2023-06-24, 05:13 | Link #1381 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Having Wagner as a mobile reserve would definitely be a huge asset in the war.
But there's way more at stake right now. If the southern headquarters remain in shutdown, that means no air sorties, no reserve deployments, and total chaos in the chain of command, which was already compromised to begin with. I don't see how the Russians can hold the line against Ukrainian counteroffensive in these conditions. Also, Belgorod is likely to escalate again. Spoiler for screencap:
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2023-06-24, 05:39 | Link #1384 |
books-eater youkai
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Betweem wisdom and insanity
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Has it been confirmed? I did read somewhere than the contracts might had different time condition depending of the sentence the convicts had, and given the reputation of the Wagner group, I would suspect them to not respect their part of those contract.
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2023-06-24, 05:40 | Link #1385 | |
Sleepy Lurker
Graphic Designer
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Nun'yabiznehz
Age: 38
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Wagner apparently bypassed Voronezh, where a fuel explosion took place right after a Ka-52 flyby.
Aside from scenes of solidarity in Rostov, the Russian population as a whole seems rather apathetic to it all. Could be it still hasn't hit them yet. @ganbaru - this is what a confirmed Russian forum member of TankNet said on the matter: Quote:
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Last edited by Renegade334; 2023-06-24 at 05:56. |
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2023-06-24, 07:09 | Link #1391 | |
Sleepy Lurker
Graphic Designer
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Nun'yabiznehz
Age: 38
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Quote:
...Or afraid of any Stalinian-like purges that might follow soon thereafter...because Putin will certainly not be playing nicely anymore, should he pull through this (and there is a good chance he will). Heck, he could even use this development as an excuse to launch his full-scale mobilization and do away with anyone he even remotely considers recalcitrant or an eyesore...like, say, Peskov who rather recently boasted that...umm...his own son was...uh, fighting for...Wagner. (aaaawkward!) But who knows. Map of Wagner's purported progress towards Moscow: <--- Click to enlarge At this rate, we should start seeing things happening within 16-24h. Either it'll be bloody or one-sided or absolutely ridiculous...or it'll be a giant nothing burger. Rybar (AKA Mikhail Zvinchuk, a RU milblogger) has a more detailed map of how Wagner is moving and sidestepping the checkpoints: <--- Click to enlarge At Voronezh, the VKS blew up an oil depot to prevent it from falling into Wagner's hands: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...44902100467713 Chechens on their way to Rostov-on-Don: https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/...68838162972672 They're going, but they're going slowly because - or so they claim - their vehicles are worn down by constant fighting in Ukraine and are thus dogged by technical issues. Aaaaaand Oryx is opening a whole new tracker: https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/st...47501658845184 Meanwhile, in Ukraine: Spoiler:
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Last edited by Renegade334; 2023-06-24 at 07:30. |
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2023-06-24, 08:00 | Link #1392 |
ARCAM Spriggan agent
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https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/s...80337816285186
OSINT technical posted a photo of Russian troops creating sandbag fortification with Russian politsiya keeping an eye out. ---- https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...51944039145474 Not sure on this moment. Civilians are helping Wagner contractors by giving them food/water. They didn't stop them.
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Last edited by Yu Ominae; 2023-06-24 at 08:12. |
2023-06-24, 08:58 | Link #1393 |
Sleepy Lurker
Graphic Designer
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Nun'yabiznehz
Age: 38
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Shots fired again:
https://twitter.com/WarMach18898344/...57589920399360 ...Or so it is claimed. That didn't look like a military truck. But there are more and more reports of helicopters being sent to harass and stall Wagner before they can reach Moscow.
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2023-06-24, 09:21 | Link #1394 |
ARCAM Spriggan agent
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Got some long twitter chains to read. IMHO very good ones.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/stat...38798691115009 This one explained that Wagner contractors said their goodbyes to their families and told them to keep an eye on the news. ---- https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/stat...00870947254273 This one explained the "chaos" within the Ministry of Internal Affairs. According to Telegram posts, the MIA's personnel were too drunk to respond to Wagner intrusions on a Friday night. Many Russian LEOs are kinda nervous on confronting Wagner contractors should there be a firefight. Especially those assigned to work in Rostov. Gerasimov fled when he heard Wagner contractors were already in the downtown area.
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2023-06-24, 09:25 | Link #1395 |
Komrades of Kitamura Kou
Join Date: Jul 2004
Age: 39
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It's starting to look like what's happening are delaying tactics on Wagner's approach to Moscow. You'd think that the army would stop them at all costs, but now people are making it look like a PMC is going to more or less succeed where Napoleon and Hitler failed.
So the question is whether the Russian army is plainly and consciously NOT attempting to stop them, or perhaps because they aren't able to. Whichever answer is correct speaks volumes on the stat of the Russian army.
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2023-06-24, 09:39 | Link #1396 |
ARCAM Spriggan agent
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https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...g_a_member_of/
Translated statement of a VDV paratrooper who joined Wagner 'cause he's pissed at what Russian MOD's doing. He hates the Kadyrov with a passion. ---- https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...proaching_the/ People in Rostov are welcoming Wagner in the city. The contractors are happy to see this.
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Last edited by Yu Ominae; 2023-06-24 at 10:13. |
2023-06-24, 10:29 | Link #1397 |
Sleepy Lurker
Graphic Designer
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Nun'yabiznehz
Age: 38
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^--- There are also reports of Rostov residents approaching Wagnerites shortly after Putin's broadcast, to berate them and exhort them to stop what they're doing.
Plenty of claims from both sides, but I've yet to see something that is critical to all coups and the main guarantor of their success: widespread popular support. So far, the main mood is apathy and mild anxiety, but not craze and fervor. The thing is: when the population doesn't mobilize, those coups tend to fail...which is what happened in Turkey in 2016.
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2023-06-24, 12:52 | Link #1399 | |||
Sleepy Lurker
Graphic Designer
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Nun'yabiznehz
Age: 38
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Unconfirmed for now -- take this with an entire salt mine:
Putin has been using Lukashenko to negotiate a cessation of hostilities and return to the status quo ante with Prigozhin. Some Telegram accounts claim the negotiations were unsuccessful, while others proclaim that they were actually successful, and the Wagner columns will consequently be turning around. Given that there were casualties in this hoopla, and the personalities of the individuals (Prigozhin, Shoigu, Putin) in question, I doubt there will be a status quo ante. At all. Not after crossing the Rubicon and setting a very dangerous precedent. Very weird two days, to say the least. EDIT: https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...-23/index.html Quote:
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Last edited by Renegade334; 2023-06-24 at 13:38. |
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2023-06-24, 16:16 | Link #1400 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Wow. In mother Russia, even the coup attempts are fake! I guess.
You would think that it's also a dangerous game, to just go back and pretend nothing has happened. These kinds of incidents are gradually radicalizing Russians, because there have been questions raised about the government's legitimacy, and about the justifications for this war.
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Last edited by Jaden; 2023-06-24 at 16:41. |
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