[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by Kaiba

This time it's Shannon working completely alone, without any aid from Nanjo or Genji whatsoever. Jessica I'm not certain about, but Kyrie I'm more or less convinced she recorded that and then had the recording play towards Battler. I simply cannot accept that that was an alive Kyrie on the phone.

There is even less chance for Kyrie to be pressured into following Shannon's order if Kyrie knew Shannon was recording her voice.

Because it just meant Shannon would not let Kyrie talk to Battler.

But realistically, it is absurdly difficult to record Kyrie's speech and made the coversation with Battler, if you re-read that part.

[Kaiba]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

actually no I don't think that pinpointing the culprit is an easy task I can only have conjectures at the moment.

Actually I'm not even sure that a culprit exist at all as it was hinted in the game itself (EP6) the possibility that no one was ever murdered at all in the previous games. and that everyone died in the end only because of an unfortunate incident, after playing some kind of game where people faked their own deaths.

The existence of some kind of "game" where a lot of people are faking their own death and the others play along seem quite probable right now, however it is also possible that someone is taking advantage of the situation to kill for real. But who and why is anyone's guess.

As I said Kyrie is a probable one, I see George less probable now but it is still possible. And I wouldn't bet that it can only be either of them.


Anyway about EP2 I'm actually convinced that Beatrice really did show herself to the family and probably explained that she knows where the gold is hidden as well as some other secret (that she is the child from 19 years before maybe), and in that instance she got them to take part in the "game", probably by promising she would give them the gold if they did.

That would be the mother of all trolls, so I guess I can see it happening, though I would be incredibly angry at an ending where there is no culprit and we've been wasting our time trying to find one. At any rate, the question was less "can we pinpoint an exact culprit?" and more "whom can we tell is definitely not a culprit as of now?"

There is even less chance for Kyrie to be pressured into following Shannon's order if Kyrie knew Shannon was recording her voice.

Because it just meant Shannon would not let Kyrie talk to Battler.

But realistically, it is absurdly difficult to record Kyrie's speech and made the coversation with Battler, if you re-read that part.

I'll admit I don't like it. But I like Kyrie going around babbling about a witch even less as it contradicts everything we know about her, and I've established my problems with the scene where the Siestas opened fire on her group already, and Shannon holding Kyrie at gunpoint is iffy because of her locked room puzzle. Under those scenarios, a recording is my best guess.

[Jan-Poo]

At any rate, the question was less "can we pinpoint an exact culprit?" and more "whom can we tell is definitely not a culprit as of now?"

this is easier, there are a few that have a 100% chance of not being the culprits:

Kinzo: he's dead
Battler: confirmed in red

Then there are a few that were confirmed not being murderer or culprit in red. Though some might argue that it isn't certain they aren't culprit or murderer in other episodes, I believe that a culprit by chance would be kinda lame, so the "culprit" must be "culprit" in every episode, even if he doesn't get the chance to kill.

Genji, Kumasawa, Nanjo, Natsuhi

The first three might be questionable because it is only said they were not murderer in episode1, but Genji is the butler... please no... and Kumasawa and Nanjo are too old imho.

Maria is too young it wouldn't be realistic if she was the culprit.

Eva is being too much at the center of suspicion. If she was the culprit that would mean that all the irresponsible talk shows and magazines are right. Also everything we know from 1998 would point to the idea she really wasn't the culprit.

this leaves us with:

George
Shannon
Kanon
Jessica
Gohda
Kyrie
Rosa
Hideyoshi
Rudolf
Krauss


It is possible to exclude even more people among them but with a lower degree of certainty. For example Gohda to me seems very improbable because we have seen his thoughts in the extra tips. Rosa was also way too suspicious in EP2, 'though she was never pointed as a culprit in the game itself. Rudolf's thoughts have also been exposed already and he really doesn't seem to have any reason to kill nor the personality that would lead him to murder. Krauss is too coward and lacks initiative, although he might have a very good reason to kill everyone if his new business was going to fail bringing the whole family into misery, but in that case the discovery of the gold should have made him change his mind.

[ijriims]

Genji has been hinted as proficient in knife-throwing (a realistic skill), this is not something an ordinary servant would know.

Consider his age and his loyalty to Kinzo, someone speculates that Genji and Kinzo were both brothers-in-arm during WWII, and Kinzo had saved him during the war such that Genji was indebted to him. His skill of knife-throwing was also trained during the war.

And consider Nanjo and Kumasawa in EP2 were killed by a slash in the throat (also the bodies in EP5), you had to consider the murderer should be someone who had been skilled in using knife in combat...

[luckyssol]

Continuing from my previous posts: 07151129 and the mastermind’s motive

It all makes sense in my head but writing it all down in a way that clearly explains it all is a bit difficult.

I’ll explain some more elements that I forgot to explain in my previous posts:

Spoiler for ”Further explanation of the theory”:

To understand the theory you will have need to have read the other posts linked above which explain why I believe 07151129 is actually a name and the post regarding motive behind the murders.

Regarding 07151129, we were given a hint that the number should be added together by Nanjo:
“It could be a magic square. The idea is that a talisman can reside in a certain form of number play. I believe everyone has heard of the one where adding all of the numbers in each row leads to the same sum...”

The first Knox commandment states that it is forbidden for the culprit to be anyone not mentioned in the early part of the story.

It does not state anywhere the mastermind had to have been shown. None of the murders before midnight on October 5th were committed by Asumu so all the mysteries still need to be solved.

Regarding lack of characterization, I believe that once it’s understood that episode 3 and beyond are actually fictional tales written by a character within the game that we can learn a lot about the author of those stories.

In episode 6 we were given part of the solution. The tales “Banquet”, “Alliance”, “End”, and “Dawn” were fictional tales written by a mysterious author.

Assume that Ryukishi left enough clues to solve this game by the fourth episode. Then there must be enough clues within the first four games to deduce that “Banquet” and “Alliance” are fictional tales written by a character within the story.

Jan-Poo had already came up with the fictional tales theory well before episode 6.

From there, who would the author of those tales be?

Consider incident shown in “Banquet” where 'Beatrice' falls off the cliff. This incident was kept as a family secret and only few who were close to the family knew about it. This incident was also confirmed to have happened by red truth. How could the author of “Banquet” have known about this?

I believe that Asumu wrote the stories of episode 3 and beyond. I believe Asumu wants to not only reveal the truth regarding what happened but also wants to tell the story in a way where everyone who reads it and understands it will have a clear understanding of why she did all of this.

It’s clear in episode 6 that the author of the fake stories looked down on Ange. I believe this was because she was Kyrie’s child. However, she did feel pity for her so she wanted Ange to understand why she did it as well.

Her motive evolved over time from being a plot to kill Rudolf and Kyrie to a mercy killing where she wants to put the entire family out of its misery.

The bank accounts that Asumu had Shannon setup were to simply give back Kinzo’s fortune to the families of the victims which she had swindled from Krauss over time. (She had Shannon spy on Krauss to get inside information on him)

Shannon wrote in Maria's book and also wrote the letters in the bottles. The letters in the bottles were written before October 4th.

In the first letter, almost no events were shown with magical elements because she dies at the very beginning of the tale.

In the second letter, every twilight murder was shown with magic elements because she survives almost to the end.

She signed the letters in Maria's name so that those who would later read the tales would be able to link the one who wrote the letters in the bottles with the person who wrote in Maria's book. And that person signed their name in Maria's book as... Beatrice...

Even though Shannon signed her name as Beatrice and disguised as Beatrice she was not the same as the Beatrice who would have meta discussion with Battler throughout the tales.

-This Beatrice wanted Battler to learn the truth and he did.

-Asumu wants to understand the truth which Battler had reached.

This is the fundamental difference between the two.

Asumu could not simply appear before Battler and explain everything. She wanted for him to learn the truth so she used Beatrice’s help to show Battler the truth and now she wants to confirm what truth Battler had reached.

I believe her sickness is not what as she had described it to Ange. She is being tortured by herself for murdering the one who wasn’t her son but she still loved him as a son.

Think back to the riddle at the end of episode 4.

I am here now... you are alone on the island... and I will kill you...

We all thought it was Beatrice since it was Beatrice’s form that approached and hugged Battler. But was that really Beatrice at that time?

Beatrice was impaled by Battler’s blue truth and was a completely separate being from the one who said the words. It was the spirit that came out from Beatrice.

Then the spirit was somehow the author of the story projected into the story.

Asumu was the one who had Kanon plant the tnt all around the area surrounding the mansion. She was able to kill Battler with that, yet through her story, she was able to be there with him in his final moment in episode 4.

...

I will now put this theory into action and explain all of episode 3 using this theory. This of course is not the solution but it is a solution.

Spoiler for ”Episode 3, First Twilight”:

On the night of the first twilight George was woken up when he heard a slight sound. He slowly opened his eyes and saw Maria sneaking out of the room. He followed Maria until he saw her leave the guesthouse. He then hurried to catch up to her. As soon as went out the door he called out to Maria for her to stop. Maria didn’t stop and started to run away from George instead. George chased her and just when he was about to catch up to her he saw Shannon.

George called out to Shannon. Shannon turned around and saw George and Maria. Maria tried to explain to Shannon that she tried to best to sneak out without anyone noticing.

Shannon told George that she did it all to change her fate so they could be together. George didn’t understand what she meant and asked what she was talking about.

And then... she confessed that she had killed Kanon, Genji, Kumasawa, and Gohda. George couldn’t believe what he heard... was it some kind of a joke? Maria glared at Shannon and said in a childish voice that Shannon didn’t do it, the witch Beatrice did it. Shannon smiled at Maria and said that she was right, the witch Beatrice did it.

George really didn’t understand what was going on. Shannon told George that they needed to hurry. Shannon and Maria quickly headed to the mansion and George followed.

When they all got inside the mansion Shannon showed George what she had done. She had murdered Genji, Kumasawa, Gohda, and apparently she must have murdered Kinzo as well since she showed George a burnt corpse with six toes in the boiler room. Shannon kept repeating that it was all done to change her fate.

George couldn’t believe it. It was like his worst nightmare had come true. He began to cry and begged Shannon to give some kind of justification for all of this that he could understand. Shannon understood but did not want to say it in front of Maria. She asked Maria to begin painting the symbols on the doors.

Earlier, Shannon had explained to Maria that Beatrice told her that it needed to be done. Maria left and began painting the symbols on the various doors.

As soon as Maria left Shannon pulled out a letter from her pocket and handed it to George. The contents of the letter were as follows:

“Among the three mentioned below.
In order to gain two, sacrifice one.

1. Your life
2. George’s life
3. Everyone else’s lives

If you do not choose one, all of the above will be lost.”

The letter was written consistently except for the part where George’s name was written. It appeared as though someone had filled his name into a blank.

Spoiler:

Battler never found a letter with Shannon or Kanon’s name in the second option even though he thoroughly searched the entire area. This was the clue used to determine that only one letter ever existed.

George asked what the meaning of this letter was and who sent it to her. Shannon told him that she received the letter from Genji. Genji had told her that the letter was inside another letter from the person Shannon had been in contact with for a few years. Genji had also told her that Beatrice’s roulette was how the person was chosen regarding who the letter should be handed to.

Shannon also told George that there was never a person’s signature but in the place where a name should have been, a number was written. That number was...

07151129

George begged for her to stop all this crazy talk and starting crying again. He knew that there was no turning back for Shannon now. She was now... a criminal. George tried to think straight but he couldn’t. He continued crying.

Shannon hugged him and told him that it will all be ok. Her fate will now be changed with this.

After Shannon hugged him George regained some of his composure and began to think.

Someone must be threatening Shannon. That’s why she did all of this. She did it for George’s sake. She had chosen the third option and not the first or second. He would have made the same choice if he were in her position. He remembered that she said that she had also killed Kanon but she never showed him Kanon’s corpse.

George asked her about Kanon. She explained to him that Kanon, Genji, and Kumasawa were the only other people that knew about the letters she had been receiving from 07151129. Shannon explained that she had killed Kanon very early in the morning of October 4th, well before the boat arrived, and placed his body inside the chapel.

