Economic Crisis of 2008/2009

[Reckoner]

I think these two political cartoons summarize my feelings on this Detroit bailout.

[no common sense]

The economic storm will kill the weak, stupid, unprepared, and boomers approaching retirement. Assuming the governments survive the scavengers will have a feast when they get out of their holes after the storm passes, except the ones who come out during the eye of the storm (sucker rallies). If you were smart enough to learn marketable high demand skills and are not retiring soon then the storm should be fun, assuming the government doesn't do anything too stupid. I shall resume fiddling as Rome burns. I was initially disappointed that we seem to be taking the path towards a long recession like Japan's lost decade rather than a swift crushing spanking, but the silver lining that will give me more time to build up capital (even if hyper inflation happens again) so I will be able to buy more at super bargain prices. I only have sympathy for the guys who lived within their means and are approaching retirement but lost much of the value in their 401k, I hope the rest burn in the economic storm that has only begun.

[Cluelessly]

Originally Posted by no common sense

The economic storm will kill the weak, stupid, unprepared, and boomers approaching retirement. Assuming the governments survive the scavengers will have a feast when they get out of their holes after the storm passes, except the ones who come out during the eye of the storm (sucker rallies). If you were smart enough to learn marketable high demand skills and are not retiring soon then the storm should be fun, assuming the government doesn't do anything too stupid. I shall resume fiddling as Rome burns. I was initially disappointed that we seem to be taking the path towards a long recession like Japan's lost decade rather than a swift crushing spanking, but the silver lining that will give me more time to build up capital (even if hyper inflation happens again) so I will be able to buy more at super bargain prices. I only have sympathy for the guys who lived within their means and are approaching retirement but lost much of the value in their 401k, I hope the rest burn in the economic storm that has only begun.

Chance of hyperinflation, despite all of the talk, is minimal. Besides all the trade that relies on the USD, it doesn't own the type of debt in FX that would lead down that path. No matter how it looks, the Fed has all the cards as long as there is no global revolution. Bernanke has the power to throw basically anybody under the bus. If they wish to bomb the USD it will really be game over.

[4Tran]

Originally Posted by Cluelessly

Thank you for the explanation. What's been bugging me a lot recently is that the guys protesting in D.C. seem to be saying we should become more socialist in an attempt to stabilize the economy which won't work in practice.

Those "guys" are completely right. The CEOs of the financials have shown that they don't give a damn about doing anything to alleviate the crisis. Capitalism has completely failed as a solution for the problem, so it's up to the government to beat them with a big stick until they behave to the advantage of everyone else. This kind of beating is the very essence of socialism, and it's really the only alternative short of capitulating and simply letting things fall apart.

Originally Posted by Cluelessly

Liquidity -> confidence -> debt. If you want to really get into it.

Nope; both you and the economic wonks in charge have this sequence wrong. Injecting liquidity will help in some areas, but it's not going to be of any use for the most pressing issue of lack of confidence in the financials. That's going to require transparency to fix.

Originally Posted by Cluelessly

The problem with what they are proposing is that no matter what it seems to be they aren't addressing overspending and the deficit. Obama just said it didn't matter how far he drove up our debt in the coming years since he is on a mission to save the economy. Once the bond market dislocates they will be forced to quit deficit spending as long as we continue to use the current system.

I think that you're conflating the perils of a long term problem like debt with the much more pressing crisis at hand. An analogy is of a dam that's just sprung a leak. Right now, we can stick our hand into the leak - getting that hand out again is going to be a big problem, but it can be addressed after the leak is sealed. It's sort of pointless to worry about getting stuck after the dam has already collapsed.

Originally Posted by Cluelessly

Putting some qualifications on the bailout, I would be willing to go through with it if everybody made concessions and took major job cuts besides opening up the books. They would also have to either make their current business viable, or go into a whole new business.

Right now, putting more people on the unemployment rolls is precisely the thing not to do. It's not as if there are lots of people going there anyways. Looking at what worked in other financial crises of the last couple of decades, it's usually been government injections of funds that directly stimulated consumer spending that have done the trick. There's no apparent reason why a similar approach is necessarily the wrong course of action.

