization taking place there right now. That will have a much bigger effect on policies and such.

[Westlo]

Originally Posted by GDB

I'm more surprised someone at Zynga thought, "This kind of guy, this guy right here... this is what we need."

His track record with the 360 speaks for itself, it will be the #1 console of this gen in America, and already overtook the Wii in the UK.

[GDB]

Originally Posted by Westlo

His track record with the 360 speaks for itself, it will be the #1 console of this gen in America, and already overtook the Wii in the UK.

So in ther words he's good at expanding what's there, but utterly sucks at envisioning the next step? Guess that'd be good for a web-game based company.

[4Tran]

While I think that Microsoft has made a lot of major mistakes with the Xbone, I wouldn't blame Mattrick all that much. Most of those problems stem from the Xbone's vision and media focus, and he wouldn't be the person who made that call. Sure he did a terrible job defending the product, but that was sort of an impossible task. I think that he can make quite a bit of difference at Zynga.

[Vajra]

I fear that all of the bad publicity and unwanted/unnecessary implementations done to the XBOX-1 will end Microsoft as a console company; if this happens then Sony will become complacent and could implement everything XB1 had intended to do concerning DRM and region lock.

[Chaos2Frozen]

Fortunately or Unfortunately, the Xbox fanbase are still strong in North America so they wouldn't fail that badly.

[Nightengale]

Originally Posted by Chaos2Frozen

Fortunately or Unfortunately, the Xbox fanbase are still strong in North America so they wouldn't fail that badly.

This.

In the worst case scenario, the XB1 would still grab at least 40-45% of the US console market share.

If we assume an 85 million core-gamer base, that's 35 million, which is no small amount. And they'll sell 'decently' too in other countries, sufficient to bolster its install base further.

As much as the doom and gloom of the XB1 is paraded daily, for them to move 40-50 million units of XB1 shouldn't be difficult, and with that kind of install base, 3rd-party devs will still develop for both consoles, as both consoles will have an install base too large to be ignored.

[Jazzrat]

Originally Posted by 4Tran

While I think that Microsoft has made a lot of major mistakes with the Xbone, I wouldn't blame Mattrick all that much. Most of those problems stem from the Xbone's vision and media focus, and he wouldn't be the person who made that call. Sure he did a terrible job defending the product, but that was sort of an impossible task. I think that he can make quite a bit of difference at Zynga.

A lot of folks may not realized but Microsoft always had the vision of Xbox being the media center for the living room since the original Xbox. The war for the living room have been going on for quite awhile and it's not only the console maker but electronic appliance giant like LG & Samsung as well. The console is more often a trojan horse these days for Microsoft and Sony to bring in other business as well.

As for the blame, I think it's a bit of yes and no, Mattrick is the head of entertainment and it's his responsibility but corporate politics can often twist events beyond his control and who knows what's been going in within Microsoft itself.

Originally Posted by Sakuranbo

I fear that all of the bad publicity and unwanted/unnecessary implementations done to the XBOX-1 will end Microsoft as a console company; if this happens then Sony will become complacent and could implement everything XB1 had intended to do concerning DRM and region lock.

I wish more folks think like that but eh well, gaming community can be fanatical and crazy at times. I don't think Microsoft will be pulling out anytime soon barring a meltdown on their key profit maker. They already have a stranglehold on corporate market so they'll be continuing to expand on the consumer market.

Originally Posted by Nightengale

This.

In the worst case scenario, the XB1 would still grab at least 40-45% of the US console market share.

I think that remains to be seen. It's not unheard of for products to snowball out of control in sales and stifle the competitors and we have seen that before during the NES and PS2 era. The mass consumer will generally go for the trending item and they present the bigger proportion slice of the gaming market.

[4Tran]

Originally Posted by Sakuranbo

I fear that all of the bad publicity and unwanted/unnecessary implementations done to the XBOX-1 will end Microsoft as a console company; if this happens then Sony will become complacent and could implement everything XB1 had intended to do concerning DRM and region lock.

Sony dominated during the PS2 era, and there still was more variety and experimentation and decent policies than than ever before. If they win out again this time around, let's hope that they can be benevolent overlords again.

