[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni Chiru - Ep. 5 End of the golden witch

[Megaolix]

Come to think of it... That are two people coming out late at night each time except Episode 4.

That is, George and Shannon's scene. They do not arrive and return together.

And I don't believe Eva did any murder except Battler in Ep3. It could be possible for her to tell her husband she found the gold, but keep things quiet. Then ask him to cover for her while she meets Rosa.

Except, she finds Rosa and Maria dead. Besides, I doubt Hideyoshi could be convinced to murder someone.

[Ithekro]

Isn't it stated someplace that Episode 3 has a missing element...such as the culprit.

Thus there is a problem making theories that shift from one episode to the next...it isn't the same.

Basically I think that the point of episode 3 is to muck up with the theories. The murders are haphazard and things just go weird. Episodes 1 and 2 seem very orginized. Someone was thinking things out for the most part. We can't really tell what happened in Episode 4 and Episode five only has a mininal amount of dead.

The questions start to mount up. But the basic one is, who is starting the chain of events? Why the letter to Maria and why the First Twilight? After that point everything goes in different directions. Are they the same person/group? Or are they two seperate events...the second possibly taking advantage of the openning the first provides....or are they truely seperate, and the planned murders are not actually related to the first letter.

It seems odd that the chain of letters and murders fit together, yet in episode 5, the "problem" is solved and the gold found and supposedly recognized by everyone present on the island as having been found. If the two were related, the murders should not have happened, but they still did. Thus the question is why?

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

Thus the question is why?

This is probably reiterating the obvious, but it's because the person sending the letters and the person killing everyone are two different people with two different goals, right?

We can probably assume that while the first person is always the same, the second person changes from episode to episode.

Also, don't the letters have the same handwriting as the person who wrote in Maria's Grimoire and who wrote the letters in the bottles? Was that ever confirmed?

[LyricalAura]

Oh Ryukishi, you bastard.

I think I figured out what the trap in this Episode was. And I know how Hideyoshi was killed.

According to what we were shown, Eva arrived first and heard Hideyoshi being killed. She verified the chain was set and then ran to get help. A short time later, she and Gohda came back with a pair of wire cutters, with other people following close behind. In front of everyone, she verified that the chain was set again, and then had Gohda cut it. Everyone then filed into the room after her.

Eva pulled out the stake, unfortunately contaminating it with her fingerprints, but everyone was able to confirm Hideyoshi's death based on the wound. Erika arrived at this point after checking the storm shutters and also saw that Hideyoshi was dead, although the stake had already been removed. She checked everywhere in the room except the closet and found no one hiding. Since everyone is gathered in the room by this point except Natsuhi, she concluded that Natsuhi was the culprit, but we know this to be false based on the red text from Virgilia. So who else had the opportunity to do it?

According to the stakes' red text in the ura tea party, the first twilight victims were not actually dead at 7am when Battler woke up, so they are potential suspects. However, although the court only had the deaths confirmed at midnight, Battler had the deaths of George, Jessica, Maria, Rosa, and Genji confirmed by Virgilia at 12:33pm, over an hour before Hideyoshi's death. So they're excluded. We also know that Krauss is not the culprit, so even if the phone call Natsuhi heard him on was timeshifted, he's excluded as well.

Could Hideyoshi be faking his death? Erika didn't examine the corpse closely, so even though it was an obviously lethal wound, maybe... Except Kyrie, Eva, and Gohda all handled the body, wrapped it in blankets, and carried it to the lounge, where it was under observation by everyone throughout Erika's inquisition. All of this was in full sight of Erika, who has photographic memory and would presumably say something if she spotted the victim breathing. So let's exclude that possibility.

After Eva came into the room, everyone else filed in after her. So if they were outside the room, that means no one was hiding inside, in the closet or anywhere else. That means the chain was tampered with, just like so many people speculated for Episode 1's second twilight. And who was the only one who verified the chain before it was cut? Eva. Who had the opportunity to grab any evidence of tampering before anyone else came in? Eva. Who was the one who contaminated the fingerprints on the murder weapon? Eva. We might suppose that Gohda was an accomplice since he also interacted with the chain, but Eva checked it first. Eva is the only one with opportunity.

Eva killed her own beloved husband...?

Wrong.

Look at the closet again. The closet nobody searched. The closet on the wall right next to the door as you come in. The closet that's in a blind spot relative to the bed everyone's gathered around. After Eva burst into the room and ran to the bed, everyone else filed in after her. But what if not all of them filed in from the hallway? What if the last person actually slipped out of the closet and pretended to have come from the hallway in all of the commotion? This person could have hidden in the closet during the break after Natsuhi left the lounge, during which everyone's whereabouts are unknown.

