Spring 2011: Your Expectations and Anticipated Series

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by applejuice

Hana-saku Iroha is 2-cour.

Huh, that's kind of surprising, especially for an anime-original. More reason to look forward to it, then.

[Kid Ryan]

A new version of the Spring 2011 Anime Chart is out now:
http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/6...ring2011v3.jpg

1,203px × 3,168px (scaled to 161px × 424px)

I plan on only watching Blue Exorcist (Ao no Exorcist), Deadman Wonderland, Gintama 2011, X-Men Anime, and Yu-Gi-Oh! ZEXAL.

[cohen]

Great, another Zexal watcher

[Suzuku]

Originally Posted by applejuice

Shitty Anime-one Anticipation Ranking
http://animapple.blogspot.com/2011/0...n-ranking.html
This is pretty shitty list as 2ch guys are saying. Everything is bombed if this ranking is true (due to Kami Nomi 2nd season with inevitable faith of manabi). Hidan no Aria has absolutely no aura of big success larger than Index II currently. Only thing that actually promises some money is Denpa Onna, Steins;Gate and Nichijou.

Sadly, I guess 2ch won't make their own anticipation list again like winter 2011....

Wait, that doesn't make sense. You imply that Aria will be around Index and then say that the only money makers are those three. Index II level is some big money. :/

Also, I don't how Denpa and Steins;Gate are promising or have any level of hype. The only notable series White Fox has done is Katanagatari, which is very good but doesn't equal blockbuster sales like you're implying; only around 7,000-9,000. As for Denpa, SHAFT may have produced the biggest blockbuster in the last decade with Bake, and it's looking like Madoka may even surpass that, but let's not forget that the majority of their properties fail to sale. It was obvious that Madoka had potential from the beginning due to the staff and producers, but Denpa has no such clout.

IMO, the ones that are certain to sale are Nichijou (Kyoani), Ano Hana (Toradora/Railgun staff=over 10,000), Seikon no Qwaser II (should do fine if it's consistent with first season sales) and Gintama.

I do put my money on [C], Ao no Exorcist, Dog Days, Aria, Steins;Gate, A Channel, Iroha, and Denpa selling well though.

[manekineko]

Fireball charm　
(･ω･`｡)ｷｮﾛｷｮﾛ(｡´･ω･)
Though it doesn't get on ･･･

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQz6YXue36Q

[applejuice]

Originally Posted by Suzuku

Wait, that doesn't make sense. You imply that Aria will be around Index and then say that the only money makers are those three. Index II level is some big money. :/

When you try to guess, it is better to set domain large so that it can actually be accurate. Plus, Index animation was never judged positively in terms of quality. You can call it 'success that isn't success'.

Also, I don't how Denpa and Steins;Gate are promising or have any level of hype. The only notable series White Fox has done is Katanagatari, which is very good but doesn't equal blockbuster sales like you're implying; only around 7,000-9,000. As for Denpa, SHAFT may have produced the biggest blockbuster in the last decade with Bake, and it's looking like Madoka may even surpass that, but let's not forget that the majority of their properties fail to sale. It was obvious that Madoka had potential from the beginning due to the staff and producers, but Denpa has no such clout.

Because creating hype involves more than just one factor... >_>...

Steins;Gate is much more hyped in actual otaku community and it IS the one of the most hyped one of all (which means you are just wrong). Most of people (at least in 2ch and mai Korean community) agrees that Steins;Gate LN has even better atmosphere than Mahou Shoujo Madoka Magica. Whether or not whitefox is a good studio, it is destined to get large attention.

'Majority of Shaft's properties fail to sale'? What the hack are you talking about? Except 2008 and 2009, Shaft always sold above the manabi line. Even during those two years period, Bakemonogatari and Hidamari Sketch was extremely big success to cover all those failures. If you don't know, Shaft is one of the most consistent money-maker among the studio due to their low budget and low staff numbers. Staffs aren't promising? Miyamoto Yukihiro being as a series director itself means that Shaft is taking Denpa Onna as their first priority work after Madoka. Denpa Onna hype is only increasing since Asa-ne's godly character design is revealed. Not only that, Bakemonogatari was Shaft's first attempt on touching LN, and this is second one. If I am a producer, I will definitely take Shaft as the first priority choice for animating this, as they are the one who 'BROKE THE IMPOSSIBLE' and they might do it 'AGAIN'.

Please do research when you try to guess something before saying I don't make sense... (plus, it's better for you to not touch Shaft when you discuss something like this with me, k?... this is suggestion, not a threat.... u.u~~)

Edited: plus, Madoka will not be able to surpass Bakemonogatari since its DVD pre-order ranking is not showing any potential.