Originally Posted by Nightengale

This.

In the worst case scenario, the XB1 would still grab at least 40-45% of the US console market share.

If we assume an 85 million core-gamer base, that's 35 million, which is no small amount. And they'll sell 'decently' too in other countries, sufficient to bolster its install base further.

As much as the doom and gloom of the XB1 is paraded daily, for them to move 40-50 million units of XB1 shouldn't be difficult, and with that kind of install base, 3rd-party devs will still develop for both consoles, as both consoles will have an install base too large to be ignored.

I'd normally agree with you, but I'm hearing whispers that PS4 preorders are outselling Xbone ones by 4:1 in North America! If that kind of numbers hold true to sales for the first 6 months, then the Xbone will be in a position that's impossible to recover from. It won't be the first time that a brand has bombed - the Wii sold 60+ million units in North America, but the wii U is still under 1.5 million sold. The Xbone may still be able to pull in a casual audience (TV viewers, gadget fans), but that even that won't happen until it's at $299 or less.

If Microsoft wants those 40-50 million sales, they're going to have to fight for them, and rightfully so!

Originally Posted by Jazzrat

As for the blame, I think it's a bit of yes and no, Mattrick is the head of entertainment and it's his responsibility but corporate politics can often twist events beyond his control and who knows what's been going in within Microsoft itself.

It was and it wasn't. I think that positioning the Xbone the way it was is too big a call for Mattrick to make. The media features of the Xbone would cost Microsoft somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.5 billion to implement, as well as integration with the Windows division and so forth. The call would have to have come from Ballmer and the board of directors.

Where Mattrick misstepped was in misreading the sentiment around the Xbone. Microsoft really did think that gamers would come on board despite all the rumblings before E3. I don't think that Mattrick had enough authority to make the sweeping changes to enable the policy reversal though.

Originally Posted by Jazzrat

I think that remains to be seen. It's not unheard of for products to snowball out of control in sales and stifle the competitors and we have seen that before during the NES and PS2 era. The mass consumer will generally go for the trending item and they present the bigger proportion slice of the gaming market.

This is precisely why selling to early adopters and getting good press at launch is so important. Any impressions given off are likely to stick, and it takes a long time to win back lost customers.

[Veviticus]

The biggest problem with the Wii U right now is the lack of first party games that most people go for such as zelda, mario kart and super smash bros. I for one am waiting for those to come out before picking up the console.
I think even if the Xbox One didn't do so well in the beginning, if it releases amazing exclusives and continues to do so, it could rival Sony Playstation again.

[4Tran]

Originally Posted by Veviticus

The biggest problem with the Wii U right now is the lack of first party games that most people go for such as zelda, mario kart and super smash bros. I for one am waiting for those to come out before picking up the console.

The biggest problem with the Wii U is that it's the wrong product at the wrong time. Even if all the games that you list come out and are well received, the console is still restricted largely to Nintendo fans. This does nothing to address the Wii U's problems with third parties and with a narrow audience.

Originally Posted by Veviticus

I think even if the Xbox One didn't do so well in the beginning, if it releases amazing exclusives and continues to do so, it could rival Sony Playstation again.

When do you expect this to happen? Microsoft has already revealed most of their 2013-2014 exclusives; they may have a couple more to show, but it won't be very many. Outside of this, most of their studios would have releases in either 2014 or late 2013. If the average development time on a Xbone game is 2 years, there won't be very many exclusives in 2015 either. If the Xbone struggles all the way to this period, how can they recover? While buying up third party exclusives is viable right now, publishers wouldn't go for it if PS4 sales shoot above Xbone's.

[Slayerx]

Originally Posted by 4Tran

The biggest problem with the Wii U is that it's the wrong product at the wrong time. Even if all the games that you list come out and are well received, the console is still restricted largely to Nintendo fans. This does nothing to address the Wii U's problems with third parties and with a narrow audience.