Spoiler:

Kanon’s corpse was later found inside the chapel. Out of all the victims of the first twilight only his was found outside the mansion. This was the clue used to determine that Kanon was killed early in the day on October 4th.

Shannon told him that there needs to be one more victim for this night. Her target was Nanjo but she said that any person would work for the remaining victim.

Maria had just finished painting the symbols on the doors. She was proud of the work she had done and was sure Beatrice would be pleased as well. She overheard George and Shannon talking and listened in on them.

Shannon was saying to George:
“...and, unfortunately, we will need to place stakes into them to complete the ritual. Rosa should not be a difficult person to isolate...”

Maria was in a happy mood but after hearing that she was filled with rage. They were trying to kill her mom? Maria believed that only Beatrice is allowed to choose the victims for the resurrection ceremony.

George said he understood everything Shannon was trying to do. He said he will go along with it and is willing to kill anyone that stands in the way of their relationship. He told Shannon that he will take care of Nanjo and that she should stay in the mansion. George left to take care of Nanjo.

After George left, Shannon went to the parlor room to pick up the short spear she had used in the first four murders. As she was picking it up and it was pointed her chest, Maria suddenly shoved her from behind.

Shannon fell on the short spear and her weight pushed it completely through her chest.

Maria yelled at her saying that only Beatrice has the right to choose. She won’t let Shannon hurt her mom. Maria then noticed the short spear that had been pierced into Shannon’s chest. She didn’t know that she had caused Shannon’s death and instead believed that Beatrice had chosen Shannon as the final victim.

Maria was able to turn Shannon slightly to one side and pull out the short spear by its handle. The spear had blood all over it but the handle had no blood on it.

Maria hid her painting tools in a closet along with the short spear. Maria believed that she was Beatrice’s messenger. Shannon had also told Maria what Beatrice wanted to happen on that night. That’s why she hid her painting tools and the short spear.

Maria took the key to the chapel and all five master keys that were in Shannon’s pocket. She also took the envelopes from Shannon’s other pocket. She was careful to keep them in order so that the correct key inside each envelope would be placed in the correct corresponding room. The envelope on the bottom of the stack was empty, unsealed and did not have a key in it yet.

Earlier, Shannon had shown her the order in which the envelopes were stacked and told her how Beatrice wanted them to be placed. She placed all of them in her bag.

First, Maria went to check to make sure that none of the doors were locked. They were all unlocked.

Next, she went back to the first floor parlor and placed the envelope with the key to second floor guest room next to Shannon’s corpse. She also placed a master key in Shannon’s pocket. The door was locked with one of the four remaining master keys from her bag.

Next, she went to the second floor guest room and placed the envelope with the key to the third floor waiting room next to Kumasawa’s corpse. She also placed a master key in Kumasawa’s pocket. The door was locked with one of the three remaining master keys from her bag.

Next, she went to the third floor waiting room and placed the envelope with the key to the second floor VIP room next to Gohda’s corpse. She also placed a master key in Gohda’s pocket. The door was locked with one of the two remaining master keys from her bag.

Next, she went to the second floor VIP room and placed the envelope with the key to the boiler room next to Genji’s corpse. She also placed a master key in Genji’s pocket. The door was locked with the last remaining master key from her bag.

Next, she went to the boiler room and locked the door from the inside with the last remaining master key from her bag. She opened the back door to the boiler room and put a wedge in it so that it would not close.

Next, she went to the chapel and placed the envelope with the key to the first floor parlor next to Kanon’s corpse. She also placed the final master key in Kanon’s pocket. She then locked the door to the chapel with the chapel key.

Next, she went back to the boiler room. Kinzo’s ring and the tools to create a wax seal were inside a large box just like Shannon had told her they would be. Maria placed the chapel key in the empty envelope and created the wax seal using Kinzo’s ring. After using the ring she placed it inside her bag.

She also hid the tools used to create the wax seal because she believed that Beatrice would want her to do that.

Next, she placed that envelope along with another envelope from her bag near where Kinzo was burned.

Finally, she left the boiler room and closed the door behind her.

The door that leads to the courtyard from the boiler room cannot be opened from the outside. Therefore, a perfect closed room chain was created.

Maria believed that Beatrice would praise all her hard work so she was happy again. She went back to bed after that.

Meanwhile... on the way to the guesthouse George looked down at the letter Shannon had handed to him. A part of him was still in denial of what happened. He crumpled up the letter and threw it into a bush.

After George reached the guesthouse he found Nanjo attacked him. Nanjo begged for his life and said that he can’t die here because he has a sick granddaughter to take care of. George listened to Nanjo’s story.

George remembered Shannon’s words that anyone would be fine for the remaining victim so he decided to spare Nanjo’s life. However, he only spared his life conditionally. He told Nanjo that there would be more victims and if he wants to live he must cooperate. George told him that the victims will need to be staked and where to stake them at.

Earlier, Shannon had given George the details on the plan. George told Nanjo where the stakes were hidden and that he couldn’t do it himself because the stakes would be too troublesome for him to carry around. Nanjo will go along with the plan to save his own life.

George then heads back to the mansion. If the family conference had ended his plan would be to isolate his mother and eliminate her. He knew how his mom treated Shannon behind his back. She was always in the way between Shannon and him.

George went back to the mansion and looked through the window to the dining room. The adults were still there having the conference. He went back to the room where Shannon was to check on her.

What was this? The door was locked.

He went back outside and looked in the room through the window...

!?...

Shannon was in there but was not moving. George wanted to break the glass and make sure she was ok.

But he had a terrible feeling about what he would find in there. This whole situation had become a nightmare. He can’t go in there. No, he won’t go in there. If he doesn’t go in then the possibility still exists that she’s still ok since he can’t confirm it.

He’s no longer in his right mind. This all must be a bad dream for him. That’s the solution. He’ll return to the guesthouse and go to back to sleep. When he wakes up everything will be ok...

Spoiler for ”Episode 3, Second Twilight”:

It wasn’t just a bad dream like George had thought it was. The adults confirmed that Shannon was dead in the first floor parlor.

George didn’t care about the ritual plan anymore. Shannon was dead. Nothing had any kind of meaning anymore.

The adults also confirmed the other corpses and Kanon’s. Jessica’s worst nightmare had come true as well.

They decided to move to the guesthouse since it could be fortified and is much more secure than the mansion.

Maria had been up almost all night and it showed:

Spoiler:

“Maria had gone back to sleep in the sofa Rosa was sitting in. Rather than her having nerves of steel, she probably genuinely hadn’t had enough sleep.”

After settling in, the adults worked on the epitaph together. Most of the adults gave up and decided to rest. Eva had an idea went to check in an atlas. Rosa quietly followed her from behind.

After Eva found the gold, she left the room and started to head back to the mansion. On the stairs leading back up, Rosa was waiting for her. Rosa congratulated Eva on solving the epitaph and finding the hidden gold.

Eva and Rosa returned to the guesthouse. Even though she had found the gold, the marathon conference and the time spent solving the epitaph finally began to take its toll on her.

She complained of a headache and went to a room with Hideyoshi to rest. There was some commotion in the hallway and Hideyoshi went to check it out. Eva overheard some of the conversation between Hideyoshi, Maria, and Rosa.

Eva thought about her younger sister’s problems. But also realized something else...

Isn’t it too much of a coincidence that Rosa was right on the stairs after she left the room where the hidden gold was hidden?

Eva looked through the window and saw through the window that Maria and Rosa were now outside and going to look for the rose.

After Hideyoshi returned she told him that she was going to use the restroom. Eva thought about going outside to confront Rosa but changed her mind and actually did go to the restroom.

Just before the family conference Rudolf had received a letter. It was not signed with a name. In place of a name was the number...

07151129

The letter was strange. It had no kind of postage and appeared as though it was delivered in person.

The message inside the letter said that if Battler attended the family conference that he would be killed without fail.

Rudolf had ignored this message and thought it was just some kind of prank. However, since six people died it became clear that it was no prank. He wondered why he wasn’t killed but the servants were.

He thought of why the person who sent the letter would want Battler to not attend the family conference so badly.

Rudolf began to suspect that he would be killed ever since the letter from Beatrice appeared and was read. He wanted to tell Battler the truth about his birth circumstances before he died.

Since Maria said she received the letter from Beatrice he wanted to check if there was any other letter hidden in her bag. The opportunity presented itself when Maria had fallen asleep on the sofa and Rosa wasn’t looking.

When he looked in Maria’s bag he saw...

Kinzo’s ring!

It became clear to him that Rosa was involved with Kinzo’s murder and the murder of all the servants. Rosa couldn’t have been directly involved with the murders since she was at the family conference the whole time but maybe she was the one manipulating someone else to do the murders.

He has to protect his family. Even though she’s his sister, Kyrie and Battler’s safety comes first.

The opportunity came when Rosa and Maria had been searching for the rose in the rose garden and people began to wonder where they were at.

Rudolf killed Rosa and was forced to kill Maria as well. He took Kinzo’s ring from Maria’s bag and placed it in his pocket. He also left Rosa’s gun to raise suspicion on Nanjo who was by himself. He’ll try to frame Nanjo when he gets back to the guesthouse.

Spoiler:

Beatrice and Ronove’s conversation while Battler wasn’t around seems to point the fact that Eva was not responsible for the second twilight.

Spoiler for ”Episode 3, Fourth, Fifth, and Sixth Twilights”:

Rudolf confirmed the deaths of Rosa and Maria in the rose garden. Rosa and Maria’s corpses were moved to a room in the guest house and it was sealed.

Since Nanjo was threatened by George earlier to place stakes into all the victims he needed to remain a presence in the shadows and look for opportunities. He felt that since George spared his life that he could move around and place the stakes into the victims without worrying about being killed.

Hideyoshi test fired Rosa’s gun to confirm that Rosa never fired any bullets. Rosa was killed by someone she knew since she let her guard down.

Kyrie asked for everyone’s alibis. Everyone’s alibis seemed solid but Kyrie is incredibly smart. She knew Hideyoshi could easily be lying. Also, she found it strange the Rudolf would suggest that Nanjo jumped out the window, did the crime, and climbed back up the drain pipe to his room. She told Rudolf she wanted to go outside.

They planned the mission to get food and went to the mansion. Once Rudolf, Hideyoshi, and Kyrie got to the mansion she began to question them both.

Rudolf was being elusive with his answers and Kyrie noticed it. She quickly reached into his pocket to check if he was hiding something.

Unfortunately, he was...

At first Kyrie didn’t recognize it but then she remembered a few years ago when she met with Kinzo. It was definitely his ring! She slammed the ring down onto the epitaph under the portrait where the ring would lay for a good while without anyone noticing...

Rudolf tried to explain that he had gotten the letter from 07151129 and he wasn’t involved with Kinzo’s murder and he had to protect his family and...

Kyrie couldn’t believe it and slapped him. He tried to explain things but she slapped him again.

Hideyoshi was standing a few feet away from both of them and was yelling for them to stop.

Rudolf noticed that Hideyoshi had raised his gun at him. He knocked Kyrie away and pointed the gun back at Hideyoshi. Kyrie hit her head when she fell to the ground and was knocked unconscious.

Both men were yelling loudly at each other and weren’t listening to what the other was trying to say. When one of them flinched they both fired their guns at the same time. The wounds were instantly fatal for both men.

When Rudolf, Hideyoshi, and Kyrie had left to go to the mansion they were noticed by Nanjo who was watching the area from his window.

Earlier he had gone to were the stakes were hidden and hid all of them inside his room. He suspected that at least one of them might become a victim so he escaped from the guesthouse with three of the stakes.

He made it to the mansion and, as he expected, Rudolf, Hideyoshi, and Kyrie appeared to be victims. He didn’t waste time checking their condition. He placed the three stakes into them and noticed that there were two guns left at the scene. Nanjo grabbed both the guns for his protection.

Kyrie slowly regained consciousness and saw Nanjo leaving. She looked down at her stomach and, to her horror; a stake had been placed in it.

When having a stake in your stomach is not your biggest problem you know you’re in deep shit.

