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Old 2010-03-10, 17:41   Link #6441
Jan-Poo
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If you go with the "Erika doesn't exist" theory you need to think that someone, a living person, is considered "Erika". Since there are many reds with Erika as a subject. Of course you might also think that "Erika" refers to different persons or things depending on context, but one of them must be a person in flesh and bones.
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Old 2010-03-10, 17:53   Link #6442
Judoh
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Erika = an animal of some sort then?

That's a flesh and blood body, and animals can deduce things,
Spoiler for ep6:


I would find it rather funny if Erika was really a dog or something that can't really count as a person. "wan! wan!"

Spoiler for ep 6:
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Old 2010-03-10, 18:47   Link #6443
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"Erika" could be applied to another person. However, exactly who she could be seems to be variable, because if you examine ep5 and ep6 with the view that Erika isn't real, I don't think one specific person can ever be her at all times. Then again, we can't be sure that was true of piece-Beatrice in 1-4.
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Old 2010-03-10, 19:22   Link #6444
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Is it at all possible that she's a different person in EP5 than she is in EP6? Or perhaps she was real in EP5 but not in EP6?

I like the second just for the pure Battler vengeance factor, although I don't think it works as well with the whole "I must realize the truth about myself" spheal.
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Old 2010-03-11, 02:21   Link #6445
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Well, you could argue that, but people like Jan-Poo will rightly criticize you for it. It's a very shaky theory and you'd have to explain why you think she's this or that and when. Then again, if Piece-Beato could represent different killers in ep1-4, I suppose the argument isn't too ludicrous, given that the Erika Doesn't Exist theory basically argues she's the same thing from a different angle.
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Old 2010-03-11, 03:15   Link #6446
Dlanor A. Knox
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I think Erika doesnt excist in Ep 6 game world.
In Ep.5 Bern-chan "granted" her a miracle, so she would survive the water and land in the game world.
The chance that that miracle will happen for the 2nd is terrible small, even smaller than the miracle to occure itself....
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Old 2010-03-11, 03:26   Link #6447
Dlanor A. Knox
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Lil offtopic:

Does anyone know what the name of Ep 7 will be?
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Old 2010-03-11, 04:15   Link #6448
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There was no detective in episode 6. Therefore, only the red truth can be trusted regarding the events of the day.

There was no red truth confirming Jessica stayed on the island. Jessica went with Kumasawa to do shopping and to meet the relatives in Niijima. So that is the clue that Jessica was only on the island in the morning of October 4th.

Spoiler:

When the boat came back everyone greeted each other except for Jessica! She did not come back on the boat! I'm not making this up.
Go back and read that part yourself. The next scene that showed Jessica was a scene with only Jessica and Kanon...


Obviously we were shown Jessica on the island several times but none of that is reliable due to the lack of a detective’s presence.

Consider the location check. Battler said: I acknowledge that all other people are in the cousins’ room.

It was Erika’s mistake to not make this specific and give everyone’s names, including Jessica’s.

There was never more than 17 people on the island during the two days of the incident. However, since Jessica was only on the island in the morning, Erika was the 18th person to arrive on the island during the game board’s time frame.

Now, why would Jessica not return to the island? There are many ways to explain that. Here’s an example:
Kanon was part of the murder plan and did not want to get Jessica involved with it. Kanon had Kumasawa lose Jessica in town and the relatives took off for the island without her since Kumasawa never mentioned that Jessica came along.