Not sure if that's really something that drags the wii U down that much... i mean the the Wii was a huge seller and biggest drivers were first party games. Nintendo's games are serious system sellers. Really there are millions of gamers that will buy a nintendo consoles just for their first party games

Sure, their lack of third party support will handicap them and make it more difficult to come out on top, but their first party games alone can move tens of millions of consoles. And really, that's the major reason the Wii U has been suffering... it launched with none of their heavy hitters, and even this coming holiday season, a full year after release, their heavy hitting first party games STILL won't be ready. Its only when the likes of smash bro's, mario kart, and new 3D mario game, a new installment in the zelda series and so forth come out will the wii U start making a come back... it would also seriously help them if they get a price drop since one of the things that helpped wii sales was its low price point.

When do you expect this to happen? Microsoft has already revealed most of their 2013-2014 exclusives; they may have a couple more to show, but it won't be very many. Outside of this, most of their studios would have releases in either 2014 or late 2013. If the average development time on a Xbone game is 2 years, there won't be very many exclusives in 2015 either. If the Xbone struggles all the way to this period, how can they recover? While buying up third party exclusives is viable right now, publishers wouldn't go for it if PS4 sales shoot above Xbone's.

There is really no way to tell what will come out in late 2014 and 2015. There are probably plenty of games that are being made right now (or have been in development for months) that have not been announced because the publishers feel its too soon or not enough content has been completed; its common practice for studios to be tight lipped about the games they are working on and won't announce them long after development has started; Heck most of the games that were announced this year that we never heard of before E3 were probably in the works for the past year or 2. Most likely, many of the games set to come out in 2014 have not been announced and those coming out in 2015 won't be announced until next year's E3

[Reality_Breaker]

Originally Posted by Chaos2Frozen

Fortunately or Unfortunately, the Xbox fanbase are still strong in North America so they wouldn't fail that badly.

Well sure, the Skyne... Xbone is the primary console for FPS games, and we know how X-box fans love their CoDs and Halos.

[4Tran]

Originally Posted by Slayerx

Not sure if that's really something that drags the wii U down that much... i mean the the Wii was a huge seller and biggest drivers were first party games. Nintendo's games are serious system sellers. Really there are millions of gamers that will buy a nintendo consoles just for their first party games

The Gamecube sold about 24 million units worldwide, and it featured good price and performance compared to its rivals. The Wii U has neither of the latter two, so 24 million can be seen as a ceiling. Right now, it's trending below the Gamecube and it has no sales momentum whatsoever. I'm talking about ~25000 sales in Japan, 35000 sales in North America, and probably <20000 sales in Europe per month. On top of that, there's about 1,000,000 unsold units world wide and retailers have been very reluctant to stock or promote the consoles.

Originally Posted by Slayerx

Sure, their lack of third party support will handicap them and make it more difficult to come out on top, but their first party games alone can move tens of millions of consoles. And really, that's the major reason the Wii U has been suffering... it launched with none of their heavy hitters, and even this coming holiday season, a full year after release, their heavy hitting first party games STILL won't be ready. Its only when the likes of smash bro's, mario kart, and new 3D mario game, a new installment in the zelda series and so forth come out will the wii U start making a come back... it would also seriously help them if they get a price drop since one of the things that helpped wii sales was its low price point.

The thing that helped the Wii was that it caught on fire because of Wii Sports and the Wiimote. That ship has sailed and it's no longer a good indicator of what the Wii U can accomplish.

Before the heavy hitters arrive, the main audience of the Wii U are Nintendo fans. After they arrive, the main audience is still Nintendo fans. There will be little difference in the people who were interested in the platform before as opposed to after. They just more likely to pick up a Wii U (although chances are that they've already picked one up). Moreover, any impulse to buy a Wii U are going to have to be balanced with the interest of putting that $300-350 towards a PS4 or Xbone instead. I can see a doubling in sales YOY for the Wii U for January - June 2014, but that still leaves them with terrible sales. A $250 price point might be enough to put the Wii U on life support, but Nintendo will be bleeding money all over the place.

