[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni - Ep. 4 Alliance of the golden witch

[hodil]

@LyricalAura

Those two theories sure are interesting.

Spoiler for Letters:

The mail was sent to Ange.

Diary-Beatrice knew Ange wont come to Rokkenjima.

The mail was also sent to people whom relatives were related to the incident. (Kumasawa, Nanjo etc.)

This means that, Diary-Beatrice was sending the money to people who did not go to Rokkenjima. She was sending money to people who didnt die.

In this sense, it makes it seem that Diary-Beatrice clearly knew what would happen on Rokkenjima from Oct 4th to 5th.

[Marion]

Originally Posted by hodil

@LyricalAura

Those two theories sure are interesting.

Spoiler for Letters:

The mail was sent to Ange.

Diary-Beatrice knew Ange wont come to Rokkenjima.

The mail was also sent to people whom relatives were related to the incident. (Kumasawa, Nanjo etc.)

This means that, Diary-Beatrice was sending the money to people who did not go to Rokkenjima. She was sending money to people who didnt die.

In this sense, it makes it seem that Diary-Beatrice clearly knew what would happen on Rokkenjima from Oct 4th to 5th.

Spoiler for Response:

Yeah, but here's the thing: Ange says she recalled getting a letter addressed to Rudolf as well when she was younger. But Rudolf is dead.

In the cases of Kumasawa and Nanjo's sons they had letters addressed from their mother/father as well. But their sons aren't part of the Ushiromiya family technically while Ange is. Technically Ange and Eva are the only survivors because they are the only ones who were actually suppose to be on Rokkenjima. Kumasawa and Nanjo's son weren't suppose to be there, but Ange WAS.

Does this mean Diary-Beatrice anticipated Ange's absence if she was able to send an advance note addressed to Rudolf?

[Mikachiru]

Originally Posted by Marion

Spoiler for Response:

Yeah, but here's the thing: Ange says she recalled getting a letter addressed to Rudolf as well when she was younger. But Rudolf is dead.

In the cases of Kumasawa and Nanjo's sons they had letters addressed from their mother/father as well. But their sons aren't part of the Ushiromiya family technically while Ange is. Technically Ange and Eva are the only survivors because they are the only ones who were actually suppose to be on Rokkenjima. Kumasawa and Nanjo's son weren't suppose to be there, but Ange WAS.

Does this mean Diary-Beatrice anticipated Ange's absence if she was able to send an advance note addressed to Rudolf?

Spoiler for Response to your response:

Maybe it was meant for Battler if Ange was on Rokkenjima. Then Battler would get the money, right?

[rogerpepitone]

Spoiler for Response to response to letters:

The letters were postmarked Oct. 3, the same day that Ange got sick. The sender could have learned she was ill before sending them.

[Christen]

Originally Posted by Avisch

How is the contradiction from Episode 3 justified exactly?

I mean we get: "There are 18 people on this Rokkenjima"

But now in episode 4 we get: "There are no more than 17 people on Rokkenjima"

Am I missing something?

The red text wasn't like that. It was "There are no more than 18 people on Rokkenjima". Thus, it doesn't contradict the red text for episode 4.

[Marion]

Originally Posted by rogerpepitone

Spoiler for Response to response to letters:

The letters were postmarked Oct. 3, the same day that Ange got sick. The sender could have learned she was ill before sending them.

According to Bern at the start of EP 4 Ange got sick on exactly October 3rd. That means the sender would have to be aware of exactly how sick Ange was in order to predict that she might not be able to go to the island.

Only people that this is possible of:

Rudolf, Kyrie and Battler (her family obviously)
Eva and Hideyoshi (both mentioned in EP 1 that Ange was sick. They can easily be eliminated though if Kyrie or Rudolf told them about Ange at the airport and not in advance)

The first three are much more probable though.

[rogerpepitone]

Wouldn't Kyrie & Rudolf have called the island to let everyone there know that there'll be one less guest?

Also, the letters were postmarked from an island near Rokkenjima, so the sender's probably a regular resident of the island. (I also think that the sender (probably Signet Beatrice) is not involved with the murders.)

[Marion]

Originally Posted by rogerpepitone

Wouldn't Kyrie & Rudolf have called the island to let everyone there know that there'll be one less guest?

Also, the letters were postmarked from an island near Rokkenjima, so the sender's probably a regular resident of the island. (I also think that the sender (probably Signet Beatrice) is not involved with the murders.)

We can't really prove that, since it's never mentioned whether or not they called in advanced.

The sender would also need to be aware that Kumasawa and Nanjo had sons to send letters to. I also remembered that Kumasawa's son mentioned he had siblings as well, so they would need to get letters too probably.

[Nih]

After thinking about the theories posted here (and pestering SillyHat to help me put things together ), here are my general thoughts on the 4 episodes.