Edit: Kanon and Kumasawa would also need some sort of plan to account for Jessica's lack of presence when the relatives begin to question where she is. This would be difficult and they probably wouldn't be able to keep up the deception for very long. However, when the storm arrives and traps everyone on the island there is no longer any choice. They all would have to wait until the storm passes to search for Jessica.
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Originally Posted by Dlanor A. Knox View Post
Does anyone know what the name of Ep 7 will be?
I don't know but I like 'Checkmate of the Golden Witch' for the last one. Erika's idea, not mine.
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Old 2010-03-11, 06:27   Link #6449
Dlanor A. Knox
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Haha yeah ^^ it does souns cool, "Twist of the golden Witch" would also be cool right? because it is a huge twist with Bern-chan being the next GM...
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Old 2010-03-11, 08:04   Link #6450
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Ssol: In Episode 1, Jessica met the group on Niijima.
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Old 2010-03-11, 09:24   Link #6451
Raiza Sunozaki
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Originally Posted by rogerpepitone View Post
Ssol: In Episode 1, Jessica met the group on Niijima.
But that was under Battler's observation. We can't be sure if Battler was the detective in Episode 1, but also considering until midnight on the second day, no magical scenes happened, I think it's safe to assume Episode 1 is a stable episode.
Anyway, considering Battler, it's not surprising he would take a piece off the board and put it in his shirt pocket like that. But this is just like the trick Beato used in Episode 4 to excuse herself from her game. Tricking your opponent into doubting their own existence, and the disappearing in a poof of logic. I wonder if Battler had this up his sleeve the entire time.
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Old 2010-03-11, 10:09   Link #6452
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Well, you could argue that, but people like Jan-Poo will rightly criticize you for it. It's a very shaky theory and you'd have to explain why you think she's this or that and when. Then again, if Piece-Beato could represent different killers in ep1-4, I suppose the argument isn't too ludicrous, given that the Erika Doesn't Exist theory basically argues she's the same thing from a different angle.
Well saying that Erika and Erika's status is different in different games is still better than saying that Erika can be different persons inside the same game.

In other words the Erika ball theory is a lot more wacky, especially when you have a red text that says that "Erika" refers to the "actual person" in EP6.


Rather, the problem I have with this and with what Ssol just proposed is that this kind of "tricks" do not seem to have a real purpose except being dirty tricks that trick us.

What I think it's important to consider is that even if you don't like the shkannon theory, you'd have to consider that it is heavily hinted in EP6. Renall explains this fact by saying it's a planned troll. That's an acceptable interpretation. But it can't be denied or ignored.

Now let's suppose it's a troll, if it is, it's a big one. I can't believe Ryukishi made all of this just for trolling. I can only find it probable if Ryukishi used it to hide something else.

That's why I can't think that Ryukishi created this whole situation using all those ambiguous reds, only to tell us: "hey well actually it's just that this time Jessica isn't on the island." or "it's just that this time Erika doesn't exist".

This would give us 0 insight on Beatrice's game, it would be something completely useless to the end of understanding what is really happening on Rokkenjima.
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Old 2010-03-11, 10:13   Link #6453
luckyssol
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogerpepitone View Post
Ssol: In Episode 1, Jessica met the group on Niijima.
Ah, I guess the anime messed up my memory a bit since Jessica did not leave the island in episode 1 in the anime. Thank you, I'll fix that now.
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Well, you could argue that, but people like Jan-Poo will rightly criticize you for it. It's a very shaky theory and you'd have to explain why you think she's this or that and when. Then again, if Piece-Beato could represent different killers in ep1-4, I suppose the argument isn't too ludicrous, given that the Erika Doesn't Exist theory basically argues she's the same thing from a different angle.
Well, the problem I have with things like Shannon = Kanon is that it does not seem to have a real purpose except being a dirty trick to trick us.

I'm pretty sure Jan-Poo is wrong on this as there are way too many problems the theory creates. I do support Shkanon but not Shannon = Kanon. It just doesn't work for every episode.

Oh well, I already stated a clear clue that supports my theory. If he wants to argue against it with something that is substantive I would love to hear it. Other than that, it's just his misguided opinions.
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Old 2010-03-11, 15:17   Link #6454
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Shkannon is a dirty trick, but you're saying Jessica not being on the island isn't? That's a total mindfuck and ridiculous. So for one game she isn't there, for whatever reason. If that can happen then why can't Ange come into a game, even though she's sick.

Sorry, but I don't like that. Using the idea of there being no detective POV, you can say that nobody was on the island (barring a few in red). Many situations have no detective confirmation, but does that make it fake. If so, then throw out more than half of Umineko, because it just became utterly useless.

Plus, do you know how much Natsuhi would go berserk if she found out Kumasawa 'lost' Jessica. She would throw a major fit and I'm sure Krauss wouldn't be exactly pleased either. The fact that she wasn't angry or irritated or anything of that sort means that things were going particularly normal.