Considering that a stake was used, it seems likely that this was an attempted second twilight. That is, the culprit intended to murder both Eva and Hideyoshi. However, they didn't predict that Hideyoshi would come ahead by himself, and jumped out of the closet before realizing that Eva wasn't there. In order for this to be the case, the culprit had to have known that Hideyoshi and Eva were using that guest room, out of all the guest rooms in the mansion. Even if the killer would settle for any couple, there are still more guest rooms than living couples. And unlike Episode 1, Natsuhi never had any guest rooms prepared in the mansion for them after the conference (they slept in the guesthouse). The suspects are therefore limited to people who were in the lounge during the break after Natsuhi left.

Unfortunately we don't know the exact order of people showing up at the crime scene. But the last person to speak up in that scene was Kanon, and Shannon was immediately before him. The two most suspicious people in the entire cast.

[Renall]

I don't know if that's the trap, but it's not a bad explanation for how somebody could've slipped back in with the group.

[luckyssol]

Another detail to add:
The guestroom's door was unlocked when Natsuhi went there to hide in the closet. Natsuhi commented that the door is usually locked after cleaning by Kumasawa and Shannon. This adds to suspicion of Kanon and Shannon who had access to the keys.

[Renall]

I just wonder, why Hideyoshi and Eva? They seem a very popular early twilight couple (Hideyoshi's arguably the least survivable character now, not even making it halfway in ep3 and always dying in the first or second before that). Does someone have a particular grudge against them? Does Shannon? Is it because of what we've been shown (George), or something else entirely?

[ameskitty]

Originally Posted by Renall

I just wonder, why Hideyoshi and Eva? They seem a very popular early twilight couple (Hideyoshi's arguably the least survivable character now, not even making it halfway in ep3 and always dying in the first or second before that). Does someone have a particular grudge against them? Does Shannon? Is it because of what we've been shown (George), or something else entirely?

Interesting question (especially since Shannon is increasingly becoming more suspicious), but it's probably mostly because they're "available". They have a tendency to break off from the group, and I think that's been strongly shown to be the approximate equivalent to suicide . In terms of the first twilight deaths, they're also targeted with a good amount of the rest of the parents, who they just happen to be in a conveniently-sized group with around midnight.

[Rias]

Besides the Shannon-George possibility, I think Eva is a prime target because she's 2nd in line for the family, and have a good chance of getting the family head seat (either for herself or for George) due to various reasons.

Hideyoshi on the other hand, has his suspicious moments, but really seems like a minor character so far...

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by the_rogue

Interesting question (especially since Shannon is increasingly becoming more suspicious), but it's probably mostly because they're "available". They have a tendency to break off from the group, and I think that's been strongly shown to be the approximate equivalent to suicide . In terms of the first twilight deaths, they're also targeted with a good amount of the rest of the parents, who they just happen to be in a conveniently-sized group with around midnight.

I would tend to agree, since the purpose of the murders is not to get revenge on someone. That doesn't totally rule out targeting them for some other reason, but since everyone's going to be killed anyway it doesn't seem like it would make a difference when they're killed.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

I would tend to agree, since the purpose of the murders is not to get revenge on someone. That doesn't totally rule out targeting them for some other reason, but since everyone's going to be killed anyway it doesn't seem like it would make a difference when they're killed.

Unless of course the person who wants Eva and Hideyoshi dead has no intention of killing everyone. If you view the murders as one person wanting 16 others dead, then sure it makes no sense to kill them early. On the other hand, if Eva and Hideyoshi are the only ones you want dead, or at least two out of a small group you want dead, you'll want them killed off as soon as possible.

[Volcanic]

If we look back at this post of mine, we can see that Eva and Hideyoshi...especially Hideyoshi...are, at times, canon fodder. ...Well, the "at times" only applies to Eva. Poor Hideyoshi is ALWAYS canon fodder.

Then again, Hideyoshi just gets more and more suspicious when we compile the evidence. He and Eva were one of the main suspects for First Twilight in EP1. Eva went on to become one of the major players in EP3 and a well-developed character in he own right, annnnnnd Hideyoshi not so much. xD

I can only see him as a accomplice though, considering he always dies so early, and if he was the mastermind

Spoiler for Higurashi Kai:

Ryukishi would be pulling a Takano on us again.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by Renall

Unless of course the person who wants Eva and Hideyoshi dead has no intention of killing everyone. If you view the murders as one person wanting 16 others dead, then sure it makes no sense to kill them early. On the other hand, if Eva and Hideyoshi are the only ones you want dead, or at least two out of a small group you want dead, you'll want them killed off as soon as possible.

I brought this up a while back, but it's possible that all the other deaths are simply insurance... if only, say, Eva and Hideyoshi died, the police might be able to pin the blame on someone that much easier. (Say, Natsuhi, who hated Eva, or George, who may have wanted to take over his father's company a bit earlier than was expected.)