I see you constantly harping on the evils of a large debt, but I don't see any numbers backing that up. The only place where it really makes a difference is that it makes people less likely to lend to the government. So far, the U.S. still has an AAA rating, and it doesn't look like that's going to change any time soon. Admittedly, this might change, but right now, people are buying T-Bills like crazy and there are no signs that it's an issue.

Originally Posted by Cluelessly

As it stands they are dead no matter what, these problems did not start because of the current lag in the economy. We are in so much debt in the first place that a little more to turn them around wouldn't be a problem, but the chances of this happening in practice are almost nil so my thoughts are that we should just let them fall instead of throwing money into the black hole until they default at a later time causing a bigger boom.

Do you really think that it's impossible to stave off a depression?

Originally Posted by Cluelessly

All this goes into what I mentioned earlier about debt. Spending more now will solve nothing and only make the impending collapse more severe. It's pessimistic, but nothing up to this point was unpreventable, and they haven't done a damn thing right so far. Especially Obama saying deficits don't matter. Unless there is a global conspiracy to overthrow the current financial order this is insanity.

Obama's right. Think of it this way, what option is there compared to deficit spending? There's only a balanced budget, and the last president to attempt that feat in the middle of a recession was Hoover, and look where that got him. Heck, for that matter, one of the few G7 countries (the only G7 country?) with a balanced budget before this mess was Canada, and even they're not going to try for a balanced budget this year (and probably 2009 for that matter).

Sure spending has to be controlled eventually, but there's a proper time and place for that. Doing so when it's so damned inopportune is where the real insanity lies.

Originally Posted by Cluelessly

And one last thing about bailouts...it's like taking the long way around to fight the deflationary death spiral. Unless they want to print say, 30 trillion right here and now, with no velocity to speak of we'll get nowhere. And the chances of it succeeding is slim to nil. So I don't see how bailing out failing companies would solve the biggest problem. And just straight printing up the money will end catastrophically anyway so...uhm...yeah.

The idea behind a lot of the potential bailing isn't to actually fix anything. It's to keep companies afloat so that their collapse doesn't drag everyone else down until conditions improve enough that they can sustain themselves. The most important keys to this improvement is to unfreeze the credit market and to open up everyone's books. Somewhere in there, there has to be a reversal of the American trend of shipping jobs overseas - this kind of activity can help a company's bottom line in the short term, but it's economic suicide in the long run.

[Cluelessly]

Originally Posted by 4Tran

Those "guys" are completely right. The CEOs of the financials have shown that they don't give a damn about doing anything to alleviate the crisis. Capitalism has completely failed as a solution for the problem, so it's up to the government to beat them with a big stick until they behave to the advantage of everyone else. This kind of beating is the very essence of socialism, and it's really the only alternative short of capitulating and simply letting things fall apart.

It is that the government cannot handle the deficits bought on by more social programs, note examples such as Illinois' 4 bil deficit, 1.5 bil of which comes from medical bills.

Originally Posted by 4Tran

Nope; both you and the economic wonks in charge have this sequence wrong. Injecting liquidity will help in some areas, but it's not going to be of any use for the most pressing issue of lack of confidence in the financials. That's going to require transparency to fix.

No, I am saying debt is the biggest and somewhat independent. Liquidity is a problem stemming from confidence.

I will address the rest in one go. This will explain why we cannot continue the spending. As of a month ago global equities were down about 30tril altogether. The amount of total notional destruction is probably much more at 50tril+ by now. Now that is not the net, it is impossible to calculate the net, but it is obvious we are in a deflationary spiral and so the net must be positive too.

If a deflation continues, the US will be forced to selective default or all out default depending on how international investors view the situation and the amount of fear - which will be the basis by which assets are dumped. As we are deflating, it is currently impossible for the government to finance the interest payments on our national debt. If Bernanke does not indeed have an ulterior motive, that is why pulling out of the deflationary spin is so important. We are at the point at which there is no way to not default unless you want to cut all entitlements completely and have major reductions across the board on all government spending. If the U.S. defaults on its debts, what will happen globally will put GD 1.0 to shame. At the same time, in a deflationary default, private debts are not erased. Real private debt increases in a deflation. The more the government spends, the more interest there is to finance. There is no way out of this. Our currency is based on interest drawn on debt. The monetary base must expand, but as it is we are not expanding. By the end of next year it will be either print or die. The more Obama spends the faster this will approach and the bigger the fall. I will give you that the companies have a very small chance of surviving, but it will mean nothing if the deflation is not stopped. We are so deep in the hole right now that using bailouts to return any form of velocity is suicidal.

