[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[Kuroberus]

Maria

The Witch of Origins, who will live for one thousand years in the future. She holds the motherly magical power to give birth to one (1) from the Sea of Zero. At a glance, this magical power is frail, but no matter how many times you multiply zero (0), it doesn't become anything but zero. It is said that the one that she gives birth to could eventually surpass the heavens. She is loyally protected by Beatrice, who understands her true worth, and is in an alliance with Beatrice.

Does this mean she could be another Bernkastel? That meaning she could make the happy-ending fragments?

Bernkastel states that the happy endings are impossible.
Then there's Maria who can give give birth to possibility.
Does this mean that there would be a happy ending if Maria had been involved in some points in the games?

[AuraTwilight]

But how can you be sure that's how the sea of fragments work?
What if that universe allowed 17 fragments with Lion and infinite tragic Yasu fragments? 17+ infinite = infinite
How do you know it's growing and growing with every possibility?

Renall provided several quotes from the text that say that this is exactly the case; the Sea of Kakera is endless with infinite possibility, according to literally every description of it.

As I said, how can you be sure every imaginable story has an equivalent fragment?
What about an infinite set of tragic events? It's a smaller set of infinite compared to tragic+happy, but it's still infinite

Basic high school math. If you allow something to be possible even once in an infinite set, then that thing will be infinitely so.

As soon as you allow the die to roll a 6 even once, there are infinite sixes in an infinite number of die rolls.

Did she say it to them (Lion&co)? How can they be sure she's telling the truth?
What if it's a tragic universe and there are infinite tragic fragments only? Infinite =/= All

Again, read what Renall and I have already said; Bern DID say this to Lion and co; and again, mathematically, if you allow even ONE non-tragic fragment, then there's INFINITE non-tragic fragments.

With infinity being involved, there is only INFINITY or ZERO. There is no middle ground.

This Sea is Bern's workplace, a supernatural place. The inner works of it are not known.
Just someone imagining Lion persuading the family to be good guys results in a fragment with a happy ending? Does this fragment appear in the Sea for Bern to be able to find?

I want to know how to be sure of this jump: one imagines -> fragment appears

Because the novel said so. The Sea of Fragments hold infinite possibilities, meaning every conceivable course of events ipso facto has to happen there or it's definitively finite.

You didn't read Renall's posts at all, he literally quoted all of this for you already.

Literally, this kind of means that if someone wants to believe in fantasy, a fantasy fragment is possible, with witches running around and causing incidents. (which is pointless, imo)

But that's exactly the case! There are fragments where magic exists, except you have to tweak the parameters so that supernatural, occult things can occur, making it so far from the world of 'Prime' as to be irrelevant.

Similarly, a world where Lion exists instead of Yasu is roughly just as impossible by the sheer fact that it didn't happen.

There's no degree of real/plausible to unreal/unplausible, it's a binary switch. Either something is true, or it's not. There's no such thing as "kinda true."

Does this mean she could be another Bernkastel? That meaning she could make the happy-ending fragments?

Bernkastel states that the happy endings are impossible.
Then there's Maria who can give give birth to possibility.
Does this mean that there would be a happy ending if Maria had been involved in some points in the games?

It's an interesting thought! It's pretty interesting that Maria is the only witch that has no Meta-World presence. Almost as if it was a forced handicap...

[theacefrehley]

Originally Posted by AuraTwilight

Because the novel said so. The Sea of Fragments hold infinite possibilities, meaning every conceivable course of events ipso facto has to happen there or it's definitively finite.

But an infinite set doesn't necessarily include every single possibility
Example:
Natural numbers are an infinite set of numbers
Real numbers are an infinite set of numbers

Yet, Natural numbers don't have all possible numbers, and are still infinite
There are infinites that are greater than the others

[jjblue1]

I'll try to explain myself better. When I said Ange's family could not return I mean:
THAT Ange's family couldn't return.
Lamda said Bern could find a fragment in which another Ange's family would return but not one for the Ange in question.
So all those fragments in which Another Ange's family returned home... well, to Ange basically do not exist because... they don't regard her, she's not interested in receiving them as a present.

