AnimeSuki Forums

Sabaku Kyu · 2013-03-29, 13:43

My personal stance on nukes is "never say never". Frankly, the reaction to this whole thing seems kind of complacent. The American military is too big. The NK weapons program is too backward...is it really that simple? NK must realize most experts believe they don't have the capability to put a nuclear payload on a missile yet the threats continue to escalate. What's the game here?

I think flying B-2 stealth bombers near the DMZ was kind of a needless provocation. It's one thing for the US to stand its ground-- that was already accomplished by continuing the joint exercises with SK as usual. But the US flies bombers and now NK says it's ready to light the fuse. If we continue to push a desperate, backwards nation into a corner, at some point it will face either making good on its threats or look incredibly weak in front of the world. I'm not sure it's worth the risk putting them in the position to make that choice if it can be avoided.

A calm, steady approach is needed. Conduct and finish the military exercises in SK with no more excessive displays of military strength. Continue to limit aid and rations. Make more efforts to convince China that NK is a serious risk to their prosperity. Impose the sanctions, but maybe increase incentives to adhere to them. However, threatening NK with a "bigger stick" (even in purely defensive manner) will probably cause things to get out of control.

Ithekro · 2013-03-29, 14:17

Unless the idea is to push them into the corner to strike first. It was sort of the idea people have about how the Japanese struck at the Americans at Pearl Harbor after being backed into a corner by the Americans over the Japanese invasion of China.

mangamuscle · 2013-03-29, 16:43

KiraYamatoFan · 2013-03-29, 17:36

I don't see why we should feel outraged with those B-2s appearing in the picture and call that provocation when NK already got away too many times with bloody murder. Yes, you get it right: BLOODY MURDER! The cold hard truth may be too much to take for a 28-year-old fat walrus, but judgement day is coming for him, and it is about time he pays and goes down the same way as Milosevic (Boy! I hated this man's guts back then) if not as Ceaucescu.

Qikz · 2013-03-29, 17:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ithekro

Unless the idea is to push them into the corner to strike first. It was sort of the idea people have about how the Japanese struck at the Americans at Pearl Harbor after being backed into a corner by the Americans over the Japanese invasion of China.

Wasn't one of the main reasons behind Japan striking Pearl Harbour due to how the Americans blocked their oil supplies or something?

Ithekro · 2013-03-29, 18:16

Trade embargo on oil due to the Japanese invasion of China (threatened US interests there). Thus the Japanese needed oil to fuel their ships, airplanes, and other things to progress in China. They tried the Soviets first and after a few battles decided that wasn't a good idea. That left Indonesia. But the then US Territory of the Philippines was between Japan and Indonesia (the Dutch East Indies)...plus the Dutch and British wouldn't be happy about it anyway, and the Americans wouldn't like it either. So do something daring, strike the recently redeployed Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor (they'd only been there a year or two in full force). A large blow was hoped to bring the Americans to the table to keep them from interfering with the Japanese, plus take out the major striking force of the US Pacific Fleet (including he carriers).

But the Japanese miscalculated. Americans don't care for sneak attacks (it kind of pisses them off). The Japanese typist for the Ultimatum was slow as molassas (though that was still not a declaration of war, so the "sneak attack" would still be a sneak attack even if they US had an hour to prepare.) And they missed the US carriers (primary targets), while also not hitting the US oil storage tanks or submarine docks at Pearl. All those things came to bit them within a year.

What the North Koreans do will probably also be discussed in history books (the mistakes they made most likely), if they actaully try something.

NoemiChan · 2013-03-29, 18:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by Qikz

Wasn't one of the main reasons behind Japan striking Pearl Harbour due to how the Americans blocked their oil supplies or something?

They want the Philippines who is under US back then. Striking direct will give America an advantage due to it's navy... so they attack Pearl Harbor first to paralyze her temporarily giving here time to prepare.

Sumeragi · 2013-03-29, 18:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by GenjiChan

They want the Philippines who is under US back then.

Well, not exactly. Controlling the Philippines was a second consideration. It was because the US could potentially choke off any Japanese moves against the British Empire and the Dutch East Indies that the invasion of the Philippines was considered.

NoemiChan · 2013-03-29, 18:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

Well, not exactly. Controlling the Philippines was a second consideration. It was because the US could potentially choke off any Japanese moves against the British Empire and the Dutch East Indies that the invasion of the Philippines was considered.

Well, could be but the Philippine is a strategic location (as the US currently see her up until now). Japan could strike anywhere from the Philippines.

JokerD · 2013-03-29, 19:23

Quote:

Originally Posted by GenjiChan

Well, could be but the Philippine is a strategic location (as the US currently see her up until now). Japan could strike anywhere from the Philippines.

