2010-05-17, 02:35 | Link #10001 | |
Maelstorm-Fenrir
|
What is Occam's Razor?
Quote:
Great another tri personaity Shannon idea XD. |
|
2010-05-17, 03:01 | Link #10002 |
Homo Ludens
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Canada
Age: 34
|
"Entities must not be multiplied beyond necessity" or, more straightforwardly put, "the simplest solution is usually the best".
When using this to solve mysteries, it means we should favor the more elegant solutions, ones that provide answers involving the least amount of assumptions. In other words, one murderer is better than two, simply because you have to explain less. |
2010-05-17, 03:12 | Link #10003 | |
Maelstorm-Fenrir
|
Quote:
|
|
2010-05-17, 03:59 | Link #10004 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Apr 2010
|
You know what ? I hope that Umineko will had 10 EPs...why ? Just to fill the epitaph. Maybe the epitaph doesn't only say where is the gold.
"At the second twilight, the surviving shall tear apart the two who are close." In EP2 Jessica+Kanon and Shannon+George were killed together. (for George "Perhaps they could have been the 2nd twilight") In EP3, it's centred about Eva-Beatrice, and all this meta-world trick to trap Battler could be the "At the third twilight, the surviving shall praise my honorable name on high." In EP4 : "At the fourth twilight, gouge the head and kill." It's obvious that most of the crimes where shots on the head except for Kanon and Maria (Shanon probably pushed him in the well, if she is the culprit here) In EP5 : "At the fifth twilight, gouge the chest and kill." Hideyoshi was hit in the chest, because the stake reached his lungs. And you can say that Natshui had her heart completely destroyed by Bern. Heart and chest are not far from each other, I guess. I didn't read EP6, did someone died with the stomach pierced or something like that ? But if Umineko end on EP8, it's not fun anymore...but if it reach EP9, it's a bit...harsh : "At the ninth twilight, the Witch shall live again and none shall be left to live."...I feel epic fail for battler here... The "Golden Land" could be the world on the truth ? What really happened ? The Golden Truth behind the game ? And the key shall be the love of Beatrice or Beatrice herself ? |
2010-05-17, 05:30 | Link #10006 | |
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
|
Quote:
__________________
|
|
2010-05-17, 05:39 | Link #10007 |
Blick Winkel
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Gobbled up by Promathia
|
I'm sort of suspicious about Kanon in Episode 1. Especially the whole scene with the boiler room.
Let us say that a planned explosion is set in the boiler room. Only a few people know about it. When Kumasawa and Kanon leave to "check the kitchen" for the source of the smell, they hear a sound from the boiler room. While it may seem natural to assume that Kanon only wanted to prevent whoever was down there from escaping, a different idea can be presented if we assume Kanon to be a culprit (or, at least, an accomplice). Now let us say that Kanon set up the timed explosion (he might not of; he could just be an accomplice. But the reasoning doesn't change). He hears a sound in the boiler room and runs down there, not because he suspects that the culprit is trying to escape, but he wants to make sure that no one finds out about the trap. After arriving, he may or may not find anyone down there. Who knows; it may have just been a delusion or a misunderstanding. The important thing is that Kanon is down there and that the others may come down there to investigate. Kanon does not want anyone to discover the trap, so in desperation, he creates a diversion. That diversion is his own "death." He sets up his own death (which may or may actually result in him being dead, he could have been faking it) so that the siblings do not notice anything suspicious in the room. Another thing to bring up is Kinzo's burnt body in the basement. The perpetrator would have to know that Kinzo was dead, or they would be at least a bit startled too see the body. Thus, since Kanon is a servant and was informed by Krauss of Kinzo's death, he would not be surprised that someone tried to cover up Kinzo's corpse with the Epitaph mystery. Either that, or it's not actually Kinzo's body. I don't know. Edit: Random thought--- If Shannon is behind it all, then it would make sense for Kanon to avenge her. You know, since they're close. I suspect, that since the explosion incident has been confirmed, there are two groups: a.) Bomb squad b.) Murder squad While Shannon may be behind the bombings (with Kanon's help), she unfortunately gets murdered in the first twilight and can not ensure her plan's success. So Kanon takes control of the operation and makes sure that his cover isn't blown. Even if it means killing himself to do it (that's a lot of dedication for such a plan, but it could happen). Second edit: You know, the strange smell was probably some sort of explosive fluid, like gasoline. The only reason I can back this up is because a similar thing happened in Higurashi. When Rena went all terrorist on the school, a lot of the kids had been complaining of a smell in the school. That sort of reminded me of this, a bit. Perhaps Kanon remembered how the family treated Eva and Hideyoshi's deaths: they wanted to preserve the crime scene. By "killing himself," he knew that the family would not change the crime scene until the police came. So that seemed to be the best course of action for him to prevent the foiling of the trap. Last edited by DaBackpack; 2010-05-17 at 06:11. |
2010-05-17, 07:52 | Link #10008 |
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
|
The following is not a theory. Meaning that I am not about to write out in detail how it could explain everything -- I am not sure it even can. I am only detailing something which I think makes sense and explains things. It is more of a 'whydunnit' than 'whodunnit'. It is very probably wrong in many places, but maybe you ladies and gentlemen can hammer it into shape.
