Anime Saimoe Tournament 2011 (Japan)

[zato_1one]

Originally Posted by ando

FYI, according to the management thread, they are planning the re-drawing after the first rounds, though it is under discussion.

Why do they want to re-draw?

[Kyuu]

Holy crap. It has been 10 years of Saimoe tears. How time flew.

Originally Posted by Zeto

Why do they want to re-draw?

Oh hell no. Are you kidding? Granted, they actually have time. If the reason is a balance issue... um... that could be fine. But this is a problem of drawn brackets, which is a lot less objective than bracket assignments by seeding.

[anisu]

FYI, according to the management thread, they are planning the re-drawing after the first rounds, though it is under discussion.

Lame. Why would they do that? It's not like there's anything unusually bad about the draw we got, and fixed brackets are more organized. Imagine a graphical chart of all the re-randomized matchups. It would be a huge mess. Unless it's because of someone trying to manipulate the draw, what would we gain from it?

As for formats, a round robin would be too lengthy, and single elimination makes each match more serious. I wouldn't change anything except maybe seeding preliminary winners or ensuring characters from the same show are spread out in different groups.

[Ithekro]

Well there was the 2006 model, were the entire SOS-dan was in the same group. Than there is the 2008 model with the Lucky Star and Clannad girls almost entirely spread out (Saki has similar spreads, but with so many girls there would be match ups)

[ando]

Originally Posted by anisu

Lame. Why would they do that? It's not like there's anything unusually bad about the draw we got, and fixed brackets are more organized. Imagine a graphical chart of all the re-randomized matchups. It would be a huge mess. Unless it's because of someone trying to manipulate the draw, what would we gain from it?

AFAIK, it would be re-randomized within the blocks, but who knows.

[wontaek]

Originally Posted by Kyuu

Oh, those MIO tears!

It'd be like this.
http://flashyloops.eastofosaka.net/mioqq/
With Ika tentacles everywhere.

What I was thinking was much more NSFW

Originally Posted by Ichuki

Oh yea that'll be bit of a burden ^^;; but I think if J-Saimoe changed up the format I think it should of been like Korean Saimoe or maybe put the girls in certain tiers groups then when they reach to finals the final people can be decided via AST fashion or is that one too unfair as well?

ALL AST has to do is use the prelim vote received number for each candidates to assign seeds and then redistribute the characters by the seed number instead of random draw for the first 192 seed characters.. I wonder if they would be willing to give up the random draw, though. If they want random draw, more complicated format has to be used.

[zato_1one]

I don't see any reasons to re-draw if they still use the same randomize method. If the result is not what they like then why bother drawing it in the first place. Rather than re-drawing until they get satisfied, why don't just place their favorite characters in the advantage position and announce that it is from the draw?

[Team Rocket Elite]

Redraw? I kinda like the bracket how it is. A redraw wouldn't fix the existing lopsided round 1 matches. Outside of Block B and Round 1 in general, the blocks actually look more balanced than usual for a Saimoe bracket. A lot of the heavy hitters don't seem to meet until Round 3 or later. Block B is a bit weak but looks to be quite competitive in terms of who can come out of the block.

Assuming the bracket doesn't get reshuffled, here are my predictions for the block winners:

Spoiler for Block Winner Predictions:

Akemi Homura
She already beat Misaka directly in preliminary group 3 and Victorique couldn't even beat Sayaka. Assassination is always possible but Homura is definitely the favourite.

Kotobuki Tsumugi
An absolute mess of a block. I actually have Kanade as second strongest and she faces Tsumugi in Round 1! I could see Lingyin, Sora, Gertrud, Merry, Riko, Erica, Ryuushi and some others possibly winning this as well.

Kaname Madoka
Is there anyone strong enough to even try to assassinate her?

Ika Musume
She did a great job beating Misaka in preliminaries and didn't look too bad compared to Homura. If Homura is as strong as she looks, Ika Musume also looks to be a powerhouse. Also if Misaka couldn't beat her, I can't see 10032 or Last Order doing it either.

Touwa Erio
She made a strong run at Tomoe Mami so I can see her beating Sayaka. She had the highest vote count outside of Madoka characters.

Tomoe Mami
Mami and Shana will meet in the block finals and Mami will win. Madoka characters are just too strong. Maybe season 3 will rescue Shana.

Kousaka Kirino
Kirino vs Kyouko in the block final. At this point 3 or even 4 Madoka characters may have made the Top 8. I think Kirino can pull off the win if that happens.

Kuroneko (Gokou Ruri)
Kuroneko vs Aria is also going to be a block final. Sherlock in round 1 may be a problem but I think Kuroneko can win. If she does, I think she can get past Aria as well.

[OverFunk]

Block finals are well into October if the current calendar is right (i.e. they don't rush shit). So yeah, Shana got a shot. But Nano and Nako are her midbosses before that.

[RJ TAYLER]

Good to see that a 'stayer' is first up in the running of this year's main race! Now fine fillies fight well and fair?!

