Russia invasion of Ukraine

[TheForsaken]

Sound more like Western propaganda making up random bullshit to me.

[Key Board]

I’m not saying this is true, but what is there for the west to gain, if this is propaganda

The opinion on Russia can’t get any worse

//

[Infinite Zenith]

Originally Posted by AnimeFan188

What might have been:

Vladimir Putin Wanted To ‘Attack’ Japan, Before He Chose To Invade Ukraine – Claims Alleged FSB Whistleblower

Is there any credibility behind these sources? Common sense suggests that there isn't any strategic value for Russia to mount an invasion of Japan, and I'm more curious to hear your opinions about these pieces.

[ganbaru]

Originally Posted by Infinite Zenith

Is there any credibility behind these sources? Common sense suggests that there isn't any strategic value for Russia to mount an invasion of Japan, and I'm more curious to hear your opinions about these pieces.

Another likely possibility, the plan about ivading Japan was one of thoses hypothethical plans than the militarydo come up sometime, like the one the US have for a hypothethical zombie invasion or for invading Canada.

[Infinite Zenith]

If that's the case, what would make it so outrageous that the Russians would have a war game scenario about Japan?

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Infinite Zenith

Is there any credibility behind these sources? Common sense suggests that there isn't any strategic value for Russia to mount an invasion of Japan, and I'm more curious to hear your opinions about these pieces.

Beg your pardon? Flipping japan into the kremlin sphere of influence would be a game changer, not only japan has the technological know how that russia sorely lacks, but kicking the USA fleet out of japan would mean putin wet dreams of projecting military power in the pacific would not be a dream anymore.

As for credibility, I am not part of the intelligence community to tell, all I can say is that putin is the kind of (little) man to entertain the thought more than once.

[Infinite Zenith]

The cost of attempting any invasion on Japan would prompt a swift response, and Russia's losses would be completely unacceptable to them relative to any perceived gains. Japan's economy isn't outputting microprocessors quite like, say, Taiwan, either, so the incentive for invading Japan for their technology isn't present. Further to this, the US fleet is kept busy by the South China sea. There simply isn't a reason to worry about the far eastern edge of things. If there is a paper, report or briefing outlining otherwise, I'll gladly read it.

Originally Posted by mangamuscle

As for credibility, I am not part of the intelligence community to tell, all I can say is that putin is the kind of (little) man to entertain the thought more than once.

Ad hominem isn't a valid argument, nor is arguing based on emotion alone. Come back with some quotes and figures, and we can resume.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Infinite Zenith

The cost of attempting any invasion on Japan would prompt a swift response, and Russia's losses would be completely unacceptable to them relative to any perceived gains.

The very same thing can be said about the invasion of Ukraine and putin went forward none the less. The thing is that attacking Ukraine required less effort, since moving troops, artillery, tanks, etc. to the far east represented a more formidable task (which btw might have made china feel threatened).

Ad hominem isn't a valid argument, nor is arguing based on emotion alone. Come back with some quotes and figures, and we can resume.

You might call it whatever you like (I call it being a good judge of character), see you here after putin dies when all pertinent documents will no doubt be made public and we will see how has the last laugh, circular arguments are not in vogue in case you haven't realized.

[Infinite Zenith]

Whether or not you're a "good judge of character" is neither here nor there. I can wait for the documents to be released, but it's not about who has the last laugh. Relentlessly resorting to juvenile name-calling won't persuade others to change their minds: I'm not going to agree with you on the basis of how creative your name-calling is, but rather, how persuasive the facts you bring to the table are.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Infinite Zenith

won't persuade others to change their minds

That is so out of fashion, I don't write on the internet to change anyone's opinion, that is a waste of my time. I write on the internet for my own personal entertainment, nothing more, nothing less.

[GDB]

Originally Posted by Infinite Zenith

Come back with some quotes and figures, and we can resume.

You're asking for the kinds of things that, if one had and posted, would result in a swift arrest and not being heard from again for years, if ever. Though if you just want a sort of smoking gun, just look at how Russia keeps poking at the Kuril Islands issue.

[Infinite Zenith]

I’m basically saying, if mangamuscle wants me to see things his way, he'll have to do a lot better than just doing the ol' name calling routine, as he as for the past few years. That sort of commentary doesn’t add value and is tiresome to see, especially when others provide something of more substance. Of course, I could be mistaken: what is gained by calling politicians names? On the other hand, you provide something to look at. That adds value.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Infinite Zenith

what is gained by calling politicians names?

I will call names to any autocrat, whether said person is in power or alive makes no difference to me, they are the enemy of the people and I have no sympathy for those that drink their koolaid. It is the essence of free speech and if it irritates someone, it most likely because there is some truth to the name calling.

