Russia invasion of Ukraine

[Renegade334]

Given the S400's recent counterperformance against the ATACMS, it would make sense to send the ABM-dedicated S500 to Crimea - if only to defend the remaining S300/S400 batteries still stationed there from the Ukrainian ballistic missile threat. For now it's there to protect the Kerch bridge from ATACMS, Hrim-2s (current production status unknown) and the last couple of Tochka-Us still in Ukrainian inventory (if any; they've probably been all used up).

That said, claims about the S500's special unicorn performance should be taken with a grain of salt; the S500 system has been massively delayed (and I think the first Russian unit to receive said it didn't meet full expectations/requirements) and a single battery costs two arms, a leg and a liver. Production was also severely hampered by Western sanctions, so...if the S500 goes up in flames, that's gonna be one big black eye on Russia's face as there are very, very few of these lying around...

[Yu Ominae]

I heard that it's suppose to be $2.5 billion to get one made. Also hearing that only one was made as a production model.

And the Russians want to market this to their partner countries like India (and maybe the Central Asian countries).

[Yu Ominae]

https://news.online.ua/en/russian-ai...-atesh-880013/

ATESH (Ukrainian partisan group operating in/around Crimea) revealed via Telegram that Russian air defense servicemen were told to evac their families from Crimea.

[Renegade334]

Originally Posted by Yu Ominae

I heard that it's suppose to be $2.5 billion to get one made. Also hearing that only one was made as a production model.

A S500 battery comprises two missile types: the antiaircraft 40N6M and the antiballistic 77N6 (the anti-satellite 77N6-N1 probably caused the S500 to be misconstrued as a S550). 40N6M is already in use with the S400 and we all saw how well it fared against ATACMS (though, to be honest, the S500 should have slightly better radars and fire control, and the S400 has other missile types than just the 40N6M). The 77N6 is a huge missile with a massive booster to give itself enough Delta-v to hit hypersonic targets flying high in the atmosphere (although AFAIK, it doesn't have exo-atmospheric engagement capabilities like THAAD does), hundreds of miles away. That gigantism comes with a huge price tag...and lower production rates. Each launch better be worth it in Russia's eyes.
So...if Ukraine does a multilayered smurf attack on the S500 using MALDs, small drones, Storm Shadows then ATACMS, the S500 could be in for a world of pain.

And the Russians want to market this to their partner countries like India (and maybe the Central Asian countries).

India, Pakistan and China would be the main markets since they're the only ones in the region concerned about ballistic missile threats. North Korea could be a potential client, though AFAIK it doesn't even have S400s (which the S500 is supposed to complement) and it could be more of a trade-in (S500 in exchange for ammunition) than an actual sale. Armenia and Azerbaijan could be interested given their last round of fisticuffs, though I do believe Armenia is not too pleased with Russia at the moment and is looking to exit the CIS treaty.

[Yu Ominae]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia...russia-4410456

CNA analysis on who in SEA is not going/going to Bern.

Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, East Timor and Indonesia going.

Those who aren't going:

Cambodia - Not pleased Moscow is not attending. In the “Cambodia’s Foreign Policy in the ASEAN Context” Discussion Forum, Secretary of State and Senior Official of Cambodia Kung Phoak stressed the decision was not related to Cambodia’s stand on the war.

Malaysia - PM Anwar more outspoken about what's happening in Israel/Gaza than what's happening in Eastern Europe.

Vietnam - Neutral. Want to commit to Bamboo diplomacy.

Myanmar - Besties with Russia.

Laos - Besties with Russia.

Brunei - Likely to not attend. No official response.