@Raiza Sunozaki: Battler is the detective in EP 1. Dlanor states in EP 5 that he was considered to be the detective through EP 1-4.
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Old 2010-03-11, 15:57   Link #6455
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Well, the problem I have with things like Shannon = Kanon is that it does not seem to have a real purpose except being a dirty trick to trick us.
I don't really agree with anything else you've said, but I really want to re-emphasize this. I've yet to see a sufficiently reasonable justification for Shannon or Kanon to be pretending to be another person actually visible on the island. Pretending to be Beatrice, sure, but that's a different matter. Beatrice doesn't show up on the shift schedule, after all.

Also, Ryukishi can't decide whether Jessica and Kumasawa come to Nijima or not. Seriously, go read the various episodes, he seems to decide completely at random whether those two come or not. Unless that's an important detail, I think he just "forgot Jessica" himself. Or else it's just like Erika's failure to account herself in the ep6 location check and he assumed it was self-evident (if indeed he did that in either case) that Jessica would be coming back with everyone else.
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Old 2010-03-11, 16:17   Link #6456
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marion View Post
Shkannon is a dirty trick, but you're saying Jessica not being on the island isn't? That's a total mindfuck and ridiculous. So for one game she isn't there, for whatever reason. If that can happen then why can't Ange come into a game, even though she's sick.

Sorry, but I don't like that. Using the idea of there being no detective POV, you can say that nobody was on the island (barring a few in red). Many situations have no detective confirmation, but does that make it fake. If so, then throw out more than half of Umineko, because it just became utterly useless.
Please

Look at the red truth for this episode. It's only possible for Genji or Jessica to have not been on the island and there is no clue for Genji leaving the island. I provided a clue for Jessica leaving.

You are going to sit there and argue that episode 6 happened exactly how we were shown especially considering Erika's behavior? No. Just no.
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Plus, do you know how much Natsuhi would go berserk if she found out Kumasawa 'lost' Jessica. She would throw a major fit and I'm sure Krauss wouldn't be exactly pleased either. The fact that she wasn't angry or irritated or anything of that sort means that things were going particularly normal.
Well, I already explained a possible scenario for that but you obviously didn't read it so it's not my fault.
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I don't really agree with anything else you've said, but I really want to re-emphasize this. I've yet to see a sufficiently reasonable justification for Shannon or Kanon to be pretending to be another person actually visible on the island. Pretending to be Beatrice, sure, but that's a different matter. Beatrice doesn't show up on the shift schedule, after all.

Also, Ryukishi can't decide whether Jessica and Kumasawa come to Nijima or not. Seriously, go read the various episodes, he seems to decide completely at random whether those two come or not. Unless that's an important detail, I think he just "forgot Jessica" himself. Or else it's just like Erika's failure to account herself in the ep6 location check and he assumed it was self-evident (if indeed he did that in either case) that Jessica would be coming back with everyone else.
Let me elaborate a bit on ‘Shkanon’. There are many different versions of this theory. I believe the mastermind manipulated people and that’s why the games are different.

So here's my theory:

---1---
The letter with the three choices was only shown to Battler in episode 4 but it was probably a test devised by the mastermind. I think this letter was initially sent to Shannon who was being manipulated. Shannon made her choice and presented the letter to Kanon who was also being manipulated by the mastermind. Since they both chose the third choice (everyone else’s lives) it became clear to them at that moment that only one of them would survive the day.

---2---
Rudolf said he probably was going to be killed in episode 1. In episode 5 he wanted to talk to Battler about his birth circumstances. However, I do not think Rudolf said that he would be killed because he thought Battler would kill him. I believe his life was threatened by the mastermind. Rudolf probably would tell Kyrie about this. After that, Kyrie might come up with a plan to fake a mass murder in order to flush out the one who was after Rudolf’s life. They would probably believe this person to be ‘person X’ after Beatrice’s letter appeared and they linked the one who was after Rudolf’s life to the one claiming to be Beatrice.


Since both of these events occur during the game board’s time frame on October 4th the outcome could be different. That’s why the games are different in my opinion.