We know Lamda said with certain that Ange's family won't come back to her.
So in the infinite number of possibilities among what could have happened in the past Ange will have to discharge all the ones that will include her family coming back.

As Umineko implies that the concept of existence might be relative, in short if you don't acknowledge the existence of something 'it doesn't exist' even if it actually exist, those fragments are... well, erased/rejected in Ange's inner world even if there could be bilions of them.

It's like how she denied that Maria also had happy moments. To Ange they didn't exist but Maria's life probably wasn't miserable at each second...

So the trick is just to make a selection about fragments.
If I chose to pick up the set of odd numbers and present it to you even if it's infinite you can't find in it even numbers.

This doesn't mean even numbers don't exist just that they aren't there.
Bern didn't consider the whole set of fragments but a subset then successfully lead Lion to believe the ones in the subset where the only options available to him/her...

[Renall]

Originally Posted by theacefrehley

But an infinite set doesn't necessarily include every single possibility
Example:
Natural numbers are an infinite set of numbers
Real numbers are an infinite set of numbers

Yet, Natural numbers don't have all possible numbers, and are still infinite
There are infinites that are greater than the others

Set selection is what Beatrice is doing. The implication of the Sea of Fragments is that everything exists, but Beatrice has chosen to only describe in her catbox a particular set of possibilities.

One presumes Bern's ability to search is related to this; in fact, a part I didn't quote specifically describes Bern finding fragments which are linked to one another by a common property (the epitaph solution), which Battler sees visually represented as a huge constellation of Fragments linked by golden lines.

So my guess is that Bern searches by property selection, and slowly gathers together Fragments that match those parameters. For her to find only one Lion Fragment, and for that Fragment to be tragic, either:

• The Sea inexplicably contains absolutely no other Lion Fragments, despite the fact that nothing about its description suggests this would be the case; or
• The Sea contains plenty of Lion Fragments, but most don't meet Bern's search parameters whether intentionally or unconsciously, so she can only find one that's tragic; or
• The sea contains only as many Lion Fragments as have been imagined and interpreted; Bern interprets one to be tragic, but Will denies it. At the very least there should now be two, as they've imagined them. And even if they're not capable of doing so, somebody else could, a fact which Featherine acknowledges as essentially guaranteed to happen eventually.

Also, if Fragments are based on things which are imagined, then Yasu's dream of Lion ought to itself be a Fragment. Why the hell would Yasu imagine a tragedy happening in her own escapism? And even if she did, all it takes is someone like Will going "nuh-uh" and that should just about do it.

[DaBackpack]

I'm wondering if kakera are unique in the kakeraverse. Is it possible for two completely identical to coexist, or are they simply the same one? If each one is unique, then we could very easily have a set:

{x, an element of ALL kakera | if x = (Happy Lion) and y = (Happy Lion) then x = y}
So this set ONLY allows a single Happy Lion universe. Once we have one, then the others are not allowed.
This is an infinite set, but the parameters restrict more than one "Happy Lion" kakera. An infinite set does not guarantee that every possibility occurs infinitely many times. You could have this set whose only restriction is that only one Happy Lion world is allowed. Maybe that's an imposed rule of the Umineko Universe, or maybe just where Bernkastel was searching?

Yes, in general, if "all possibilities are allowed", then any event that occurs once occurs infinitely many times. But perhaps there is a physical restriction as above on the set Bernkastel is choosing from?

I would say that yes, this is stupid and arbitrary, but it is possible.

[Renall]

I don't see why we should appeal to arbitrary universal restrictions when we can just ascribe things to malice. Bern is evil and malicious and there is very little that checks her power. She can "find" what she wants to find and use half-truths as she wishes.

She could well have been half-truthful in the sense of "this is the only Lion fragment [that I bothered looking for / that fits my criteria for Lion + tragedy / that I felt like tracking down]," but that's as reliable as her promise to Ange.

