Have any of you noticed a decrease in forum activity?

[Artful Dodger]

I've been around here just reading far before join date, and compared to the size of the site, I participate in a relatively small sub-set of forums. Still, I've noticed a significant decrease in created threads, responses and overall chatter. Is this just me (I hope so, as this can be a very enjoyable place to read and share)?

If its not just me, I'd like to discuss ways we can remedy this; such as, but not limited to: new methods of promotion, upgrades, and added site features besides the forum itself.

Again hopefully its just me, and that the series I read have turned to crap (Naruto), among other things.

[Dr. Casey]

My memory honestly isn't clear enough to say, though it might vary depending on the specific subforums you're talking about (Naruto I could certainly see being a lot slower - I don't know anything about the quality of the current material, but the franchise reached its peak popularity in the West around the 2004-2007 range as far as I'm aware). The fact that Visitor Messages have become much more popular the past 2-3 years also might play a role in offloading discussion from the forums themselves. Instead of asking about a series by posting within the subforum of the anime/manga in question (the only option back in the olden days), one might post a message on the Wall of a friend or acquaintance that is watching the series. Wall-to-wall debates have also become rather commonplace, sometimes replacing the post-to-post debates that would've taken place in years past.

[relentlessflame]

I think I would probably wait to see what happens in April when the new season begins. There are a number of things going on at this time of year for people who are in school, and the winter season is winding down. Each new anime season brings a flurry of new activity, and Spring tends to be more active than Winter.

[Solace]

Winter is probably the least frequented time for the forums. It's a busy time for people and very few big shows premier during this season. It's usually the time people finish up shows carrying over, or are sitting in their backlog, and there's just less energy in general.

In a sense, it mirrors other entertainment industries. The big stuff which gets people interested happens in Spring/Summer/Fall, usually compressed around Summer and the holidays as much as possible. Lulls happen simply because there isn't anything exciting that makes people want to talk about with others.

Next month will have a renewed amount of energy and activity, you'll see. Spring usually has at least a few heavy hitters, and that will carry into the big Summer stuff.

[oompa loompa]

Originally Posted by Artful Dodger

I've been around here just reading far before join date, and compared to the size of the site, I participate in a relatively small sub-set of forums. Still, I've noticed a significant decrease in created threads, responses and overall chatter. Is this just me (I hope so, as this can be a very enjoyable place to read and share)?

If its not just me, I'd like to discuss ways we can remedy this; such as, but not limited to: new methods of promotion, upgrades, and added site features besides the forum itself.

Again hopefully its just me, and that the series I read have turned to crap (Naruto), among other things.

Well, until we can get some stats out on at least a year to year basis its all just speculation. I think as Solace mentioned, a lot is seasonal; (This and a few posts aside), the majority of my activity on the forum happens during my vacations from school. I would be really interested in seeing the stats on how many of our older members are still active, and how many new members we get per year, along with the other stuff. God, the statistician in me is salivating thinking about it.

Speaking of which, anyone interested in starting an Asuki stats thread? I would be more than happy to help (along with anyone else), about consolidating data and running some regressions to see how our beloved website is faring.

[Dr. Casey]

Originally Posted by oompa loompa

and how many new members we get per year

I can handle this one in a few minutes using the Advanced Member Search.

2001: 7
2002: 5
2003: 2477
2004: 10,371
2005: 1492 (Weird. This seems too low, but that's what the results bring up...)
2006: 8647
2007: 10,134
2008: 9,712
2009: 11,573
2010: 9,004
2011: 10,559
2012: 7306
2013: 5712

[relentlessflame]

The "New Member Per Year" stat is misleading, though, because we implemented more advanced spam controls in more recent years.

2005 blip is due to the great forum crash.

[Dr. Casey]

Originally Posted by relentlessflame

The "New Member Per Year" stat is misleading, though, because we implemented more advanced spam controls in more recent years.

Glad to hear that's the case. I thought it might've been something like that.

[Triple_R]

Just based on a random sampling of episode threads for current and past popular anime shows, there does seem to be a considerable decline in episode thread activity.

I just checked random mid-point episode threads (i.e. not first episode, not last episode or penultimate episode) for Kill La Kill, Gundam Build Fighters, Ore no Imouto, SAO, Madoka Magica, Nanoha StrikerS, and Code Geass. I did this since episode threads tend to spike at the end (and/or have humble beginnings or spiked beginnings for sequels) so I felt a random mid-point episode would give a pretty good indication of overall activity on series subforums.

Code Geass R2 - A whopping 80 pages
Nanoha StrikerS - Well over 20
Madoka Magica - About 40
SAO - Well over 20
Ore no Imouto - About 20
Gundam Build Fighters - 8
Kill La Kill - 8

So yeah, considering this is in order from oldest to most recent, it does show a bit of a decline. Code Geass does appear to represent a high water mark. It seems like it was a truly special anime in its ability to bring together both old-school mecha fans and modern moe fans.