Shkanontrice and Kyrietrice (factors directly influenced by the mastermind)
Game 1: The duel was in the Chapel before the boat arrived. Kanon won but Shannon didn’t die. Kyrie planned the fake mass murder.
Game 2: Shannon killed Kanon in Jessica’s room before the boat arrived. Kyrie planned the fake mass murder again.
Game 3: The duel was in the Chapel. Shannon won and Kanon died before the boat arrived. Kyrie did not plan the fake mass murder.
Game 4: They met on the beach but there was no duel. After talking with Kanon a bit Shannon decided the test should be for everyone instead of just Kanon. Kyrie did not plan the fake mass murder.
Game 5: They met on the beach but there was no duel. Just before they could talk about the letter Shannon had received they found Erika’s body washed up on the beach. After they confirmed she was still alive they decided that her presence could be advantageous to their original plan... Kyrie did not plan the fake mass murder but someone else did. This was due to Erika’s presence.
Game 6: They met on the beach but there was no duel. In this game they didn’t manipulate Erika but threatened her life instead. This ended up backfiring badly and Erika killed people to save her own life. The duel did occur later on in the arbor of the rose garden and Shannon won. Kyrie planned the fake mass murder in this episode as well.

Ah, Battler’s two mothers... Kyrie (who is probably his real mother) planned the fake mass murder on Rokkenjima and Asumu masterminded the real mass murder on Rokkenjima. Lovely indeed.
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Old 2010-03-11, 16:44   Link #6457
Judoh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ssol
---1---
The letter with the three choices was only shown to Battler in episode 4 but it was probably a test devised by the mastermind. I think this letter was initially sent to Shannon who was being manipulated. Shannon made her choice and presented the letter to Kanon who was also being manipulated by the mastermind. Since they both chose the third choice (everyone else’s lives) it became clear to them at that moment that only one of them would survive the day.
Beleive it or not I have a similar theory for the letters that were found by Ange in 1998. Ange's letter was the only one that was never found. She was sure she might have gotten one, but I'm not exactly sure the third letter even existed. If it did it doesn't follow the pattern since the rest of them were sent to the family of the servants. Why is Ange the only Ushiromiya to receive one? If there was a third letter it was probably sent to the Fukuin house and Ange never went there to check. I don't think it's necessary to deduce that the mastermind is related to Ange because she might have sent her the letter with the Bank account number. She was so young it would be easier for her to think that she got a letter, but maybe that never happened. Even if one was sent though I think that anyone in the business world could of set up the bank account. Heck if Hideyoshi is the mastermind Okonogi could have set up the account for him. The money that's in there was probably obtained illegally or it was from an unknown sponsor. Either that or since George was "well on his way in the business world" it's possible he could've created it, but a large portion of the money would probably have to be yakuza money. In fact I've seen theories flying around that George was the person who wrote 07151129 on the wall. It would explain why he suddenly disappears out the window.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ssol
---2---
Rudolf said he probably was going to be killed in episode 1. In episode 5 he wanted to talk to Battler about his birth circumstances. However, I do not think Rudolf said that he would be killed because he thought Battler would kill him. I believe his life was threatened by the mastermind. Rudolf probably would tell Kyrie about this. After that, Kyrie might come up with a plan to fake a mass murder in order to flush out the one who was after Rudolf’s life. They would probably believe this person to be ‘person X’ after Beatrice’s letter appeared and they linked the one who was after Rudolf’s life to the one claiming to be Beatrice.
Well I'm not sure why you think he thought Battler would kill him. I don't think a mysterious letter is enough to cover that. This is the way I think it happened though. Rudolf wanted to talk to Kyrie about Battler's birth circumstances, but he felt that she would be angry enough to kill him when he told her. So he left with that in mind knowing Kyrie would deduce that he wanted to be followed to talk about it. And his parents talk about it while Battler is in the guesthouse. In episode 1 his birth was an awkward topic that he didn't want to talk about with Battler. In Episode 5 it's different. He's proud of Battler and wants to be with them both to talk about it. He looks at him as grown up in episode 5 and thinks he's ready to know. However the murders happen before he can say anything.
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Old 2010-03-11, 16:54   Link #6458
luckyssol
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
Beleive it or not I have a similar theory for the letters that were found by Ange in 1998. Ange's letter was the only one that was never found. She was sure she might have gotten one, but I'm not exactly sure the third letter even existed. If it did it doesn't follow the pattern since the rest of them were sent to the family of the servants. Why is Ange the only Ushiromiya to receive one? If there was a third letter it was probably sent to the Fukuin house and Ange never went there to check. I don't think it's necessary to deduce that the mastermind is related to Ange because she might have sent her the letter with the Bank account number. She was so young it would be easier for her to think that she got a letter, but maybe that never happened. Even if one was sent though I think that anyone in the business world could of set up the bank account. Heck if Hideyoshi is the mastermind Okonogi could have set up the account for him. The money that's in there was probably obtained illegally or it was from an unknown sponsor. Either that or since George was "well on his way in the business world" it's possible he could've created it, but a large portion of the money would probably have to be yakuza money. In fact I've seen theories flying around that George was the person who wrote 07151129 on the wall. It would explain why he suddenly disappears out the window.
I have no problem with that theory but it's very likely that the bank letters were sent to everyone from the island considering the clue given to us where there were around 20 different safes in the secure vault.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
Well I'm not sure why you think he thought Battler would kill him. I don't think a mysterious letter is enough to cover that. This is the way I think it happened though. Rudolf wanted to talk to Kyrie about Battler's birth circumstances, but he felt that she would be angry enough to kill him when he told her. So he left with that in mind knowing Kyrie would deduce that he wanted to be followed to talk about it. In episode 1 his birth was an awkward topic that he didn't want to talk about with Battler. In Episode 5 it's different. He's proud of Battler and wants to be with them both to talk about it. He looks at him as grown up in episode 5 and thinks he's ready to know. However the murders happen before he can say anything.
I have no problem with that theory as well. We just haven't gotten the specific details regarding why Rudolf thought his life was threatened yet.
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Old 2010-03-11, 17:14   Link #6459
Marion
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Well, I already explained a possible scenario for that but you obviously didn't read it so it's not my fault.
I did read your scenario and it still doesn't make sense to me. I don't think Natsuhi would really care about a storm if her only daughter is missing somewhere, without contacting them. The storm itself doesn't usually come until around dinner time, so there would still be time to call up the ship captain again. The fact that Jessica does appear means that everyone is accepting her presence, creating a lie (this is basically how magic in the game works: all observers to a situation make a lie and that's what we see. EP 5 in the guest room is a good example). Sorry, but this is just too much of a mindfuck and feels almost cheapened. What would be the point of having Jessica in magic battles and get development again with Kanon, if she isn't even on the island.