Spoiler for long theory:

While I cannot explain much in the way of the closed rooms, and the order of killings plus some red text go against my theory at first glance, if we try thinking outside the box for a little, then some interesting possibilities emerge.

What if: Kyrie and Rosa are working together and are the "main" killers in each episode?

In the first game, Kyrie and Rosa are among the victims with completely smashed
faces. We know that no body double tricks exist in this episode, however their deaths are never outright confirmed. (I do not remember whether Nanjo said anything during the first twilight, but it's not unimaginable at this point for him to be an accomplice). If the two faked their deaths and had a third person helping them, that person could have let them out of the gardening shed afterwards.

It is also suspicious to note Rosa's insistance on finding out who gave Maria an umbrella (more on this in a bit).

In the second game, Rosa and Kyrie were seen talking together in the airport. If memory serves, Rosa mentioned buying tea for the conference. Could they be planning to poison the siblings?

When Rosa and Maria met Beatrice in the garden, Kyrie stayed with the other adults in the mansion. Since it's highly unlikely Maria would mistake her own mother for Beatrice and according to the proposed solution to the chapel the key had to be genuine, there had to be a third person involved. Possible identities for this Beatrice include: Shannon, Kumasawa, Jessica, 17th person X.

Counter argument: Shannon lacks motive to participate in the killings of George's parents and later herself along with him.
Kumasawa is too old to pass for Beatrice. Maria may be naive, but I doubt she's an idiot. She had to know this Beatrice for a long time and if we look at the time when Kumasawa, Genji and Nanjo died in the first game, Maria wasn't acting like Kumasawa was in fact this Beatrice.
While it's possible that Jessica took on a role of Beatrice at some point, it seems again unlikely she was involved in a plot of murdering her entire family.

There's a very high probability that Beatrice from the garden knows about Kinzo's death, Kuwadorian, whether Kinzo's gold is real (more on that later too), etc
If Rosa is involved and this Beatrice is a 17th person X, Rosa had to know them just like she had to know the contents of both letters (in this case, she simply pretended to be impressed with the magic trick Beatrice displayed to convince Maria).
However, if this is indeed a 17th person X, it is just as likely that Rosa was not involved and did not know them (in this case, she simply dismissed the magic trick because she was focused on figuring out who this person was).

Suspicious point: why does Rosa "try" to open the letter in front of Maria who seemed already convinced that she met Beatrice? Was it an act or was she really curious about the contents? If it's an act, seems a little too much like we're the ones who are being persuaded in this scene (aka Meta-Battler).

Possible reason for passing the key to the chapel through Maria: to create an illusion of an extra person on the island, aka the witch. Along with Maria, both Kyrie and Rosa claimed to see Beatrice in this episode. Noone will believe a witch is on the island, however if 3 people claim something similar (one of whom is among the 4 siblings and another is a credible adult), then it becomes at least believable that an unknown common enemy is present. This shifts suspicion from the actual culprits.

For the chapel, Kyrie and Rosa kill the other siblings (possibly with poison) and arrange the scene. It is questionable whether anyone actually aknowledged Beatrice that night, but a third accomplice could be present.

It should be noted here that the red text only confirms that Rosa unsealed the envelope, it never states who actually closed the chapel and resealed the envelope afterwards. Therefore, on the grounds of lack of information, there is still a chance that Rosa is being framed/used for the murders somehow which can equally explain her lying about being present in the chapel that night (if she was there anyway :P).

The authenticity of the three gold bars should also be questioned (aka is it actually gold and not something fake made to look like it?) The golden bar from the first game also comes to mind, however it is irrelevant here since there's nothing to guarantee its presence/relation to these three. If the culprits left 3 ingots in the chapel to be discovered, it was probably to further solidify the illusion of the witch.

About Kyrie's corpse: the body double tricks have only been ruled out for the first game. However, it's a rather farfetched possibility nonetheless. Who could be mistaken for Kyrie anyway? Kasumi?

Another thing to note: at the end of the game, Rosa steals one of the gold ingots. This further supports her possible motive for involvement: urgent need for money. However, was the gold real or not? And did Rosa know?

In the third game, all of the adults stayed up talking through the night while the servants were killed. This further suggests the existance of the third culprit and/or helps prove Rosa's and Kyrie's innocence. (worthy of note: Kyrie and Rosa go to the guesthouse after the first twilight, did they have some sort of hidden reason for it?)

There's a good probability that Rosa and Kyrie already know about the existence of Kuwadorian, whether there's any gold stored there and whether it is real or fake. Kyrie's skills at analyzing the epitaph could be an indicator of this. Just as Rosa's "hint" to Eva and the fact that she later found Eva in that room. This is of course pure speculation. It is also suspicious that Rosa suggests that no murders occured during the first twilight, this could be an attempt to reinforce the belief that Kinzo is still alive. Eva of course, did not know whether the gold was fake. It is also possible that something else was in that room that the two simply referred to as gold afterwards, but that's a bit stretching it, I guess.