Madoka Magica may suggest, though, that this decline is probably less about Anime Suki in general then it is about current anime content offerings. In other words, Anime Suki's level of activity is understandably at least somewhat dependent upon what's airing at the moment.


That being said, I do wonder if...

1) A lot of the old school mecha viewers simply moved away from active anime watching (or at least internet discussions thereof).

2) If discussion is just as active today, but simply more fragmented (i.e. less "all in one place"). Dr. Casey's point about wall messages is something I definitely relate to here. Another possibility is that maybe Social Groups have picked up lately.

[RRW]

Code Geass R2 - A whopping 80 pages
Nanoha StrikerS - Well over 20
Madoka Magica - About 40
SAO - Well over 20
Ore no Imouto - About 20
Gundam Build Fighters - 8
Kill La Kill - 8

I like how you list anime that have high potential of shipping war other than last 2

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by RRW

I like how you list anime that have high potential of shipping war other than last 2

Madoka Magica had or has shipping war? I've known few anime fandoms as accepting of the "canon pairings" as the Madoka Magica fandom is.
I also don't recall much dispute over SAO's main pairing (admittedly I didn't stick around long after the 1st major arc).

But fine, if you think this is a big deal, then...

Log Horizon - 7 pages for Episode 19 thread
Chuunibyou - 5 pages for Episode 8 thread
Little Busters! Refrain - 4 pages for Episode 11 thread

So I've now covered all of the currently airing non-long runner anime shows with a series subforum here on AS. So as this should make clear I went with Kill La Kill and Gundam Build Fighters because they're the most popular series subforum shows I could find right now (and in Gundam Build Fighters case, it was also to sort of control for mecha fans, given Code Geass was the only other clear-cut mecha show on my list). I'm not cheery picking here - In fact, I'm trying to be as fair as possible.

[Fireminer]

Oh, who care about the quantity? The important thing is the quality of posts.

Is it higher than in the past?

I suspect the really good anime critics would rather open their own blogs.

[Magin]

There's this little snarky voice in the back of my head that says part of the decrease in forum activity is because of how unrelenting the mods can be if you step out of line with the rules, and thus those that might be prone to punishment have decided to take their comments elsewhere (for the internet, Animesuki tends to be one of the more civil and rules-enforced places)

But probably the real reason is the time of year, and not the most top-of-the-line shows being produced... although having seen what's in store for Spring, it's also (IMO) looking pretty dismal, with barely a handful of shows sounding decent. Summer is probably when activity will go on the rise again.

[Artful Dodger]

Originally Posted by relentlessflame

There are a number of things going on at this time of year for people who are in school, and the winter season is winding down.

Originally Posted by Solace

Winter is probably the least frequented time for the forums. It's a busy time for people and very few big shows premier during this season.

Originally Posted by Magin

But probably the real reason is the time of year, and not the most top-of-the-line shows being produced... although having seen what's in store for Spring

I wonder about that. From my experience, the winter time hasn't always been slow(but again, I frequent a very small subset of forums here). I'd actually imagine winter to be pretty lively on the forums since the weather doesn't facilitate much activity besides staying indoors curled up on your computer.

Originally Posted by Fireminer

Oh, who care about the quantity? The important thing is the quality of posts.

Well I feel its best to have a balance. If the forum consists 100% of high quality posts, it would probably seem a bit dry and dull for some people, and at the same time, you certainly can't have it turn into a cesspool of childish flamewars about people's favorite characters and other nonsense. I've read some really great intellectual flame-wars debates here about anime characters, manga philosophy, etc. and they were really a joy to follow along. That said, as far as anime forums go, this is the most mature and high quality I've come across. Anyway, the mods and long time members seem to have successfully created an atmosphere of what is deemed proper behavior; new members seem to catch on relatively quickly so I'd say this forum has no problem with quality. Surely more quality posts would be a good thing right? :P

Originally Posted by Dr. Casey

I can handle this one in a few minutes using the Advanced Member Search.

2001: 7
2002: 5
2003: 2477
2004: 10,371
2005: 1492 (Weird. This seems too low, but that's what the results bring up...)
2006: 8647
2007: 10,134
2008: 9,712
2009: 11,573
2010: 9,004
2011: 10,559
2012: 7306
2013: 5712

Nice. Is there a way to figure out how many members become inactive, also by year, to gain more perspective? Perhaps the mods have an even more advanced search tool available.

[Greenish Growth]

To me it does seem a little slower than usual, but I took that more as being because this season's shows have less to comment on. There is less interest in this season's selection of shows too.

Winter and Summer anime seasons tend to have fewer titles and the number of anime comments as whole always drop off late in the season.

I've been wondering if some of posters have moved on to the commercial anime/manga sites.

[Solace]

Originally Posted by Triple_R

Madoka Magica may suggest, though, that this decline is probably less about Anime Suki in general then it is about current anime content offerings. In other words, Anime Suki's level of activity is understandably at least somewhat dependent upon what's airing at the moment.