IMO, the ones that are certain to sale are Nichijou (Kyoani), Ano Hana (Toradora/Railgun staff=over 10,000), Seikon no Qwaser II (should do fine if it's consistent with first season sales) and Gintama.

I do put my money on [C], Ao no Exorcist, Dog Days, Aria, Steins;Gate, A Channel, Iroha, and Denpa selling well though.

...Nichijou?... I was assuming that will be one of the lower sales that Kyoani will ever make. Original manga is so astral, its extremely hard to animate for any studio. Moreover, most of staffs involved in this is NEWBIE (even casts are...). Of course, Kyoani is the one who can break the impossible, but 'certain to sell' is definitely not something you can assume at this point.

Ano Hana? >_>... noitaminA jinx says it will never have better sales than Toradora, or even possibility of Bomb if it is 'average'. Plus, it's original animation not LN mediamix, so your guess is only 50% accurate. It's funny that you say it has possibility of 'certain to sale'. Though, myself is anticipating the series a lot.

[RRW]

well what i think is this
aria success will be like usual 12 ep JC staff anime. not as big as index

Denpa Onna obviously will not creating big hit like bake. consider that bake it self pretty much big LN title form famous Author while Denpa Onna pretty much normal LN. the anime success pretty much in line with Hidamari Sketch.

[Chaos2Frozen]

Originally Posted by rrw

well what i think is this
aria success will be like usual 12 ep JC staff anime. not as big as index

Best we can hope for is ZnT level of success.


(While I didn't like the direction it took, but I have to give it credit for having 3 seasons)

[applejuice]

Originally Posted by rrw

Denpa Onna obviously will not creating big hit like bake. consider that bake it self pretty much big LN title form famous Author while Denpa Onna pretty much normal LN. the anime success pretty much in line with Hidamari Sketch.

Denpa Onna is more of dark horse. I never said it will do gigantic success like bake... u.u~

[Suzuku]

Originally Posted by applejuice

Because creating hype involves more than just one factor... >_>...

Steins;Gate is much more hyped in actual otaku community and it IS the one of the most hyped one of all (which means you are just wrong). Most of people (at least in 2ch and mai Korean community) agrees that Steins;Gate LN has even better atmosphere than Mahou Shoujo Madoka Magica. Whether or not whitefox is a good studio, it is destined to get large attention.

I take the historical success of the studios over internet fan hype, which tends to shift very quickly. TBH I'm just weary of Steins;Gate because of Chaos;Head.

'Majority of Shaft's properties fail to sale'? What the hack are you talking about? Except 2008 and 2009, Shaft always sold above the manabi line. Even during those two years period, Bakemonogatari and Hidamari Sketch was extremely big success to cover all those failures. If you don't know, Shaft is one of the most consistent money-maker among the studio due to their low budget and low staff numbers. Staffs aren't promising? Miyamoto Yukihiro being as a series director itself means that Shaft is taking Denpa Onna as their first priority work after Madoka. Denpa Onna hype is only increasing since Asa-ne's godly character design is revealed. Not only that, Bakemonogatari was Shaft's first attempt on touching LN, and this is second one. If I am a producer, I will definitely take Shaft as the first priority choice for animating this, as they are the one who 'BROKE THE IMPOSSIBLE' and they might do it 'AGAIN'.

Please do research when you try to guess something before saying I don't make sense... (plus, it's better for you to not touch Shaft when you discuss something like this with me, k?... this is suggestion, not a threat.... u.u~~)

Alright alright, you have the SHAFT thing. >.>

Edited: plus, Madoka will not be able to surpass Bakemonogatari since its DVD pre-order ranking is not showing any potential.

Not showing any potential? 6,000-7,000 for DVD is pretty good, but indeed isn't on the same level as Bake. Of course, I'm going off the assumption that the BD sales will off set that, since it looks like Madoka will sale about the same amount of BDs in its first week as Bake vol 1 sold in its lifetime. About 62,000 BDs the first week coupled with around 7,000 DVDs would be 70,000 the first week. After that it only needs to add 10,000 more to surpass Bake, which isn't out of the realm of possibility since second week sales should add a good chunk of BDs.

...Nichijou?... I was assuming that will be one of the lower sales that Kyoani will ever make. Original manga is so astral, its extremely hard to animate for any studio. Moreover, most of staffs involved in this is NEWBIE (even casts are...). Of course, Kyoani is the one who can break the impossible, but 'certain to sell' is definitely not something you can assume at this point.

Yeah, I actually take the quirkiness of the manga as a good sign rather than a bad one. I'm pretty sure no one thought Haruhi could sale 40,000+ with its premise and source material, but Kyoani made it work. Same with Lucky Star and even K-ON. I'm really looking forward to see what Kyoani does with a SHAFT-type anime.

