[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[Arachanox]

Originally Posted by rogerpepitone

As for the first twilight in episode 5, those circles could have been made while Maria was still alive.

Could be, but what is more likely? Kill the cousins and then paint the circle when they certainly won't wake up, interfere, and ask questions, or paint the circle when they are still alive, possibly leading to complications?

Also, in EP1, the magic 'circle' appeared on Eva/Hideyoshi's door after their death. The circle on the shed likely was put there after the door was locked (and everyone inside was dead). The red numbers painted on the door in EP3 were painted after George was dead. In EP2 the painting on the chapel was put there after the people inside were dead. It seems like common practice.

[Marion]

Kanon being the man from 19 years ago makes no sense. He's only 16, so he shouldn't even know about this all. You can say he's lying about his age, but he clearly has a much younger appearance compared to Battler and George (younger face, shorter). Plus when Natsuhi got a call the second time he was in the dining room with everyone else (unless the call was a recording played). It makes more sense to me for it to be George since he was in the guest house when it happened. But Kanon overall is generally too suspicious to me. The very suspicious people, as Erika said, being a major culprit/villain would be very boring as a result. Of course everybody is suspicious in some way but there are some in more degrees than others.

Personally I rule out these people as the main culprit already. Accomplice may change, but general as a culprit:
Natsuhi (EP 5 in general)
Battler (detective in EP 1-4, main character, bad writing, etc)
Maria (too young, I doubt she can convince people older than her to kill)
Eva (EP 3 she's a giant red herring and EP 4 pretty much denies it, along with Tanabata Day)
Gohda (has no idea whats going on and isn't even trusted among the servants at all. plus after Gohda's Notes I just can't see him as a murderer )
Kumasawa (representing Virgilia in a sense I can't see her murdering either. It's implied the culprit already knows where the gold is and we see her actually trying to solve it so)
Genji (same as Kumasawa, but is still liable to change)
Kinzo (dead before the game start. He COULD be a mastermind having his plans carried out, but its unsure as of now)
Krauss (just too gullible in general. Same as Natsuhi, I just can't see him murdering for money)
Rosa (perhaps an accomplice, but she's generally very easy to get angry and tends to be someone who lives in the moment rather than carefully planning. She's also very suspicious as of EP 2, similar to how Natsuhi was suspicious in EP 1 and 5)

I want to put Shannon and Kanon up there as well, but I can't be sure yet. Shannon seems more of an accomplice than someone who can kill people to me (dressing up as Beatrice and giving the letters)

[Jan-Poo]

Why do you assume that the man from 19 years before is actually that baby? Sure it is a possibility but it's far from being a fact.
More than anything else, even if he is that baby he couldn't possibly remember what happened there. So either way you need to assume there is a person X which is not the baby himself that believes Natsuhi was the true culprit of that "unfortunate accident". That person is either the man from 19 years before himself, or the one that told the story to the man from 19 years before.

You have to consider this: the baby if still alive couldn't possibly know what happened. And therefore the real thing isn't really more probable than an impostor.

[rogerpepitone]

In episode 4, Maria said Kinzo gave her the envelope. He did not; he was dead. Nobody would mistake anyone else for Kinzo. Maria lied.

[Marion]

I don't assume that at all myself. That baby has to be dead - sorry but little children, especially babies, don't fall off 10 meters into giant rocks and live. The servant was also stated dead according to Natsuhi and was buried as well. And I agree with the baby not knowing of it. Children RARELY remember anything from before the age of 5, unless it's something very important (their mother, family members). Anyone they met in passing or didn't always see won't usually be kept in thought. I remember babysitting a 4 year old several times, who was the child of my mother's friend, and a year later after the last time I babysat her when I saw her at 5 or 6 she couldn't even recognize me. Only children that genetically have a good memory can usually remember much of their early life.

Originally Posted by rogerpepitone

In episode 4, Maria said Kinzo gave her the envelope. He did not; he was dead. Nobody would mistake anyone else for Kinzo. Maria lied.