So let's call this a Dispersed Beatrice Hypothesis. Let me try to answer some major questions...
Yep, I'm pretty sure this text won't be received particularly well.
__________________
|
2010-05-17, 08:26 | Link #10009 | ||||||||
Blick Winkel
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Gobbled up by Promathia
|
Quote:
Quote:
Or, I just thought of something: It seems that there is a major change that happens between the Question Arcs and the Core Arcs. Of course, there is a high likelyhood that Battler is responsible for this. Therefore, I present this: Asumu's son Battler is on the island when the cousins are young. This is the Battler that develops a relationship with Jessica. Likewise, when Battler returns after six years (in the Question Arcs), this is the same Asumu-Battler that has a relationship with Jessica. However, when the Core Arcs come around, SOMETHING happens to Asumu-Battler and Kyrie's son Battler takes his place! This explains Battler being a culprit in the Core Arcs! Random speculation ^^ Anyways, while I disagree with some of your arguments, I like where you're going with this. It's certainly a feasible Edit: Did Ryukishi say that the "explosion incident" was from a central explosion? What if, instead a central explosion in the boiler room, they are isolated incidences? As in, if Gohda was instructed to make SMALL BOMBS in his food. If some sort of cure is provided with the solving of the Epitaph... then they'd become immune to the bombs and they would be excreted normally. (The problem with this is that it takes around 24 hours for food to be digested, which is slightly less than the time span of the game). This is sort of a gag theory, but still. Last edited by DaBackpack; 2010-05-17 at 08:39. Reason: SMALL BOMBS |
||||||||
2010-05-17, 08:47 | Link #10010 | |||
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
|
Quote:
Let us call the Beatrice Kinzo met during WWII or soon after, who is the origin of his gold stash, "Beatrice-1", the earliest known Beatrice. There are currently two good theories who she could be -- 1) She was American, part of the occupation administration, siphoning valuables seized as part of the occupation, apparently known in Japanese folklore as the "M Funds" and the subject of popular 419-style scams today. 2) She was a foreigner otherwise involved with the treasure known as "Yamashita's gold", seized in Asia during WWII. Kinzo clearly built Kuwadorian before the main mansion, if he built it at all and didn't acquire it by some other means, and there she lived and died before 1952, leaving him with a child, which we will now call "Beatrice-2". Losing the love of his life, Kinzo slowly went insane, attempting to resurrect the personality of Beatrice-1 in Beatrice-2. In 1967 or 1968, Beatrice-2 died, and Kuwadorian was mostly abandoned. There's a certain chance that Kumasawa actually is Beatrice-1, but that doesn't fly very well with how she was treated as a servant all the way since. There's also a chance that Beatrice-1 never actually existed, but somehow Kinzo actually acquired the child known as Beatrice-2 anyway. The Beatrice seen on the gameboard is Beatrice-3, the third in this line, and this is a title I believe is claimed both by Jessica and Shannon. Quote:
Quote:
A theory is something clearly supported with arguments, my long ramble mostly runs on intuition.