Kyrie saw that Rudolf had been killed with a stake in his forehead. She believed that Nanjo was responsible for it. She had to think clearly. Battler was still alive and needed to be protected. She decided that when the others come and find the bodies that she will fake her death and wait for an opportunity to kill Nanjo.

The others came and confirmed the bodies on the ground. Kyrie did a good job at faking her death. No one noticed.

As soon as they all left Kyrie pulled the stake out and wrapped the wound to prevent further blood loss.

It was difficult and painful for her to move but she was motivated to protect Battler. She looked down at Rudolf’s corpse and shed tears. She couldn’t understand why he would be involved with something like this.

Out of anger she went outside the mansion and threw the stake as far as she could. It was thrown a considerable ways away from the mansion. That helped her calm down a bit and she was thinking clearly again. She needed to find a weapon.

Kyrie searched throughout the mansion and found a spear like weapon which could also be concealed behind her back.

She remembered some of Rudolf’s last words. He said that he had received a letter from 07151129? This had to be some kind of important clue. She decided to paint the number on one of the doors in case she didn’t have the opportunity to pass the clue on to anyone else.

With her wound it would be too difficult to attempt to make it back to the guesthouse. Nanjo would probably return at some point. The best plan would be to pretend to be dead again.

She lied back down in the position she had fallen unconscious at. The weapon was hidden behind her. This time she was armed and would be waiting for him.

Spoiler for ”Episode 3, Seventh and Eighth Twilights”:

George wondered why was it that people had to die.

Jessica responded saying that it is always difficult to say goodbye. She believed that Kinzo had probably grown obsessed with the occult to revive his mistress Beatrice.

George said that if he was reunited with the one who had already passed away he was happy.

Battler asked where Nanjo was.

Jessica said that he was in the next room.

George then remembered about Nanjo. He had told him to place the stakes into the victims according to Shannon’s plan.

...?

Was Nanjo involved with his father’s death? He needed to question him. He told Battler and Jessica that he was going to get coffee and went to see Nanjo.

George asked Nanjo about Rudolf, Hideyoshi, and Kyrie. Nanjo said he had nothing to do with it and that he only placed the stakes like George had asked him to do.

George believed him. He remembered that there was no way he could have killed Shannon.

That’s when George realized it. It had to have been someone from the mansion. Perhaps it was one or more of the adults who took a break during the conference.

Could it have been his mom? He couldn’t deny the possibility because of how she treated Shannon behind his back. However, that didn’t line up with the deaths of the three in the mansion. He knew there’s no way his mom would kill Hideyoshi.

Then was it a different adult? Natsuhi consistently treated Shannon and the rest of the servants like furniture.

In fact, where were Natsuhi and Krauss when the three were killed in the mansion?

...

They said that they had remained in the guesthouse but does that make sense?

A killer was on the loose and they decided to split up and head to the guesthouse?

What if it was all masterminded by Krauss and Natsuhi who set up the closed rooms with the servants, Kinzo, and Shannon to frame the rest of the adults?

It made sense because George knew that the adults were cornering Krauss for money and this could have been a way to frame them with the murders to get out of that situation. The fact that the deaths of the servants, Kinzo and Shannon occurred during the family conference would raise suspicion on everyone except Krauss and Natsuhi since they could have killed them at any time prior to the conference.

Then after they realized that the frame job would probably not work due to everyone’s alibis they decided to take care of the rest of the adults and make it look like some unknown culprit was involved.

It all made sense to George. He knew that his mom would probably be the next target.

George asked Nanjo for two of the stakes which Nanjo then handed to him. He also pulled off a thin wire off from the closet. It was a weapon he could easily wind up and conceal in his pocket without anyone noticing.

George asked Nanjo if he had a master key. Nanjo had taken one earlier since he was inspecting all the corpses so he handed it to George.

George then asked for Nanjo to follow him and close and lock the window behind him. George opened window and threw the stakes down to an area that would not interfere with his landing. Then George jumped out the window. Nanjo closed the window behind him.

George then went out to the arbor of the rose garden and placed the two stakes on the ground. The stakes would act as a distraction so he could back attack them.

George returned to the guesthouse and knocked on the front door. Krauss and Natsuhi opened the door and were shocked to see him outside. They asked him how he got outside. He told them that he had found where the culprit was hiding.

Krauss, who was armed with a gun, and Natsuhi followed him to the arbor of the rose garden. George asked for them to look at what he had found. Krauss leaned over and looked at the two stakes on the ground and was puzzled.

As soon he did that, George took out the wire from his pocket and began to strangle Krauss. Krauss dropped his gun and reached his own neck while choking to death.

Natsuhi screamed at George to stop and went to pick up the gun. Before Natsuhi could reach it, George was able to kick it away into a rose bush. Natsuhi tried to pull George away but it was too late. Krauss fell to the ground dead.

George then began to strangle Natsuhi.

Natsuhi could not believe that it would all end here. Natsuhi had been a faithful wife her entire life and always did her best to protect the honor of the family...

...

George remained silent for a while. Less than 24 hours ago this was the exact place where he had offered Shannon all of his heart and proposed to her. Now, Shannon was gone and the scene had become one of death and carnage.

George swelled up with sadness and anger. He cried out and he plunged the stakes into the legs of Natsuhi and Krauss in the way that Shannon had told him to do earlier. He wanted to see Shannon’s face one more time. He left the arbor and headed towards the mansion...

Spoiler for ”Episode 3, George and Nanjo”:

George entered the mansion. When he reached the door to where Shannon was he couldn’t believe what he saw.

07151129

George thought he was alone so he spoke to himself out loud. Who in the world out of the remaining people island would also know about 07151129?

Kyrie remained lying on the ground since it was only George at not Nanjo like she was expecting. She was starting to feel the effects of her blood loss. When she heard George’s comment all she could think about was protecting Battler and that George somehow knew about 07151129.

George unlocked the door with his key and entered the room. As he did that, he looked down at his chest to find that the weapon that Kyrie had been holding was now sticking through his back and out his chest. Kyrie pulled it out of him.

George didn’t even look back to see who did it. He had to see Shannon’s face one more time. He dropped the key that he was holding and slowly staged towards Shannon and then fell to the ground. The last thing he saw... was Shannon’s face.

Kyrie knew about George and Shannon but she had to protect Battler. She closed the door and locked it with the key that George had dropped so that it became a tomb for the couple.

Kyrie went back to her position on the ground. She was starting to lose consciousness. She wondered if she should have gone after Nanjo instead of waiting for him.

After that, Eva, Jessica, Battler, and Nanjo found the corpses of Natsuhi and Krauss. Jessica had lost her parents in the worst way possible and began to cry. After a short while she was filled with rage and wanted revenge. At that point Jessica would kill anyone who remained on the island who could be associated with her parents and Kanon’s murder.

Eva began to worry about George and raced towards the mansion. They were all right behind her.

Nanjo, Eva, Battler, Jessica reached the door with the number on it. They both were completely puzzled by it. Battler commented how the first part was the same as his birthday while Eva wrote the number down.

Kyrie was still on the floor but had become completely dazed and was close to losing consciousness. She heard Battler’s comment about the date and the number. She wanted to stand up and let them know she was still alive but her body was no longer under control and she was about to lose consciousness.

Eva tried to open the door but it was locked. Eva unlocked the door with her key and they entered the room. To their horror, George was dead next to Shannon with a massive chest wound.

Eva had now lost her entire family. Overwhelmed by sadness, she cried for the loss of her only son.

Suddenly, Jessica yelled at Eva while Nanjo was trying to restrain her. She had realized that Eva was probably downstairs when he parents were killed. Eva needed to die.

Jessica made a move at Eva which caused her to react and accidently fire a shot that grazed Jessica’s face. She was instantly blinded by it.

Eva didn’t mean to fire she just reacted. Nanjo took Jessica into the other room to treat her wound.

Kyrie was on death’s doorstep. She thought of Battler and tried to remember his last words.

07151129... Battler’s birthday...

!?...

When she put the two together she suddenly understood what it meant and who was behind all of this. Renewed by rage and envy she had not felt in six years, she rose to her feet.

After treating Jessica’s wound Nanjo headed towards the hallway. Just before Nanjo was able to leave the servant’s room Kyrie appeared in front of him. Kyrie did need to move any closer to Nanjo or even take a step into the servant’s room.

Nanjo was already in point blank range. She stabbed him right through his eye. Nanjo fell to the ground and died.

Kyrie recalled that she had heard Battler’s voice and stumbled towards another room. Unfortunately Kyrie had gone in the opposite direction from where Battler and Eva were. She went into an empty room.

Jessica was completely defenseless since she was blind. Then Kanon’s ghost appeared.

Kanon asked M’lady to stand so she could escape from the room.

Jessica refused. As long as Kanon continued to call her M’lady she could not trust him.

Kanon asked Jessica to stand.

Kanon guided Jessica to another room. Jessica would not feel any fear, even up until her final moments.

Back regarding Eva and Battler...

After Jessica had already left, they had returned to the servant’s room only to find Nanjo’s corpse. They called out for Jessica and ran to the front of the parlor.

Kyrie had heard their voices and came out to see them. Battler and Eva looked over and saw Kyrie. At first Battler thought it was a ghost. Eva was completely shocked as well... until she saw the weapon that Kyrie was holding...

!?...

She had murdered George! Without a second of hesitation Eva aimed the gun at Kyrie and fired. Kyrie was sent flying backward. The weapon she was holding in one hand and the key she was holding in the other went in opposite directions away from her. (Eva shooting Kyrie probably occurred because what lead Battler to suddenly accuse Eva in a later on was never shown)

Kyrie had fought to the very end. However, the last thing she saw as she looked over at the other door was...

07151129... it was unbelievable... for six years she had thought she had won... in the end, she knew she had lost...

Battler couldn’t believe what had just occurred before his eyes.

At this moment, Eva began to spin a red spider web around where Battler was. Of course, it wasn’t literally a red spider web but Battler was in a state of shock where he could not move.

Battler stared at Eva in disbelief. She had just killed Kyrie in front of his eyes. He then accused Eva of being the culprit.

Eva had put everything together. Battler’s family was responsible for everything in her eyes. However, she had the gun and not him. Eva laughed and commented how it took him too long to notice. Then she shot him in the chest.

In Battler’s last moments, he realized without a doubt that she was a murderer. And not just for killing him...

Eva couldn’t believe that her family was completely gone. The only thing she had left was the gold.

Eva left the room and entered the hallway. She stood in front of Beatrice’s portrait and looked down at the epitaph she had worked so hard to solve.

Kinzo’s ring was on it. After everything that had happened during this day she was not even surprised by it. She took the ring and put it on her finger.

As the corpses of the entire Ushiromiya family lay scattered throughout the island of Rokkenjima, only Eva remained standing. She was now the head of the family... but at what cost...

She left the mansion and went to the old well behind the mansion. Apparently, the device she had operated earlier at the chapel did not need to be used again since there was no cover on the well. She climbed down the well just as she had done earlier.

When she got to the bottom she was about to take the stairs down again but she there were two ways to go at the bottom of the well. She had not taken the incredibly long tunnel the last time she was down here. She decided to take it this time to see where it would go...

This post is incredibly large so please send a PM regarding type-o's

[Antera Caramichael]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Spoiler for size:

That whole Kinzo name succession thing was just one of Battler's theories in EP4, and Lambda said that pretty much everything he said was wrong. I never really took that particular example seriously, except as a sign that Ryuukishi considers playing with names to be fair game. I mean, logically speaking, it makes no sense at all. Did Kinzo inherit the previous head's name? Of course not. His personal name has nothing to do with the position of the headship.

She said that almost all his theories were wrong, but she never said that all of them were She said that because this theory didn't broke up any mysteries since "There are no more than 17 people on the island" and Kinzo's theory only broke the mystery about the reconition of Kinzo.
Can you found another theory that can explain "Everyone reconize Kinzo" other than Battler's?
Since there is a previous case that show that this theory is entirely possible for another, I don't see anything against the name exchanging, exept of course for Kanon.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

You are missing something in your picture

Because of your sin everyone dies

I don't think that your Kyrie theory would match with this, after all if Kyrie was bent on killing all of the Ushiromiya then everyone would die regardless of whatever sin battler committed 6 years before.