I did notice that before, but why would she lie about that. Maybe she was asked by Beatrice to say it.

[k//eternal]

Again, the baby was clearly regarded by Kinzo as another Beatrice; I don't think it was even likely to be male. The whole thing is likely done by someone who knows roughly what happened, but doesn't have the details; this person is clearly using tricks in the vein of cold reading to scare Natsuhi (the most obvious example being the season card).

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Marion

Kanon being the man from 19 years ago makes no sense. He's only 16, so he shouldn't even know about this all. You can say he's lying about his age, but he clearly has a much younger appearance compared to Battler and George (younger face, shorter).

That doesn't mean much. And remember, he doesn't have to be the man from 19 years ago. He just has to know about it and choose to pose as that person. There are all sorts of reasons he might want to stick up for that person, or just stick it to Natsuhi. We know from ep1 that he hates her, which is odd, as her behavior never really seems to suggest she's that awful a mistress.

Plus when Natsuhi got a call the second time he was in the dining room with everyone else (unless the call was a recording played).

Time is screwy in ep5. And Natsuhi gets the call after midnight. If Kanon has an excuse to step out and make a call it's possible. It's also possible if everyone at the conference is lying and they have Kanon make the call fully aware of what's going on.

It makes more sense to me for it to be George since he was in the guest house when it happened.

It's possible, though George was also with people. Allegedly. George also has to stop calling at some point after he dies, but the last time the man calls is plenty early for that to be true.

But Kanon overall is generally too suspicious to me. The very suspicious people, as Erika said, being a major culprit/villain would be very boring as a result. Of course everybody is suspicious in some way but there are some in more degrees than others.

I agree, but there's got to be something going on here. You don't drop all these hints for nothing, or just to mislead people.

[momobunny]

How would a man born 19 years ago remember what happened 19 years ago anyway?

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Maho Momo

How would a man born 19 years ago remember what happened 19 years ago anyway?

Someone would tell him. That's why it largely doesn't matter if the baby lived or died. No matter what happened, a witness knew about things and told someone (whoever that is), and that person decided to use the idea against Natsuhi.

However, if it really were the baby, or someone who thought he was the baby...

[Arachanox]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Why do you assume that the man from 19 years before is actually that baby? Sure it is a possibility but it's far from being a fact.
More than anything else, even if he is that baby he couldn't possibly remember what happened there. So either way you need to assume there is a person X which is not the baby himself that believes Natsuhi was the true culprit of that "unfortunate accident". That person is either the man from 19 years before himself, or the one that told the story to the man from 19 years before.

There can be no Person X.

At 24:00, except for Krauss, Natsuhi, and Genji in the second floor corridor and all of the people in the dining hall, no humans existed inside the mansion.
At 24:00, only Erika, George, Jessica, Maria, Nanjo, Gohda, and Kumasawa existed outside the mansion.

edit: Qualification. Person X could exist if he was hiding in the dining hall at 24:00. That is the only exception.

[momobunny]

Originally Posted by Renall

Someone would tell him. That's why it largely doesn't matter if the baby lived or died. No matter what happened, a witness knew about things and told someone (whoever that is), and that person decided to use the idea against Natsuhi.

However, if it really were the baby, or someone who thought he was the baby...

If it was the baby, I see no reason for him to come back and threaten Natsuhi. He really shouldn't be too concerned seeing as he shouldn't remember and lived from it.

I'm guessing that it's somebody else as well. The options are kind of limited though.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Maho Momo

If it was the baby, I see no reason for him to come back and threaten Natsuhi. He really shouldn't be too concerned seeing as he shouldn't remember and lived from it.

I'm guessing that it's somebody else as well. The options are kind of limited though.

What I mean is, it's motive.

If the caller is the baby, a relative of the baby (orphaned brother of the baby or something), or someone raised to think he is the baby, the motive against Natsuhi could be simple revenge. Even if it's misguided.

If the caller isn't any of these and knows it, the motive and purpose behind tormenting Natsuhi in this fashion has some other purpose behind it. There's really no logical reason to go to this extreme just to upset her or kill her personally. So why do it?