[ahelo]

Thoughts:
Block A: Mikoto will assasinate Homura, beat Victorique and have a block final with Kurisu in which Mikoto will win.
Block B: Mugi will beat Kanade, but will be beaten by Sora who will become the champion of Block B.
Block C: May our goddess obliterate this group of fodders.
Block D: Ika-chan will beat Mio convincingly and eventually become the block winner.
Block E: Sayaka will beat Uiharu and Saten in round 2, have a close match with Erio (If she doesn't get booted out in round 1 with her mom in which Char will replace her), but will be beaten by Ohana who breezed through the other side of the block (yes, even Azunyan).
Block F: Nano and Nako will ensure Shana does not get close to the final, and if she does, she will only be butthurt by Mami.
Block G: Index will become a sniper and assasinate Kirino, in which after Kyouko will win the block.
Block H: It will be an easy breeze for Gokou-san except for Round 1, assuming that in the final, Aria fails expectations in which she probably will.

Block Winners (imo)
A: Mikoto
B: Sora
C: Madoka
D: Ika-Musume
E: Ohana
F: Mami
G: Kyouko
H: Kuroneko

Blcok Winners (Rationally speaking)
A: Homura
B: Sora/Mugi
C: Madoka
D: Ika-Musume
E: Sayaka
F: Mami
G: Kirino
H: Kuroneko

[Eisdrache]

Shana will headbutt Mami while Sora obliterates Mugi. Don't underestimate Azusa although Ohana might win this just because her series is airing. Potential snipe by Char. Aria doesn't hold a candle against Kuroneko while Kanade wins group B. Ika will roll over Mio while Haqua wins Saimoe.

[ahelo]

Originally Posted by Eisdrache

Haqua wins Saimoe.

No Kuronuma Sawako will win this year's Saimoe.

[FlavorOfLife]

Originally Posted by timbits

this might be good, as we don't have enough rage inducing matchups yet.

You know, thats very true. Some big rage matchups would be good for the contest. As of now, there's not many big guns vs big guns other than Homura and Makoto and since a lot of series have faded (K-ON, AB, etc)

[Coldlight]

My mix of relatively unimportant thoughts, opinions, intentions, fears and wishes regarding the Draw results:

-Sparks will fly and blood will be shed with Homura vs Mikoto, and the thought of the fate of their forgotten third opponent brings back horrible memories of the bus incidents of the past. She will definitely be thrown under the bus in that match. The loss of either Homura or Mikoto will be a big blow for their respective factions. Rooting for Homura to survive her first great challenge. I also have Mayuri to support on the other side.

-Normally, I would have been happy with Kanade in block B, but with AB!'s clear loss of strength following their underwhelming performance last year, I am already worried about her. If she gets past Tsumugi, there may still be faint hope for AB! yet. Although beyond Tsumugi, many of the other contenders aren't pushovers either. I will support Kanade, of course.

-Madoka is in a good position to dominate block C, even with a number of potential assassins from the other side. She's out of effective sniping range, and may yet prove to be bulletproof against those that can reach her there.

-Ika vs Mio on block D is an interesting match, Lynette could end up under the bus. Supporting Last Order on the other side.

-Sayaka's block E is filled with dangerous opponents, starting on her side with a possible challenge from Team Index II. Among the strongest of the other contenders on that side are Erio and Charlotte, the front runners for their respective factions, but fortunately, she may face only one. Meme could get bused in that match. Yui H. can't be safely ignored either. Ohana and returning champ Azusa are two of the most dangerous on the other side. Sayaka gets my support, naturally.

-I'd like to support Mikan in block F, though she will face Mami as early as round 2 and likely lose to her. The veteran Shana is arguably the most powerful contender on the other side.

-Tough luck for Yuri again in round 1. Supporting my one and only Yui for block G left side, fortunately she can only face either Index or Kirino and not both there, provided she survives to round 3 as AB! is looking especially vulnerable this year. Kyouko is likely to come out on top on the right side of the block.

-Kuroneko all the way for block H. I would have wanted to support Asuha as well, though.

I have no comments about the strengths of Nichijou, Yosuga, Milky Holmes, Hidan and TWGOK2 characters, among others, since I haven't seen their shows yet. Of course, if a redraw happens after round 1 most of these comments of mine will be quickly invalidated.

[Aya Reiko]

Sora has no hope of beating Mugi. She might not even beat Tsukasa.

[OverFunk]

Why Mami can beat Shana:

06: lost to someone with memetic baggage
07: lost to a blonde girl
08: lost to a girl with combat abilities
10: lost to a girl with STONKIN GREAT TITS.

[Akemi Homura]

I know there aren't any rage-inducing matches, but please, please no redraw...
Anyway, Homura should be able to beat Mikoto, although you definitely can't rule out the possibility of getting sniped (very) early on.

Originally Posted by Aya Reiko

Round 1 Dates added. Can't go beyond that since they don't even have the schedule beyond August up.

Really? Both this chart and this chart seem to have all of the dates filled in, though.

[Marisa Kirisame]

Originally Posted by OverFunk

Why Mami can beat Shana:

06: lost to someone with memetic baggage
07: lost to a blonde girl
08: lost to a girl with combat abilities
10: lost to a girl with STONKIN GREAT TITS.

Best thing I've read in a while.

[TnAdct1]

Originally Posted by Akemi Homura

Really? Both this chart and this chart seem to have all of the dates filled in, though.

The source of the schedule can be found here.