Because of Battler's sin everyone dies
Battler is not the culprit

Which means that according to Ryukishi it is possible to be the cause of everyone's death and not being the culprit at the same time.

It indeed is a problem, but which can be solved:
One of the first theories about Battler sin was that he left the Ushiromiya Family.
With this, it is easily solvable: Because Battler left, he couldn't prevent Kasumi from changing into Kyrie and thus prevent the murders.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Actually I'm not even sure that a culprit exist at all as it was hinted in the game itself (EP6) the possibility that no one was ever murdered at all in the previous games. and that everyone died in the end only because of an unfortunate incident, after playing some kind of game where people faked their own deaths.

The existence of some kind of "game" where a lot of people are faking their own death and the others play along seem quite probable right now, however it is also possible that someone is taking advantage of the situation to kill for real. But who and why is anyone's guess.

As I said Kyrie is a probable one, I see George less probable now but it is still possible. And I wouldn't bet that it can only be either of them.

The 15 people mentioned are dead
Nanjo was killed by another person
People die when they are dead!
I already proclaimed in red at the time that there were no suicides!!

These are samples^^
After you can deny the red truths but....

[Judoh]

The only other problem I see with the Knox's rules with a Kasumi or Asumu culprit theory is

Knox's 10th- It is forbidden for a character to disguise themselves as another without any clues.

This is the only problem, but if you assume the author will present clues for this later in the story there isn't a contradiction. The problem remains though that if no clues are presented in the story than it doesn't work.

Also maybe Kasumi wouldn't be considered as being mentioned in the early part of the story becuase her first appearance comes in the 1998 part of episode 4. Maybe you have to be mentioned in episode 1 or the beginning of any episode to be a culprit.

Hypothetically you could make a red like this

Dlanor: This is UNFORTUNATE for you!! Sadera Kasumi has never been MENTIONED by anyone on October of 1986 therefore by Knox's rules she cannot be the culprit!!!

[imaginari]

If the culprit died in EP2 first twilight, there would have to be someone who would carry out their killings exactly as they would, as well as someone who would commit an incredibly gruesome murder that would get rid of said culprit. That one doesn't look fakeable, at all.

I don't think that it was any of them.

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by Judoh

The only other problem I see with the Knox's rules with a Kasumi or Asumu culprit theory is

Knox's 10th- It is forbidden for a character to disguise themselves as another without any clues.

This is the only problem, but if you assume the author will present clues for this later in the story there isn't a contradiction. The problem remains though that if no clues are presented in the story than it doesn't work.

If you read my theory I explain how you can get Asumu from 07151129. Also, Asumu uses no disguises in person in my theory.

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by Ssol

I’ll explain some more elements that I forgot to explain in my previous posts:

Spoiler for ”Further explanation of my theory”:

To understand the theory you will have need to have read the other posts linked above which explain why I believe 07151129 is actually a name and the post regarding motive behind the murders.

Regarding 07151129, we were given a hint that the number should be added together by Nanjo:
“It could be a magic square. The idea is that a talisman can reside in a certain form of number play. I believe everyone has heard of the one where adding all of the numbers in each row leads to the same sum...”

The first Knox commandment states that it is forbidden for the culprit to be anyone not mentioned in the early part of the story.

It does not state anywhere the mastermind had to have been shown. As I said before, none of the murders before midnight on October 5th were committed by Asumu so all the mysteries still need to be solved.

Regarding lack of characterization, I believe that once it’s understood that episode 3 and beyond are actually fake stories written by a character within the game that we can learn a lot about the author of those stories.

I believe that Asumu wrote the stories of episode 3 and beyond. I believe Asumu wants to not only reveal the truth regarding what happened but wants a clear understanding of why she did all of this.

Her motive evolved over time from being a plot to kill Rudolf and Kyrie to a mercy killing where she wants to put the entire family out of its misery.

The bank accounts that Asumu had Shannon setup were to simply give back Kinzo’s fortune to the families of the victims which she had swindled from Krauss over time. (She had Shannon spy on Krauss to get inside information on him)

It’s clear in episode 6 that the author of the fake stories looked down on Ange. I believe this was because she was Kyrie’s child. However, she did feel pity for her so she wanted Ange to understand why she did it as well.

Beatrice wanted Battler to learn the truth and he did.

Asumu wants to understand the truth which Battler had reached.

This is the fundamental difference between the two.

Asumu could not simply appear before Battler and explain everything. She wanted for him to learn the truth so she used Beatrice’s help to show Battler the truth and now she wants to confirm what truth Battler had reached.

I believe her sickness is not what as she had described it to Ange. She is being tortured by herself for murdering the one who wasn’t her son but she still loved him as a son.

Think back to the riddle at the end of episode 4.

I am here now... you are alone on the island... and I will kill you...

We all thought it was Beatrice since it was Beatrice’s form that approached and hugged Battler. But was that really Beatrice at that time?

Beatrice was impaled by Battler’s blue truth and was a completely separate being from the one who said the words. It was the spirit that came out from Beatrice.

Then the spirit was somehow the author of the story projected into the story.

Asumu was the one who had Kanon plant the tnt all around the area surrounding the mansion. She was able to kill Battler with that, yet through her story, she was able to be there with him in his final moment in episode 4.

...

I have a long ways to go writing this theory but this is a start. I’ll probably change many things as I go along as well.

I will now put this theory into action and explain all of episode 3 using this theory. This of course is not the solution but it is a solution.

Spoiler for ”Episode 3, First Twilight”:

On the night of the first twilight George was woken up when he heard a slight sound. He slowly opened his eyes and saw Maria sneaking out of the room. He followed Maria until he saw her leave the guesthouse. He then hurried to catch up to her. As soon as went out the door he called out to Maria for her to stop. Maria didn’t stop and started to run away from George instead. George chased her and just when he was about to catch up to her he saw Shannon.

George called out to Shannon. Shannon turned around and saw George and Maria. Maria tried to explain to Shannon that she tried to best to sneak out without anyone noticing.

Shannon told George that she did it all to change her fate so they could be together. George didn’t understand what she meant and asked what she was talking about.

And then... she confessed that she had killed Kanon, Genji, Kumasawa, and Gohda. George couldn’t believe what he heard... was it some kind of a joke? Maria glared at Shannon and said in a childish voice that Shannon didn’t do it, the witch Beatrice did it. Shannon smiled at Maria and said that she was right, the witch Beatrice did it.

George really didn’t understand what was going on. Shannon told George that they needed to hurry. Shannon and Maria quickly headed to the mansion and George followed.

When they all got inside the mansion Shannon showed George what she had done. She had murdered Genji, Kumasawa, Gohda, and apparently she must have murdered Kinzo as well since she showed George a burnt corpse with six toes in the boiler room. Shannon kept repeating that it was all done to change her fate.

George couldn’t believe it. It was like his worst nightmare had come true. He began to cry and begged Shannon to give some kind of justification for all of this that he could understand. Shannon understood but did not want to say it in front of Maria. She asked Maria to begin painting the symbols on the doors.

Earlier, Shannon had explained to Maria that Beatrice told her that it needed to be done. Maria left and began painting the symbols on the various doors.

As soon as Maria left Shannon pulled out a letter from her pocket and handed it to George. The contents of the letter were as follows:

“Among the three mentioned below.
In order to gain two, sacrifice one.

1. Your life
2. George’s life
3. Everyone else’s lives

If you do not choose one, all of the above will be lost.”

The letter was written consistently except for the part where George’s name was written. It appeared as though someone had filled his name into a blank.

Spoiler:

Battler never found a letter with Shannon or Kanon’s name in the second option even though he thoroughly searched the entire area. This was the clue used to determine that only one letter ever existed.

George asked what the meaning of this letter was and who sent it to her. Shannon told him that she received the letter from Genji. Genji had told her that the letter was inside another letter from the person Shannon had been in contact with for a few years. Genji had also told her that Beatrice’s roulette was how the person was chosen regarding who the letter should be handed to.

Shannon also told George that there was never a person’s signature but in the place where a name should have been, a number was written. That number was...

07151129

George begged for her to stop all this crazy talk and starting crying again. He knew that there was no turning back for Shannon now. She was now... a criminal. George tried to think straight but he couldn’t. He continued crying.

Shannon hugged him and told him that it will all be ok. Her fate will now be changed with this.

After Shannon hugged him George regained some of his composure and began to think.

Someone must be threatening Shannon. That’s why she did all of this. She did it for George’s sake. She had chosen the third option and not the first or second. He would have made the same choice if he were in her position. He remembered that she said that she had also killed Kanon but she never showed him Kanon’s corpse.

George asked her about Kanon. She explained to him that Kanon, Genji, and Kumasawa were the only other people that knew about the letters she had been receiving from 07151129. Shannon explained that she had killed Kanon very early in the morning of October 4th, well before the boat arrived, and placed his body inside the chapel.

Spoiler:

Kanon’s corpse was later found inside the chapel. Out of all the victims of the first twilight only his was found outside the mansion. This was the clue used to determine that Kanon was killed early in the day on October 4th.

Shannon told him that there needs to be one more victim for this night. Her target was Nanjo but she said that any person would work for the remaining victim.

Maria had just finished painting the symbols on the doors. She was proud of the work she had done and was sure Beatrice would be pleased as well. She overheard George and Shannon talking and listened in on them.

Shannon was saying to George:
“...and, unfortunately, we will need to place stakes into them to complete the ritual. Rosa should not be a difficult person to isolate...”

Maria was in a happy mood but after hearing that she was filled with rage. They were trying to kill her mom? Maria believed that only Beatrice is allowed to choose the victims for the resurrection ceremony.

George said he understood everything Shannon was trying to do. He said he will go along with it and is willing to kill anyone that stands in the way of their relationship. He told Shannon that he will take care of Nanjo and that she should stay in the mansion. George left to take care of Nanjo.

After George left, Shannon went to the parlor room to pick up the short spear she had used in the first four murders. As she was picking it up and it was pointed her chest, Maria suddenly shoved her from behind.

Shannon fell on the short spear and her weight pushed it completely through her chest.

Maria yelled at her saying that only Beatrice has the right to choose. She won’t let Shannon hurt her mom. Maria then noticed the short spear that had been pierced into Shannon’s chest. She didn’t know that she had caused Shannon’s death and instead believed that Beatrice had chosen Shannon as the final victim.

Maria was able to turn Shannon slightly to one side and pull out the short spear by its handle. The spear had blood all over it but the handle had no blood on it.

Maria hid her painting tools in a closet in the parlor along with the short spear. Maria believed that she was Beatrice’s messenger. Shannon had also told Maria what Beatrice wanted to happen on that night. That’s why she hid her painting tools and the short spear.

Maria took the key to the chapel and all five master keys that were in Shannon’s pocket. She also took the envelopes from Shannon’s other pocket. She was careful to keep them in order so that the correct key inside each envelope would be placed in the correct corresponding room. The envelope on the bottom of the stack was empty, unsealed and did not have a key in it yet.

Earlier, Shannon had shown her the order in which the envelopes were stacked and told her how Beatrice wanted them to be placed. She placed all of them in her bag.

First, Maria went to check to make sure that none of the doors were locked. They were all unlocked.

Next, she went back to the first floor parlor and placed the envelope with the key to second floor guest room next to Shannon’s corpse. She also placed a master key in Shannon’s pocket. The door was locked with one of the four remaining master keys from her bag.

Next, she went to the second floor guest room and placed the envelope with the key to the third floor waiting room next to Kumasawa’s corpse. She also placed a master key in Kumasawa’s pocket. The door was locked with one of the three remaining master keys from her bag.

Next, she went to the third floor waiting room and placed the envelope with the key to the second floor VIP room next to Gohda’s corpse. She also placed a master key in Gohda’s pocket. The door was locked with one of the two remaining master keys from her bag.

Next, she went to the second floor VIP room and placed the envelope with the key to the boiler room next to Genji’s corpse. She also placed a master key in Genji’s pocket. The door was locked with the last remaining master key from her bag.

Next, she went to the boiler room and locked the door from the inside with the last remaining master key from her bag. She opened the back door to the boiler room and put a wedge in it so that it would not close.