__________________
|
|||
2010-05-17, 08:55 | Link #10011 | |
Blick Winkel
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Gobbled up by Promathia
|
Quote:
I suppose that works too. The thing is, though, is how this deviates from the Occam's Razor. I realize that this isn't exactly an easy game to solve (oh, hell no) but all of these things about aliases is sort of complicated. Granted, this hypothesis is one of the more simpler ones on the website. I agree with the "keep it simple, stupid" mindset, that is the Occam Razor mindset. But I was sort of hoping that a puzzle of this magnitude would not rely on wordplay in its solution, or sneaky manipulation of the Red Truth. I just seems like sort of a let-down if advanced wordplay is utilized in the solution. After all, the Knox Commandments exist so that a "cheap" solution is not allowed to exist in a fair-play mystery. But you know, I wouldn't put it above the author. Edit: Err, I'm not trying to come across as a jerk here. Your ideas are good, regardless |
|
2010-05-17, 09:06 | Link #10012 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2009
|
Wow, Oliver. Points 1-4, 5 and 6 are bloody fucking brilliant.
Point one makes sense to me, and it includes the fact that Jessica was also in love with Battler. Point two I can completely agree with, but let me see if I can extend on it. Considering the two Beatos that we see in Episode 4, let's place Shannon as Dress-Beato and Jessica as Suit-Beato. This explains why Suit-Beato was so irritated when Battler couldn't remember his sin, and why Dress-Beato said it had nothing to do with her (then again, it sort of did). The rest of the point is a little ironic though, considering Jessica's the one who is more likely to not be related by blood to the family. Point three. This is interesting, but I think while Maria was the one who originally brought in the topic of magic, Shannon and Kumasawa rapidly grew on the idea. Even if it was just an attempt to keep her entertained on an island where she'd probably get bored very quickly, I think they started learning about magic, and then became fascinated in the idea themselves (or at least Shannon). Point four. I've got no complaint here, but I think it's more that Kanon was pretending to be the man from nineteen years ago, because I still refuse to believe the possiblity that a child could survive a fall that far down. I like the rest of it though. Point five. I can't imagine Jessica being the one that set us up the bomb, mostly because I can't see her personality allowing wide-scale murder like that. More so, the bomb goes off even when Battler finds the gold and announces it to the family in Episode 5, so I doubt the bomb has to do with finding the gold. Point six. Not much to say here, but I think Genji/Shannon would be holding onto the ring, and since Genji has access to Kinzo's study, it would be easy to grab a stack of the head's letters and write up a letter at any time. Point seven. It's less of a solution to anything and more of just random symbolism, but I like it. Point eight. I can't agree large chunks of this. Mostly, the fact that Jessica kills Kinzo. As hard as it would be to hide, I doubt Jessica is even aware Kinzo is dead. She's not seen in the scene where the islanders are mourning his death, and it's not like she regularily goes out of her way to see if he's all right. Though, Shannon is her best friend and Beato confident, so there is a possiblity that she leaked the news to her. Thinking back, I'm not even sure there's any proof that Krauss kept Kinzo's corpse around. We know it gets burned up in several of the Episodes, but couldn't have been buried to make Kinzo "disappear," then dug up by one of the servants in on the Twilights scheme? I'm not familiar with how long it takes for a body to decompose, though they could probably find a makeshift coffin for the body somewhere on the island, which would lengthen the decomposition time. So I don't think Natsuhi has the intention of skipping Krauss and placing the headship on Jessica. We've been shown that for how much of a naive idiot Krauss is, Natsuhi does love him, and is willing to support him whenever he needs it. I won't deny that Eva wants either for herself to become the next head or for George to inherit it, but I doubt she would kill for it. Nor Hideyoshi for that matter. They're all for blackmail and deception, but I think Eva's plan is more to uncover whether or not Kinzo is really dead, then use it to blackmail Krauss to admit that he does not have the ability to act as the family head, having it passed on to the next in line, which is likely her or George. As for Hideyoshi, we know that he lived for quite a while without a family to enjoy life with. Now that he has this large and lively family, I doubt he would willingly kill them. Blackmail and decieve them, yes, but not kill them. Rudolf and Kyrie. I can't say for sure if I can consider them killers. I'm especially doubtful of Kyrie, since she feels more like a red herring to me than anything, and I think if one of them is a killer, the other one would be as well, and inversely, if one of the isn't, the other one isn't as well. They don't seem to be the kind of couple that hides things from each other. I'm more for they're just trying to reveal Kinzo's death, just for the sake of money. Rudolf doesn't feel like the kind of person who really wants the responsibilities of the head. I like your idea that Kanon is the one who kills Natsuhi at the end of Episode 1, since there no proof that he's dead. Still, the deaths of the six in the shed are ambiguous, and it's not like it's impossible for them to get out. |
2010-05-17, 09:17 | Link #10013 | |
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
|
Quote:
The truly critical bits about my Dispersed Beatrice Hypothesis are these assumptions:
__________________
|
|
2010-05-17, 09:23 | Link #10014 |
別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
|
The problem I see with that Oliver, is the fact that those that you define as "hints" of this theory are actually not hints that directly point to Jessitrice and could be quite possibly interpreted as hints to support shanontrice, which has many other hints in addition to those.