If EVERYONE dies, however, it's actually harder to pin the blame on the one person left alive, especially if, say, that person's beloved child and spouse die as well, as we saw in Ep3.

Of course, it's just as probable that the Rokkenjima Murders are the result of several intertwining plots. It's never been confirmed that there's just one culprit per game, if I recall correctly, and it would explain why everyone dies. (In Ep1, for example, one of them has to be one of the cousins, (excluding Battler) and the other either Shannon or Kanon.)

Originally Posted by Volcanic

I can only see him as a accomplice though, considering he always dies so early, and if he was the mastermind

Spoiler for Higurashi Kai:

Ryukishi would be pulling a Takano on us again.

Which, in retrospect, was rather a cop-out.

Although Higurashi was less a mystery and more a psych-horror thriller.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

If EVERYONE dies, however, it's actually harder to pin the blame on the one person left alive, especially if, say, that person's beloved child and spouse die as well, as we saw in Ep3.

Is anyone cold enough to actually do this? I could see deciding to kill everyone else after one's family is killed off, but it's hard to imagine a lot of the family members in this killing off their parents or children. Certainly not impossible or anything, but it seems unlikely.

Unless, of course, they have insurance... but only Kyrie and Rudolf have a child safely off the island. If you were, say, Hideyoshi, and you wanted to avoid suspicion, couldn't you just come up with a business trip excuse to put you and George safely away while Eva goes about her business? It seems like that'd be easier, but nobody did it. Unless Ange's "sickness" was deliberate, anyway. That leads me to believe no one killer actually intended to massacre everybody. It just works out that way.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by Renall

Is anyone cold enough to actually do this? I could see deciding to kill everyone else after one's family is killed off, but it's hard to imagine a lot of the family members in this killing off their parents or children. Certainly not impossible or anything, but it seems unlikely.

Kyrie is definitely cold enough to do this.

However, we don't know enough about her to determine a motive... which all killers in a story like this, in the end, need. And since the mystery is supposedly solvable from Ep4, Kyrie probably isn't the killer. Probably.

Originally Posted by Renall

That leads me to believe no one killer actually intended to massacre everybody. It just works out that way.

I do agree, however. There are almost definitely multiple killers every game, probably the same three or four people.

[Marion]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

Kyrie is definitely cold enough to do this.

However, we don't know enough about her to determine a motive... which all killers in a story like this, in the end, need. And since the mystery is supposedly solvable from Ep4, Kyrie probably isn't the killer. Probably.

That's really the problem with Umineko. Half the human cast is underdeveloped by EP 4's end, because the focus was so much on the magical cast half the time. Majority of the parents don't even get fleshed out until EP 3.

[kite11]

Really, I never trust people in mysteries that I don't have enough info on, and there were plenty of chances to show off background, so probably next ep. we will get more background. (Like the "Orphanage of the servants, why Kumasawa and Shannon work for so long, more details about the family business, etc.) Really, I would not be surprised if we end up with 19 people on the Island next episode... (My bet is some friend of Battler, as he can add another piece as gamemaster) Battler just isn't a good enough check on Erika... How badly does the family need money/honor/whatever to lead to killings?

[Tyabann]

I really do hope this follows the Christie Principle of making the murderer(s) the most likely person(s) instead of, you know, the least.

It'd be disappointing for the killer to be Hideyoshi at this point.

[Marion]

Originally Posted by kite11

Really, I never trust people in mysteries that I don't have enough info on, and there were plenty of chances to show off background, so probably next ep. we will get more background. (Like the "Orphanage of the servants, why Kumasawa and Shannon work for so long, more details about the family business, etc.) Really, I would not be surprised if we end up with 19 people on the Island next episode... (My bet is some friend of Battler, as he can add another piece as gamemaster) Battler just isn't a good enough check on Erika... How badly does the family need money/honor/whatever to lead to killings?

I doubt the motivation is money.

Put it this way: the gold was found before the murders began. But the murders still occurred. If the murderer was one of the Ushiromiya adults, for example, then why would they need to kill now that they were all going to get up to 2 billion worth in gold?

I think the murderer is doing this for revenge. Beatrice was denied killing as revenge being her motive, but then again with Knox rules you might as well count her out as being the culprit and magic having to do with the crime all together :P

And yeah I agree, Kaisos. I actually think at this point George has something to do with the Beatrice letter at least, since he placed the mark on Maria's rose to begin with.

[rstrafford]

Originally Posted by Renall

You can't just ignore the behavior of the adults the morning after. They're naturally suspicious people, especially of each other. Yet they do not even consider each other as suspects in the first twilight murders and even go get Kinzo's guns and pass them out to their siblings. Surely no one would be so foolish as to give a weapon to a person he or she believes might be a murderer.

Is it ever explicitly stated that all of the guns work? We know that Eva's gun works, but what about Krauss' or the two during the fourth to sixth twilights?