Ukrainian Conflict

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Roger Rambo

...Jesus Christ.

I'd thought that if they were going to go for the corrupt route, they'd at least hide it but...holy shit.

It's the fact that Putin isn't hiding it that causes concerns. If Putin really think he can't be opposed, we have no idea what he would be doing next. He no longer even pay lip service to basic international etiquette, that's the kind of man who can follow up with even wilder ambitions.

Let's just say Poland is no longer safe. Far-fetched? This Putin, right now, is capable of anything.

[risingstar3110]

I think Putin or whoever behind this was not stupid.

A bit similar to how North Korean leader always get 99% of the votes. This election was never meant to show their resolve of separatism (from Ukraine) on national or international level. As we all see, even if a fair election was hold out, the fact that the countries are filled with masked men and Russian soldiers will invalidate it anyway. However it will give an assurances to those who always believe in, or have soft spot in joining Russia in the first place. They won't even need the resolve to fight on the front line, just the public support, and the Russia will do the rests of the fighting if needed.

Think like.... if you really like cake, despite your mate kept telling you to stop. Then research (with a bit of media control) showed that 80% of your national population eat at least a piece of cake a day, and cake company will responsible for any customers. Will you actually look closely trying to see whether the research dodgy or not, or it simply that will validate your doubt over eating cake?


Edit: Or could be just like what Vallen said. If you doubt Putin power to pull a rabbit out of the hat. He will take your rabbit, your hat, and pull that trick right in front of you

[LeoXiao]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

Let's just say Poland is no longer safe. Far-fetched? This Putin, right now, is capable of anything.

I agree that Putin wants to look like he can do anything, but yes, Poland is far-fetched, because anyone who attacks a NATO member state gets Leopard 2s and Abrams in their face if they're lucky, Trident missiles if they're not.

I've come to increasingly suspect that the Russian's are taking these measures cause they're not confident in referendum passing fairly. The Russian's may be the dominant ethnic group, but that's still only 58% of the population. That leaves 42% who are nonethnic. Seems fairly clear cut...if you assume uniform consensus on the part of the Russians. If the ethnic Ukranians/Tartars remain consistent in not wanting to join Russia, and you get some spillover from ethnic Russians, it's entirely possible that a "fair" vote to join Russia might fail.'

Russia is clearly taking preemptive steps to make sure the vote goes the right way regardless. It'd also explain the pro-nationalist activists on the ground being so damned spooked by by any protests against the Russians, or foreign news crews.

This is also possible. Why take chances with pretending to play fair when you can get away with not playing fair?

[Der Langrisser]

Russia holds war games near Ukraine; Merkel warns of catastrophe
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A1Q1E820140313

[Haak]

Originally Posted by Roger Rambo

I've come to increasingly suspect that the Russian's are taking these measures cause they're not confident in referendum passing fairly. The Russian's may be the dominant ethnic group, but that's still only 58% of the population. That leaves 42% who are nonethnic.

Also bear in mind that census is over a decade old. So I don't think anyone could really know whether enough of the Crimean population actually want to be a part of Russia. And it's perfectly reasonable to doubt judging from the numbers the last time someone bothered to check. So yeah no one really knows (and we probably never will).

[JMvS]

Not on the conflict itself, but an intersting card:

Chevron to start shale gas production in Ukraine by end-2014

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by LeoXiao

I agree that Putin wants to look like he can do anything, but yes, Poland is far-fetched, because anyone who attacks a NATO member state gets Leopard 2s and Abrams in their face if they're lucky, Trident missiles if they're not.

If I go back in time and told you everything Putin has done to Ukraine in the last month, you would tell me it is far-fetched too.

Wars happen. And often the decision to make war isn't a rational one.

[maplehurry]

Originally Posted by LeoXiao

I agree that Putin wants to look like he can do anything, but yes, Poland is far-fetched, because anyone who attacks a NATO member state gets Leopard 2s and Abrams in their face if they're lucky, Trident missiles if they're not.

Putin can always play the denial card. "No, i never attack anyone, it's just civil war they are having."

Originally Posted by Haak

And it's perfectly reasonable to doubt judging from the numbers the last time someone bothered to check. So yeah no one really knows (and we probably never will).

That's a huge increase over 3 years. Isn't that after Yanukovych's (pro-Russian language) been voted into office?

[Ithekro]

Putin would just want a piece of Podlaskie and Warmian-Masurian to connect with Kaliningrad Oblast.....

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

Putin would just want a piece of Podlaskie and Warmian-Masurian to connect with Kaliningrad Oblast.....

I wish we know what any Russian leader "just wanted" through out Russian history. Putin isn't acting the way anyone had predicted. So it is hard to guess what he would or wouldn't do in the near future.

[risingstar3110]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

I wish we know what any Russian leader "just wanted" through out Russian history. Putin isn't acting the way anyone had predicted. So it is hard to guess what he would or wouldn't do in the near future.