[Wanderer]

The whole concept of "moving to a bigger catbox" is strange to begin with. The boundary of a catbox is determined by knowledge. To make a catbox bigger would require a reduction in knowledge.

I suppose it's a matter of what assumptions are being worked from. If you remove a previous assumption that you've been working from, you can increase the size of the catbox (in this case, the assumption that information suggesting the existence of Yasu instead of Lion is false- of course this seems absurd, as Lion would be well-known at school and so forth). However, I suppose that this is possible since we ourselves have no completely reliable information about anything in Umineko.

It truly is an epistemological nightmare.

-----------------------------------------

As for probability, an infinite number of die rolls does not mean an infinite number of each possible result. It just means that the probability of rolling that given number more than 0 times is infinitely close to 100%. That isn't exactly the same as 100%, though.

It's definitely an issue related to Bern's and Lambda's respective powers- how Lambda can make probabilities infinitely close to 100%, and Bern can find a solution no matter how close to 0% its probability is.

-----------------------------------------

As for universal restrictions; whether fantasy kakera, or kakera with prime-verifiable falsehoods such as Eva's death, are "legitimate" is really up to the observer, isn't it? In other words, it's the observer who ultimately determines the "universal restrictions" of the set of worlds they encounter. Bern I can often see as representing a part of an observer's internal process of deciding which restrictions are intellectually necessary to constitute "legitimate" kakera. Of course, since she's evil she will adjust the level of restriction for maximum possible cruelty.

Originally Posted by Renall

I don't see why we should appeal to arbitrary universal restrictions when we can just ascribe things to malice.

Well, it'd make her lying a lot less dumb if what she claimed wasn't logically impossible to begin with.

[haguruma]

Originally Posted by Renall

No one can give me a single good reason why tragedy must happen though. Because no one can, because that's ridiculous.

Though this quote is from a page back, it encompasses what I want to comment on.

I never wanted to say that the possibility of a happy end is impossible, it is, like you said, very likely that it exists somewhere if Kakera are really endless. The problem is not it's existence but that it's existence poses no significance to the people that ran into tragedy.

Within the When they Cry universe we are spectating witches and become tangled up in it the more we try to find that instance that pleases us perfectly, be it happiness or misery.
That, at least for me, is the tragedy behind the witches, which was even implied during Chiru of applying to Bernkastel. Witches have lost contact with the world, they traveled so many, seen so much variations of the same events, they have grown bored so many times but are incapable of allowing themselves to die. This makes them less and less human, because interacting with the human world frustrates them so easily. They want all perfect options at once, never to allow even one single flaw to it, and that makes them inhuman.

What significance does the existence of a happy Kakera, which to humans is nothing more than a fantasy, have for the people who had to endure tragedy? To know that it might have been better? That is basically Maria's magic of happiness. Coating over your own reality with a sweet lie of probability.
Does it make people happier to know that there might have been a way for them to have a happy end? Can the dead rest more peacefully if they are adorned with a story of glory?

It might be that what I draw from Umineko is completely different from what you see in it, but for me it deconstructed the positivity of this act of hanging unto fiction much more than it praised it.
Ange was well on her way of becoming a witch herself and was only able to move on once she let go of trying to find a chance to change the inevitable. Yes, a small miracle was granted to her, but even that came at a price. She had to admit to herself that the brother she knew was dead (though in a psychological sense), all that she achieved by letting her obsession go she had done before she ever got to know that though.

EDIT: And regarding Bern's statement, I would still say that she was bending the truth while not outright lying.
Let's actually assume that observing Kakera is actually necessary to know about their content, you don't just immediately have the knowledge of all Kakera when becoming a witch. And let's also assume that the chance of running into a happy Lion fragment is lower than running into a tragic fragment.
0＝Tragic
1＝Happy
So an event chain of a witch could look like this: 0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-0
There is a chance of there following a happy fragment, but after a while you start to despair and believe in probability more than hope. Bern is described as spiteful, filled with hatred for everyone happier than her...so she would give into a belief in a law of tragedy much more easily and actually want to make people believe it. And even if that happy end comes, it does not make her happy, because she exists on after that happy end has passed and has to experience further tragedies.

[AuraTwilight]

As for probability, an infinite number of die rolls does not mean an infinite number of each possible result. It just means that the probability of rolling that given number more than 0 times is infinitely close to 100%. That isn't exactly the same as 100%, though.

*Facepalm* Except yes, it does. Because if you're rolling the dice infinitely, there's never going to be a time when you're done rolling, meaning you'll keep getting atleast one result of each possibility, forever, without end. Some results might have LARGER infinities, but each result will occur an infinite number of times.

[Drifloon]

Is there really any difference between being 'infinitely close' to 100% and being 100%? >_>

[AuraTwilight]

Mathematically? Yes.

[Wanderer]

Originally Posted by Drifloon

Is there really any difference between being 'infinitely close' to 100% and being 100%? >_>

All the difference in the world, to a witch.

After a little research I found that I got my terminology a bit wrong. The probability is considered "100%", but the difference I was trying to point out is nevertheless recognized by mathematicians- it's not a "sure" chance, it's "almost sure".

[Uberzaki]

Thought I'd stir up the flames of conversation again, but I'll try to keep my post brief.

My personal belief is this could be seen as clue of some sort, especially if the Winchesters are never loaded:

What's the point on the wolf-and-sheep analogy that Rosa brings up? She has a freakin' gun to defend herself against any potential 'wolves'! Sure, a gun isn't perfect protection but it has a hell of presence.

[Golden Bug-Hunter]

Even someone with a gun can be taken down if you have the benefit of surprise to knife them in the back. If Rosa is looking the other way and she's surrounded by 'wolves', then the gun doesn't do much for her at all.

[AuraTwilight]

Exactly right. And what if the wolf has a concealed firearm like a pistol? She doesn't have the benefit of the Red to rule stuff like that out.

[Kiltias]

Originally Posted by Golden Bug-Hunter

Even someone with a gun can be taken down if you have the benefit of surprise to knife them in the back. If Rosa is looking the other way and she's surrounded by 'wolves', then the gun doesn't do much for her at all.

If anything the scene with "Zombie Kanon" had Genji portrayed as rather skilled with Knives.


On another note:
Quick question to EP 1 about Hideyoshi and Eva.
They were alive at 7 yet in the Manga the clock said 7:30 when the smell came in.(Kinzo)
Nanjo said Hideyoshi is dead for about an hour.
Of course Nanjo could have lied seeing him as the Accomplice.
Yet, Hideyoshi was in the tub with the shower being on and on hot.
Hot water speeds up Rigor Mortis and allows to help fake the time of death.

I just wonder, what's the point of doing so?
If Nanjo is an accomplice he could have just lied, yet with the hot water the only one tricked is Nanjo or what was the purpose?

[Renall]

They must have a heck of a hot water system for a shower to stay hot for any length of time. Mine goes cold in about half an hour.

My guess is Ryukishi didn't intend the water to have a specific effect on the state of the body (especially since Eva is dead the next room over and she wouldn't get the same treatment, so Nanjo would notice a discrepancy if he was supposed to). Easier to just say Nanjo lied.

[Uberzaki]

I guess I'll have to accept the not-invincible-argument, although since Rosa is an accomplice it seems to be an excuse to keep most of the characters in one place.

[Kiltias]

Originally Posted by Renall

They must have a heck of a hot water system for a shower to stay hot for any length of time. Mine goes cold in about half an hour.

My guess is Ryukishi didn't intend the water to have a specific effect on the state of the body (especially since Eva is dead the next room over and she wouldn't get the same treatment, so Nanjo would notice a discrepancy if he was supposed to). Easier to just say Nanjo lied.

Nah, Kanon brought the attention immediately to Hideyoshi when Nanjo entered along with Natsuhi and Genji.
Besides, the bath was right next to the door.
And Nanjo didn't even check for Evas time of death because he had checked Hideyoshis already and even if he wanted to George came right next and got onto Eva.