This is a good point, and quite true. It's important to recognize that the industry peaked in English speaking territories back in 2008 and has been in decline ever since. 2011 is somewhat of an aberration because we were dealing with a lot of bot accounts that year, which has also caused a decline in membership thanks to our improved security measures.

The 2005-2008 anime seasons were positively massive. One of the summer seasons had something like 50+ shows premiering. That's premiere, not just stuff being carried over. The industry saw huge potential in markets like the US and oversaturated it with titles, and of course those licenses weren't cheap. After the collapse a lot of companies went under or severely cut back on their output in both what they make and what is licensed.

But shows like Sword Art Online, Madoka, and Attack on Titan do show that when a title is big enough, people show up in large numbers to discuss it. But we'll likely never see the turnouts like we did back then.

[Dr. Casey]

Originally Posted by Fireminer

Is it higher than in the past?

Honestly? Yes. I do think the quality of discussion on AnimeSuki has increased over time. Triple's findings are very interesting and valid (especially for series like Madoka and Nanoha StrikerS, which had high-quality discourse), though part of the reason Code Geass R2 racked up such impressive post counts is because there were 20 pages of "oh my god I can't wait for the next episode!!!!!!!!!!!!111!!11!!!!!" each week before the episode even aired. A lot of the posts were just white noise. Looking back at other old series like Kimi ga Nozomu Eien (KGNE of course being significantly older than Code Geass R2, AnimeSuki was just a baby whenever it aired), I think the quality of discussion was lower on the whole there as well. There were some really damn good debates and conversations during the early and mid 2000s, of course, but on the whole I think the present averages out to being better than the past.

Originally Posted by Artful Dodger

Nice. Is there a way to figure out how many members become inactive, also by year, to gain more perspective? Perhaps the mods have an even more advanced search tool available.

I can combine the "Registration Date" search with the "Last Post" search to get some sort of insight on this. There's some margin of error here (it's not uncommon at all for people to sign in every now and again without posting), but it should give a rough estimate of how many people from past years are still active. I'll use January 1st 2013 as the cutoff point for "Last Post." These are the numbers for AnimeSuki members that have posted beyond January 1st 2013.

2001: 2 (just GHDPro and Lefteris_D)
2002: 1 (brightman is the lone 2002 representative, he should be proud)
2003: 104
2004: 207
2005: 147 (surprisingly high considering the AnimeSuki Apocalypse reduced the total number to just 1492)
2006: 353
2007: 459
2008: 489
2009: 467
2010: 445
2011: 503
2012: 947

[Archon_Wing]

I think it has to do with forums in general becoming less popular since it has to compete against web 2.0 shit and whatnot.

In a lot of these formats, we usually have to contend with fast and instant forms of communication, because this is an age of instant gratification and the time to sit down, think, and compose a forum post takes a lot more effort and not everyone has the time. In addition the economy hasn't been very hot as lately, and while I'd love to just sit around and watch/discuss anime, it's not happening. Ok, that was sort of a lie-- I wouldn't watch most anime anyways, but that was purely hypothetical.

But in a way the quality of forums in general have gone up, since people that are too stupid to post have found other methods of instant gratification. Now, one may object to this by saying that many forum posts are also stupid too and certainly a lot of people come to annoy me every time a post on Animesuki made them cry, but one just needs to look at an archive of a random forum discussion from 2001 to see some real atrocities. This in combination with the relatively proactive moderation policies here also helps cut the chaff and other unseemingly sights around these parts. It also helps that years of internet experience makes users and mods much harder to troll. In 2001, it was easy to copy and paste trolls because nobody knew how to use google or not follow unseemly links. Trolling these days generally takes a much higher skill level, but fortunately most miscreants aren't capable of such and resort to dated meta tactics for it thus getting canned quickly.

[Dr. Casey]

Originally Posted by Archon_Wing

I think it has to do with forums in general becoming less popular since it has to compete against web 2.0 shit and whatnot.

Interesting, this is a point that I wouldn't have considered myself. The birth of Web 2.0 is commonly dated as being around 2004, but it took social media a few years to build up and I don't remember them being hugely prominent until around the tail end of the decade, so that means message boards were the definitive form online communities took during the majority of the 2000s (there were a few alternatives, such as LiveJournal communities, but LiveJournal's primary use was for personal journal entries, with LJ communities in a completely different universe from message boards far as popularity goes). With places like Tumblr and Twitter becoming so popular, though, message boards share a smaller piece of the pie this decade than they did during the previous.

[Solace]

Originally Posted by Dr. Casey

With places like Tumblr and Twitter becoming so popular, though, message boards share a smaller piece of the pie this decade than they did during the previous.

Reddit is another example of Web 2.0 in action, although it does share a lot of similarity with the Chans which are fairly old now.

Forums are old fashioned now, perhaps. And it's not like Animesuki has embraced "social media" much. It's not really something the staff has talked about either.