2014-03-01, 21:26 | Link #21 | |
今宵の虎徹は血に飢えている
Join Date: Jan 2009
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2014-03-02, 04:38 | Link #23 | |
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2014-03-02, 05:39 | Link #25 |
temporary safeguard
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Germany
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From the spill of U.S. diplomatic cables via Wikileaks, here are some interesting bits that seem to predict the current situation.
The Wikileaks cables that anticipated the russian invasion of the crimea This outcome seems to have been in the making for quite some time, which would explain the fast reaction from Russia. On the other hand, with information like this and looking at what happened in Georgia, it shouldn't have come as a surprise to any western leaders either. |
2014-03-02, 05:59 | Link #27 |
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Location: Moscow, RU
Age: 35
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2014-03-02, 06:06 | Link #28 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2007
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I think the Ukraine mess is almost your text book proxy-war, except no war has started yet. This follows the post-cold-war trend of NATO pushing its sphere influence into the the former eastern block, and in this case, right onto Russia's door step. The protest were instigated, made use of, or supported by the west. No matter whichever choice of word fits your point of view, the goal is crystal clear, to usurp Ukraine from the influence of Russia and install a pro-western government.
However, it is quite a miscalculation (remember the F**K EU quote?) since having a buffer zone between big powers is actually a lot more desirable than direct confrontations. There is a certain determination and tolerance for pain on the Russian side since their core interest is at risk. The pundits predicting no Russian intervention underestimated this determination. On the other hand, Ukraine is just something to gain for NATO. They get it, it is all good. If not, the mess is left with the Ukraine, even some bordering nations. They will pay some billions of dollars, but no other risks will be taken. That's why you see all these words are flying toward the wall. Maybe some of them will stick. Who knows. Interestingly, Putin already explained the risk of Ukraine during a 2008 speech to NATO. Quote:
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2014-03-02, 06:23 | Link #29 |
Logician and Romantic
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Within my mind
Age: 43
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It's not a proxy war if you have your actual troops on the ground. Russian soldiers are in Ukraine, so this is NOT a proxy war. If this is a proxy war we would be better off. But since Putin decided he is going to send his actual citizens to invade, this isn't proxy anymore; either his troops leave, or we have an actual hot war in our hands.
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2014-03-02, 06:51 | Link #30 | |
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Join Date: May 2007
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As for the future scenario, I think Ukraine can pretty much say goodbye to Crimea unless they regain it as a scotched ground after the fire of war. The eastern Ukraine is a different matter, you have at least three options, (1) they stay in Ukraine but with great autonomy; (2)they form another independent state; (3) they get absorbed into Russia. I think option (1) is the likely course, since it is kind of compromise. Option (2) is just creating a north/south Korea or Vietnam situation, with infinite trouble down the road. Option (3) might be too bold even for Putin. Of course, this is assuming that Russia have the upper hand, which they certainly do at the moment. If the western side has the upper hand (by whichever way), expect a purge in eastern Ukraine. If Mao Zedong has ever said anything correct, he has the following cruel message: revolution is not about inviting guests and sharing food.
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Last edited by Tom Bombadil; 2014-03-02 at 07:03. |
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2014-03-02, 07:01 | Link #31 |
Valkyrie pilot
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Rouen, France
Age: 41
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Another view of the "mass resigning" of ukrainian troops in Crimea.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A1Q1E820140302 |
2014-03-02, 09:26 | Link #32 |
Franco's Phalanx is next!
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Little England, Europe and Asia
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There is no way that Ukraine can remain united, both linguistic groups are supporting fascists and corrupt businessmen with conflicting interests. At best, the south-west will end up as Transnistria and Abkhazia. At worst, there will be a prolonged civil war, like in Yugoslavia. In any case, again many people will die and a lot more plunged into poverty so very few in Russia or the US and Germany can get a little richer.
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2014-03-02, 12:33 | Link #33 |
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Age: 33
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Commander of the Ukrainian navy defects and swears allegiance to people of Crimea
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zt9efnLV4UY
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2014-03-02, 12:58 | Link #34 | |
Sensei, aishite imasu
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Hong Kong Shatterdome
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2014-03-02, 13:06 | Link #35 | ||
Not Enough Sleep
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Age: 48
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2014-03-02, 13:23 | Link #36 |
Logician and Romantic
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Within my mind
Age: 43
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I am not sure what you want him to say. Most in his country admit that America got into trouble doing occupations, so it's not like he is pretending that never happened. He is merely speaking for those who forced him to cancel the bombing of Syria.
I mean, what else do you want him to say? Support Putin?
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2014-03-02, 13:23 | Link #37 | |
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Age: 33
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2014-03-02, 13:39 | Link #38 |
Logician and Romantic
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Within my mind
Age: 43
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Maybe Ukraine should ask the former ruler where all the money has gone. Oh, right, he is under Russian protection. No point mocking their finances when one of the people who sucked up the money is still being defended.
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2014-03-02, 13:48 | Link #40 |
Me, An Intellectual
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: UK
Age: 33
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As far as I'm aware of, the only thing the West has actually done is try to facilitate a compromise between Yanukovich and the opposition, and when that didn't work they simply gave diplomatic support the people who were now effectively in power.
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