[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni - Ep. 4 Alliance of the golden witch

[Jan-Poo]

Technically Natsuhi is the head of the servants so she should have a strong relevance, however it's hard to guess what they would do in case of contradictory orders. The family rank would probably get priority, however it's not like Natsuhi can't get Krauss to support her for anything that involves the house management. Neither Kinzo or Krauss care of such trivial thing so you might assume that they are simply ordered to refer to Natsuhi for such things.

I think that part only shows Genji's humanity. It's not like not telling to Natsuhi is against his orders. He just decides it's all right for the cousins to have fun, same as when he told Kanon that it was all right for him to go play with them even if he was supposed to be on work duty.

However all of that could be fake.

[Marion]

Yeah I also remember in EP 1 he was also telling Kanon that it would be okay for him to hang out with the cousins before his shift began, but Kanon refused.

[Jan-Poo]

Of course if Kanon did otherwise then Battler would have seen both Shannon and Kanon at the same time.

[Marion]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Of course if Kanon did otherwise then Battler would have seen both Shannon and Kanon at the same time.

Oh boy, here comes the Shannon = Kanon theory

|D

True, I suppose, but then again that's Kanon's nature in a sense.

[Freelii]

So this whole Shannon = Kanon nonsense... what exactly is it's basis? That Battler has never seen Shannon and Kanon in the same place at the same time? I'm pretty sure he has, but could be I'm not remembering something properly.

[Marion]

Originally Posted by Freelii

So this whole Shannon = Kanon nonsense... what exactly is it's basis? That Battler has never seen Shannon and Kanon in the same place at the same time? I'm pretty sure he has, but could be I'm not remembering something properly.

It's not only Battler. Normally Shannon and Kanon are never seen together unless:

1) They're alone
2) They're with Genji
3) They're with Kinzo
4) A magical scene

You can say that the only exception to this is the prison when Kyrie, Krauss and Nanjo were with both of them, but the prison scenes overall are regarded as dubious. Plus they both have similar features and it's debated whether Kanon especially is already dead or not.

[Nih]

Putting aside the peculiar love triangle implied by this theory, one thing that's curious about it is how the first twilight from episode 3 could work assuming it's true. Not saying it's impossible.

[Freelii]

Originally Posted by Marion

It's not only Battler. Normally Shannon and Kanon are never seen together unless:

1) They're alone
2) They're with Genji
3) They're with Kinzo
4) A magical scene

You can say that the only exception to this is the prison when Kyrie, Krauss and Nanjo were with both of them, but the prison scenes overall are regarded as dubious. Plus they both have similar features and it's debated whether Kanon especially is already dead or not.

And all of a sudden, the theory makes weird amounts of sense o_O. It kind of explains why Kanon's corpse was missing during Battler's Episode 4 investigation.

But what about the 1st twilight of Episode 1? Wasn't Shannon's face half smashed so that she was identifiable, but Kanon was still running around?

[Jan-Poo]

The only one that sees Shannon face are Hideyoshi and Nanjo, anyway the theory doesn't deny the existence of both of them, rather one of them died before the start of the game and the other is playing both roles. so that corpse could have really been Shannon... or Kanon. This can also answer Nih's question, but considering the situation in ep4 we can't deny the possibilitiy that the adults are lying or that they are hallucinating.

Anyway imho the probability is only 70% I'm still not satisfied by the explanation of certain dubious things. Plus if the theory is popular I wouldn't put past Ryukishi the idea that he could change the story even if it was planned at start. Just to screw up with the fans.

But theory apart I don't think the fact that Shannon and Kanon are never seen both at the same time in front of Battler could be a mere coincidence (I can assure you I checked).
Some cases are quite evident imho. Like after 1st twilight Ep2, both Shannon and Kanon are in front of the chapel, but suddenly they split just a while before Battler arrives. Then Shannon vanishes and later says she has been busy because Kinzo told her to write some stuff (Even though Kinzo isn't alive!!!). But at that point Kanon was dead, or rather disappeared.
Ep1 Shannon dies at the 1st twilight
Ep3 they are both dead at the 1st twilight
Ep4 they both survive, but they are who knows where, so Battler can see them... until they are both dead... uh actually he only sees one corpse.

With the exception of Ep1 which is kinda dubious, Battler never sees Kanon's corpse.

There might be a different explanation for this however. One of them could be simply that Ryukishi is teasing us. But definitely not a coincidence

[Freelii]

For some reason it feels like a red herring to me.. could just be the most ridiculous series of coincidences ever

[Marion]

Jan, don't you mean 1st twilight for EP 3 XD

I don't think Ryukushi would change something just because the fans caught on to it. When planning the episodes he probably planned out solutions with each puzzle. Changing it now could cause a lot of alterations due to a chain reaction, and I don't think that would be favorable.