Personally, I think that gold was fake and could even be something set up by the culprits (you never know :P).

For the second twilight, one possible reason Rosa easily agreed to go with Maria to the garden could be because she herself was involved in the murders and did not believe she was threatened. Things to note: Rosa spotted golden butterflies
in that garden, which means that scene cannot be taken for granted. We saw two Eva's at that point. Was it simple time manipulation on Ryuukushi's part or was one of those Evas fake? If so, which one?

Something interesting to note is that according to Ange's future, two accounts were written about the events that took place on the island of that day. What if the whole third game is just one of those two interpretations? Better yet, did Ange read them? If so, could we simply be seeing the events through her eyes? If you look at it that way, even Eva killing Battler could be a lie, but I wouldn't go that far.

From red text a question arises: if Rosa, Kyrie and Eva had alibies during the first twilight, who, aside from Eva, could kill Rosa and Kyrie? Unless it's something crazy like Kyrie is dead at the start of every game and it's Kasumi all along

In the fourth game Kyrie is the one who suggests that Kinzo might be already dead. Damn, she's smart! Afterwards, Rosa says that Maria met Kinzo. Kyrie then switches tune and suggests that Kinzo was testing them all along. Seems like another attempt on their part to support the illusion of Kinzo's well being and the presence of Beatrice. Finally, Kyrie makes that phone call to Battler. Could there really be a body double? How I wish I knew

Finally, as has been discussed, I believe Ange's absence from the conference in each game is not a mere coincidence. There's also a potentially simple reason for why Battler survives until the end in each game, but I won't go into that here because SillyHat might use it in the next episode.

[Christen]

A theory which still has a lot of holes in it.

Spoiler for culprit theory:

The Kanon we know is not the real Kanon but perhaps a look alike/twin/wearing disguise. In this case, the culprit exists among the 17 or less, free to do whatever he needs to do.

1. Kanon is dead before the start of the game. Perhaps just been killed a short time ago.
2. This Kanon holds a close relationship with Shannon. Perhaps another servant from the Fukuin house. Shannon might have other "little brothers" other than the real Kanon.
3. Whenever Kanon's corpse shows up, it is the corpse of the real Kanon.

Now we deal with several red text addressing this theory.

- Kanon was killed in this room (Ep.2 - referring to Jessica's room)
It is not stated what time he was killed. He could have been killed before October 4.

- 6 people: Kinzo, Genji, Shannon, Kanon, Gohda, and Kumasawa are dead! (Ep. 3)
Again, no mention of time. Kanon has not been killed at the same time as the other 5 excluding Kinzo.

- Among the five people in Kyrie's group, he was the first to die.
Kyrie's group of what? It was never specifically mentioned who the member of this group were. We are led to believe that this group is the escaping people. Kyrie has a group of 5 people which has their own agenda in all games.

- In short, he was the 9th victim.
9th victim among what? Again we can think of other angles if Beato is tricking us with the red. Kanon was the 9th victim of a series of murders committed outside October 4 and 5, 1986 in Rokkenjima.

- In short, no kind of human or dead person on the island could have killed Kanon!
The culprit in the island might not necessarily be the one who killed Kanon. In this case, the one who killed the real Kanon is not in the island right now.

- They definitely would not mistake any different person for Kanon! (referring to Ep.2 in the kitchen)
The culprit brought Kanon's corpse. This way, they didn't mistake a different person for the real Kanon. This statement also only applies during the time in the kitchen.

- The only one who can claim Kanon's name is the person himself!
This is in a different context with taking someone's name. The culprit might have disguised himself as Kanon, while not taking his name.

[Squirrellord]

This is off topic to anything, but going through episode 1, I found something rather humorous. Krauss is trying to get Kinzo to leave the study, and Nanjo says he's being fairly cruel to his father. Krauss responds with:
;「親父はすでに死んでいる。@……ここにいるのは、親父だったものの幻さ。@いずれにせよ、本人にここを 出る意思がない以上、どうにもならんね。」\
`"My father is already dead.`@` ......The one that's in there is an phantom of what was my father.`@` At any rate, as long as he has no intention of leaving this place, we can't do anything."`\

[Marion]

Spoiler for Response to nih's theory:

Nanjo went to the shed and told everyone that rigor mortis had set in. We don't know how many bodies he checked, but if he checked all of them then there's a good chance that he may be an accomplice, going by your theory.

The umbrella thing goes like this: Rosa wants to thank the person that gave Maria the umbrella, but Maria keeps saying the witch Beatrice gave it to her.