Next, she went to the chapel and placed the envelope with the key to the first floor parlor next to Kanon’s corpse. She also placed the final master key in Kanon’s pocket. She then locked the door to the chapel with the chapel key.

Next, she went back to the boiler room. Kinzo’s ring and the tools to create a wax seal were inside a large box just like Shannon had told her they would be. Maria placed the chapel key in the empty envelope and created the wax seal using Kinzo’s ring. After using the ring she placed it inside her bag.

She also hid the tools used to create the wax seal because she believed that Beatrice would want her to do that.

Next, she placed that envelope along with another envelope from her bag near where Kinzo was burned.

Finally, she left the boiler room and closed the door behind her.

The door that leads to the courtyard from the boiler room cannot be opened from the outside. Therefore, a perfect closed room chain was created.

Maria believed that Beatrice would praise all her hard work so she was happy again. She went back to bed after that.

Meanwhile... on the way to the guesthouse George looked down at the letter Shannon had handed to him. A part of him was still in denial of what happened. He crumpled up the letter and threw it into a bush.

After George reached the guesthouse he found Nanjo attacked him. Nanjo begged for his life and said that he can’t die here because he has a sick granddaughter to take care of. George listened to Nanjo’s story.

George remembered Shannon’s words that anyone would be fine for the remaining victim so he decided to spare Nanjo’s life. However, he only spared his life conditionally. He told Nanjo that there would be more victims and if he wants to live he must cooperate. George told him that the victims will need to be staked and where to stake them at.

Earlier, Shannon had given George the details on the plan. George told Nanjo where the stakes were hidden and that he couldn’t do it himself because the stakes would be too troublesome for him to carry around. Nanjo will go along with the plan to save his own life.

George then heads back to the mansion. If the family conference had ended his plan would be to isolate his mother and eliminate her. He knew how his mom treated Shannon behind his back. She was always in the way between Shannon and him.

George went back to the mansion and looked through the window to the dining room. The adults were still there having the conference. He went back to the room where Shannon was to check on her.

What was this? The door was locked.

He went back outside and looked in the room through the window...

!?...

Shannon was in there but was not moving. George wanted to break the glass and make sure she was ok.

But he had a terrible feeling about what he would find in there. This whole situation had become a nightmare. He can’t go in there. No, he won’t go in there. If he doesn’t go in then the possibility still exists that she’s still ok since he can’t confirm it.

He’s no longer in his right mind. This all must be a bad dream for him. That’s the solution. He’ll return to the guesthouse and go to back to sleep. When he wakes up everything will be ok...

Spoiler for ”Episode 3, Second Twilight”:

It wasn’t just a bad dream like George had thought it was. The adults confirmed that Shannon was dead in the first floor parlor.

George didn’t care about the ritual plan anymore. Shannon was dead. Nothing had any kind of meaning anymore.

The adults also confirmed the other corpses and Kanon’s. Jessica’s worst nightmare had come true as well.

They decided to move to the guesthouse since it could be fortified and is much more secure than the mansion.

Maria had been up almost all night and it showed:

Spoiler:

“Maria had gone back to sleep in the sofa Rosa was sitting in. Rather than her having nerves of steel, she probably genuinely hadn’t had enough sleep.”

After settling in, the adults worked on the epitaph together. Most of the adults gave up and decided to rest. Eva had an idea went to check in an atlas. Rosa quietly followed her from behind.

After Eva found the gold, she left the room and started to head back to the mansion. On the stairs leading back up, Rosa was waiting for her. Rosa congratulated Eva on solving the epitaph and finding the hidden gold.

Eva and Rosa returned to the guesthouse. Even though she had found the gold, the marathon conference and the time spent solving the epitaph finally began to take its toll on her.

She complained of a headache and went to a room with Hideyoshi to rest. There was some commotion in the hallway and Hideyoshi went to check it out. Eva overheard some of the conversation between Hideyoshi, Maria, and Rosa.

Eva thought about her younger sister’s problems. But also realized something else...

Isn’t it too much of a coincidence that Rosa was right on the stairs after she left the room where the hidden gold was hidden?

Eva looked through the window and saw through the window that Maria and Rosa were now outside and going to look for the rose.

After Hideyoshi returned she told him that she was going to use the restroom. Eva thought about going outside to confront Rosa but changed her mind and actually did go to the restroom.

Just before the family conference Rudolf had received a letter. It was not signed with a name. In place of a name was the number...

07151129

The letter was strange. It had no kind of postage and appeared as though it was delivered in person.

The message inside the letter said that if Battler attended the family conference that he would be killed without fail.

Rudolf had ignored this message and thought it was just some kind of prank. However, since six people died it became clear that it was no prank. He wondered why he wasn’t killed but the servants were.

He thought of why the person who sent the letter would want Battler to not attend the family conference so badly.

Rudolf began to suspect that he would be killed ever since the letter from Beatrice appeared and was read. He wanted to tell Battler the truth about his birth circumstances before he died.

Since Maria said she received the letter from Beatrice he wanted to check if there was any other letter hidden in her bag. The opportunity presented itself when Maria had fallen asleep on the sofa and Rosa wasn’t looking.

When he looked in Maria’s bag he saw...

Kinzo’s ring!

It became clear to him that Rosa was involved with Kinzo’s murder and the murder of all the servants. Rosa couldn’t have been directly involved with the murders since she was at the family conference the whole time but maybe she was the one manipulating someone else to do the murders.

He has to protect his family. Even though she’s his sister, Kyrie and Battler’s safety comes first.

The opportunity came when Rosa and Maria had been searching for the rose in the rose garden and people began to wonder where they were at.

Rudolf killed Rosa and was forced to kill Maria as well. He took Kinzo’s ring from Maria’s bag and placed it in his pocket. He also left Rosa’s gun to raise suspicion on Nanjo who was by himself. He’ll try to frame Nanjo when he gets back to the guesthouse.

Spoiler:

Beatrice and Ronove’s conversation while Battler wasn’t around seems to point the fact that Eva was not responsible for the second twilight.

Spoiler for ”Episode 3, Fourth, Fifth, and Sixth Twilights”:

Rudolf confirmed the deaths of Rosa and Maria in the rose garden. Rosa and Maria’s corpses were moved to a room in the guest house and it was sealed.

Since Nanjo was threatened by George earlier to place stakes into all the victims he needed to remain a presence in the shadows and look for opportunities. He felt that since George spared his life that he could move around and place the stakes into the victims without worrying about being killed.

Hideyoshi test fired Rosa’s gun to confirm that Rosa never fired any bullets. Rosa was killed by someone she knew since she let her guard down.

Kyrie asked for everyone’s alibis. Everyone’s alibis seemed solid but Kyrie is incredibly smart. She knew Hideyoshi could easily be lying. Also, she found it strange the Rudolf would suggest that Nanjo jumped out the window, did the crime, and climbed back up the drain pipe to his room. She told Rudolf she wanted to go outside.

They planned the mission to get food and went to the mansion. Once Rudolf, Hideyoshi, and Kyrie got to the mansion she began to question them both.

Rudolf was being elusive with his answers and Kyrie noticed it. She quickly reached into his pocket to check if he was hiding something.

Unfortunately, he was...

At first Kyrie didn’t recognize it but then she remembered a few years ago when she met with Kinzo. It was definitely his ring! She slammed the ring down onto the epitaph under the portrait where the ring would lay for a good while without anyone noticing...

Rudolf tried to explain that he had gotten the letter from 07151129 and he wasn’t involved with Kinzo’s murder and he had to protect his family and...

Kyrie couldn’t believe it and slapped him. He tried to explain things but she slapped him again.

Hideyoshi was standing a few feet away from both of them and was yelling for them to stop.

Rudolf noticed that Hideyoshi had raised his gun at him. He knocked Kyrie away and pointed the gun back at Hideyoshi. Kyrie hit her head when she fell to the ground and was knocked unconscious.

Both men were yelling loudly at each other and weren’t listening to what the other was trying to say. When one of them flinched they both fired their guns at the same time. The wounds were instantly fatal for both men.

When Rudolf, Hideyoshi, and Kyrie had left to go to the mansion they were noticed by Nanjo who was watching the area from his window.

Earlier he had gone to were the stakes were hidden and hid all of them inside his room. He suspected that at least one of them might become a victim so he escaped from the guesthouse with three of the stakes.

He made it to the mansion and, as he expected, Rudolf, Hideyoshi, and Kyrie appeared to be victims. He didn’t waste time checking their condition. He placed the three stakes into them and noticed that there were two guns left at the scene. Nanjo grabbed both the guns for his protection.

Kyrie slowly regained consciousness and saw Nanjo leaving. She looked down at her stomach and, to her horror; a stake had been placed in it.

When having a stake in your stomach is not your biggest problem you know you’re in deep shit.

Kyrie saw that Rudolf had been killed with a stake in his forehead. She believed that Nanjo was responsible for it. She had to think clearly. Battler was still alive and needed to be protected. She decided that when the others come and find the bodies that she will fake her death and wait for an opportunity to kill Nanjo.

The others came and confirmed the bodies on the ground. Kyrie did a good job at faking her death. No one noticed.

As soon as they all left Kyrie pulled the stake out and wrapped the wound to prevent further blood loss.

It was difficult and painful for her to move but she was motivated to protect Battler. She looked down at Rudolf’s corpse and shed tears. She couldn’t understand why he would be involved with something like this.

Out of anger she went outside the mansion and threw the stake as far as she could. It was thrown a considerable ways away from the mansion. That helped her calm down a bit and she was thinking clearly again. She needed to find a weapon.

Kyrie searched throughout the mansion and found a spear like weapon which could also be concealed behind her back.

She remembered some of Rudolf’s last words. He said that he had received a letter from 07151129? This had to be some kind of important clue. She decided to paint the number on one of the doors in case she didn’t have the opportunity to pass the clue on to anyone else.

With her wound it would be too difficult to attempt to make it back to the guesthouse. Nanjo would probably return at some point. The best plan would be to pretend to be dead again.

She lied back down in the position she had fallen unconscious at. The weapon was hidden behind her. This time she was armed and would be waiting for him.

Spoiler for ”Episode 3, Seventh and Eighth Twilights”:

George wondered why was it that people had to die.

Jessica responded saying that it is always difficult to say goodbye. She believed that Kinzo had probably grown obsessed with the occult to revive his mistress Beatrice.

George said that if he was reunited with the one who had already passed away he was happy.

Battler asked where Nanjo was.

Jessica said that he was in the next room.

George then remembered about Nanjo. He had told him to place the stakes into the victims according to Shannon’s plan.

...?

Was Nanjo involved with his father’s death? He needed to question him. He told Battler and Jessica that he was going to get coffee and went to see Nanjo.

George asked Nanjo about Rudolf, Hideyoshi, and Kyrie. Nanjo said he had nothing to do with it and that he only placed the stakes like George had asked him to do.

George believed him. He remembered that there was no way he could have killed Shannon.

That’s when George realized it. It had to have been someone from the mansion. Perhaps it was one or more of the adults who took a break during the conference.

Could it have been his mom? He couldn’t deny the possibility because of how she treated Shannon behind his back. However, that didn’t line up with the deaths of the three in the mansion. He knew there’s no way his mom would kill Hideyoshi.

Then was it a different adult? Natsuhi consistently treated Shannon and the rest of the servants like furniture.

In fact, where were Natsuhi and Krauss when the three were killed in the mansion?

...

They said that they had remained in the guesthouse but does that make sense?

A killer was on the loose and they decided to split up and head to the guesthouse?

What if it was all masterminded by Krauss and Natsuhi who set up the closed rooms with the servants, Kinzo, and Shannon to frame the rest of the adults?

It made sense because George knew that the adults were cornering Krauss for money and this could have been a way to frame them with the murders to get out of that situation. The fact that the deaths of the servants, Kinzo and Shannon occurred during the family conference would raise suspicion on everyone except Krauss and Natsuhi since they could have killed them at any time prior to the conference.

Then after they realized that the frame job would probably not work due to everyone’s alibis they decided to take care of the rest of the adults and make it look like some unknown culprit was involved.