Not really, the oil and rubber was under British control in Malaya and Borneo, Philippines was just in between Japan and them. Don't expect the US to just let the Japanese fleet through to attack her allies did you?

Ithekro · 2013-03-29, 19:27

US Plan Orange (the US plans for combating Japan) was based around the Japanese invading the Philippines. The US was going to strike out across the central Pacific using its posessions of Hawaii, Midway, Wake, and Guam to drive the Pacific Fleet into Japanese waters and retake the Philippines and invade Japanese territory from there. The Japanese knew this plan already. So they did things differently, forcing the Americans to try something else.

Oddly, some miltary historicals think things would have gone much worse for the Americans if the Japanese had struck at the Philippines first, and then waited for the Americans for enact Plan Orange. The Japanese Mobile Carrier Fleet could have easily intercepted the US battleships near Guam and probably sunk them there as the US carrier fleet was outnumbered at that time, plus the US battleships are slow, giving the Japanese time to position the fleet and prehaps evade or sink the US carriers and battleships. Yamato would easily have been ready by the time the US fleet arrived, and with six plus carriers to provide air cover, could slaughter the old US battleships (none of the new battleships were in the Pacific yet and the few that existed were not up to engaging Yamato with the rest of the Imperial Japanese Navy present).

The problem the Japanese would have would be the Americans having broken their high level naval codes, and if they draw the war out for more than a year, the US will start to throw its industrial might into the war with the new battleships, cruisers, destroyers, submariens, and especially carrier forces arriving to just completely overwhelm the Japanese Navy.

I have no idea what the current model plan is against North Korea, but I imagine there are variations depending on just how the Koreans strike first. Conventional or nuclear. Directed at South Korea, Japan, or the US. Plus based on the amount (if any) support the North gets from China and/or Russia. Also the odd chance the effort becomes wider with Iran also striking out at the same time.

ganbaru · 2013-03-29, 22:23

North Korea says to enter "state of war" against South Korea: KCNA
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...92T00020130330

mangamuscle · 2013-03-29, 22:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by ganbaru

North Korea says to enter "state of war" against South Korea: KCNA
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...92T00020130330

I bet this will end being the same as the present state of war between Japan and Russia (formerly known as the USSR, formerly known as Russia).

ArchmageXin · 2013-03-29, 22:39

Quote:

Originally Posted by Qikz

Wasn't one of the main reasons behind Japan striking Pearl Harbour due to how the Americans blocked their oil supplies or something?

It was an embargo, not a blockade. And America only did it after they bombed Shanghai believe.

Sumeragi · 2013-03-29, 22:43

No, it was after (occupied) France allowed Japan to station troops in Indochina.

Ithekro · 2013-03-30, 02:35

Speaking of Japan in this context, what would be the most ideal day to strike at South Korea and the United States by North Korea?

At present I thought of taking a page from the Japanese but upping it with an additional layer. Sunday morning. Easter Sunday morning. A traditional day off plus religious holiday.

NoemiChan · 2013-03-30, 04:26

So their country's' defense organization have holidays... bets on Christmas...

killer3000ad · 2013-03-30, 05:13

I read the Norks "state of war" statement and I swear you could not speak this stuff in English and not feel embarassed. In the immortal words of Harrison Ford when working on A New Hope,"George, you can type this shit, but you sure as hell can't say it."

Some sampling of big words from reddit:
epochal; death-defying battle; vociferated; Marshal Kim Jong Un, the greatest-ever commander; golden chance to win a final victory; blitz war; occupy all areas of south Korea... at one strike; heinous confrontation maniacs, warmongers and human scum; give vent to the pent-up grudge

Vallen Chaos Valiant · 2013-03-30, 06:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ithekro

Speaking of Japan in this context, what would be the most ideal day to strike at South Korea and the United States by North Korea?

At present I thought of taking a page from the Japanese but upping it with an additional layer. Sunday morning. Easter Sunday morning. A traditional day off plus religious holiday.

It doesn't matter which day is best; North Korea would be blown up with conventional bombs either way.

I don't see any reason not to fly bombers and such. NK has being screaming about wanting to kill people regularly for weeks now, we are way pass "provoking". You can't "provoke" someone who is already frothing at the mouth.

lordblazer · 2013-03-30, 07:12

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sabaku Kyu

My personal stance on nukes is "never say never". Frankly, the reaction to this whole thing seems kind of complacent. The American military is too big. The NK weapons program is too backward...is it really that simple? NK must realize most experts believe they don't have the capability to put a nuclear payload on a missile yet the threats continue to escalate. What's the game here?