[momobunny]

Half of Shannon's face was still visible in EP1... so her identity was pretty much confirmed, and Kanon was still alive at the time. Is there a way to prove the Shannon = Kanon theory around that? (sorry if it was said before...)

[Jan-Poo]

Yeah right I corrected that XD Wouldn't be fun if they both died in the only twilight that doesn't require a sacrifice?

At Maho, no it wasn't seen by everyone, remember George wanted to see her but Hideyoshi told him he shouldn't do that. Hideyoshi had to go close to her to clearly see her face. Unless Battler also got close to her that could have been a body double. Plus there's also the theory that it was indeed Shanon's corpse (or Kanon's) but one of dead was dead from the start before the game.

EDIT:
Wait... It coudn't be a fake... the identity of the corpses is right that was confirmed in red. So the only thing that remains is that Shannon died a little before the start of the game, or it wasn't a corpse at all.

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by Freelii

And all of a sudden, the theory makes weird amounts of sense o_O. It kind of explains why Kanon's corpse was missing during Battler's Episode 4 investigation.

But what about the 1st twilight of Episode 1? Wasn't Shannon's face half smashed so that she was identifiable, but Kanon was still running around?

If you put together all of the absolutely confirmed deaths and alibis in Episode 1, I think the only female character who could have shot Natsuhi and posed as the witch at the end is Shannon. I've been kicking around an idea that the red text guaranteeing the identity of all unidentifiable corpses was meant to distract from the possibility that one or both of the identifiable corpses might be fake. If that's the case, then the same fake corpse could be used to explain the Episode 3 locked room.

Spoiler for Alibis for Episode 1 9th Twilight:

• George: with Battler
• Jessica: with Battler
• Maria: with Battler
• Krauss: face half-smashed at 1st twilight
• Natsuhi: shot by another person at 9th twilight
• Eva: killed by another person at 2nd twilight
• Hideyoshi: killed by another person at 2nd twilight
• Rudolf: Face smashed at 1st twilight, identity confirmed
• Kyrie: Face smashed at 1st twilight, identity confirmed
• Rosa: Face smashed at 1st twilight, identity confirmed
• Shannon: face half-smashed at 1st twilight
• Kanon: chest wound, bled to death after being found?
• Genji: face smashed at 6th twilight, identity confirmed
• Nanjo: face smashed at 7th twilight, identity confirmed
• Kumasawa: face smashed at 8th twilight, identity confirmed
• Gohda: face smashed at 1st twilight, identity confirmed

All survivors have alibis for Natsuhi's murder, but Shannon may not count as a survivor since everyone thinks she's dead. Technically Eva could also have faked her death somehow and died later to satisfy the red text, but that would mean she had stakes, which seems difficult to support relative to the other episodes.

I think the big problem with the Shannon = Kanon theory is actually Episode 2. According to red text, Kanon died in Jessica's room before Jessica's body was discovered, but Shannon was with the survivors until Rosa chased George and the servants off after the fake Kanon attack.

[Jan-Poo]

It is been speculated that Kanon died in that room before the game. The fact that Kanon's death is always the same could support the theory, since an event that's outside the loop cannot change.

However how could Kanon be the first to die in kyrie's group on Ep4? Someone is speculating some kind of group preexistent, but that sound far-fetched to me.

[Christen]

I think that's me. The existence of this group is far-fetched but not impossible. I refuse to explain what this group is for but you can't deny it's existence. The Devil's Proof is effective.

[Marion]

An idea just got in my head: what if there was never a meeting that Kinzo attended to begin with?

The idea is that Kinzo came down to the discussion between the parents and then six people died, two escaped and five were captured. But the entire thing is odd considering the following elements.

Spoiler for EP 4:

1) Kinzo's presence, considering his status.
2) Magical elements, such as the Siestas, Ronove, Gaap and Virgilia
3) The time it took to transport the 5 hostages to the Kuwadorian.

Considering these elements the entire scene can easily be considered a scene that Beatrice manipulated for the viewer.

[momobunny]

Also, Battler wasn't at that scene... so that may very well be true.

[FooBar]

That would point to Kyrie as being involved with the culprit, because she tells Battler about what she saw over the phone... While being shot at.

[momobunny]

Same with Jessica. Unless they were being threatened in some way or another... like, if they didn't tell Battler about it then ____ would happen...