It all made sense to George. He knew that his mom would probably be the next target.

George asked Nanjo for two of the stakes which Nanjo then handed to him. He also pulled off a thin wire off from the closet. It was a weapon he could easily wind up and conceal in his pocket without anyone noticing.

George asked Nanjo if he had a master key. Nanjo had taken one earlier since he was inspecting all the corpses so he handed it to George.

George then asked for Nanjo to follow him and close and lock the window behind him. George opened window and threw the stakes down to an area that would not interfere with his landing. Then George jumped out the window. Nanjo closed the window behind him.

George then went out to the arbor of the rose garden and placed the two stakes on the ground. The stakes would act as a distraction so he could back attack them.

George returned to the guesthouse and knocked on the front door. Krauss and Natsuhi opened the door and were shocked to see him outside. They asked him how he got outside. He told them that he had found where the culprit was hiding.

Krauss, who was armed with a gun, and Natsuhi followed him to the arbor of the rose garden. George asked for them to look at what he had found. Krauss leaned over and looked at the two stakes on the ground and was puzzled.

As soon he did that, George took out the wire from his pocket and began to strangle Krauss. Krauss dropped his gun and reached his own neck while choking to death.

Natsuhi screamed at George to stop and went to pick up the gun. Before Natsuhi could reach it, George was able to kick it away into a rose bush. Natsuhi tried to pull George away but it was too late. Krauss fell to the ground dead.

George then began to strangle Natsuhi.

Natsuhi could not believe that it would all end here. Natsuhi had been a faithful wife her entire life and always did her best to protect the honor of the family...

...

George remained silent for a while. Less than 24 hours ago this was the exact place where he had offered Shannon all of his heart and proposed to her. Now, Shannon was gone and the scene had become one of death and carnage.

George swelled up with sadness and anger. He cried out and he plunged the stakes into the legs of Natsuhi and Krauss in the way that Shannon had told him to do earlier. He wanted to see Shannon’s face one more time. He left the arbor and headed towards the mansion...

Spoiler for ”Episode 3, George and Nanjo”:

George entered the mansion. When he reached the door to where Shannon was he couldn’t believe what he saw.

07151129

George thought he was alone so he spoke to himself out loud. Who in the world out of the remaining people island would also know about 07151129?

Kyrie remained lying on the ground since it was only George at not Nanjo like she was expecting. She was starting to feel the effects of her blood loss. When she heard George’s comment all she could think about was protecting Battler and that George somehow knew about 07151129.

George unlocked the door with his key and entered the room. As he did that, he looked down at his chest to find that the weapon that Kyrie had been holding was now sticking through his back and out his chest. Kyrie pulled it out of him.

George didn’t even look back to see who did it. He had to see Shannon’s face one more time. He dropped the key that he was holding and slowly staged towards Shannon and then fell to the ground. The last thing he saw... was Shannon’s face.

Kyrie knew about George and Shannon but she had to protect Battler. She closed the door and locked it with the key that George had dropped so that it became a tomb for the couple.

Kyrie went back to her position on the ground. She was starting to lose consciousness. She wondered if she should have gone after Nanjo instead of waiting for him.

After that, Eva, Jessica, Battler, and Nanjo found the corpses of Natsuhi and Krauss. Jessica had lost her parents in the worst way possible and began to cry. After a short while she was filled with rage and wanted revenge. At that point Jessica would kill anyone who remained on the island who could be associated with her parents and Kanon’s murder.

Eva began to worry about George and raced towards the mansion. They were all right behind her.

Nanjo, Eva, Battler, Jessica reached the door with the number on it. They both were completely puzzled by it. Battler commented how the first part was the same as his birthday while Eva wrote the number down.

Kyrie was still on the floor but had become completely dazed and was close to losing consciousness. She heard Battler’s comment about the date and the number. She wanted to stand up and let them know she was still alive but her body was no longer under control and she was about to lose consciousness.

Eva tried to open the door but it was locked. Eva unlocked the door with her key and they entered the room. To their horror, George was dead next to Shannon with a massive chest wound.

Eva had now lost her entire family. Overwhelmed by sadness, she cried for the loss of her only son.

Suddenly, Jessica yelled at Eva while Nanjo was trying to restrain her. She had realized that Eva was probably downstairs when he parents were killed. Eva needed to die.

Jessica made a move at Eva which caused her to react and accidently fire a shot that grazed Jessica’s face. She was instantly blinded by it.

Eva didn’t mean to fire she just reacted. Nanjo took Jessica into the other room to treat her wound.

Kyrie was on death’s doorstep. She thought of Battler and tried to remember his last words.

07151129... Battler’s birthday...

!?...

When she put the two together she suddenly understood what it meant and who was behind all of this. Renewed by rage and envy she had not felt in six years, she rose to her feet.

After treating Jessica’s wound Nanjo headed towards the hallway. Just before Nanjo was able to leave the servant’s room Kyrie appeared in front of him. Kyrie did need to move any closer to Nanjo or even take a step into the servant’s room.

Nanjo was already in point blank range. She stabbed him right through his eye. Nanjo fell to the ground and died.

Kyrie recalled that she had heard Battler’s voice and stumbled towards another room. Unfortunately Kyrie had gone in the opposite direction from where Battler and Eva were. She went into an empty room.

Jessica was completely defenseless since she was blind. Then Kanon’s ghost appeared.

Kanon asked M’lady to stand so she could escape from the room.

Jessica refused. As long as Kanon continued to call her M’lady she could not trust him.

Kanon asked Jessica to stand.

Kanon guided Jessica to another room. Jessica would not feel any fear, even up until her final moments.

Back regarding Eva and Battler...

After Jessica had already left, they had returned to the servant’s room only to find Nanjo’s corpse. They called out for Jessica and ran to the front of the parlor.

Kyrie had heard their voices and came out to see them. Battler and Eva looked over and saw Kyrie. At first Battler thought it was a ghost. Eva was completely shocked as well... until she saw the weapon that Kyrie was holding...

!?...

She had murdered George! Without a second of hesitation Eva aimed the gun at Kyrie and fired. Kyrie was sent flying backward. The weapon she was holding in one hand and the key she was holding in the other went in opposite directions away from her. (Eva shooting Kyrie probably occurred because what lead Battler to suddenly accuse Eva in a later on was never shown)

Kyrie had fought to the very end. However, the last thing she saw as she looked over at the other door was...

07151129... it was unbelievable... for six years she had thought she had won... in the end, she knew she had lost...

Battler couldn’t believe what had just occurred before his eyes.

At this moment, Eva began to spin a red spider web around where Battler was. Of course, it wasn’t literally a red spider web but Battler was in a state of shock where he could not move.

Battler stared at Eva in disbelief. She had just killed Kyrie in front of his eyes. He then accused Eva of being the culprit.

Eva had put everything together. Battler’s family was responsible for everything in her eyes. However, she had the gun and not him. Eva laughed and commented how it took him too long to notice. Then she shot him in the chest.

In Battler’s last moments, he realized without a doubt that she was a murderer. And not just for killing him...

Eva couldn’t believe that her family was completely gone. The only thing she had left was the gold.

Eva left the room and entered the hallway. She stood in front of Beatrice’s portrait and looked down at the epitaph she had worked so hard to solve.

Kinzo’s ring was on it. After everything that had happened during this day she was not even surprised by it. She took the ring and put it on her finger.

As the corpses of the entire Ushiromiya family lay scattered throughout the island of Rokkenjima, only Eva remained standing. She was now the head of the family... but at what cost...

She left the mansion and went to the old well behind the mansion. Apparently, the device she had operated earlier at the chapel did not need to be used again since there was no cover on the well. She climbed down the well just as she had done earlier.

When she got to the bottom she was about to take the stairs down again but she there were two ways to go at the bottom of the well. She had not taken the incredibly long tunnel the last time she was down here. She decided to take it this time to see where it would go...

This post is incredibly large so please send a PM regarding type-o's

A short question: why didn't Nanjo tell the others (Krauss, Natsuhi, Rudolf or Kyrie) right away that George were outside the whole night and tried to attack him?

A short comment: Asumu would not try to murder the whole family instead of targetting only Rudolf and Kyrie if her whole motive was Rudolf having affairs with Kyrie. And Shannon had little reason to believe she was Beatrice's daughter. Asumu also had little reason to know about the death of 1967 Beatrice since Rosa had little motive to tell anyone about it, which she tried to forget (and indeed forgot until seeing the witch's letter)


Still, it is a really comprehensive theory on EP3. You surely put a lot of efforts into it.

[luckyssol]

1st version (Feb. 2, 2010)
2nd version (Mar. 17, 2010)

Aug. 11, 2010
Thank you for taking the time to read the 3rd version of this theory. The Japanese text outside of the spoiler tags is not part of the theory so don't worry.
The new format was inspired by another awesome culprit analysis so please take the time to read that one as well.

If the image links are not working in this post then try the links in this post instead.

さて、始めましょうか。

Spoiler for Part 1, Observer:

Prior to episode 6, I came up with the idea that the mastermind is also an entity that can appear in the meta world but for the first five episodes has only been an observer regarding the meta world discussions. In that hypothesis, Bernkastel was approached by the mastermind at the end of episode 6 and was challenged to become the game master for episode 7. If Bernkastel represents blue truth then she may be dismissed alongside all other incorrect theories, depending on how much of the answer is revealed in episode 7.

We now know that such an observer does exist [1] and her name is Featherine Augustus Aurora. She also has the authority to appoint Bernkastel the game master for episode 7 [2]. For this reason, I believe that Featherine must be an important character. She has the authority to prevent Bernkastel, Lambdadelta, and even Beatrice from interfering with her observation of the game [3].

Ryukishi07 did something interesting in episode 6. He introduced the witch of theatergoing, Featherine, and in the same chapter he introduced her human form, Hachijou Tooya. If this new character is not just an observer and is important to the storyline then she must be a character we have some familiarity with from the beginning of the game. Those who have thoroughly analyzed this story should have gained familiarity with its author, who is also a character within the game itself. From the onset, we have been warned that this is how you play this game [4].

Originally Posted by Episode 5

Also, at the end of the 1st game, it was revealed that this tale was passed on to people in the future by that message bottle.

......Someone had written about this crime...this tale.

In other words, ......this tale is all part of a world which includes the personal opinions of an observer, namely, the person who wrote that message in a bottle.

In other words, the observer isn't God.
It's a human.

Therefore, there's no guarantee that this description is truly impartial.

By the end of the 1st game, it had already been made clear that we've broken the constant premise of the mystery genre: that the story itself must be seen through the eyes of God.

For that reason, it's possible to doubt even the observer, as well as the witnesses.

If I could've doubted this much, ......then no matter how many seemingly unsolvable displays of magic appeared, I wouldn't have had to blindly accept them and give up......

However, that begs the question: .........is it even possible to solve a tale written by an observer who isn't impartial?

この物語は、本当は誰の意志によって繰り返されているのだろうか。

Spoiler for Part 2, 07151129:

From the viewpoint of the 1998 world, no amount of research would lead to the discovery of the PIN number to access the secure vault. Yet the author of episode 3 knew about it. Eva was the only person to make it off the island alive and she wrote down the number 07151129 [5]. Eva trusted Okonogi [6] and could have passed the number to him.

In episode 6, Ange was brought to Hachijou Tooya’s home by Amakusa Juuza, a man hired by Okonogi [7]. Her memories were muddled and she could not remember how she got there. Did someone attempt to erase part of her memory? If so, what could it have been regarding? Hachijou said the reason she met with Ange was because she was impressed with her ability to decipher her pen name [8]. Why would Hachijou want to meet with Ange based on this? If someone did attempt to erase part of her memory was this what it was regarding?

If the purpose of the meeting was to confirm that Ange still retained the memory of how to decipher Hachijou’s pen name then was it Amakusa’s role to confirm that she did still know it? At the end of episode 6 it was implied that it had become Amakusa’s duty to kill Ange [9]. Was the ability to decipher Hachijou’s pen name the dangerous piece of information?