Ano Hana? >_>... noitaminA jinx says it will never have better sales than Toradora, or even possibility of Bomb if it is 'average'. Plus, it's original animation not LN mediamix, so your guess is only 50% accurate. It's funny that you say it has possibility of 'certain to sale'. Though, myself is anticipating the series a lot.

I took the noitaminA jinx into account, which is why I'm not certain [C] will sale, but I just can't see the Toradora/Railgun staff not succeeding, since they wre in similar predicaments with both Toradora and Railgun. Toradora had absolutely no hype when it first started and the general consensus was that Index was a much better show, and by the end of its run it was selling nearly on par with Index, even though it was DVD only sales. Same with Railgun. No one thought Railgun would sale past 10,000 because Index S1 sales were already tittering on the 10,000 line at vol 8, but they took it and turned it into a sub-20,000 series, with the OVA even selling on par with Angel Beats and K-ON. That team has a history of taking underdogs and turning them into hits out of no where.

[applejuice]

Originally Posted by Suzuku

I take the historical success of the studios over internet fan hype, which tends to shift very quickly. TBH I'm just weary of Steins;Gate because of Chaos;Head.

A lot of people in 2ch is saying that Steins;Gate will hold supremacy of the season. Original content is much more important when hyping the anime, when the studio's quality is unjustified.

Not showing any potential? 6,000-7,000 for DVD is pretty good, but indeed isn't on the same level as Bake. Of course, I'm going off the assumption that the BD sales will off set that, since it looks like Madoka will sale about the same amount of BDs in its first week as Bake vol 1 sold in its lifetime. About 62,000 BDs the first week coupled with around 7,000 DVDs would be 70,000 the first week. After that it only needs to add 10,000 more to surpass Bake, which isn't out of the realm of possibility since second week sales should add a good chunk of BDs.

Bakemonogatari's largest first week BD sales was about 51000, and preorder ranking cumulative point was extremely high, which Madoka Magica will never able to reach with current position (unless world goes mad). DVD sales was also about 20000, which is just madness. Unless world is going mad, Madoka Magica getting 62000 BDs is a bit of exaggeration in current stage.

Bake's average volume sales is above 80,000 currently, which is impossible enough for any series, including Madoka Magica. If Madoka Magica can even manage to sell BD over 50,000, that's enough legend anyway.

(also, as you said, what I meant was 'Madoka Magica's dvd is not showing any potential compared to bakemonogatari'.

I took the noitaminA jinx into account, which is why I'm not certain [C] will sale, but I just can't see the Toradora/Railgun staff not succeeding, since they wre in similar predicaments with both Toradora and Railgun. Toradora had absolutely no hype when it first started and the general consensus was that Index was a much better show, and by the end of its run it was selling nearly on par with Index, even though it was DVD only sales. Same with Railgun. No one thought Railgun would sale past 10,000 because Index S1 sales were already tittering on the 10,000 line at vol 8, but they took it and turned it into a sub-20,000 series, with the OVA even selling on par with Angel Beats and K-ON. That team has a history of taking underdogs and turning them into hits out of no where.

Problem is, there is another thing you need to take into account. That's from the fact that this spring season has way too much competition, as you see. One of the minor factor and catalysis for Bakemonogatari's success was 'Suzumiya Haruhi Endless eight failure'. Railgun's selling is also boosted a bit (like... really a-bit) as there was serious lack of competition at this season. This time is different. I really wonder if Ano Hana project will be be on the top of this flood of animations airing this season.

[Suzuku]

Originally Posted by applejuice

Bakemonogatari's largest first week BD sales was about 51000, and preorder ranking cumulative point was extremely high, which Madoka Magica will never able to reach with current position (unless world goes mad). DVD sales was also about 20000, which is just madness. Unless world is going mad, Madoka Magica getting 62000 BDs is a bit of exaggeration in current stage.

I'd like to know where you get Bake's accumulative points from, since Amazon Stalker doesn't have them (it only has the first vol and it's way out of date, only covering when the vol was first registered). At the rate Madoka is going it will hit around 17,000 points by the time it goes on sale, and if the last push that most anime get when they're about to go on sale pushes Madoka into ranking number 1 on Amazon then it might even cross 20,000, which insures sub 60,000 for the BDs. Here's the calculations from the 2ch BD/DVD thread.