We got to the above position because of overspending in the past in both private and public sector. It will be addressed now. They cannot duct tape Frankenstein together for much longer.

No, it is completely impossible to stave off this depression as things are. The shoes have yet to all drop. Despite exploding house inventories, housing prices are still not crashing sufficiently in some areas. Government spending in individual states will also be cut shortly if they are not bailed out, and if they are bailed out it will only contribute more to the problem. All other sectors will continue to contract no matter who is bailed out. Airlines being a prime example. There are insolvent hospitals shutting down at record numbers, restaurants failing, etc. Saving the auto industry will do nothing but put a failing company on government support for what will most likely be a net loss permanently. We already went past the lip of the abyss on this one.

EDIT: Well I guess I should just say, if you think job losses are bad, wait till we're out of lala land and we hit the sharp end of asset deflation. The storm isn't nearly over, and much of the rest of the world is still behind in lag time. Many nations also actually face worse crisis than us, such as the oil states who are primary dependent on oil (ME, Russia - Russia did not tell OPEC to bugger off because it didn't want to cut oil output. It can't cut oil output.) or a mix of oil and real estate (UAE), Dependence on the belief of growth that drives growth (China, it also has some pretty heavy overcapacity issues too), unwinding carry trade killing an export economy (Japan), and global financial sectors of horrifying sizes (EU). Then there's the trouble in other emerging markets, etc. Throwing money at the storm won't do anything unless it's in the range of tens of trillions either, so I fail to see the point at throwing pennies in exchange for minimal or no results when it would contribute quite a bit to the deficit.

But it is true that Bernanke holds all of the strings, globally. If he does as some fear this credit crisis will immediately be solved, but there is no guarantee that the global depression will be stopped as the resulting actions will effectively kill all of the nations not on Bernanke's good book that have basically become over-leveraged dollar ETFs. However what is behind this theory is beyond the scope of this thread and is somewhat of a conspiracy so I will digress.

[no common sense]

Quite frankly I think this storm is the best thing that could have happened for my age cohort. If not for the housing crisis the stock market bubble would have burst over a slower period of time a few years from now and left the system set up for an even bigger fall when social security and medicare hit the fan in what would have been around the year 2025. I would have ended up being sacked with huge taxes during my peak earning years. Now it looks like this thing will be big enough to force the entire system to reform and unf*** itself. The current and past generations borrowed too much against the future and the market must correct for this. I just though it would be my generation paying back around the 2025 mark, looks like the boomers borrowed just a bit too much and now they are going to pay for it.
The system will be reformed, regulation and moving money around will be futile efforts at best. Obama really has an opportunity here, if he can resist the urge to allow the corporate income tax rate to rise (if you really want to stick it to the corporations don't complain when jobs start moving overseas as corporations leave the country like rats from a sinking ship) while cutting back spending and instead focus his efforts on reforming the corporate system he would earn a high place among presidents(even though many would initially hate him for it). The corporate system needs to have 100% transparency for all stockholders, a significant percentage of the board of directors needs to have served (or be committed to serve) the company for at least 20 years, and CEO payment needs to be retooled to promote a long term 5-20 year outlook rather than the present day quarterly outlook. The public will need to be reeducated to focus on company dividends rather than stock prices. Social security and medicare will have to be addressed once a high enough pain threshold is reached and the easiest time to do it for a politician will be while everything else is on the table being reformed.
Its the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine.

[panzerfan]

Unfortunately, I do not think that this issue would be really fun at all given how much personal debt is accumulated. Alot of people will go down in flames, and this is going to be the mother of all busts counting since the great depression.

The second wave, being the cry for help by the industrial giants, will end with more companies that are are 'too big to fail' letting their subcontractors be martyred while taypayer money pour in to their partly self-inflected wounds.

The third phase, where credit card loansharks tightening restrictions and bracing for a torrent of defaults have already been put underway in the meantime. That moment will mark the point where this crisis becomes a matter for everyone else yet affected. Citigroup is already downsizing as banks brace for the droppings coming straight for the fans.