__________________
|
2010-05-17, 09:32 | Link #10015 | ||||||
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
|
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
As a side note, Natsuhi or Krauss can have the motivation to blow the mansion up. They don't own it anymore. Quote:
Quote:
Well, I'll grant you that -- but, I'm pretty sure George is prepared to kill if he has to and can imagine multiple situations in which he will think he has to. Quote:
I think Kanon is the most likely candidate for this particular shooting, because in Ep5 he expresses disapproval of the Kinzo Phantom Conspiracy rather strongly. Imagining that Natsuhi is the mastermind and then calling her out on a duel (which, if he is indeed a child of Beatrice-2, he has all the rights to do, being the oldest surviving son of Kinzo) would be quite in line with that. I don't think he killed anyone else in Ep1.
__________________
|
||||||
2010-05-17, 09:33 | Link #10016 | |
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
|
Quote:
That's the one I find the most important.
__________________
|
|
2010-05-17, 10:25 | Link #10017 | |||||||
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2009
|
Quote:
Seriously. Meta-Beato, Dress-Beato(probably the same), Suit-Beato, Beato the Former (Rosa's Beato), Virgillia, Evatrice, Ange-Beato, Coma-Beato, Moetrice, Long-Haired-Suit-Beato... If Ryuukishi throws in another Beato in Episode 7, I'm going to go crazy. On a side note which is probably useless, there are now the same number of Beatos as human females (excluding Kasumi, since she's a crazy bitch, and Maria, who has her own witch incarnation). Randomly, here's my opinion on Occam's Razor. While a magnificent tool for solving things that appear more complicated than they are, I find it's completely useless for Umineko. "Reality is as simple as possible," eh? The whole point of Umineko is to complicate things with magic and fantasy, so that when you attempt to ignore all of it and reach for the simplest answer, you end up way off. The whole Illusion of the Witch prevents reaching the simplest answer. Quote:
Quote:
Still if the "real" Beato that he's talking about here is Jessica, the line about being like Kinzo would be sensible. Quote:
Even more so remember 1998. Despite it either being a severe hint or Ryuukishi being an idiot, it's stated that Eva died in a similar way to Kinzo. Meaning she'd have to have died in an accident caused by someone else for this to be true. Though her cause of death is ambiguous, it feels more like she's dying from some internal sickness than an injury. Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
|
|||||||
2010-05-17, 10:38 | Link #10018 | |
別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
|
Quote:
What is important to us is who "Beato" is. In other words the Beatrice Battler sinned against, the one who is an expert of mystery novels and the one who "asked lambda to give her the power to create the games". Then again, I wonder why should I trust what Bern said in EP1, when even after EP6 she proves to be quite ignorant on who Beatrice really is.
__________________
|
|
2010-05-17, 10:59 | Link #10019 | ||
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
|
Quote:
That sin has to be 'one of the causes of this tragedy'. The easiest way to do it is to cause Kinzo's death through either Jessica's or Shannon's actions, which inevitably results in the mess we see. The other major component of the mess' triggers is actually Ange, who tactlessly demands that Maria show her magic. This estranges her from Maria and alters the perceptions and motivations of Shannon and Kumasawa indirectly. Quote:
It is quite possible to cause the death of someone who has a known weak heart by accident, especially considering that at the time, the only serious way to extend their lifespan is coronary artery bypass surgery, as coronary stenting has not yet been well developed or widespread. Curiously, if that happened, Jessica doesn't really have to know up until seeing his body.
__________________
|
||
2010-05-17, 11:01 | Link #10020 | |
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
|
Quote:
Mind you, I'm not planning to fight for this hypothesis too much. Unless anyone except me actually cares to try to bring it to a theory level and see if it actually explains anything, it's worthless anyway.
__________________
|
|
|
|