As far as the chapel scene goes it's pretty brutal. Rosa ends up throwing up at the sight of the display. I don't think someone could actually fake something like that in advance.

Rosa IS aware of the Kuwadorian, because she went there herself when meeting 1967 Beatrice. She just wasn't aware of it's location.

I doubt Kasumi can pull of being Kyrie. Both of them have very different personalities and I'm sure someone who knows Kyrie well enough, like Battler or Rudolf, would be able to spot something wrong. Plus that means we would have to question the Kasumi of 1998, which I don't think is reasonable at this point.

And for the 'Kinzo is dead' thing - Kyrie states that all of them probably had suspicions that Kinzo was already dead. She was just voicing them in light of their situation to try and force Krauss to give them money.

[Nih]

Spoiler for response to Marion:

All of your points are valid, Marion, but all of them can easily go both ways. If Rosa is innocent, then there's nothing suspicious in her insistance regarding the umbrella. But if she isn't, then she could be trying to bring everyone's attention to this detail in order to persuade them of Beatrice's presence.

About her reaction in the chapel, again if she was innocent, then its only natural, but even if she isn't, it's quite possible that sight could provoke vomiting. Who knows if she even saw the finished scene before then?

Rosa being aware of the Kuwadorian does not change much. To begin with, she did not get to it through the tunnel. But whether she knows or not, does not prove or disprove her knowledge of the epitaph and the method with which she found Eva. (it could be because she solved the riddle, or it could be because she needed to go there for some other reason).

I also think it rather silly that Kasumi would be able to pass for Kyrie like this, but then again, we don't know much about Kasumi to begin with, she is surely cunning enough and who knows what she was like 12 years ago? I'm most likely wrong on this, just keeping the possibilities open since I don't know how else to try to explain it :P

And for the suggestion of Kinzo's death, again, this goes both ways easily. All depending on what Kyrie knows.

[k//eternal]

Originally Posted by Squirrellord

This is off topic to anything, but going through episode 1, I found something rather humorous. Krauss is trying to get Kinzo to leave the study, and Nanjo says he's being fairly cruel to his father. Krauss responds with:
;「親父はすでに死んでいる。@……ここにいるのは、親父だったものの幻さ。@いずれにせよ、本人にここを 出る意思がない以上、どうにもならんね。」\
`"My father is already dead.`@` ......The one that's in there is an phantom of what was my father.`@` At any rate, as long as he has no intention of leaving this place, we can't do anything."`\

Yeah, there were a lot of awesome things in EP1 that you don't see until you play the later games, haha. I wouldn't be surprised if there are references even to the very last EP, that we still can't see.

The question is whether this instance is really just funny or if Krauss actually knows something.

[Jan-Poo]

true true, even Gaap was already mentioned there.

About Ange. I think it's most probable that everyone have been noticed beforehand of Ange's sickness. For once no one is surprised to know of her absence, no one asks where she is, and I'm pretty sure Gohda would care, at the very least for the fact he needs to know how many people he needs to prepare dinner for.

there is also the airport scene in Ep1 when Eva asks Kyrie:

"Ah, but more importantly, how's your little Ange-chan?
I heard she was vomiting?"

From the sound of it, seems like Eva have been noticed of Ange's situation by someone else. If it was Kyrie herself it is strange that she didn't ask at the same time how was Ange, and in that case there wouldn't be any need to ask it again.

The fact that Beatrice knew that Ange wouldn't attend the family conference is very interesting indeed. I fear it isn't specifically said who was placed as the sender of that letter Ange received, but I think it must be "Ange Ushiromiya", else she would have mentioned it.

[hodil]

OMG...

No it cant be...
Well, recently i have been reading a book: Elements of Murder - History of Poison.

Apparently, most of the chemicals i read would induce a reaction within the body - Vomit. The body would attempt to purge the poison that it has consumed.

Could it be... that Ange was poisoned by X? And the letters were sent by X?

But then again... who didnt want Ange to go...

Wow... the guesses are getting wilder.

[Ninjacrat]

Rudolf didn't want Ange to go, because of his magical foreknowledge.

[Marion]

Originally Posted by Ninjacrat

Rudolf didn't want Ange to go, because of his magical foreknowledge.

Take your anti-mystery mumbo jumbo and get out

|D~ So Rudolf is psychic?

[momobunny]

He DID say that he was going to die in EP1... maybe he DID know something and made a way for Ange not to go?

[Ninjacrat]

Originally Posted by Maho Momo

He DID say that he was going to die in EP1... maybe he DID know something and made a way for Ange not to go?

He's like that character from Higurashi -- trapped in an endless loop, with only his vast wealth, international prestige and army of beautiful mistresses for comfort.