Or was Ange being used by Okonogi to locate Hachijou Tooya? If Okonogi believed that Hachijou knew the location of the gold what method could he have used to make the mysterious author come out of hiding? Perhaps, Ange was that method.

Itouikukuro Reigonamu. In Japanese this looks like: 伊藤幾九郎〇五七六. Ange was able to see through this pen name [10] by using the various different readings of the kanji to form numbers: 11019960576. This number is equal to 18 to the 8th power and in Japanese: １８の８乗. When this is written as十八のハチジョウ (Tooya no Hachijou) we get Hachijou Tooya.

In episode 4 there were several letters sent out to various family members of the victims of the Rokkenjima incident. However, none of the letters contained the name of a person. Only the number 07151129 [11]. Using this clue, this number may be an alias like the number 11019960576 from episode 6.

What can be done with this number? First, look at this quote from an interview with Ryukishi:

Originally Posted by Ryukishi

Irrespective of whether each number has a meaning, at least the eight numbers combined together has a certain significance. I can only say this: Just think of it as a PIN number. People who hold the key or the key card couldn't get into the safe without this sequence of numbers. That means, as long as you know this number sequence, it's possible to gain a large sum of money. Aside from that, since this 8-number sequence is used as an important PIN number, the numbers themselves must have some significance. Otherwise, those numbers themselves and the large sum of money...

Also, Nanjo suggested combining the eight numbers in episode 3 [12]. The sum of 0 + 7 + 1 + 5 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 9 is 26. Using the clue that 07151129 might be an alias and the clue to combine the numbers together:
Can 26 be linked to a person using a method similar to the one Ange used in episode 6 [10]?

-----

1. Start with a name of a character within the game
右代宮明日夢

2. Use the various different readings of the kanji to form numbers
うしろ３８　３８２６

3. Write down what this is equal to
後ろ３８　３８２６　＝　２６

-----

1. Start with a name of a character within the game
八城十八

2. Use the various different readings of the kanji to form numbers
８じょう１８

3. Write down what this is equal to
８上１８　＝　２６

-----

Next question; why arrange the numbers as 07151129? Another clue from the game is that 0715 forms Battler’s birthday [13]. If it’s a date then 1129 could be 11:29am or 11:29pm.

Kyrie’s ‘stillbirth’ occurred on this day. The significance of the number being arranged like this could be that it is the exact moment in time that Kyrie lost to a certain other character [14]...

伝説は胡散の実と共に隠されて…０７１５１１２９…

Spoiler for Part 3, Ushiromiya Asumu:

About Ushiromiya Asumu

• Asumu probably appeared to most people as a woman who was devoted to her family much like Natsuhi [15].
• She was more intelligent and cunning than Kyrie when it comes to affairs of the heart [16]. There was nothing unusual about how she fought with Kyrie for Rudolf. However, if Asumu stole Kyrie’s baby and raised him as her own then she can’t be considered a good person or even a rational person. This is strongly hinted to have occurred since Ushiromiya Battler is not Ushiromiya Asumu's son and a baby swap has been hinted at as well [14].
• What Asumu had done to win Rudolf coupled with the fact that she started out as a commoner [17] makes it likely that she was motivated by the riches of marrying into a wealthy family. Even Eva, who was born into the wealthy Ushiromiya family and always desired to become the successor to the head, probably wouldn’t have gone to such extreme lengths.
• Asumu had won over Kyrie but Kyrie did not give up. Rudolf cheated on Asumu and Kyrie got pregnant [18]. One can imagine how Asumu would react to Kyrie using the same method that she had to win Rudolf back. Since Rudolf was cheating on her it probably became clear to Asumu that he was no longer on her side. At that point, Asumu probably knew that it would soon be revealed that Battler was not her real son by Rudolf [19]. At least Rosa still had Maria after her husband left her. What would Asumu be left with?

The love trial of episode 6 reflects Asumu’s life experience. Only one couple can reach the miracle of love.

The lack of discussion regarding Asumu’s death circumstances serves as a clue that something is amiss. The author of the stories may be withholding this vital information and it could be a clue regarding the true identity of the author. She was too young to have died a natural death. Battler’s sin occurring around the same time as her reported death is also suspicious.

Battler used to have feelings for Shannon [20]. Shannon remembered exactly how Battler was and what he used to say to her [21] so she probably had feelings for him as well. However, Shannon believed that she was furniture and needed the miracle of magic to attain love [22]. Battler made Shannon feel love for the first time but left the promise of returning to her unfulfilled. This was his sin and it fits with the theme “without love it cannot be seen”.

Asumu had a good relationship with Battler and probably knew about his feelings for Shannon. Asumu also used to talk with Shannon [23]. Asumu probably knew about how Shannon viewed herself as furniture and about her feelings for Battler.

When Kyrie became pregnant if Asumu felt that she was going to lose her family she may have taken extreme measures again just as she did when she stole Kyrie’s child. She could have faked her death and used Shannon to spy on the head family to swindle them for their money. Given the knowledge that Asumu probably had of Battler and Shannon’s relationship it would not be difficult to manipulate her. Asumu has been shown to be a very cunning manipulator when it comes to relationships [16]. Also, the author of the later episodes seems to be a master of the art of faking one’s death. It is also suspicious that the head family began to experience financial problems shortly after Asumu’s reported death.

The epitaph was Kinzo’s will but it is likely that Shannon had a hand in writing that will [24]. The treasures promised at the end of epitaph match the motives of Asumu and Shannon. The riddle of the epitaph which gives motive to the culprit can be considered Rule Z. Asumu stole Kyrie’s child to ensure that she would rise from a commoner to a wife married into a wealthy family. Forcing the family to locate the hidden gold and then swindling them for more money would be an ultimate prize. Shannon believed she was furniture and also believed that all furniture could become human in the golden land [25]. From Shannon’s view, completing the epitaph ritual would grant humanity for both Kanon and herself. That is one possible motive to go along with the plan.

However, in the end, there was a betrayal on both sides.

Shannon believed that a golden brooch granted her the magic to attain love and no longer needed reach the golden land to become human[26]. She no longer needed to complete the epitaph ritual. She had already written down everything that had been planned in two separate message bottles and threw them out to sea. She gave Maria the credit for the tales because they were based on Maria’s way of thinking.

Originally Posted by Maria’s way of thinking

Maria onee-chan’s way of thinking really is unusual. According to her, from the beginning, a witch had resided in that place called a school. No, she says that anywhere that a lot of people gather will most certainly have a witch residing there.

The witch tries to steal the students’ souls through death by disease or accidents. Apparently, she sometimes also corrupts the souls, leading them down that path of evil. She says that an angel came, not content to let that happen.

“And the angel, she tried to finish off that witch. But the witch was powerful, and the fight took seven days and seven nights, but even then, it still wasn’t finished. The tired out witch asked for a truce, and proposed this.”

“I’ve heard this before. ‘Until now, I have made half of the students in the class become sick or injured. But in exchange, I have protected the remaining half of the students from sickness and injury. Therefore, if one member of the class becomes a sacrifice to me and is made into the ‘bullied kid’, I shall protect all of the other students from sickness and injury’ ...wasn’t it?”

“Uu-. The angel thought about it. Compared to half the class meeting with misfortune, having only one person be unfortunate would be much better. Then, the witch said that she would protect the safety of all the other students, using her powerful magic.”

“If there are 40 students in a class and the 20 victims are shrunk down to 1, then 19 people are saved. It actually is a reasonable proposition.”

I wonder if this fairy tale has some kind of motif. If it’s a creation of Maria onee-chan, a nine year old girl, that would be pretty impressive.

“The angel decided to accept that proposal. So, through the single sacrifice, 19 people were saved. So Maria’s role is important. The witch is protecting 19 people.”

“Because we become sacrifices? Well, I don’t remember ever being thanked by those 19 people.”

Maria onee-chan’s idea was too compassionate. The misfortune of my and her situations are very similar. And yet, maybe you could say that because of a small difference in our way of thinking, there’s a difference in how peaceful our hearts are.

In Shannon’s stories Beatrice was protecting the family by taking the blame for the entire incident. Beatrice is the embodiment of this rule [27]. This can be considered Rule Y.

Shannon also took all the money that had been swindled from the head family and sent it all back to all the families [28]. Shannon probably selected October 3rd [29] to send the letters because she planned on the family conference being her last day of work. She wrote Asumu’s alias ‘07151129’ on the letters which was also the PIN to access the secure bank vault.

The way Battler celebrated with everyone at the end of the sixth game makes me believe that none of them committed any murder on Rokkenjima’s real world. After Battler learned the truth and when he became the game master he didn’t commit any murders to prove he understood Beatrice’s game. He may have been trying to show that no murders occurred on Rokkenjima’s real world other than the bomb at the very end. A piece cannot make a move outside of its own nature. Yet it seems to be within all the pieces nature to fake their deaths.

If someone was truly behind the head family’s financial trouble and wanted to erase all evidence of it then what measures could be taken? Planting a bomb to blow up the island where the head family lives is not a rational solution. However, consider what Eva said in episode 1. It takes seven years for a person who has gone missing to be declared legally dead [30]. If Asumu wanted to deceive the family by faking her death then it may have been part of her plan to keep up the deception for six years. On the seventh year, the entire family would be already be dead by the bomb. She would no longer need to continue the deception and could release new information along with the disaster indicating that Asumu’s corpse was actually never found six years prior. It’s not likely that there would be an investigation of this since the death of the entire family would take the spotlight. Since seven years would have already passed she would be declared legally dead and not have to worry about the deception any longer. Not only would blowing up the family cover up the revelation that her corpse was actually missing, she would gain the ultimate revenge on Rudolf for his betrayal.

Another possible hint that Asumu was behind the bomb was the fact that Ange was the only one left behind. If Asumu was behind the bomb and also caused Ange to become ill then Kyrie’s child was doomed to a miserable life without her family. The bomb which kills everyone at the end of each episode regardless of what events occur can be considered Rule X.

Two major things that could have gone wrong for Asumu:

• Battler actually showed up at the family conference.
• The money that had been swindled from the head family was all gone because it had already been sent back to all the families.

She was reduced to nothing again. However, she later became an author who never appeared in public [31] since she was supposed to be dead. What did she write? She arrogantly wrote and profited off of this tale believing that no one would solve the mystery.

右代宮明日夢の無念は、誰が晴らすんですか。

Spoiler for Part 4, Author Analysis:

Now let’s begin a brief analysis of the authors of this story. There is a clear distinction between how the characters of this story are portrayed in the first two episodes versus the rest of the episodes.

First of all, the author of the fourth episode wanted to portray Kyrie’s child as one of the most miserable humans on the face of the earth.

Second, the author doesn’t seem to have any desire to reveal any details of Asumu’s death.

Third, Kyrie is described to have been burning with envy for 18 years and even commented that she would be envious of Asumu for the rest of her life and all eternity [32].

Next, Episode 1 was a story based on a message in a bottle that a character within the game wrote [33]. The author chose a quote from Higurashi no naku koro ni, where the mother of the main character of the story described the method of the perfect crime [34]. Why did the author choose to quote the mother of the main character of that story? Remember that the message in a bottle author wanted the truth to be discovered [35] and hints were intentionally left throughout the story.

Battler liked to read mystery novels. It’s been suggested that various aspects of his behavior were greatly influenced by the mother that raised him [36]. Did he pick up that hobby from the mother who raised him?

Neither of the first two episodes portrayed any of the mothers as murderers or even with an evil intent to kill. This changed from the third episode onward.

• Consider the story that Natsuhi was forced to reveal which she had been hiding as a family secret [37]. According to Natsuhi, this occurred... 19 years ago. Natsuhi was portrayed as the murderer of the servant and the baby who fell off a cliff and died on Rokkenjima. Also, Episode 4 has convinced everyone that she was just delusional all along with the revelation that Kinzo was dead before the start of any game.
• Now consider Rosa’s story [38]. Both stories occurred around the same time and end with death by falling off a cliff. However, there are some inconsistencies. Rosa said her mother was on the island at that time but Natsuhi did not. Rosa never mentioned any baby in her story but she was portrayed as being responsible for the death of Beatrice. Consider the difference between the scenes where Rosa was tortured in episode 2 [39] and in episode 4 [40].
• There was no ambiguity regarding Eva. The author of the third episode just simply wrote that Eva was the one who killed Battler [41].
• Kyrie was portrayed as having an evil intent to kill [42].