I think flying B-2 stealth bombers near the DMZ was kind of a needless provocation. It's one thing for the US to stand its ground-- that was already accomplished by continuing the joint exercises with SK as usual. But the US flies bombers and now NK says it's ready to light the fuse. If we continue to push a desperate, backwards nation into a corner, at some point it will face either making good on its threats or look incredibly weak in front of the world. I'm not sure it's worth the risk putting them in the position to make that choice if it can be avoided.

A calm, steady approach is needed. Conduct and finish the military exercises in SK with no more excessive displays of military strength. Continue to limit aid and rations. Make more efforts to convince China that NK is a serious risk to their prosperity. Impose the sanctions, but maybe increase incentives to adhere to them. However, threatening NK with a "bigger stick" (even in purely defensive manner) will probably cause things to get out of control.

Woohoo I finally get to use my master's degree in conflict analysis and resolution. Anyway having spent many years studying int'l relations, traveling the globe (even been to the DMZ).. and lived in JApan. During which N. Korea has sent missiles over the country twice. Anyway enough of credentials. Being in Africa now it's tough to care, but then I remember I have friends living in China, ROK, and Japan. So this is a serious issue.

There is a reason why the US sent those stealth bombers. IF the US doesn't show that it is actively giving ROK military support then N. Korea might actually attack. Likewise DPRK in the past during Kim's reign did this sort of brinkmanship in order to receive aid money. Of course those resources aren't distributed justly. HEre you have it a country that's been in crisis. Surrounded by four prospering countries in a region of the world that has the highest volume and density of int'l trade & development. If Seoul is attacked a major global financial capital. It'll definitely hurt the global economy. This hurts the current status quo of int'l trade in the region & world.

It won't get worse, and N. Korea isn't going to do anything not with the US military. Also the US military isn't too big, and is no where near stretching itself thin. They have even reduced the number of needed personnel. What makes the US military effective is its speed & quick response to any crisis globally. No other country at the moment has this. And yea, there are plenty of countries with blue navies and bases everywhere. Anyway I'm not arguing against anything you have stated. I just wanted to add more depth to it while still keeping it pretty general. Anyway with new leadership in N. Korea now a Real Politik approach is definitely needed. Diplomacy is great, but that process is long and indirect. And there isn't enough time for grassroot peacemaking (likewise the DPRK gov't doesn't even tolerate having Americans and ROK citizens in their country without assigning them a minder though my Aussie friend who lives in Shanghai has been to Pyongyang twice and has had the same minder I believe). I think a few people have been able to do work in DPRK that's peacemaking. When I say peacemaking work I mean in development, human development, medical care, etc. It doesn't happen in DPRK on a big enough scale to make a difference. Sooo yeaa a strong approach is needed to humble that fat spoiled kid who just took over. A deal definitely needs to be made, but only if DPRK is willing to integrate into the current neoliberal economic world order.

2013-03-29, 13:43	Link #501
Sabaku Kyu The Ironman Join Date: Sep 2006	My personal stance on nukes is "never say never". Frankly, the reaction to this whole thing seems kind of complacent. The American military is too big. The NK weapons program is too backward...is it really that simple? NK must realize most experts believe they don't have the capability to put a nuclear payload on a missile yet the threats continue to escalate. What's the game here? I think flying B-2 stealth bombers near the DMZ was kind of a needless provocation. It's one thing for the US to stand its ground-- that was already accomplished by continuing the joint exercises with SK as usual. But the US flies bombers and now NK says it's ready to light the fuse. If we continue to push a desperate, backwards nation into a corner, at some point it will face either making good on its threats or look incredibly weak in front of the world. I'm not sure it's worth the risk putting them in the position to make that choice if it can be avoided. A calm, steady approach is needed. Conduct and finish the military exercises in SK with no more excessive displays of military strength. Continue to limit aid and rations. Make more efforts to convince China that NK is a serious risk to their prosperity. Impose the sanctions, but maybe increase incentives to adhere to them. However, threatening NK with a "bigger stick" (even in purely defensive manner) will probably cause things to get out of control. __________________

2013-03-29, 14:17	Link #502
Ithekro Gamilas Falls Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Republic of California Age: 46	Unless the idea is to push them into the corner to strike first. It was sort of the idea people have about how the Japanese struck at the Americans at Pearl Harbor after being backed into a corner by the Americans over the Japanese invasion of China. __________________

2013-03-29, 18:16	Link #506
Ithekro Gamilas Falls Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Republic of California Age: 46	Trade embargo on oil due to the Japanese invasion of China (threatened US interests there). Thus the Japanese needed oil to fuel their ships, airplanes, and other things to progress in China. They tried the Soviets first and after a few battles decided that wasn't a good idea. That left Indonesia. But the then US Territory of the Philippines was between Japan and Indonesia (the Dutch East Indies)...plus the Dutch and British wouldn't be happy about it anyway, and the Americans wouldn't like it either. So do something daring, strike the recently redeployed Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor (they'd only been there a year or two in full force). A large blow was hoped to bring the Americans to the table to keep them from interfering with the Japanese, plus take out the major striking force of the US Pacific Fleet (including he carriers). But the Japanese miscalculated. Americans don't care for sneak attacks (it kind of pisses them off). The Japanese typist for the Ultimatum was slow as molassas (though that was still not a declaration of war, so the "sneak attack" would still be a sneak attack even if they US had an hour to prepare.) And they missed the US carriers (primary targets), while also not hitting the US oil storage tanks or submarine docks at Pearl. All those things came to bit them within a year. What the North Koreans do will probably also be discussed in history books (the mistakes they made most likely), if they actaully try something. __________________

2013-03-29, 19:27	Link #511
Ithekro Gamilas Falls Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Republic of California Age: 46	US Plan Orange (the US plans for combating Japan) was based around the Japanese invading the Philippines. The US was going to strike out across the central Pacific using its posessions of Hawaii, Midway, Wake, and Guam to drive the Pacific Fleet into Japanese waters and retake the Philippines and invade Japanese territory from there. The Japanese knew this plan already. So they did things differently, forcing the Americans to try something else. Oddly, some miltary historicals think things would have gone much worse for the Americans if the Japanese had struck at the Philippines first, and then waited for the Americans for enact Plan Orange. The Japanese Mobile Carrier Fleet could have easily intercepted the US battleships near Guam and probably sunk them there as the US carrier fleet was outnumbered at that time, plus the US battleships are slow, giving the Japanese time to position the fleet and prehaps evade or sink the US carriers and battleships. Yamato would easily have been ready by the time the US fleet arrived, and with six plus carriers to provide air cover, could slaughter the old US battleships (none of the new battleships were in the Pacific yet and the few that existed were not up to engaging Yamato with the rest of the Imperial Japanese Navy present). The problem the Japanese would have would be the Americans having broken their high level naval codes, and if they draw the war out for more than a year, the US will start to throw its industrial might into the war with the new battleships, cruisers, destroyers, submariens, and especially carrier forces arriving to just completely overwhelm the Japanese Navy. I have no idea what the current model plan is against North Korea, but I imagine there are variations depending on just how the Koreans strike first. Conventional or nuclear. Directed at South Korea, Japan, or the US. Plus based on the amount (if any) support the North gets from China and/or Russia. Also the odd chance the effort becomes wider with Iran also striking out at the same time. __________________

2013-03-29, 22:23	Link #512
ganbaru books-eater youkai Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Betweem wisdom and insanity	North Korea says to enter "state of war" against South Korea: KCNA http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...92T00020130330 __________________

2013-03-29, 16:43	Link #503
mangamuscle formerly ogon bat Join Date: May 2011 Location: Mexico Age: 53

2013-03-29, 17:36	Link #504
KiraYamatoFan Banned Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Montreal, QC, Canada Age: 40	I don't see why we should feel outraged with those B-2s appearing in the picture and call that provocation when NK already got away too many times with bloody murder. Yes, you get it right: BLOODY MURDER! The cold hard truth may be too much to take for a 28-year-old fat walrus, but judgement day is coming for him, and it is about time he pays and goes down the same way as Milosevic (Boy! I hated this man's guts back then) if not as Ceaucescu.

2013-03-29, 22:43	Link #515
Sumeragi Banned Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: Dai Korai Teikoku	No, it was after (occupied) France allowed Japan to station troops in Indochina.

2013-03-30, 02:35	Link #516
Ithekro Gamilas Falls Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Republic of California Age: 46	Speaking of Japan in this context, what would be the most ideal day to strike at South Korea and the United States by North Korea? At present I thought of taking a page from the Japanese but upping it with an additional layer. Sunday morning. Easter Sunday morning. A traditional day off plus religious holiday. __________________

2013-03-30, 04:26	Link #517
NoemiChan Banned Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: Philippines Age: 36	So their country's' defense organization have holidays... bets on Christmas...

2013-03-30, 05:13	Link #518
killer3000ad Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Australia Age: 41	I read the Norks "state of war" statement and I swear you could not speak this stuff in English and not feel embarassed. In the immortal words of Harrison Ford when working on A New Hope,"George, you can type this shit, but you sure as hell can't say it." Some sampling of big words from reddit: epochal; death-defying battle; vociferated; Marshal Kim Jong Un, the greatest-ever commander; golden chance to win a final victory; blitz war; occupy all areas of south Korea... at one strike; heinous confrontation maniacs, warmongers and human scum; give vent to the pent-up grudge __________________