Russia invasion of Ukraine

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by ramlaen

Any comments on the Russian army moving into eastern Ukraine today?

I doubt TheForsaken will ever again comment in this thread.

IMO putin is testing Biden (and the West), he is tacitly invading Ukraine and will push back the Ukranian army until they have 100% control of the Donbas are (which atm they seem to have only about half of it). Then of course they will say they are merely defending themselves while they keep moving the frontline west.

Will Biden put the mother of all sanctions in action? Putin is betting that he wont, he thinks democracies are weak and slow to act. Will Biden be the next chamberlain or Churchill?

[MeoTwister5]

So like is the Russia-Ukraine tension also affecting gas prices worldwide?

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by mangamuscle

I doubt TheForsaken will ever again comment in this thread.

IMO putin is testing Biden (and the West), he is tacitly invading Ukraine and will push back the Ukranian army until they have 100% control of the Donbas are (which atm they seem to have only about half of it). Then of course they will say they are merely defending themselves while they keep moving the frontline west.

Will Biden put the mother of all sanctions in action? Putin is betting that he wont, he thinks democracies are weak and slow to act. Will Biden be the next chamberlain or Churchill?

Putin more than likely think that Joe is another Jimmy Carter he can fool around.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by MeoTwister5

So like is the Russia-Ukraine tension also affecting gas prices worldwide?

Oil hits highest since 2014 on Russia-Ukraine escalation

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ne-2022-02-22/

Energy prices were already high before due to fear of war and I think we have yet to reach the peek.

BTW; I was mistaken, the mas evacuation of "russian citizens" from the donbar areas is only for women, children and the elderly; able men are supposed to be fight or at least be human shields used by the kremlin propaganda machine to claim "genocide".

The "russian" text says recognition and putin is saying "where have I seen you before" to his sock puppets.

[AnimeFan188]

Russian Forces Are Now Authorized To Use Force In Ukraine

"Russia's parliament has approved the use of military force in Ukraine, an authorization
that President Vladimir Putin could potentially be used to launch a larger military
intervention into that country. This comes a day after Russia sent troops into two
separatist areas of eastern Ukraine's Donbas region shortly after recognizing them as
independent countries. The U.S. government has now termed that deployment an
invasion, which may trigger the imposition of an array of major sanctions on Russia.
You can read more on what has already transpired recently in The War Zone's previous
reporting on this crisis.

Putin sent a letter seeking this authority to the upper house of Russia's parliament, or
Duma, earlier today, a proposal that lawmakers quickly rubber-stamped. If nothing else,
this will give Russian troops deployed in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic
and Luhansk People's Republic, or DNR and LNR respectively, the ability to use force
against threats in those areas. Though this is largely a formality, it is still a significant
one. It would seem likely that, at least in principle, this would also authorize the use of
Russian forces outside of the DNR and LNR to support forces there, as well as
potentially engage targets elsewhere in Ukraine as part of a larger intervention."

See:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...rce-in-ukraine

[Ithekro]

What are the odds, that if the West acts in the Urkraine, the China will use that as justification for actions in places of disputed ownership in their sphere of influence?

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by AnimeFan188

Russian Forces Are Now Authorized To Use Force In Ukraine

https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...ac9793ad9022a6

The East-West faceoff over Ukraine escalated dramatically Tuesday, with Russian lawmakers authorizing President Vladimir Putin to use military force outside his country and U.S. President Joe Biden and European leaders responding by slapping sanctions on Russian oligarchs and banks.

The devil is in the details, Moldova is also "outside his country" and there also are a separatist government that has been supported by putin for years. Also, let's not forget the Balkans.

Originally Posted by Ithekro

What are the odds, that if the West acts in the Urkraine, the China will use that as justification for actions in places of disputed ownership in their sphere of influence?

Depends on your definition. I don't see "the west" sending troops, but they will no doubt send intelligence, weapons and financial support. China has no one inside Taiwan that would receive such "foreign aid".

BTW, China recently supported Argentina's claim of sovereignty over the Falkland islands, now THAT is a similar scenario that mimic's China's claims.
--------------------
BTW, Syria now recognizes the Donbas breakaway republics, my bet is that also Venezuela, Nicaragua and Nauru (which recognize the Georgia breakaway republics) will in a few days. The real question is if China or countries in the CIS will recognize, otherwise I don't see any international support for putin's agenda, as in, there is no profit for other autocratic regimes to be made out of this mess.

[serenade_beta]

I was one of the ones that thought Putin wouldn't go and actually invade Ukraine, but well, color me surprised. Maybe age has done numbers on his head.

I'll predict China does nothing (since there is no benefit in supporting Russia outside of just selling a favor) and the Western countries will support Ukraine in any way other than sending in actual troops.

[Dharma]

Originally Posted by serenade_beta

I was one of the ones that thought Putin wouldn't go and actually invade Ukraine, but well, color me surprised. Maybe age has done numbers on his head.

I'll predict China does nothing (since there is no benefit in supporting Russia outside of just selling a favor) and the Western countries will support Ukraine in any way other than sending in actual troops.