For the love of one's sanity, please don't accumulate debt right now. It's already too late to climb out of existing debt as it is. Fortunately, banks shouldn't totally collapse and wiping what meager savings that are in the everyday citizens' coffer. However, de-evaluation and total loss of trust in the USD is a whole other story...

[Cluelessly]

Sigh...I didn't mean to be so negative. Unlike other collapses, everybody is in this together so the world shouldn't end. The result depends entirely upon where we stand in relation to the global economy. We will fall somewhere between either defaulting due deflation (least likely) or inflating away the debt when the Fed makes its move (most likely). But the problem is that if they choose to inflate away the debt and correct what is happening in the US, then the bag will only shift towards other nations. This is the most likely scenario. Of course either deflation or inflation will have global consequences, it is only the severity internally that is a question. Tons of moral hazard goes along with it.

A deflationary default by the US by the US would actually hurt the world more than it would hurt the US. Whether or not it will hurt the world more than what would happen in the controlled inflation is still not clear. This is really quickly becoming the moment of truth where everybody who has been riding the USD up is forced to repay all of the good karma. Inflating away our debt under normal conditions would obviously result in inflation, though not on the scale of Zimbabwe. However the USD is special in it's status. Looking at everything that has happened up to this point, it seems much more likely that what they will do is simply force several other nations to take the brunt of the eventual fall. The resulting strength of the inflationary forces in the US will then be only in relation to the inflationary forces in these other countries that will face an all out collapse. In this case, the inflation of the USD will be mild as opposed to 50% overnight. This would be the miraculous solution for the US internally.

And then the problem will be covered up and we will go back to our regularly scheduled abuse of credit without anyone having learned a lesson I suppose. Perhaps the Fed will also get a new world order out of it, since it's becoming painfully clear just who holds the nukes when it comes to financial warfare. Either way, when the problem is solved, those car companies will also go back to their regularly scheduled collapse, this time without a credit problem to blame.

GM: http://www.gm.com/corporate/investor...3_2008_10Q.pdf

If we gave GM all of that 50bil right now they would still be in the hole. Notice also how much of the loss was gained in 2007 before this problem arose. Way to go GM. With the amount of money they want to spend "rescuing" these three, they could buy all three outright many times over. When a company up and BKs the company doesn't disappear, the government would get a much deal giving them a credit line after they BK so they can restructure. Giving them the money without forcing chapter 11 just leaves everything open to more abuse and will most likely result in them becoming a permanent bleed in the system like freddie & fannie. Within the bounds of the current system bailouts are the equivalent of attempting to escape quicksand by digging.

But anyway, whatever results will not be the same sort of devaluation as what we have seen previously in history unless the Fed just outright prints $100k for everybody or something of that sort. So many have been drawn into the pull of the Fed that I am no longer sure if they could lose trust in the USD globally even if they wanted to.

Sorry if I killed this thread.

[panzerfan]

I don't think you killed it, but this issue isn't something so tangible due to how economy really is like now.

I found this youtube video on how money is fundamentally backed by debt on top of debt and leveraged against debts btw.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVkFb26u9g8

[Xellos-_^]

is one of the requirements for the job of ceo of the det3 a iq lower then bush?

Instead, the chief executives of the Big Three automakers opted to fly their company jets to the capital for their hearings this week before the Senate and House -- an ill-timed display of corporate excess for a trio of executives begging for an additional $25 billion from the public trough this we

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...l?hpid=topnews

can the ceos of the det3 be any more stupid then this?

[ZephyrLeanne]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

is one of the requirements for the job of ceo of the det3 a iq lower then bush?

Like this?


Or this?

can the ceos of the det3 be any more stupid then this?

They actually could - watch how the US people fell into the trap of the Japanese carmakers by following them to Thailand to make their cars. Japan can definitely sell even with Thailand-made cars - they still can provide 5 years warranty (in Toyota's case, at least) which proves that their cars are still quality products. Meanwhile, US cars were known to be rather crap in handling (in East Asia at least) and fuel-thirsty. Then they downgraded warranty after moving to Thailand.

This is nothing compared to their insistence to make 4x4s until the last minute. Japanese and Koreans (And even Malaysia) knew that small consumption = big sales. (Watch the puny Kelisas take over the North-South Expressway in Malaysia)

Dumb, huh? All for the image of the US muscle car.

EDIT And big news now:

Auto Industry Bailout Vote Canceled By Senate

[LynnieS]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

can the ceos of the det3 be any more stupid then this?

I would imagine that it depends on if they have to fly on private jets or not. For insurance and protection purposes, an employment contract might well have a clause in which they have to fly on the company plane. Then other guys, I would imagine, start thinking, "Hey, so-and-so has this private jet at his disposal, and I run a company as big and important (in his mind if nothing else) as his, so I should get the same."

The jury is still out, IMHO, on whether there is anyone outside of world leaders who actually need the perk - let alone the CEOs of car makers - but how many people would actually turn down the perk if it's offered?

[ashesatdusk]

I see you constantly harping on the evils of a large debt, but I don't see any numbers backing that up. The only place where it really makes a difference is that it makes people less likely to lend to the government. So far, the U.S. still has an AAA rating, and it doesn't look like that's going to change any time soon. Admittedly, this might change, but right now, people are buying T-Bills like crazy and there are no signs that it's an issue.

The fundamental problem with the U.S debt opposed to other countries. Is the U.S dollar is the worlds reserve currency. Instead of being on a gold standard most countries are on an U.S dollar standard. The U.S pays debt in its own currency. This creates the issue that the U.S can actually print money to pay back its debt. However doing this would create inflation, and devalue dollar. Because dollar is simply printed, there is a point where countries can say the dollar is not a hard currency (essentially not a good store of value) if that were happen in order to issue debt we'd have to raise interest rates, which could be disastrous especially in a weak U.S economy, as this is contractionary monetary policy. What I'm getting at is its possible for the U.S to rate its A.A.A rating in an instance. I'm skeptical about rating agencies in general. This Financial Crisis would not have happened on this magniturde if the Rating Agencies did their job properly. That much is a fact that almost anyone who knows finance or economics agrees with.




There is a potential for a sudden solvency crisis, that could happen in an instant. Its unlikely because to a certain degree our debt has been concentrated into the hands of an economic area that stands the most to loose if the U.S dollar collapsed (East Asia). I am skeptical about this happening but the possibilty exists and there are legitimate academics worried about this.

On the other hand as a ratio of G.D.P the U.S debt was higher after world war II and we paid that whole debt off. Also the debt in portion to G.D.P and Debt per capita is not unusually large. The problem aint the amount of debt its the rate of putting debt

Looking at everything that has happened up to this point, it seems much more likely that what they will do is simply force several other nations to take the brunt of the eventual fall. The resulting strength of the inflationary forces in the US will then be only in relation to the inflationary forces in these other countries that will face an all out collapse. In this case, the inflation of the USD will be mild as opposed to 50% overnight

Most likely east asia. They are the ones holding the debt to begin with.

[ZephyrLeanne]

Originally Posted by ashesatdusk

On the other hand as a ratio of G.D.P the U.S debt was higher after world war II and we paid that whole debt off. Also the debt in portion to G.D.P and Debt per capita is not unusually large. The problem aint the amount of debt its the rate of putting debt


Most likely east asia. They are the ones holding the debt to begin with.

Um. "They are the ones holding the debt to begin with."? Explain that if China is the world's largest saver. East Asian economies did buy a hell lotta T-Bills. That's why this whole system will topple soon enough. We buy T-Bills to help US and the US falls like that. Damn Bush, really. And his Halliburton/Texas Oil/Detroil Friends that cause high oil consumption by building ridiculously huge cars.

In the 1970's, a certain Briton warned the Americans...

Guess they need to learn the hard way.

[panzerfan]

The world's situation is really dire given how that the extent of leveraging from high-powered money (which really are the T-bonds ultimately) have gone so far that the mortgages in the hands of the customers are compounded to ridiculous numbers of more than 300x the actual amount of US governmental debts used to create that line 'network' of credit.

In effect, we're all just using bonds and debt IOUs' of the USA in our daily business transactions. Heck, ever since Nixon, you can't even demand the US to hand over Gold at worst case to redeem anything.

I think what is even more disastrous is in how that the media does not take the time to explain the fundamental forces at play here. People know of Breton Woods, but no adequate explanation was given to the general public on how the conference created the financial world order today and why is that the these astronomical financial figures simply have no true legitimacy. With a woefully inadequate education on market fundamentals from K-12, all but the banking industry or corporate circle can't put the pieces together, thus making whatever that is to come very fatal for many of the hoi polloi.