What about the other characters? None are really portrayed as murderers. So the author of EP1 & EP2 wants to portray Beatrice as the culprit but the author of EP3 and beyond wants to hint at a human culprit.

The author of EP1 & EP2 is likely to be Shannon. In episode 2, she was the only one present in a several scenes which took place prior to October 4th. She believed in magic [22] and claimed to be able to speak with Beatrice [43].

The author of the later episodes seems to be sending a message that fake deaths are an important to this story.

The author of later episodes knows the family's deepest secrets:

• Beatrice who was held captive in Kuwadorian.
• The incident where Beatrice fell off the cliff.
• Battler’s birth circumstances.
• Kyrie’s story from 18 years in the past.
• The truth about Kinzo’s death.

How could the author have known about all of this? She had to have been close to the family at that time. But EP3 was written well after the incident that killed off the entire family. So who was left?

Even though Shannon wrote the first two episodes, I can’t believe that she is the author of the later episodes due to all secrets originating from a time before Shannon was even born.

At the end of 3rd episode everyone who was close to the family who had died was in golden land, but where was Asumu? Due to everything listed above and this, I have a good idea who the author is. Asumu didn’t appear in the golden land with everyone else because she was not dead.

If Asumu is Hachijou why didn’t Ange recognize her? It was revealed that Ange had never seen a single photo of Asumu. All of the pictures of her were removed from Rudolf’s home and sent to her parent’s home [44].

Also, the condescending tone [45] that Hachijou uses when speaking to Kyrie’s child is another clue.

If the 07151129 theory is true then this it is another clue. However, it is a very difficult one to find in this story.

Bernkastel wrote a letter to someone who was suffering from an illness. This letter was released as an extra TIP by Ryukishi during the time of the question arc episodes. Due to Bernkastel’s familiarity with Featherine from the past and the described illness [46] it’s clear that Bernkastel was writing to her in the extra TIP. Ryukishi had planned this character from the beginning.

And Bernkastel’s first words to her were very interesting [47]. “So, you’ve come back to life...”

紅茶を飲むなら、バケモノ同士に限ります。

<See you in hell>

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by Ssol

If you read my theory I explain how you can get Asumu from 07151129. Also, Asumu uses no disguises in person in my theory.

What do the Kanji for 1129 mean to you for the number 07151129?

Well I did look at it. I don't understand Japanese though so I don't understand your theory on the number. But I guess to you that number is a name or a title used to threaten people? That's a lot easier for me to understand

If somebody could help me translate what you said that would help a lot. Are you guys using some kind of program?

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by Antera Caramichael

The 15 people mentioned are dead
Nanjo was killed by another person
People die when they are dead!
I already proclaimed in red at the time that there were no suicides!!

These are samples^^
After you can deny the red truths but....

Really, what's more likely is that the First Twilight deaths are always intended to be a game, but... someone decides to take advantage of that.

Or perhaps the 'game' participants are simply fooled into putting themselves into a vulnerable position, where they can easily be killed.

[luckyssol]

http://freetexthost.com/f1ms5sxq0p

[Marion]

As far as ruling people out I did so for the following people:

Battler (confirmed in red, bad writing)
Maria (too young and if she is involved it's only because she gets fooled by Beatrice)
Natsuhi (confirmed in red EP 5)*
Krauss (confirmed in red EP 5)*
Eva (red herring)
Gohda (not involved in the secrets of the family and out of everyone I can never picture him murdering. Too nice, albeit a bit of a showoff)
Rudolf (he might be a jackass when it comes to dealing with women, but he does care about his family deeply. Not to mention dying on the first twilight 3 times out of the 4 question arcs)
Rosa (she only survived past the 2nd twilight once. If she's the culprit it would make no sense)
Genji + Kumasawa (the entire Ronove and Virgilia connection just makes me suspect them less. But even then I can't see Genji murdering the family - it's the same case with Natsuhi. Both are extremely loyal to the family and I don't see them willing to kill, even on order. I doubt Kumasawa can take on gauntlets like Krauss or Rudolf either.)
Kinzo (dead)

*: Although it never said they were out for all games I just don't see it. Natsuhi is clearly devoted to the family and Krauss just seems a bit slow and a nice guy under the chauvinist exterior.

Which leaves:
Jessica, George, Hideyoshi, Kyrie, Shannon, Nanjo and Kanon.

Now lets break these guys down:

Spoiler for Breakdown:

Jessica is suspicious if you look at the text close enough, but at the same time consider this: She always has an alibi. EP 1 she is constantly with Battler - only time she is unaccounted for is when she's with Nanjo and an apparently dying Kanon. EP 2 she dies early on - unless you can think of a reasonable way to fake having a stake lodged in your back. EP 3 she is, again, always with Battler. EP 4 is the only time she does not have a reputable alibi. You are also lacking motive with her (and no, not liking your parents is not a motive to kill everyone in the family)

Even if George is suspicious I can't see him murdering everyone - only those who oppose his relationship to Shannon. The only one who seems to be in that position is Eva. Maybe Hideyoshi, but at the same time he doesn't seem to say anything about it. He always says George is a man and needs to make his own choices, so I think he would be okay with it (as long as he gets grandchildren ).

Hideyoshi, while not doing anything of major importance the entire game, seems to be a pretty nice guy in general. Considering he was happy being included in the Ushiromiya family I don't see why he would want to personally destroy his new family, after he talks about how much he likes having big families.

Shannon and Kanon are fairly suspicious on the other hand, along with Nanjo (because doctor is always suspicious). Then you have Kyrie left - even though she died early on in EP 1 and 2, I don't think you can count her out. EP 6 doesn't count.

Spoiler for Big wall of text/Higurashi end spoilers/EP 6 spoilers:

Now I disagree with chronotrig on Kyrie being like a 2nd Takano. Takano was in no way completely trusted by the cast and has been beyond suspicious since Watanagashi-hen, with the corpse that was dead since the festival. We were even told Hanyuu disliked her, so you knew something was up by that alone.

Kyrie, on the other hand, has only raised major suspicions in EP 3 and 4. And unlike Takano, Kyrie is very trusted. She's Battler's stepmother - along with his cousins I doubt Battler would ever suspect his parents before anybody else.

EP 6 especially could be telling: Kyrie fought Jessica with a closed room. She literally created a closed room and used it against Jessica - Ronove even said the room fell under Beatrice's Closed Room definition from EP 3.

Shkannon can explain all the murders, but the end of EP 6 hints that if anything they're just a pawn used by the true culprit.

Here are major things against Kyrie:
1) Nanjo's death in EP 3 had to have been done by one of people not declared deceased at that point. Those people are Rudolf, George, Kyrie, Hideyoshi, Krauss and Natsuhi.

Lets count Rudolf out because you can't fake a head wound like that. Krauss and Natsuhi were too far and were out a knee and an ankle, so I say we count them out as well. If George was alive then Eva would have noticed - Battler also clearly saw the wound.

You're only left with Hideyoshi and Kyrie. But at the same time it's very likely the one who killed Nanjo also killed George beforehand. Hideyoshi would never kill his son - you're only left with Kyrie.

2) The cigarette bud that Kyrie had in her pocket, along with the boat ticket, an anime only hint but still telling. If she went on the ferry then why did she have that ticket with her?

3) Beatrice sent a letter to Rudolf's address, which Ange received. Now this letter was apparently only given out to the families of the survivors. If Ange had gone with the family however that would mean she couldn't receive a letter. This means the person who sent out the letters had to of known that Ange would not attend. You only have Battler, Rudolf and Kyrie in this case.

4) Ange was given Mammon's stake in EP 4. According to Hachijou EP 4's 1998 is a continuation of the EP 3 world. Kyrie was gouged with Mammon in EP 3.

5) If Kyrie felt threatened then she would very easily kill. And if Rudolf was in trouble she would definietly protect him. So lets propose this: Kyrie only murders when either her life or Rudolf's life is threatened. Considering she prepared a knife to murder Asumu with its clear enough she isn't above murdering to get ahead.

[Antera Caramichael]

Originally Posted by Judoh

The only other problem I see with the Knox's rules with a Kasumi or Asumu culprit theory is

Knox's 10th- It is forbidden for a character to disguise themselves as another without any clues.

This is the only problem, but if you assume the author will present clues for this later in the story there isn't a contradiction. The problem remains though that if no clues are presented in the story than it doesn't work.

Also maybe Kasumi wouldn't be considered as being mentioned in the early part of the story becuase her first appearance comes in the 1998 part of episode 4. Maybe you have to be mentioned in episode 1 or the beginning of any episode to be a culprit.

Hypothetically you could make a red like this

Dlanor: This is UNFORTUNATE for you!! Sadera Kasumi has never been MENTIONED by anyone on October of 1986 therefore by Knox's rules she cannot be the culprit!!!

Several answers:

1= The basic but coward^^: It was never stated in red that "Knox Rules apply to the first, second, third or fourth games", or even any games.

2= The twisted: Kasumi was here since the begining! But like I said, at that time she was not Kasumi but "Kyrie." Considering the hints, the presence of Evatrice, the Sumadera's family and their interest on Ange as well as their hate against Kyrie and the Ushiromiya Family are enough to form a theory as them as the masterminds and Kasumi the tool.

[Jan-Poo]

the problem I see with it is that

Due to your sin, a great many humans on this island die.
No one escapes, all die.

Which means that whoever is on the island must die, however Kasumi is well alive in EP4.

Although you might think this looks like a logic error since Eva did survive in EP3.................................

[Tyabann]

There's a lot of little inconsistencies like that in Umineko if you're looking for them, although the way that second line is used reminds me of Beatrice's red laughter and Dlanor's GREAT EQUALIZER IS THE DEATH. That is, it's just done for emphasis and not really indicative of anything.

...Then again, you could argue that Eva never really did escape from (the spectre of) Rokkenjima, and the buildup of stress did eventually kill her.

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

the problem I see with it is that

Due to your sin, a great many humans on this island die.
No one escapes, all die.

Which means that whoever is on the island must die, however Kasumi is well alive in EP4.

Although you might think this looks like a logic error since Eva did survive in EP3.................................

As Marion said a few posts above, Hachijou said that 1998 is a continuation of the EP3 world. Eva died in 1998. Therefore, no one survived to the end of the story.

[Judoh]

Well I think it's just easier to beleive that Kyrie herself is the culprit who committed the murders rather than her sister. ( There are many ways to get around the first twilights in episode 1 and 2.) I think for example that Rudolf would be able to tell the difference between the two. Battler MIGHT not be able to, but then again Kyrie is described as being like an older sister to him so maybe he could see through it too.

It's a nice theory, but I don't want to beleive it unless there are clues later that people are dressing up as other people. Same with Asumu. We don't know if she's alive in 1986, and even if she was nobody would think of it when solving the mystery. An off island mastermind to destroy the family sounds more plausible than characters masquerading as each other after ep 5 at least, but besides episode 5 I don't see a lot of foreshadowing for it.

I think Kyrie makes at least more sense because for one thing she's the only character that has reds (besides Hideyoshi) that suggests that she murdered people. Which I thought was kind of telling.

she claimed that they should not leave the guesthouse

[And yet, she herself] suggested that they leave the guesthouse to get food

the reason she changed her mind was not told to anyone, nor was it written down

Until the last instant before she died, Kyrie preserved her pattern of behavior which states 'not going to get food=not going to the mansion'

And if you think about it in mysteries the solution seems obvious once you figure it out and there is a lot of foreshadowing for Kyrie with her lines about a woman's envy and sometimes hating Battler. In some ways Kyrie culprit theory just makes sense. It's not like other people murdering people isn't possible, but I think she's a pretty good bet. I don't want to rule Rosa out either just yet... I don't think her not living past the so and so twilights most of the time is a good excuse if your going to rule out Rosa. If your going by that logic Kyrie isn't possible either, and Kyrie is also a mother too. So I still think you can get around that and have them as culprits.