[Arachanox]

Originally Posted by Renall

What I mean is, it's motive.

If the caller is the baby, a relative of the baby (orphaned brother of the baby or something), or someone raised to think he is the baby, the motive against Natsuhi could be simple revenge. Even if it's misguided.

If the caller isn't any of these and knows it, the motive and purpose behind tormenting Natsuhi in this fashion has some other purpose behind it. There's really no logical reason to go to this extreme just to upset her or kill her personally. So why do it?

The baby, a relative of the baby, and someone raised to think he is the baby are qualify as Person X, and Person X cannot exist during October 5. Therefore, even if they do exist and made the pre-1986 call, they are irrelevant as they have no influence on the events of October 5. There is probably someone who is impersonating the young man during the events of 1986, but there is no Person X.

[Tjfarmer]

If its George, maybe the final call would've been "Fire Shannon and kick her out of the house."

Because then Shannon could go live with George, she wouldn't be a servant, and nobody (Eva) would look down on him for it!

(somewhat kidding about this... somewhat)

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Arachanox

There can be no Person X.

At 24:00, except for Krauss, Natsuhi, and Genji in the second floor corridor and all of the people in the dining hall, no humans existed inside the mansion.
At 24:00, only Erika, George, Jessica, Maria, Nanjo, Gohda, and Kumasawa existed outside the mansion.

edit: Qualification. Person X could exist if he was hiding in the dining hall at 24:00. That is the only exception.

By "person X" I meant an unknown person who can be anyone who witness what happened on that day the baby fell from the cliff. This is something that happened in 1967 and has nothing to do with the gameboard.

Originally Posted by Arachanox

The baby, a relative of the baby, and someone raised to think he is the baby are qualify as Person X, and Person X cannot exist during October 5. Therefore, even if they do exist and made the pre-1986 call, they are irrelevant as they have no influence on the events of October 5. There is probably someone who is impersonating the young man during the events of 1986, but there is no Person X.

Don't forget the maid. She died as well and a relative of her could be harboring a deep grudge against Natsuhi if they came to know the truth. In that case they would play the part of the "baby" because that would certainly have a much shocking effect on her than telling her "I'm the random maid you killed".

[Arachanox]

The phones do not work, and thus this maid-relative would be threatening Natushi from on the island, and if this maid-relative is on the island, she is person X, and she cannot exist.

[Jan-Poo]

This person X doesn't necessarily need to be in the island he's simply the person who witnessed what Natsuhi did and told everything to the "man from 19 years before".

There is a high probability that this person is Kumasawa anyway.

[Arachanox]

Ok, so, Kumasawa tells the dreaded story of the baby and maid's death to Person Y. Person Y may be a Person X (unknown individual), or Person Y may be one of the 18 humans on the island (known individual). Person Y wants to get revenge on Natushi for Reason X, so Person Y begins to 'set up' the situation in a phone call prior to 1986. However, once the game of 1986 begins, Person Y can no longer be a Person X, as this person is on the island continuing to make calls to Natushi to frighten her into following the plan. The reason Person Y can no longer be a Person X is due to the red truth I have mentioned before.

Person Y may be two individuals. Pre-1986 Person Y may be a known or an unknown person. 1986 Person Y cannot be an unknown person due to the red.

Are we in agreement about this?

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Arachanox

The baby, a relative of the baby, and someone raised to think he is the baby are qualify as Person X, and Person X cannot exist during October 5. Therefore, even if they do exist and made the pre-1986 call, they are irrelevant as they have no influence on the events of October 5. There is probably someone who is impersonating the young man during the events of 1986, but there is no Person X.

Um, what? No. There need be no Person X. The caller can be on the island. The caller can be one of the other 16 people. Natsuhi takes all her calls alone. As someone noted, it's even theoretically possible (if not plausible) for Genji himself.

[Arachanox]

I said that. "There is probably someone who is impersonating the young man during the events of 1986."

edit: And because it's been my catchphrase all day, I will repeat: There is no Person X during the events of 1986.