[Guardian Enzo]

The only way I can imagine this playing out is an increasingly deranged P*tin proposing it and being dissuaded by the people who’d actually have to execute it. In practical terms invading Japan makes absolutely no sense for Russia on any level.

[Ithekro]

Power projection via a Japanese port would be a boon for Russia as they would have a place to station the Pacific Fleet that is not only ice free all year, but also with a clearer route out, rather than having to sail past enemy held islands.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo

The only way I can imagine this playing out is an increasingly deranged P*tin proposing it and being dissuaded by the people who’d actually have to execute it. In practical terms invading Japan makes absolutely no sense for Russia on any level.

Invading Ukraine makes no sense:

-Putin already had Crimea for his military navy and Ukraine had not the resolve nor the military equipment to take it back.
-NATO was a joke, military budgets were on a death spiral and I would not rule out some countries in western europe leaving the alliance. Saying the opposite was putin trying to make a mountain out of a molehill, like the kid that makes excuses to get his way.
-Ukraine only has natural resources to plunder, but russia already has plenty of them.
-Russia is already suffering from population deflation (that has its roots in WWII), most of those (about 90k right now by some estimates) russians dying in Ukraine soil will not have offspring, making the crisis deeper. Heck, losing an arm or a leg will also probably mean they wont get married any time soon.
-Using most of they artillery inventory leaves them weak in any future conflicts, expect them to be kicked out of Georgia, Moldova and even Chechnya at the most unexpected moment. Dont be surprised if Assad looks to strengthen ties with other arab nations to get military support.
-Winter is coming and just like germany in WWII, the orc army is not ready, there are recruits already dying from hypothermia and they have not even been deployed to Ukraine. Expect russian army to be kanchoed hard, repeatedly, this holiday season.
-Russian borders are porous and most of the country is scarcely populated, which helps explains all the mysterious fires and explosions all over the country. There is also the simply fact that drafting into the army the people that gives maintenance to said facilities is a stupid idea.

If anyone can think of one good reason or positive outcome for russia out of this "special military operation" feel free to share it with the rest of us.

[Guardian Enzo]

Invading Ukraine and Japan are not polar options. Just because one makes no sense doesn’t man the other has to. They can both be dumb ideas.

That said, P*tin invading Ukraine makes perfect sense if you view it through the historical lens of despotic rulers. This is how they fire up nationalist sentiment. If his pretext is a reformation of the old Soviet Union (which it basically is, even if he won’t say it openly) then invading Ukraine is sort of logical. There’s also the matter of ethnic Russians in Ukraine, which he can always fall back on to justify his aggression.

Japan is a different matter. Logistically more difficult, as an island. No ethnic connections (apart from the Ainu, where it’s only a matter of which empire abused them more). And Japan is sufficiently important to the global economy that by attacking them, P*tin instigates full-blown war with the world, while he believed (correctly as it turns out) that he could get away with invading Ukraine.

It’s a bad idea vs. an utterly preposterous one. If he ever seriously considered invading Japan (which I frankly doubt) his circle shot it down pretty damn fast.

[Jaden]

When it comes to good reasons for invading Ukraine, you have to adopt the Russian mindset and persecution complex, or there aren't any. But basically, to the Russians, Ukraine falling to the western sphere means massive losses in influence and investments, the loss of Sevastopol, eventual loss of all fuel exports to Europe, half of their nuclear umbrella getting somehow disabled by secret NATO superweapons, and Moscow being under siege after a 2 day march.

Most outside observers thought that Ukraine (at least the government and regular army) would fold in a week and Russia would mostly get away with the invasion, just like before. Turns out that was bullshit, and they lost a huge gamble.

It's not that hard to see the motives and prospects...for attacking Japan, not so much

[Yu Ominae]

I've spotted "gruesome" photos of civilian living in the "occupied" territories who were lynched and left to die.

Had signs on their necks saying that they confess to being collaborators with Kyiv.

[mangamuscle]

There seems to be this fallacious idea that autocrats act upon pre-established narratives. The simple truth is that they act upon their whims and that is why they are so dangerous. They don't act into due to logical thinking, it is purely emotional. Autocrats have always had people to peddle the narrative that better suits his plans. We would have known a month in advance in putin intended to invade Japan if russian mass media started to peddle japan WWII atrocities nonstop. Heck, if "special military operation" in Ukraine really had been wrapped up in less than a month time, putin (like the spoiled brat he is) would probably have thought no one could stop him if he invaded another country and would have weighed his options. Luckily the russian army now does not have the might to entertain the idea of any big military operations in the foreseeable future.