Russia invasion of Ukraine

[Yu Ominae]

https://www.newsweek.com/marina-yank...-death-1781713

Marina Yankina of Russian MOD was found dead by a bystander who passed by.

Said she fell down from a window.

[Roger Rambo]

So we talking about

-The Kremlin trying to deal with corruption via assassination
-Corrupt government officials bumping off their compatriots to cover their tracks

Lotsa fun and games going on in the Mafia State.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Roger Rambo

So we talking about

-The Kremlin trying to deal with corruption via assassination
-Corrupt government officials bumping off their compatriots to cover their tracks

-Ukranian operatives imitating russian modus operandi making the kremlin believe that it was an inside job all along, nothing to see here, move along, move along.

[Yu Ominae]

Originally Posted by Roger Rambo

So we talking about

-The Kremlin trying to deal with corruption via assassination
-Corrupt government officials bumping off their compatriots to cover their tracks

Lotsa fun and games going on in the Mafia State.

There's also toilet looting.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...ort-sanctions/

Apparently, EU countries are banning anyone based in the EU from selling toilets to Russia.

[The Green One]

Man those Russian balconies sure need higher railings huh? Such "accident" prone people. My word.

[mangamuscle]

We are near the one year anniversary of the three day special military operation, it is a good moment to see what putin has going for and against him.

For:

- Support for Ukraine among citizens in the west is waning, which is to be expected, wars are expensive and many would prefer to see more money spent in social and other goverment programs. Expect russian propaganda in social media to exploit this trend.
- russia's air force has not been depleted as their ground forces, it still to be seen if they will enter the fray in year two.

Against:

- The sanctions were not expected to hit right away, Iran is a good example. But as times goes by the russian economy will gradually become weaker and weaker thanks to dais sanctions.
- Soldiers KIA cannot be recovered only with the draft, russia has lost a high percentage of their professional soldiers and sending civilians to the frontline as cannon fodder is not a real fix.
- russia is low in ammunition and it seems every couple of days military related infrastructure caught fire and/or explodes. If china does not send them ammunition from their own stockpiles then sooner rather than later they will lose by default.
- maybe it is unrelated, but I seem to remember that the "honeymoon" period after the successful invasion of Iraq was one year, I expect citizens of the russian federation start to get violent against their government soon™

[Key Board]

Ukraine has to win or has to achieve what they consider an end goal before the 2024 US elections
because everything after that is one huge question mark

//

[Ithekro]

That's nearly two more years before whomever wins that takes office in January 2025.

[Guardian Enzo]

Originally Posted by Key Board

Ukraine has to win or has to achieve what they consider an end goal before the 2024 US elections
because everything after that is one huge question mark

//

Assuming Biden's health holds up (and at his age that's no given) he's winning in 2024. And by more than he did in 2020. He's been systematically underestimated from the start of his 2020 campaign and the Republican brand is increasingly toxic in most of the country, especially the suburbs.

[mangamuscle]

Wouldn't it be hilarious if the real offensive putin has been hinting at for months is in fact the invasion of Belarus? I mean, putin needs a win at any cost and treacherous bastard is his middle name. Because time has run out, the latest offensive has already stalled and "mud season" will be in full swing sooner rather than later and after that come the leopards and company.

[Guardian Enzo]

Does he even really need to invade when Lukashenko is already in his hip pocket?

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo

Assuming Biden's health holds up (and at his age that's no given) he's winning in 2024. And by more than he did in 2020. He's been systematically underestimated from the start of his 2020 campaign and the Republican brand is increasingly toxic in most of the country, especially the suburbs.

I have seen in social networks, Trump and his sycophants are trying to cash in all the cowards who are crying about potential World War III and keep telling us that Zelensky and Biden are madmen hellbent on the destruction of civilization. All for "a small country that matters little in the biggest scheme of things", I quote.

A new Munich Peace deal with the entire "Is it worth dying for the Czechs?" energy in a nutshell.

[Guardian Enzo]

Originally Posted by Sheba

I have seen in social networks, Trump and his sycophants are trying to cash in all the cowards who are crying about potential World War III and keep telling us that Zelensky and Biden are madmen hellbent on the destruction of civilization. All for "a small country that matters little in the biggest scheme of things", I quote.

A new Munich Peace deal with the entire "Is it worth dying for the Czechs?" energy in a nutshell.

That's a fringe position in the U.S., and those who hold it were never going to vote for Biden anyway.

[Ithekro]

Many of them are "Team America" fans and will side with Ukraine if you point out that Russia is being an "asshole".

[ramlaen]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-con...ussia-8e353933

The Biden administration is considering releasing intelligence it believes shows that China is weighing whether to supply weapons to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, U.S. officials said.

[mangamuscle]

China is screwed either way. If they decide to send ammunition, russia rail lines will be sabotaged in multiple locations between china and ukraine and they risk their cargo ships receiving an ukranian missile if they intend to send them directly to Crimea. The best they can hope is sending equipment thru airplanes and even those aren't risk free.

I expect xi to attempt to convince the west of an east/west ukraine solution to the conflict; we know how that played out in vietnam.

[Yu Ominae]

Yonhap article on a rising ROK volunteer fighting in Ukraine who’s an ex-commando with Special Warfare Command and the NIS.

https://m.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20230221004900108

Someone translated some parts of the article

Kim, who served in the Special Warfare Command and the National Intelligence Service for nearly nine years, entered Ukraine at the end of October after preparing since April last year. because he thought the war would not end easily and needed to pay back the help South Korea received in the past.
"I had experience of participating in irregular warfare abroad before. My great-grandfather campaigned for independence under Japanese colonial rule, and my grandfather was wounded in the Korean War. There is now the Republic of Korea because of the support of countries around the world at that time. If we are indifferent to this war, which country will help us in the event of a second Korean War later? If I turned a blind eye to this terrible war, I wouldn't be able to live the rest of my life proudly."

[Roger Rambo]

I'm struggling to figure how the Chinese government could work out there being more pros than cons to outfitting Russia with significant amounts of weaponry. Using Russia as a threat to keep the USA from pivoting their attention to the Pacific made sense when Russia didn't need to be propped up to do that, and when using them to that effect didn't involve Europe becoming antagonized to China.

China itself doesn't really benefit directly in any way whether or not Russia can hold onto the territory in Ukraine it annexed, but has a lot to lose if them supporting Russia to brazenly and openly cause the EU nations to close ranks with the United States on China. This could manifest in a lot of ways, such as EU countries being more willing to support Taiwan, to Europe becoming less receptive to China's Belt and Road initiative if it's viewed as potential mechanism for the military ordinance of the PLA ending up on Europes doorstep.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Roger Rambo

... to Europe becoming less receptive to China's Belt and Road initiative if it's viewed as potential mechanism for the military ordinance of the PLA ending up on Europes doorstep.

Forget hard power, it would be soft power akin to the nordstream pipeline, I don't think the EU would like to make the same mistake twice.

Forget what benefits or not china and start thinking what winnie the xi wants. Because, atm invading Taiwan represents a net loss but I see no signs of him backing down on said idea.

[Yu Ominae]

Some resistance movement stuff:

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/atesh-resi...rimea-railway/

Atesh fighters blew up rails in Crimea’s Poshtovo near Simferopol.

____

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...attalion_from/

Sheikh Mansur Battalion released a video promoting their operations in English from Telegram.