He did not actually invade, not yet, he just technically invaded. Also don't forget Xi supporting him, so if this escalates to actually invading I will question Xi sanity also.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Dharma

He did not actually invade, not yet,

... so, let's say, that ethnic Russians in the north of Kyrgyzstan declared independence from the rest of the country and the Russian federation gave them Russian passports and recognized them as a country and sent (not United Nations sanctioned) "peacekeepers" to secure their well being. By your definition, that would not be an invasion, not yet.

[ramlaen]

Originally Posted by Dharma

He did not actually invade, not yet, he just technically invaded. Also don't forget Xi supporting him, so if this escalates to actually invading I will question Xi sanity also.

This is semantic games, Putin ordered the Russian army into Ukraine.

[ganbaru]

Originally Posted by mangamuscle

... so, let's say, that ethnic Russians in the north of Kyrgyzstan declared independence from the rest of the country and the Russian federation gave them Russian passports and recognized them as a country and sent (not United Nations sanctioned) "peacekeepers" to secure their well being. By your definition, that would not be an invasion, not yet.

Probably not the best example; isn't both Russia and Kyrgyzstan are part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

[Dharma]

Originally Posted by ramlaen

This is semantic games, Putin ordered the Russian army into Ukraine.

Yes, that is why it is technically an invasion, Russian style, without dead bodies. When said army starts to kill Ukrainians it will become actual American style invasion. Calling it invasion now is semantically right, but nothing of substance in situation on the ground has changed. That is, if he stops at the holding line (and yes, it is a big if, there are some alarming rhetoric floating around).

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by ganbaru

Probably not the best example; isn't both Russia and Kyrgyzstan are part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Because Putin is a man of honor that would never backstab his allies, naruhodo, naruhodo, I suppose Lukashenko has nothing to fear nowadays. Also, the USSR (from where the KGB agent called Vladimir takes his playbook) invading its allies in the Warsaw pact never happened:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warsaw...Czechoslovakia

Originally Posted by Dharma

Yes, that is why it is technically an invasion, Russian style, without dead bodies.

Russia kills 5 ‘Ukrainian saboteurs’ allegedly trying to breach border

https://nypost.com/2022/02/21/russia...breach-border/

Yeah sure, no dead bodies, then it would be "they invaded enemy territory" and then it will be "in self defense/they fired first" and then it will be "we are defending the motherland". The goalposts will keep moving just like the frontline.

ATM my bet is that just as announced putin will bomb the population of Donbas himself, call them Martyrs and use the lame excuse to proceed with operation shock and awe (written in Cyrillic, of course) to finally commit genocide on the Ukranian people. Plan B? There is no plan b.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z77JFw2D6f8

[ganbaru]

Originally Posted by mangamuscle

Because Putin is a man of honor that would never backstab his allies, naruhodo, naruhodo, I suppose Lukashenko has nothing to fear nowadays. Also, the USSR (from where the KGB agent called Vladimir takes his playbook) invading its allies in the Warsaw pact never happened:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warsaw...Czechoslovakia

What I mean is than the dynamic between the countries isn't the same; Putin isn't likely to use the same process for a invasion of a allied nation than with a non-allied one. As yoyu pointed out something closer of what happen to Czechoslovakia or having troops ''overstaying their welcome'' after a legitimate operation would be more simpler to pull out.

[Ithekro]

This is what I was afraid would happen: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...?ocid=msedgntp

Speaking in Beijing, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying dismissed any link between the issues of Ukraine and Taiwan.

"Taiwan is not Ukraine," she said. "Taiwan has always been an inalienable part of China. This is an indisputable legal and historical fact."

Meanwhile: Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen called for the island to beef up vigilance on military activities in response to the crisis.

[mangamuscle]

Ukraine crisis: Banks 'hit by cyber attacks' as government website home pages 'inaccessible'

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-c...sible-12549660

[Guardian Enzo]

It’s going to be interesting to see how Trump’s (totally unsurprising) declaration of support for Putin will impact the Republican caucus. Some of them have been pretty vocal about supporting Ukraine here but virtually the entire party has been utterly spineless as Trump has raised the treason bar over and over. It’s the veritable frog in the pot.

[ramlaen]

Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo

It’s going to be interesting to see how Trump’s (totally unsurprising) declaration of support for Putin will impact the Republican caucus. Some of them have been pretty vocal about supporting Ukraine here but virtually the entire party has been utterly spineless as Trump has raised the treason bar over and over. It’s the veritable frog in the pot.

Lets gaslight ourselves over media like the NYT calling Putin a master tactician in the last week.

[Guardian Enzo]

From Sky News:

Former US President Donald Trump has described Vladimir Putin's aggression towards Ukraine as "genius", "wonderful" and "very savvy".

During an interview with podcaster Buck Sexton, Mr Trump said he backed Mr Putin in his decision to send troops to perform "peacekeeping" duties in the Russian-controlled areas of southeast Ukraine.

"Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine, of Ukraine, Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that's wonderful."

Ukraine and most Western allies view the move as an occupation of the region which could lead to tougher sanctions and more conflict.

However, Mr Trump was full of praise for Russia's "peace force".

"We could use that on our southern border" he said. "That's the strongest peace force I've ever seen. They're gonna keep the peace all right."