Plus even without a detective around, I'm sure Erika or Bern would point out Jessica's absence through a meta perspective.

Quote:
You are going to sit there and argue that episode 6 happened exactly how we were shown especially considering Erika's behavior? No. Just no.
I'm not arguing that. I'm arguing the fact that you think a person is missing and nobody is even mentioning it. If Erika was aware Jessica wasn't around then she would be able to get out of the 17 people explanation by stating Jessica's absence.
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Old 2010-03-11, 17:26   Link #6460
luckyssol
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marion View Post
I did read your scenario and it still doesn't make sense to me. I don't think Natsuhi would really care about a storm if her only daughter is missing somewhere, without contacting them. The storm itself doesn't usually come until around dinner time, so there would still be time to call up the ship captain again. The fact that Jessica does appear means that everyone is accepting her presence, creating a lie (this is basically how magic in the game works: all observers to a situation make a lie and that's what we see. EP 5 in the guest room is a good example). Sorry, but this is just too much of a mindfuck and feels almost cheapened. What would be the point of having Jessica in magic battles and get development again with Kanon, if she isn't even on the island.
Shannon = Kanon is a total mindfuck
Erika not existing is a total mindfuck
Jessica not being on the island for most of episode 6 is a total mindfuck

Prepare to be mindfucked
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Originally Posted by Marion View Post
Plus even without a detective around, I'm sure Erika or Bern would point out Jessica's absence through a meta perspective.

I'm not arguing that. I'm arguing the fact that you think a person is missing and nobody is even mentioning it. If Erika was aware Jessica wasn't around then she would be able to get out of the 17 people explanation by stating Jessica's absence.
Look at the request Erika made:
Quote:
“私は救出者ではない。"
Erika: "I am not the rescuer."
当然だ!そなたは探偵ではないか。安心せよ、妾はそれを尊重する!
Beato: Of course not! You’re the detective, aren’t you? Relax, I’ll respect that!
She was clearly there right? She would notice if Battler tried to sneak out while she was at the door with the chain.

Why is she asking if she's the rescuer if she knows she didn't rescue Battler? Simple. She knows that her piece's perspective is not reliable.
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