Spoiler:

魔法少女まどか☆マギカ 1 【完全生産限定版】 [Blu-ray]
最高順位 ***,**2位(2011年03月01日)
最低順位 ***,*69位(2011年01月21日)
平均順位 ***,*11位
発売日 2011-03-30
最新累積ポイント 7556pt (注意 2010年夏アニメ以前のものは1巻以外登録がおかしいため不正確です)
最終予測累積ポイント 16698pt(残り日数24)

                    最終累積pt　    下限95%　  下限68%　　平均値　  上限68%　上限95%
魔法少女 まどかマギカ 1巻　10000pt　　　34858　　　36463　　　38073　　39682　　41288
魔法少女 まどかマギカ 1巻　11000pt　　　38158　　　39886　　　41619　　43351　　45080
魔法少女 まどかマギカ 1巻　12000pt　　　41457　　　43309　　　45165　　47021　　48872
魔法少女 まどかマギカ 1巻　13000pt　　　44757　　　46732　　　48711　　50690　　52664
魔法少女 まどかマギカ 1巻　14000pt　　　48057　　　50154　　　52257　　54359　　56456　今後4位でココ
魔法少女 まどかマギカ 1巻　15000pt　　　51357　　　53577　　　55803　　58028　　60248
魔法少女 まどかマギカ 1巻　16000pt　　　54657　　　57000　　　59348　　61697　　64040　今後3位でココ
魔法少女 まどかマギカ 1巻　17000pt　　　57957　　　60423　　　62894　　65366　　67832　←いまココ
魔法少女 まどかマギカ 1巻　18000pt　　　61256　　　63845　　　66440　　69035　　71624
魔法少女 まどかマギカ 1巻　19000pt　　　64556　　　67268　　　69986　　72704　　75416
魔法少女 まどかマギカ 1巻　20000pt　　　67856　　　70691　　　73532　　76373　　79208　今後2位でココ
※注意　BD初動のみ

Bake's average volume sales is above 80,000 currently, which is impossible enough for any series, including Madoka Magica. If Madoka Magica can even manage to sell BD over 50,000, that's enough legend anyway.

(also, as you said, what I meant was 'Madoka Magica's dvd is not showing any potential compared to bakemonogatari'.

IIRC it's actually 78,554, but yeah, damn close to 80,000. I'd still put my money on Madoka doing just as well if not better though.

Problem is, there is another thing you need to take into account. That's from the fact that this spring season has way too much competition, as you see. One of the minor factor and catalysis for Bakemonogatari's success was 'Suzumiya Haruhi Endless eight failure'. Railgun's selling is also boosted a bit (like... really a-bit) as there was serious lack of competition at this season. This time is different. I really wonder if Ano Hana project will be be on the top of this flood of animations airing this season.

Yeah, that's true, it's sort of the same thing this season with Madoka and IS. Since there are virtually no other shows collectors are willing to buy, everyone's money is going towards Madoka and IS this season. I still say Ano Hana will manage to stand out since the team is just really good at budget management (consistent art/animation) and coming up with interesting original content that makes use of the characters and settings in their stories, but we'll see.

[Kid Ryan]

Originally Posted by cohen

Great, another Zexal watcher

Yup I love Yu-Gi-Oh!

[applejuice]

^ Ummmm... it's only 23 days left until its release. I'm only assuming 10,000 minimum, 15,000 maximum currently.

[Suzuku]

Even though it's only 23 days left, it keeps adding 333-500 points a day. If it ends up breaking the number 1 rank before it goes on sale or on the day it goes on sale then it'll b adding 1000 points a day. At this pace, it's not impossible for it to break 17,000 or even 20,000.

[RRW]

Originally Posted by applejuice

Denpa Onna is more of dark horse. I never said it will do gigantic success like bake... u.u~

well it doesnt mean it will sell if it dark house?

[MisaoFan]

Compare the success of Hidan no Aria vs Steins:Gate. I choose the first because I like the character design very cute.

[TinyRedLeaf]

Originally Posted by Shirou Emiya

A new version of the Spring 2011 Anime Chart is out now:
http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/6...ring2011v3.jpg

Oh my, Drossel Juno Vierzehntes Heizregister Furstin von Flugel is getting a second season, dolphins and invisible ninja servant bots rejoice!

As for the rest of the season, other than Showa Monogatari and perhaps Moshidora, nothing else immediately catches my eye. A lot, I guess, will depend on word of mouth once the shows come around.

[gecd]

Originally Posted by MisaoFan

Compare the success of Hidan no Aria vs Steins:Gate. I choose the first because I like the character design very cute.

I choose the later because mamoru miyano's god level voice acting as okabe rintarou

[klare]

will watch
- Appleseed XIII (my most anticipated show)
- The world god only knows 2
- Ao no Exorcist (looks interesting)
- Highschool of the Dead
- Black Lagoon
- Gundam Unicorn

will try
- Steins Gate
- Electromagnetic Wave... (its Shaft)
- X-men
- Tiger & Bunny (its Sunrise with mecha)
- Ano hana
- Aria the Scarlet Ammo