[ZephyrLeanne]

Originally Posted by panzerfan

The world's situation is really dire given how that the extent of leveraging from high-powered money (which really are the T-bonds ultimately) have gone so far that the mortgages in the hands of the customers are compounded to ridiculous numbers of more than 300x the actual amount of US governmental debts used to create that line 'network' of credit.

In effect, we're all just using bonds and debt IOUs' of the USA in our daily business transactions. Heck, ever since Nixon, you can't even demand the US to hand over Gold at worst case to redeem anything.

Well, where are you from?
Because I was born in Canada, BUT spent my childhood in HK, started primary education in Singapore, and moved to Japan in High School 2nd grade.

I have to say this - this is the American way of doing things - get people into the same pit as you, then escape, leaving the rest to either find their way out, or die in there.

People know of Breton Woods, but no adequate explanation was given to the general public on how the conference created the financial world order today and why is that the these astronomical financial figures simply have no true legitimacy.

No, they don't mention him much in Singapore, Japan, or anywhere else I've been thus far.

[Vexx]

Yes, sometimes I think our country's real motto is "Sucks to Be You, I'm Out Of Here With My Swag".... (tired and cranky at the moment)

[ashesatdusk]

Um. "They are the ones holding the debt to begin with."? Explain that if China is the world's largest saver. East Asian economies did buy a hell lotta T-Bills. That's why this whole system will topple soon enough. We buy T-Bills to help US and the US falls like that. Damn Bush, really. And his Halliburton/Texas Oil/Detroil Friends that cause high oil consumption by building ridiculously huge cars.

In the 1970's, a certain Briton warned the Americans...

What do you want me to explain? China is holding U.S. debt. Right now they are the largest holder of American debt, next is japan. T-bills are short term debt. Their are other kind of bonds which are long term.

Debt. It aint to help the U.S out. China has to keep huge currency reserves to maintain their pegged undervalued exchange rates against U.S dollar. They store the money in U.S debt. They also take some of that savings and put into investment in to U.S. The U.S. is a FDI surpluser its how the economy continues growing despite a negative savings rate.

Its not so much to help the U.S out, East Asia stands the most to lose with a sudden decline of the U.S economy.

[ZephyrLeanne]

Originally Posted by ashesatdusk

What do you want me to explain? China is holding U.S. debt. Right now they are the largest holder of American debt, next is japan. T-bills are short term debt. Their are other kind of bonds which are long term.

Debt. It aint to help the U.S out. China has to keep huge currency reserves to maintain their pegged undervalued exchange rates against U.S dollar. They store the money in U.S debt. They also take some of that savings and put into investment in to U.S. The U.S. is a FDI surpluser its how the economy continues growing despite a negative savings rate.

Its not so much to help the U.S out, East Asia stands the most to lose with a sudden decline of the U.S economy.

And who caused it? Greedy Americans borrowing, in cases, up to 20x their monthly salary! Talk about easy money!

[panzerfan]

Originally Posted by shimathekat

No, they don't mention him much in Singapore, Japan, or anywhere else I've been thus far.

Well I am a Canadian in Canada... but anyways.

Bretton Woods conference is what I meant. This was the point where nations ruined financially by the 2nd World war negotiated the current economics order, basically pegs everyone to USD, with US guaranteeing that foreign nations can redeem USD in Gold, and of course IMF. Smithsonian Agreement came during Nixon's time in Vietnam war, when US was bankrupting its Gold reserves to take US off of gold forever, no longer pegging the exchange rate of US dollar and allow USD to 'float' against world currencies.

To be honest, this whole affair goes back further...

1913 marks the creation of the US Federal reserves, and that reserve was successful in wresting the money creation power from the US government essentially on the get-go and pump out 'money' in the form of debt. Following that, US stopped tying the currency to Gold standards, the only remaining check really of the Federal Reserved under the Franklin Delano Roosevelt Administration as that administration disparately debt financed its way into numerous spending projects, and of course WW2, the most costly war of them all. The story before 1913 is interesting too... but we're gonna have to go all the way to the formation of Bank of England, first central bank of the world and then some.

(dear god, I should be studying IT and Oracle instead of getting interested in Keynesian vs Austrian economics 101)