Ukraine has always within Russian geopolitical influence so many has suspected this to happen, just thought to be a lots more subtle. Even the issue about Crimea joining or annexed by Russia under pretext of Russian-speaking population was raised since 2008. It's not as unexpected as the news say (they tends to overblow eveything)


EU will only has 7-8 months to win an decisive story before the winter kick in again. So i suspect Russia will step down from this and try to stall things through diplomatic till near the end of the year. Recognise Crimea independence but withdraw half of the troops for example (of course still station large amount of troops to deter Ukraine from forcefully take back Crimea). Then buy China's backing and this would disappear from the news until October. Either that or what i suspected since the start. EU and Russia will agree on the elections, but have to include a significant number of pro-Russia within the new government (with Russian buy votes and EU turns blind eyes). Also Crimea still hold it autonomy

If Russia goes desperate however, things could escalate fast and get out of hands. There will be news about Ukraine forces attacks Crimea stationary self defence force (either false flag or through provoking), and then Russia will steps in to sweep through the country to Kiev. They will install a new government, remove opponents through political assassinate, and then repeat what current government do, promise a new election under EU supervision, but now the Russia have the upper hand. This could happen after the coming election however, as the Russia can contact and promise backing to those who lose out the current election

[LeoXiao]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

If I go back in time and told you everything Putin has done to Ukraine in the last month, you would tell me it is far-fetched too.

Actually I was wondering if Russia would take the chance to swallow Ukraine again.

Wars happen. And often the decision to make war isn't a rational one.

Well of course. Far-fetched things aren't impossible, they're just unlikely. In my estimation, since Putin has no nationalist reason to encroach on Poland, and since it is a state allied with not one but three nuclear-armed powers, as well as a few more countries that have potential military control over nuclear weapons, Russia is highly unlikely to mess with it.

[risingstar3110]

Originally Posted by LeoXiao

Actually I was wondering if Russia would take the chance to swallow Ukraine again.

Well of course. Far-fetched things aren't impossible, they're just unlikely. In my estimation, since Putin has no nationalist reason to encroach on Poland, and since it is a state allied with not one but three nuclear-armed powers, as well as a few more countries that have potential military control over nuclear weapons, Russia is highly unlikely to mess with it.

Poland also don't quite have the strategic position like Ukraine to Russian security, so it's very unlikely. And if you look at it, Russian military strategy was to set on protect its regional security interest, rather than for outward military invasion. That strategy further was indicated during war with Chechnya and Georgia. So Poland still fairly safe at very least for next two decades

[Ithekro]

Poland really doesn't want to be the battleground again. Their plains are just too perfect for a land war and tanks. But then so is Ukraine.

[AnimeFan188]

Ukraine may have to go nuclear, says Kiev lawmaker:

"Ukraine may have to arm itself with nuclear weapons if the United States and other
world powers refuse to enforce a security pact that obligates them to reverse the
Moscow-backed takeover of Crimea, a member of the Ukraine parliament told USA
TODAY."

See:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...clear/6250815/



=======================================


Moldova Sees Contagion in Russian Intervention in Crimea:

"Moldovan Prime Minister Iurie Leanca said Russia’s incursion into Crimea, an
autonomous province of Ukraine, could be replicated in other countries in the
region."

See:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...in-crimea.html





If the FUSSR states start trying to acquire nukes to avoid the fate of Georgia &
the Ukraine, this could get VERY ugly indeed.

[Der Langrisser]

Media squeeze tightens as Russia harks back to WW2
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A2D08C20140314

CEOs of biggest Russian firms could be hit by sanctions: paper
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A1Q1E820140314

[Sackett]

Originally Posted by LeoXiao

I agree that Putin wants to look like he can do anything, but yes, Poland is far-fetched, because anyone who attacks a NATO member state gets Leopard 2s and Abrams in their face if they're lucky, Trident missiles if they're not.

Not so sure of that. Putin has been holding military exercises in the Baltic, and making noises about the need to protect Russian ethnics, and granting Russian citizenship to Russians in the Baltic. The Baltic states are also NATO members.

Yes, Poland is a bit further, but then Russia has partitioned Poland how many times in the past?

Poles are Slavs, and Russia has historically claimed the right to "protect" Slavs, just as it is now claiming the right to protect ethnic Russians.

Originally Posted by risingstar3110

Poland also don't quite have the strategic position like Ukraine to Russian security, so it's very unlikely. And if you look at it, Russian military strategy was to set on protect its regional security interest, rather than for outward military invasion. That strategy further was indicated during war with Chechnya and Georgia. So Poland still fairly safe at very least for next two decades

Except this is always Russia's justification. They don't have a naturally defensible border, so they have to control the states around their border as a buffer. Then those buffer states become territory they have to protect, so they need more buffer states, and they just keep on going.

When are they going to feel safe? Once they reach the Danube?

Granted, Poland does not seem to be on the menu today. But 8 years ago Ukraine did not seem to be on the menu.

To me the disturbing thing is the rising threats against eastern Ukraine counties. The Crimea is arguably a special case:

Strategically it has Russia's main Black Sea port.
Historically it was part of Russia proper until "recently" (1950s).
Demographically it is majority Russian.

Now I don't accept these excuses, but at least you could argue that Crimea is a special case, and Russia will be satisfied with that.