Originally Posted by Slayerx

There is really no way to tell what will come out in late 2014 and 2015. There are probably plenty of games that are being made right now (or have been in development for months) that have not been announced because the publishers feel its too soon or not enough content has been completed; its common practice for studios to be tight lipped about the games they are working on and won't announce them long after development has started; Heck most of the games that were announced this year that we never heard of before E3 were probably in the works for the past year or 2. Most likely, many of the games set to come out in 2014 have not been announced and those coming out in 2015 won't be announced until next year's E3

Going with the assumption that 3rd party exclusives are going to be rare in the next few years, we can limit this thought experiment to first party titles. Going by the claim of 15 exclusives published by Microsoft Game Studios within a year of launch, we already have a very clear picture of what that output is going to entail. The games shown at E3 account for 12 titles, so that leaves only three others; probably Fable, Crackdown, Gears of War, Allen Wake or a Kinect title or two.

With a 24-month development period, Microsoft will only have enough studios to make 6-8 games for 2015. The only real mystery is what they're going to be.

Originally Posted by Reality_Breaker

Well sure, the Skyne... Xbone is the primary console for FPS games, and we know how X-box fans love their CoDs and Halos.

Unfortunately for Microsoft, these gamers are less likely to be early adopters, so their sales will only show up in 2015 on.

[ArrowSmith]

The Kinect v2 is the killer feature that will cause XB1 to win out in the end outside of Japan.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by ArrowSmith

The Kinect v2 is the killer feature that will cause XB1 to win out in the end outside of Japan.

If it was truly a feature, it would be optional. MS would have bundled the Kinect with a killer app Kinect game, and make billions. Until then, no dice.

[Duo Maxwell]

Originally Posted by ArrowSmith

The Kinect v2 is the killer feature that will cause XB1 to win out in the end outside of Japan.

Yeah, that feature is the one people wish it didn't exist the most.

Originally Posted by Slayerx

There is really no way to tell what will come out in late 2014 and 2015. There are probably plenty of games that are being made right now (or have been in development for months) that have not been announced because the publishers feel its too soon or not enough content has been completed; its common practice for studios to be tight lipped about the games they are working on and won't announce them long after development has started; Heck most of the games that were announced this year that we never heard of before E3 were probably in the works for the past year or 2. Most likely, many of the games set to come out in 2014 have not been announced and those coming out in 2015 won't be announced until next year's E3

I think if it's multi platform title, then it would be make sense. Usually they don't hide exclusive title, since that's what helps moving the sale of the console. Why would they hide them to lower the amount of sale they could have in the future?

Heck, I'm still bitter about FFXIII versus, you know.

[Chaos2Frozen]

Originally Posted by Duo Maxwell

Yeah, that feature is the one people wish it didn't exist the most.

Lets not forget that Xbox is only coming to 21 countries in this first year...

Heck, I'm still bitter about FFXIII versus, you know.

Yeah, had F15, KH3 and MGSV stayed playstation exclusives, Sony would have definitely crushed Xbox in games...

[Jazzrat]

Originally Posted by Duo Maxwell

Yeah, that feature is the one people wish it didn't exist the most.

It's really not that people don't want Kinect but Microsoft hasn't done enough to justify the cost of it so far in both games and media app. Plus with the recent PRISM exposure, it has become a tainted feature with their silly policy of having it on all the time.

Originally Posted by 4Tran

If the Xbone struggles all the way to this period, how can they recover? While buying up third party exclusives is viable right now, publishers wouldn't go for it if PS4 sales shoot above Xbone's.

Recovery is still possible if XB1 doesn't get totally crushed by PS4 in market dominance. As long as it have enough market share especially in the NA region, major 3rd parties will continue to go multiplatform to support it especially since both system are using the same architecture this time around.

How far it can regain market share is going to be up to what Sony and Microsoft does post launch.

Originally Posted by Chaos2Frozen

Yeah, had F15, KH3 and MGSV stayed playstation exclusives, Sony would have definitely crushed Xbox in games...

I think TitanFall would have been a better exclusive for Sony to secure. JRPG have always been within Sony's strong point while multiplayer FPS is something Xbox is well known for. Eventhough it's going to be available for PC and the 360 as well, I wouldn't be surprised if people bought a XB1 just for Titanfall.