I'm noticing disturbing similarities to the Sudetenland. It was majority German, and so it was granted to Germany when Hitler was threatening war, and surrendered peacefully (thus striping Czechoslovakia of its natural defenses). "Peace In Our Time." Then Hitler just seized the rest of Czech. Why? Because he could. The population was not majority German.

Eastern Ukarine is not majority Russian. It has high levels of Russian ethnics, but no more then Latvia, or Estonia.

If Russia seizes Eastern Ukarine then we know that the motivation is not just Russian nationalism as has been Putin's fig leaf so far. It's just greed.

Eastern Ukarine has gas deposits. So obviously Putin wants to appropriate them for himself instead for letting Ukraine develop them.

Who was next on the menu for Hitler after Czech? Oh right, Poland. I'd be getting very concerned if I was Polish. (And I'd be looking into getting some nukes).

The most frustrating thing about this is that the argument that a prosperous Western influenced Ukraine is a threat to Russia is nonsense. It would be a benefit to Russia. Ukraine is so close to Russia in geography and culture that it will always be under Russian influence, no matter how "Western" it becomes.

Does the United States worry about Canadian prosperity? Canadian power and influence only improves the US position in the world. Perhaps even more so when Canada has been at odds with the US diplomatically, because then nations can approach Canada as a go between.

China has a large outsized influence in Canada (not so much now, but more so when the Liberals were in charge). Does that cause the US to invade Canada? Russia should have more confidence in itself. It doesn't need to invade Ukraine to keep Ukraine on her side. Ukraine will naturally continue to be in the Russian sphere of influence.

Besides which, "the West" and Russia are natural geopolitical allies. China is the natural geopolitical threat to Russia. Russia ought to want a mediator with the West as a hedge against a breakdown in their current good relations with China. Ukraine is naturally positioned to be that mediator.

No, the problem is that if Ukraine becomes prosperous and Western, then people in Russia might start wondering "why don't we have it that good?" This isn't about protecting Russian interests. This is about protecting Putin's interests.

[risingstar3110]

Originally Posted by Sackett

Not so sure of that. Putin has been holding military exercises in the Baltic, and making noises about the need to protect Russian ethnics, and granting Russian citizenship to Russians in the Baltic. The Baltic states are also NATO members.

Yes, Poland is a bit further, but then Russia has partitioned Poland how many times in the past?

Poles are Slavs, and Russia has historically claimed the right to "protect" Slavs, just as it is now claiming the right to protect ethnic Russians.



Except this is always Russia's justification. They don't have a naturally defensible border, so they have to control the states around their border as a buffer. Then those buffer states become territory they have to protect, so they need more buffer states, and they just keep on going.

When are they going to feel safe? Once they reach the Danube?

No, the problem is that if Ukraine becomes prosperous and Western, then people in Russia might start wondering "why don't we have it that good?" This isn't about protecting Russian interests. This is about protecting Putin's interests.

You can't assimilate the situation without looking at case by case basis. It's like saying the British bombing Iraq, and then they will bomb German next , because that is what happened in WW2, or they will bomb Saudi next because they are all human right violating Middle Easterners (in oppose to Ukraine and Poland to be both Eastern Europe).


I'm not saying that Russia will never invade Poland ever again, but the situation will be entirely different then with what is happening in Ukraine. Geopolitical between the two for example, Poland have no thing similar to Carpathian Mountains to shield Russia from Western invasion. In fact its flat land toward the West will make them even more vulnerable for military invasion. Poland also unlike Ukraine, for its history was never part of Russian identity in the first place. Most important, Poland's currently a member of the European Union and, and it will take a dissolve of EU, before Russia think about invading one of its member.


On your last point, it's a dangerous thought to think that joining Western influence is Ukraine's sure way to prosperity. As I mentioned in this thread. Ukraine holds up to 10% of European Union population, but only have GDP equivalent of 2%. Its GDP per capital is just 20% of the EU average, and just 50% of EU's lowest member. Taking Ukraine in will be like allowing Colombia to be one of American states and gives Colombia people full right and citizenships (that is 48 millions people with average GDP of 11k). Or suddenly having another 100 cities like Detroit, but half as poor, popping up in the same time within America

Personally i don't think Ukraine will join EU any time soon, if ever at all. Especially when big EU players like France and German already tired with the financial support demand from its current member. Even German Chancellor expressed that Poland's initiative to invite Ukraine (which does not guaranteer membership) was a mistake, and that Ukrainie may have to take in IMF loan rather than EU financial support to pay its debt. Yes I'm talking about a fake promise here that may (possibly) see a bitter Ukraine coup to favour pro-Russia in near future

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Wars are unlikely, until they happen; then suddenly it became inevitable, and then historians with 100% Hindsight retroactively declare how obvious it was that country A attacked country B.

We are not saying Putin would invade Poland because of past Russian actions; we are saying you CAN'T claim it is out of the question. Because every time there is an invasion, no one ever expect it. And then just like what you did with Ukraine, everyone retroactively act like it was bindingly obvious.

Predicting when a country would go to war, had been very very difficult, and always will be. Just because Hindsight could justify everything, doesn't change the fact that foresight is limited and rarely right.

[GreyZone]

I wonder if anyone mentioned this yet:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor